Crude shoots higher on announcement of production cutsWe take a look at the resistance levels following the Saudi Arabia announcement.
We have seen a clean bounce off long term moving averages suggesting that we are likely to see the market gravitate to its 55-week ma at 90.09.
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Crude
WTI Outlook 3 April 2023Following the surprise news from OPEC+ where the cartel decided to cut production by more than 1 million barrels a day, energy prices gapped strongly to the upside.
WTI tested the 82 price level again which was at the 50% fibonacci retracement level.
Typically it is believed that price would have to close the gap before continuing with the trend again.
Therefore, look for WTI to retrace before trading higher again, and if price breaks above the 82 resistance level, the next key resistance level is at 93.55
Overall significantly choppy price action is anticipated on energy prices in the short term
BTCUSD/OIL_CRUDE Showing Clearer Signs than BTCUSD ChartsWatch the moving averages and cloud levels here, as well as areas for price consolidation. It's a bit prettier than BTCUSD, isn't it?
With the prices of OIL_CRUDE moving back up again, it's hard to tell whether BTCUSD is performing well against it, until you use a chart like this.
Type:
BTCUSD:BITSTAMP/OIL_CRUDE
in your bar to find this!
Will oil prices continue to rise?The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and the suspension of exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq have supported the upward trend in oil prices, overshadowing the smaller-than-expected pressure on Russia's supply cuts.At the same time, five OPEC+ representatives said that the alliance may stick to the existing oil production reduction agreement at Monday's meeting.
On the technical side, WTI crude oil fluctuated and fell after the opening of the market, and slowly recovered after reaching a minimum of 73.74. The current price is trading near 74.7. Although crude oil is currently facing strong technical pressure, which has led to a small decline in the current situation, but the short-term upward structure has still not been effectively destroyed, so it can maintain a low bullish pattern in the short term.
Short-term trading reference:
1.Buy crude oil near the 73.7 position, stop loss level 73.3, take profit level 75.2
2.Try to sell crude oil in small batches near 75.3, with a stop loss level of 75.6 and a take profit level of 74.3
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
US Oil - Last downward leg - Pt.5During the last posts, we tracked the last leg of triple three cycle wave ((2)). Our short trades secured us a profit of 3.4% of equity during this month, as per the trades posted. We always reason in terms of Equity Points since we believe it helps in reasoning in terms of risk managment.
We anticipated that, when this corrective move will be finished, a big upside will resume in cycle wave (3).
Which fundamentals will be consistent with this future possibility?
As written in our manifesto , we believe that fundamentals unfold simultaneoulsy with price. Hence we can not know now. But we can imagine some fundamental scenario that will be consistent with this prediction.
For example, just imagine that countries will continue to use oil until it will be worn out (which is not so unlikely).
What will happen before it worns out, if there is still demand?
With how much anticipation the market will price this dynamic?
This is just speculation, and when we look to the chart we see that price is retesting the simmetrical triangle after a 5 wave down.
We could have bottomed, but we are not assuming it to be our main case since:
1.- retail sentiment is still very high to the bullish side
2- our big 57-63 confluence zone has not been tagged
3- our leading indicator (exposed here ) constructed with futures term spread and EIA inventories still did not reverse.
Hence, we are counting this current price action as a double zig zag targeting our conlfluence zone for the completion of wave Z.
Since price tagged (a)=(c) in the last three wave up from 64, we entered short at @73.72-
Our stop loss is at 74.64 for 0.5% risk.
We will update here!
GMR
USOIL Short From The Rising Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL made a nice rebound
From the deep lows where
It has obviously been oversold
But now the price is about to retest
The rising resistance line
So I am expecting a pullback
And a move down
Towards the 71.4$ area
Sell!
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The rise of crude oil bulls is unstoppable?Because the banking crisis has temporarily eased, supply disruptions in northern Iraq have exacerbated supply tensions, and signs of increased demand from China have provided stronger support for oil prices.
Judging from the trend of crude oil, after yesterday's sharp rise in oil prices, it rebounded to above US 70, and the technical bullish signal was significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the box shock in the early stage, and it has also touched the pressure position of the channel in the short term.Oil prices are under pressure at the point of pressure, and the strength of today's rebound is not as strong, so the rebound that tends to be on the daily line in the short term may be almost gone, then the short-term trend may face a certain level of adjustment.On the other hand, after the last wave of the 4-hour-level trend rose, the price temporarily remained at a high level of narrow volatility. On the hourly-level trend, after a continuous narrow sideways movement, the technical pattern began to gradually weaken, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term.
