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Crude-oil

WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/29/23For Thursday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.77 is attainable by the end of next week, possibly yielding 77.17 by the end of July. Upside Thursday, 69.95 can contain session strength, while closing above 69.95 signals 72.77 within 2-3 days, where the market can top out into later next week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.17 within 3-5 more days. Downside Thursday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.10 within 3-5 days, 62.14 longer-term support within 2-3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Crude Short oil make another bearish attemptThe price of crude oil is currently under bearish pressure below $70.00. No lower low printed on the daily chart yet in the previous bearish attempt. However, observing the candle close, there are more bearish candlesticks with strong momentum. It can be said that the sentiment is bearish and the bear traders have the upper hand. For now, traders should watch price developments by observing new higher high or lower low. Today’s critical level to watch: Support: $70.00, $65.00 Resistance: $77.13, $80.00, $85.00 WTI crude futures extended losses to nearly 5% to below $67 per barrel on Monday, the lowest in over five weeks, as concerns about weakening demand in top consumer China and rising Russian crude supply outweighed Saudi Arabia's plans to slash output. Russian oil exports to China and India rose to record levels in May even after the implementation of the European Union’s embargo and the Group of Seven’s price cap mechanism that started in early December. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced earlier this month its intention to reduce output by 1 million barrels per day to 9 million bpd in July, the lowest level in years amid an effort to bolster crude prices. Meanwhile, investors are cautious ahead of a busy week ahead with the US inflation rate and interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BoJ. WTI crude oil is trending lower inside a newly-formed falling channel on its hourly time frame. Price just broke through the mid-channel area of interest and is setting its sights on support around $68 per barrel. Commodities like crude oil are currently being weighed down by dollar strength, as traders appear to be pricing in another Fed interest rate hike during the FOMC statement this week. Prior to that, the US CPI is up for release, and a strong headline figure might be enough to ramp up hopes for a 0.25% increase in borrowing costs. Recall that the May NFP reading also beat estimates again, so the US central bank has some room to tighten. Meanwhile, crude oil could also take cues from the API and EIA inventory numbers, as another draw in stockpiles might mean upside for the commodity. A build, on the other hand, might suggest that purchases are slow or that supply remains elevated. Still, keep in mind that the OPEC+ announced voluntary output cuts, which could translate to lower global supply levels. However, technical indicators are suggesting that a bounce is due soon. For one, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to show that bullish pressure is present and that support is more likely to hold than to break. Then again, crude oil is trading below both indicators, so these could hold as dynamic resistance levels on rallies. Stochastic has been reflecting oversold conditions for quite some time, so turning higher would mean a return in bullish pressure. The oscillator has plenty of room to climb before reaching the overbought zone, so buyers could stay in control for a while. RSI has also been lingering around the oversold area for a while, so a return in upside momentum might be due soon. US Inflation Rate Seen Falling to 4.1% The annual inflation rate in the US likely fell to 4.1% in May 2023, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April and 5% in March, mainly due to lower energy prices. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to increase by 0.2%, easing from a 0.4% rise in April. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to decrease to 5.3% from 5.5%, with the monthly rate projected to remain at 0.4%, the same as in April. The upcoming data precedes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday and is expected to strengthen the case for a pause in its tightening cycle. The annual inflation rate in the US likely fell to 4.1% in May 2023, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April and 5% in March, mainly due to lower energy prices. On a monthly basis, the CPI is projected to increase by 0.2%, easing from a 0.4% rise in April. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to decrease to 5.3% from 5.5%, with the monthly rate projected to remain at 0.4%, the same as in April. The upcoming data precedes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday and is expected to strengthen the case for a pause in its tightening cycle. European Natural Gas Down after Last Week's Rally Natural gas futures in Europe fell more than 6% below €30 per megawatt-hour, on some profit-taking after last week's 35% rally as investors weigh lower supplies against ample gas storage levels and weaker demand. Gas shipments from the US are becoming scarcer as the supply is funneled to Asia, where prices are more competitive in the summer months due to stronger demand for cooling. Meanwhile, Norway's Equinor has postponed the restart of its Hammerfest LNG plant to June 14 due to technical difficulties. Additionally, the Turkstream gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia through the Black Sea to Turkey, has been closed for maintenance work. Currently, Europe's gas storage is 70.4% full, and the European Union aims to achieve a storage inventory target of 90% by November 1. Brent crude futures fell below $74 per barrel on Monday, as concerns about weakening demand in top consumer China and rising Russian crude supply outweighed Saudi Arabia's plans to slash output. Russian oil exports to China and India rose to record levels in May even after the implementation of the European Union’s embargo and the Group of Seven’s price cap mechanism that started in early December. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced earlier this month its intention to reduce output by 1 million barrels per day to 9 million bpd in July, the lowest level in years amid an effort to bolster crude prices. Meanwhile, investors are cautious ahead of a busy week ahead with the US inflation rate and interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BoJ.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by DaveBrascoFX
