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Crude-oil

Crude Oil Ka-BoingNice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon. Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of weeks. So... expecting a consolidation range fighting between bears and bulls between 70-80; while leaning towards a bullish breakout much later... perhaps (ideally) after higher low. Do note that in alignment to the earlier post about the USD dropping, it does look like Crude now has a better chance of turning around to reinstate its bullish efforts.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
CRUDE to bounce a bit, if at all, else dive hardBased on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded... 1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead; 2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12. Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens. 3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish. 4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory. Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil - Why i am BearishThere are several aspects that I am bearish on this chart. First of all, we have a huge GAP on daily that must be closed soon. Secondly, Wednesday's stock data came below those of the market, so the crude oil stock is higher than the estimates, which is very bad because they have already reduced production by 1.5mln/day, which means that unless they . had reduced production, now the price of Crude Oil would have been between 50-60 usd/barrel. Now the graph shows us a close below the resistance zone, which at least for a short time, I will have a SHORT position. Also, look at the RSI , its over bought and we need a corection of price to create more demand.
TVC:USOILShort
by sfc95
CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPsideJsut reviewing Crude, especially in light of the recent major gap up last week after OPEC decided to cut output... Orientate to the weekly chart shows the TD Setup displayed and the Sell Setup (green box early 2022) and Buy Setup (red box mid 2022). These set the TDST, and the support is at 66.12, being the lowest point of the Sell Setup. Noted that the Buy Setup did not close below the TDST, and so noted that the long term (weeks) primary trend is bullish. Price action however, decided to test the TDST in March 2023 and bounced off. This is a bullish sign and was an expected bounce point (trade taken and exited btw, shared in earlier analysis). This bounce off was followed through by a nice gap up and a Sell Setup (bullish) restarted. Noted also that 123.68 is the TDST, which is a little far for the next two weeks, with the exception of an anomaly of very severe events happening, it is unlikely to break that level any time soon. Nonetheless, there are ranges to watch... the yellow, red, and green boxes denote these. The yellow box is the major range which Crude is ranging and needs to break out of. Expected to as the break back in a few weeks ago suggests that a breakout is in the cards. You see, when a breakdown is reversed and price breaks back into a range, it tends to go out the other side later. For now, the gap up represents a gap range that is likely to be tested to close the gap. However, price action, and other technical indicators like the MACD and VolDov are suggesting that the attempt to close the gap would be short lived. For this, a smaller time frame analysis marked out the green box for a probably bounce off support level in the likely to fail close the gap attempt, at about 77.5 to 78. Shorter term is likely to see a stall up to 82ish. Long term, bullish, but a shallow retracement and then reversal upside should be in play...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market. OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision. Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022. Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4% OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low). Conclusion In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted. So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
NYMEX:BB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
usoil 8h chart buy low after pullback tp 85 usd/bbl🔸Today let's review the 8 hour chart for crude oil . Previous setup was invalidated due to the unexpected OPEC production cuts. Right now technical outlook flipped to bullish. 🔸Price gapped higher almost 10% after the OPEC production cuts were announced. Bulls hit the strong overhead resistance at 82 USD/bbl and right now I'm expecting a short-term pullback and re-test of the key s/r bulls below market price. 🔸Recommended strategy for crude oil traders: expecting short-term pullback and therefore the recommended strategy for bulls is to buy low after we re-test the key s/r price levels at 72/73 usd bbl. stop below recent market lows and TP1 is 80 USD/bbl and TP2 is 85 usd/bbl. This is a swing trade setup, so may take a while. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
WTI CRUDE OIL Best sell position inside this 8 month patternWTI Crude Oil is approaching Resistance (1) at 83.50 after OPEC cuts. The MA200 (1d) is almost there at 83.97 and has been untouched since August 30th. The pattern is a Channel Up and its top is only a little over Resistance (1). Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as the above three levels form the strongest Resistance Zone possible. Targets: 1. 67.00 initially (Support 1). Tips: 1. RSI (1d) is under a Rising Support. It is not quite there yet but the very first sign of sideways trading would be an indication of forming a top. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ). It was a calculated risk and probability count. USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering. A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call). From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs. Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%). All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover. Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
AMEX:USOLong
by Auguraltrader
WTI CRUDE OIL: Found Support on the 1W MA200.WTI Crude Oil has been on a long term downtrend since March 2022 and the heights of the Russian/Ukraine war. The 1W time frame technically turned bearish (RSI = 39.105, MACD = -5.090, ADX = 26.852) but the price just entered the S1 Zone, while making contact with the 1W MA200 for the first time since February 2021. This is a heavy Support Zone and the fact that last week's candle closed over the 1W MA200, amplifies it. Target a little under the 1D MA50 (TP = 75.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
2
ukoil 8h chart broke down 15% correction warningUKOIL 8hour chart review/outlook. Broke key s/r recently so expecting weakness next 4-8 weeks. Previously compression intro triangle pattern and sequence of higher lows was invalidated recently with break of 83.50 USD. sequence of higher lows at 76.50 and 79.85, but broke down with recent sell side pressure mounting due to US banking crisis. Based on measured move price projection bears will target 69.50 USD, so this is a 15% correction off the base of the triangle patter setup. Recommended strategy: short sell rips/rallies and exit final TP at 69.50 on sell side. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
20
WTI bearish breakout coming soon?We're seeing an ascending support line hold prices just above the 72.72 support level. If price were to break this support level along with the ascending support line, we could see a big drop to major multi-swing low support at 61.97. It's worth noting that there's a bearish ichimoku cloud that is pushing prices lower too with its bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Rockqet
easyMarkets WTI Oil Daily - Quick Technical OverviewWTI Oil continues to move sideways. We need a clear breakout through one of our levels in order to consider the next short-term directional move. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
by easyMarkets
Range Trading Light Crude Oil-Crude oil is currently trading in a ranging market environment between 83.34 and 70.08 (larger range). Price is also in a smaller range between 82.66 and 72.46 (smaller range). -From how I see the markets, the 10AM Feb 23 candle was a retest of a fair value gap before a move higher continues aiming between 79.73 and 81.50 price levels. I would like to see the fair value gap left open and not rebalanced completely. -Bias: Bullish (within the ranges outlined only) -Why? Some buyside liquidity will likely be rebalanced with a possible sweep to the upside to test the 83.00 level. -Targets: 79.73-81.5, possibly up to 82.66 for a sweep.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DenisRisticFX
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil. On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63 In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03 Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial