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Crude

Oil Gap - A Game Changer for its PricesGap means a runaway in prices or a confirmation of a clean break away from its downtrend line. (Technical) OPEC-Plus made a surprise announcement to reduce oil production starting May. Unlike OPEC, OPEC-Plus involve many more countries. This signals a synchronise effort to boost crude oil prices. Expect a much higher oil prices to come. (Fundamental) My recent crude oil videos: • Crude Oil Outlook - USD106 as major resistance • Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100 • Correlation - Crude Oil & CPI • Crude oil a leading inflation indicator See its link below. 3 types of crude oil for trading: • Crude Oil Futures 0.01 per barrel = $10.00 Code: CL • E-mini Crude Oil Futures 0.025 per barrel = $12.50 Code QM • Micro WTI Crude Oil 0.01 per barrel = $1.00 Code MCL Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPside Part IIThe daily chart shows greater details as to why a shallow retracement of sorts is expected. The Gap occurred after the Sell Setup completed. This becomes an overextension. The overextension is now a collection of 4 dojis of indecision. This tells that it is not a Gap and Run scenario, and leaves the Gap and close to be more likely. The technical indicators MACD and VolDiv are also tapering off and need to retrace to launch further into the longer term picture. The gap is denoted by the red box. The expected bounce zone by the green box inside the red box. Noted that the daily trend is still a bear trend as the TDST Resistance of 80.94 was not exceeded by the Sell Setup closing 31 March. This is again another point suggesting a retracement... before a new Sell Setup can be started to break above 80.94. Oh... watch the orange 23-week EMA levels too! Btw, for more info on these Buy/Sell Setups, you should look into Thomas DeMark indicators, especially from his original books or the more recent condensed version by Jason Perl.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
1
CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPsideJsut reviewing Crude, especially in light of the recent major gap up last week after OPEC decided to cut output... Orientate to the weekly chart shows the TD Setup displayed and the Sell Setup (green box early 2022) and Buy Setup (red box mid 2022). These set the TDST, and the support is at 66.12, being the lowest point of the Sell Setup. Noted that the Buy Setup did not close below the TDST, and so noted that the long term (weeks) primary trend is bullish. Price action however, decided to test the TDST in March 2023 and bounced off. This is a bullish sign and was an expected bounce point (trade taken and exited btw, shared in earlier analysis). This bounce off was followed through by a nice gap up and a Sell Setup (bullish) restarted. Noted also that 123.68 is the TDST, which is a little far for the next two weeks, with the exception of an anomaly of very severe events happening, it is unlikely to break that level any time soon. Nonetheless, there are ranges to watch... the yellow, red, and green boxes denote these. The yellow box is the major range which Crude is ranging and needs to break out of. Expected to as the break back in a few weeks ago suggests that a breakout is in the cards. You see, when a breakdown is reversed and price breaks back into a range, it tends to go out the other side later. For now, the gap up represents a gap range that is likely to be tested to close the gap. However, price action, and other technical indicators like the MACD and VolDov are suggesting that the attempt to close the gap would be short lived. For this, a smaller time frame analysis marked out the green box for a probably bounce off support level in the likely to fail close the gap attempt, at about 77.5 to 78. Shorter term is likely to see a stall up to 82ish. Long term, bullish, but a shallow retracement and then reversal upside should be in play...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
OPEC’s supply cuts pre-empt economic weaknessThe Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) producers surprised the market with a decision on Sunday 2 April 2023 to lower production limits by more than 1mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the end of 2023. This decision was announced ahead of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled on 3 April and was contrary to market expectations that the committee would keep policy unchanged. Over the prior week, OPEC+ ministers were giving public assurances that they would stick to their production targets for the entire year. This cut tells us that OPEC+ is pre-empting weaker demand into the year and was looking to shore up the market. OPEC+ announcement may have caught speculators by surprise It is evident Sunday’s decision caught the market by surprise evident from the commitment of trader’s report which showed net speculative positioning in Brent crude oil futures at -44k contracts were 146% below the 5-year average. Sentiment on the crude oil market had been weak prior to the decision. Demand outlook remains soft amidst weaker economic backdrop OPEC has been markedly dovish on oil demand for some time relative to other forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This cut helps solve the disparity that existed between OPEC and the EIA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 2mn bpd in 2023. A significant portion of this growth (nearly 710,000bpd) is reliant on Chinese oil demand . Given that such a large amount of demand hinges on a single economy poses a risk to the demand outlook as the pace of China’s recovery post re-opening has not been as robust as previously anticipated. At the same time, tightening credit conditions owing to the recent banking crisis is also likely to weigh on growth forecasts in the rest of the developed world. Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicators suggest manufacturing activity has contracted since September 2022. Supply outlook will be driven by new OPEC+ cuts Since Russia has been producing less than its notional limit, the reduction on actual production will be less than 1mn bpd. But with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary reduction of 500,000bpd we would expect the overall decline in OPEC supply to be around 900,000bpd by the beginning of May 2023. Assuming OPEC production holding at the recent 28.9mn bpd for April, our balances would point to an equilibrium in Q2 and a return to a deficit in Q3 and Q4. This deficit is largely a function of OPEC+ cuts as opposed to stronger demand globally. The front end of the Brent crude oil futures curve remains in backwardation with a roll yield of +0.4% OPEC+ producers can also cut without the fear that they will lose significant market share to non-OPEC members. Previously, OPEC+ would be reluctant to let prices rise too high, as it would incentivise a supply response from US producers. However, US producers today appear more focussed on capital discipline and maximizing shareholder returns. The US also has limited capacity to plug the shortfall created by OPEC+ cuts owing to last year’s unprecedented release from strategic US oil reserves (now at a 40-year low). Conclusion In the short term, OPEC production cuts are almost always supportive evident from the recent price reaction Brent crude oil prices have risen (+6.54% ). However, over the medium term, the price response to cuts have been more mixed as they do tend to signal underlying weakness in the supply/demand balance. Either OPEC countries are expecting demand to be significantly weaker or doubt oil production in Russia will decline as sharply as forecasted. So, with speculative positioning at currently low levels alongside further inventory draws expected later in the year, the risks are titled towards the upside for crude oil prices. However, given the uncertainty in the macro environment, we expect the upside in prices to be capped at about US$90 per barrel.
NYMEX:BB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Crude Oil: Fibonacci Retracements, Support and Resistance LevelsI've had the opportunity to closely observe the crude oil market's impressive run after its historic dip into negative territory in 2020. To better understand the market's behavior, I've outlined a Fibonacci pull from the low in November 2020 to the high in March 2022. In this idea, I'll discuss the importance of support and resistance levels, as well as Fibonacci retracements, in the context of trading crude oil. Before diving into the technical analysis, let's first touch on the educational aspect of support and resistance levels. Support levels are price points at which an asset's price is more likely to stop falling and start rising, while resistance levels are the opposite - price points at which an asset's price is more likely to stop rising and start falling. These levels can help traders identify potential entry and exit points for trades. Similarly, Fibonacci retracements are an analytical tool derived from the famous Fibonacci sequence. They are used to identify potential support and resistance levels by measuring the percentage retracement of an asset's price between a low and a high. The most common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% (the most important level). In my crude oil analysis, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level sits at $66.29 on a log scale. We saw the price tap and test this level for a few days before witnessing a significant gap to the upside. What's particularly intriguing isn't the support we're finding at the 50% retracement level, but rather the support and resistance levels I've outlined at $61.35, $85.88, and $93.33. Should the price fall below the 50% retracement level, we have the downside support at $61.35. On the other hand, if the price continues moving upwards, we can expect resistance at $85.88 and $93.33. The $93 level is near the 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicating that we may encounter significant resistance at this point. A few days ago, we observed a sizable gap at around $80 after production numbers were released. Generally, production cuts lead to a higher cost for assets like crude oil, as supply shrinks while demand remains steady. If oil prices surpass the resistance level of $93-$94, there's a high likelihood we could see oil reaching $180 in the coming years – approximately two years out. Although I would assign a 20% probability to this scenario, it's essential to note that support and resistance levels have proven to be crucial in the history of oil trading. Crude oil is unlike other assets and has a reputation for trapping the herd. So, where do you stand in the herd today? Understanding and effectively utilizing Fibonacci retracements, support, and resistance levels can be the key to navigating the crude oil market and making informed decisions in your trading journey.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by bitdoctor
usoil 8h chart buy low after pullback tp 85 usd/bbl🔸Today let's review the 8 hour chart for crude oil . Previous setup was invalidated due to the unexpected OPEC production cuts. Right now technical outlook flipped to bullish. 🔸Price gapped higher almost 10% after the OPEC production cuts were announced. Bulls hit the strong overhead resistance at 82 USD/bbl and right now I'm expecting a short-term pullback and re-test of the key s/r bulls below market price. 🔸Recommended strategy for crude oil traders: expecting short-term pullback and therefore the recommended strategy for bulls is to buy low after we re-test the key s/r price levels at 72/73 usd bbl. stop below recent market lows and TP1 is 80 USD/bbl and TP2 is 85 usd/bbl. This is a swing trade setup, so may take a while. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
Are you bullish on DXY?Our technical analysis shows DXY testing its long-term breakout level, with positive economic cycles pushing it higher (Indicator 1) The used indicator shows economic cycles and their negative correlation with the dollar. When economy is overheated, DXY is going up! Indicator 2 - we see the positive correlation between DXY and energy sector, and negative correlation with tech. The zero line is showing S&P500 as basis point return. Green line is energy sector and tan line is tech sector. Calculations are made for 52 week returns. Despite expectations, high oil prices mean high demand for dollars. Our DXY target is $120 in the next few months. Follow us for more expert analysis and trading insights. #DXY #Bullish #Energy #Tech #Analysis #TradingInsights
TVC:DXYLong
by rodopacapital
WTI CRUDE OIL Best sell position inside this 8 month patternWTI Crude Oil is approaching Resistance (1) at 83.50 after OPEC cuts. The MA200 (1d) is almost there at 83.97 and has been untouched since August 30th. The pattern is a Channel Up and its top is only a little over Resistance (1). Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as the above three levels form the strongest Resistance Zone possible. Targets: 1. 67.00 initially (Support 1). Tips: 1. RSI (1d) is under a Rising Support. It is not quite there yet but the very first sign of sideways trading would be an indication of forming a top. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
Oil maintains post OPEC+ gainsAs mentioned in my previous oil update a couple of weeks ago that “the OPEC might have to cut even more production to prevent prices from falling significantly further,” that’s precisely what they did at the weekend, creating a big gap in oil prices. Oil prices eased off their highs slightly, but not by much. At the time of writing, there were approaching the overnight highs again. Where does oil go from here? Breakaway gap While gaps typically fill, they don’t always. This could be a breakaway gap in oil prices. The impact of the production cuts could send WTI to at least $85-$90 from here, before we potentially see some real weakness in oil prices again. Any short-term weakness in oil prices could prove to be bear traps, and thus may well be bought. In case you didn’t read the news, the OPEC+ blindsided the market with a surprise production cut, announced at the weekend. The group agreed to cut nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day. The reductions are pledged from next month through year end. Saudi Arabia is again leading the way with 500,000 barrels per day of cuts. Several other Gulf states have joined in with their curbs. Russia, who had already announced a 500k bpd through June, has now extended that through year end. The OPEC+ decision comes totally unexpected. Given that nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day will be held back from global supply, this should keep prices supported. In the short-term we well see some further significant gains in WTI, before the focus turns to weaker demand outlook. What about the longer-term outlook? While the OPEC+ cuts are expected to tighten the oil market and may well provide further support to prices in the near-term, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. After all, a side effect will be a fresh inflationary jolt to the world economy. This in turn may mean even more rate increases than was priced in last week. Ultimately, a high oil price will hurt demand at a time when household and business finances are overstretched. The thing about oil demand, though, is that it is very price inelastic. So, unless something like Covid happens again, don’t expect to see a material drop in oil prices due to demand weakness. People will not stop driving or travelling by plane because of high oil prices. Therefore, demand is only likely to get hurt moderately by rising oil prices. Indeed, oil is a supply-driven market. Thus, the only way for oil prices to come under significant pressure again is if non-OPEC supply increases sharply. This is possible but will take some time for producers outside the OPEC+ to ramp up their production. So, the big risk is that this could start another supply war between the OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries such as the US and Canada.