WTI OIL aiming for an UPSIDE reversal.WTI net buys has been steadily increasing this past few days -- conveying accumulation at the current discounted price range. WTI just touched 1.0 FIB LEVEL -- the most discounted price range you can get. Expect some notable bounce from the present levels. The 70.0 level is a strong solid support which has been tested many times in the last 6 months -- and price keeps bouncing off it. Weekly higher lows has been created signifying that the present price as the last base before the incoming series of ascend. Spotted at 72.0 TAYOR Safeguard capital always.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by JSAL
WTI REMAINS IN RANGECrude oil prices consolidate around 68 and 77 dollars per barrel, remaining below the heights of March and April. The risk of downside movement is fueled by the slow recovery of China and their slow demand increase, higher interest rates on demand and uncertainty around US economy. On the other hand, if the prices dip too low, the countries of OPEC+ will be fast to decrease the supply in order to mitigate further down movement. The price will most likely keep ranging between 68 and 77 dollars, but if it breaks the support, it might fall to 64, while if the resistance gets broken, the price might target levels of 83.50. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
BLACKBULL:WTI
by legacyFXofficial
WTI OIL: Trend changing to bullish.WTI Oil pulled back as we expected on our previous trade and filled the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consistent with the March 24th 0.618 Fib fill (and the RSI on a harmonic buy level), a rebound now is heavily favored as the Falling Resistance from the prior market top, has already broken. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 76.00 (MA200 4h). Tips: 1. RSI (4h) crossed above the MA, as it did on March 27th on the previous market rally. This is an additional strong buy signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingBrokersView
13
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOK CONTINUESThe weak trade and inflation data from China further casts doubt on the ability of fast economical recovery of the country after COVID. This puts a rench in OPEC's forecast that China will drive the demand for crude oil to record high. The technical indicators are also confirming the downtrend, with MACD histogram being below 0 and RSI under 50 neutral line. If this scenario continues, the price of the instrument might test levels of 64 and even 62. In the opposite scenario, the price might revert and test 77 point resistance. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKThe price of WTI fell with 1.15 USD last trading day, due to expectations by investors that Fed will keep increasing the interest rate. US CPI had risen in April and is suggesting that the interest rates will remain high. Nearly 3M barrels oil inventory growth, weaker imports in April and slow export growth to China are putting additional downward pressure to the price of the crude oil. Both RSI and MACD indicators are also suggesting continue of the down trend. If this trend continues, the price might test levels of 64 USD. In the opposite scenario, the price might reach levels of 77 USD. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
Crude Oil Ka-BoingNice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon. Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of weeks. So... expecting a consolidation range fighting between bears and bulls between 70-80; while leaning towards a bullish breakout much later... perhaps (ideally) after higher low. Do note that in alignment to the earlier post about the USD dropping, it does look like Crude now has a better chance of turning around to reinstate its bullish efforts.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
CRUDE to bounce a bit, if at all, else dive hardBased on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded... 1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead; 2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12. Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens. 3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish. 4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory. Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil - Why i am BearishThere are several aspects that I am bearish on this chart. First of all, we have a huge GAP on daily that must be closed soon. Secondly, Wednesday's stock data came below those of the market, so the crude oil stock is higher than the estimates, which is very bad because they have already reduced production by 1.5mln/day, which means that unless they . had reduced production, now the price of Crude Oil would have been between 50-60 usd/barrel. Now the graph shows us a close below the resistance zone, which at least for a short time, I will have a SHORT position. Also, look at the RSI , its over bought and we need a corection of price to create more demand.