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Crude shoots higher on announcement of production cutsWe take a look at the resistance levels following the Saudi Arabia announcement. We have seen a clean bounce off long term moving averages suggesting that we are likely to see the market gravitate to its 55-week ma at 90.09. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by The_STA
WTI Outlook 3 April 2023Following the surprise news from OPEC+ where the cartel decided to cut production by more than 1 million barrels a day, energy prices gapped strongly to the upside. WTI tested the 82 price level again which was at the 50% fibonacci retracement level. Typically it is believed that price would have to close the gap before continuing with the trend again. Therefore, look for WTI to retrace before trading higher again, and if price breaks above the 82 resistance level, the next key resistance level is at 93.55 Overall significantly choppy price action is anticipated on energy prices in the short term
TVC:USOIL
by JinDao_Tai
Will oil prices continue to rise?The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and the suspension of exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq have supported the upward trend in oil prices, overshadowing the smaller-than-expected pressure on Russia's supply cuts.At the same time, five OPEC+ representatives said that the alliance may stick to the existing oil production reduction agreement at Monday's meeting. On the technical side, WTI crude oil fluctuated and fell after the opening of the market, and slowly recovered after reaching a minimum of 73.74. The current price is trading near 74.7. Although crude oil is currently facing strong technical pressure, which has led to a small decline in the current situation, but the short-term upward structure has still not been effectively destroyed, so it can maintain a low bullish pattern in the short term. Short-term trading reference: 1.Buy crude oil near the 73.7 position, stop loss level 73.3, take profit level 75.2 2.Try to sell crude oil in small batches near 75.3, with a stop loss level of 75.6 and a take profit level of 74.3 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILLong
by Short-term-king
US Oil - Last downward leg - Pt.5During the last posts, we tracked the last leg of triple three cycle wave ((2)). Our short trades secured us a profit of 3.4% of equity during this month, as per the trades posted. We always reason in terms of Equity Points since we believe it helps in reasoning in terms of risk managment. We anticipated that, when this corrective move will be finished, a big upside will resume in cycle wave (3). Which fundamentals will be consistent with this future possibility? As written in our manifesto , we believe that fundamentals unfold simultaneoulsy with price. Hence we can not know now. But we can imagine some fundamental scenario that will be consistent with this prediction. For example, just imagine that countries will continue to use oil until it will be worn out (which is not so unlikely). What will happen before it worns out, if there is still demand? With how much anticipation the market will price this dynamic? This is just speculation, and when we look to the chart we see that price is retesting the simmetrical triangle after a 5 wave down. We could have bottomed, but we are not assuming it to be our main case since: 1.- retail sentiment is still very high to the bullish side 2- our big 57-63 confluence zone has not been tagged 3- our leading indicator (exposed here ) constructed with futures term spread and EIA inventories still did not reverse. Hence, we are counting this current price action as a double zig zag targeting our conlfluence zone for the completion of wave Z. Since price tagged (a)=(c) in the last three wave up from 64, we entered short at @73.72- Our stop loss is at 74.64 for 0.5% risk. We will update here! GMR
TVC:USOIL
by GMR-Capital
1
The rise of crude oil bulls is unstoppable?Because the banking crisis has temporarily eased, supply disruptions in northern Iraq have exacerbated supply tensions, and signs of increased demand from China have provided stronger support for oil prices. Judging from the trend of crude oil, after yesterday's sharp rise in oil prices, it rebounded to above US 70, and the technical bullish signal was significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the box shock in the early stage, and it has also touched the pressure position of the channel in the short term.Oil prices are under pressure at the point of pressure, and the strength of today's rebound is not as strong, so the rebound that tends to be on the daily line in the short term may be almost gone, then the short-term trend may face a certain level of adjustment.On the other hand, after the last wave of the 4-hour-level trend rose, the price temporarily remained at a high level of narrow volatility. On the hourly-level trend, after a continuous narrow sideways movement, the technical pattern began to gradually weaken, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term. Short-term trading reference: sell crude oil near 73.80, stop loss level 74.2, take profit level 73.1-73 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ). It was a calculated risk and probability count. USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering. A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call). From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs. Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%). All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover. Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
AMEX:USOLong
by Auguraltrader
crude oil bears will target 60 usd/bbl in april 2023🔸Hello traders, today let's review the 4 hour chart for crude oil. Previously we were stuck in trading range, locked between 73 usd and 81 usd, however recently the trading range broke down and this exposed further downside below 70 usd / bbl. 🔸The active trading range is defined by 81 usd range highs and 73 usd range lows. Bears pulled the price down recently due to US banking crisis woes. It's still worth noting that this distribution fractal setup is continuation of the prior downtrend, established in 2022. 🔸Recommended strategy for crude oil traders: bears should look for reversal trade setup near mid range, which is 77.50 USD/bbl. Once we get a decent rejection, bears should scale in on sell side, initially targeting 70 USD / bbl and subsequently a fresh low at 60 USD/bbl. We can hit this level sometime in April/May 2023. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:USOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
22