TVC:USOILShort
by sfc95
CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPsideJsut reviewing Crude, especially in light of the recent major gap up last week after OPEC decided to cut output... Orientate to the weekly chart shows the TD Setup displayed and the Sell Setup (green box early 2022) and Buy Setup (red box mid 2022). These set the TDST, and the support is at 66.12, being the lowest point of the Sell Setup. Noted that the Buy Setup did not close below the TDST, and so noted that the long term (weeks) primary trend is bullish. Price action however, decided to test the TDST in March 2023 and bounced off. This is a bullish sign and was an expected bounce point (trade taken and exited btw, shared in earlier analysis). This bounce off was followed through by a nice gap up and a Sell Setup (bullish) restarted. Noted also that 123.68 is the TDST, which is a little far for the next two weeks, with the exception of an anomaly of very severe events happening, it is unlikely to break that level any time soon. Nonetheless, there are ranges to watch... the yellow, red, and green boxes denote these. The yellow box is the major range which Crude is ranging and needs to break out of. Expected to as the break back in a few weeks ago suggests that a breakout is in the cards. You see, when a breakdown is reversed and price breaks back into a range, it tends to go out the other side later. For now, the gap up represents a gap range that is likely to be tested to close the gap. However, price action, and other technical indicators like the MACD and VolDov are suggesting that the attempt to close the gap would be short lived. For this, a smaller time frame analysis marked out the green box for a probably bounce off support level in the likely to fail close the gap attempt, at about 77.5 to 78. Shorter term is likely to see a stall up to 82ish. Long term, bullish, but a shallow retracement and then reversal upside should be in play...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market. OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision. Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022. Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4% OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low). Conclusion In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted. So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
NYMEX:BB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
usoil 8h chart buy low after pullback tp 85 usd/bbl🔸Today let's review the 8 hour chart for crude oil . Previous setup was invalidated due to the unexpected OPEC production cuts. Right now technical outlook flipped to bullish. 🔸Price gapped higher almost 10% after the OPEC production cuts were announced. Bulls hit the strong overhead resistance at 82 USD/bbl and right now I'm expecting a short-term pullback and re-test of the key s/r bulls below market price. 🔸Recommended strategy for crude oil traders: expecting short-term pullback and therefore the recommended strategy for bulls is to buy low after we re-test the key s/r price levels at 72/73 usd bbl. stop below recent market lows and TP1 is 80 USD/bbl and TP2 is 85 usd/bbl. This is a swing trade setup, so may take a while. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
WTI CRUDE OIL Best sell position inside this 8 month patternWTI Crude Oil is approaching Resistance (1) at 83.50 after OPEC cuts. The MA200 (1d) is almost there at 83.97 and has been untouched since August 30th. The pattern is a Channel Up and its top is only a little over Resistance (1). Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as the above three levels form the strongest Resistance Zone possible. Targets: 1. 67.00 initially (Support 1). Tips: 1. RSI (1d) is under a Rising Support. It is not quite there yet but the very first sign of sideways trading would be an indication of forming a top. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ). It was a calculated risk and probability count. USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering. A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call). From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs. Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%). All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover. Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
AMEX:USOLong
by Auguraltrader