Short-term trading reference: sell crude oil near 73.80, stop loss level 74.2, take profit level 73.1-73
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down.
So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ).
It was a calculated risk and probability count.
USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering.
A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call).
From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs.
Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%).
All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover.
Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
crude oil bears will target 60 usd/bbl in april 2023🔸Hello traders, today let's review the 4 hour chart for crude oil. Previously we were stuck in
trading range, locked between 73 usd and 81 usd, however recently the trading range broke
down and this exposed further downside below 70 usd / bbl.
🔸The active trading range is defined by 81 usd range highs and 73 usd range lows.
Bears pulled the price down recently due to US banking crisis woes.
It's still worth noting that this distribution fractal setup is continuation of the
prior downtrend, established in 2022.
🔸Recommended strategy for crude oil traders: bears should look for reversal trade
setup near mid range, which is 77.50 USD/bbl. Once we get a decent rejection, bears
should scale in on sell side, initially targeting 70 USD / bbl and subsequently a fresh
low at 60 USD/bbl. We can hit this level sometime in April/May 2023.
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WTI Crude Oil is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our technical outlook for WTI Crude Oil.
Time Frame: Daily
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 73.8.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market.
I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 66.3 level.
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A potential buying opportunity in oilOil broke through another resistance level and now faces another resistance level at 73.00, which is also the meeting point of the upper trend line of the local ascending channel. Wait for it to rebound to retest the previously broken level at 71, where it will also meet the 38.20 Fibonacci level and a local upward trend line. If any signs of a reversal appear from there, it could be a buying opportunity up to 74.30.
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CRUDE OIL Another Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL has confirmed
Our bearish outlook on the
Price direction because
Oil broke a support cluster
Of the rising and horizontal
Support levels which is now
A supply cluster therefore
More downside on oil
Is to be expected in
The coming weeks
Sell!
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Crude Oil (WTI): Massive Zone to Watch Next Week 🛢️
Crude Oil has recently broken a massive horizontal demand cluster.
70.0 - 74.0 is the zone that was a key structure support and that was respected multiple time in the recent past.
After a breakout, the underlined area turned into a supply zone.
Probabilities will be high that the next bearish wave will initiate from that.
Goal - 66.3
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WTI Crude Oil - Prospective positional short tradeWTI Crude Oil has completed a nice Head and Shoulders pattern breakdown in the weekly chart and has retested the breakdown zone. Currently cruising at around $67. It is comfortably placed below yearly pivot. Currently the developing yearly CPR is posing a big resistance which possibly could push the price lower. It has also gone down below the yearly virgin pivot and poised to move towards the next yearly virgin pivot at around $37 which is possibly my first target. The target based on head and shoulders pattern is around $23-$25 zone. A move above $82 will invalidated this view and will be out of my position.
⚡️UPDATE: OIL PRICE, 21 March 2023My last update was over 1.5 months ago.
I was looking for a continuation of the downtrend in the price of Oil down to the mid-60s area. I expected this to happen soon or after a period of side-ways movement.
Subsequently, Oil proceeded to trade sideways and in recent days has reached the support level as outlined in the chart.
We should expect strong support around this area. Extending back to 2019, this area has acted as both support and resistance on numerous occasions.
📉 A strong move below this area could see an acceleration in the pace of the downtrend with Mid-40s being the next stopping point. The narrative/rationale for such a move would be a collapse in inflation expectations/demand destruction due to the current banking crisis and flow on effects.
📈 A bounce higher is also possible. An outsized bounce would signal a change of behaviour that may result in a trend reversal. On the other hand, a minor bounce would not change the bearish trend and we should expect 📉 as outlined above.
Last time: 7th Feb 2023
No change of opinion. Looks to be headed lower. Currently moving in a choppy sideways pattern (horizontal green arrow) . There are currently no reversal signs such as a large bullish candle or significant bounce - the scale of which will need to surpass the Oct 2022 short-term rally.
In the short-term, prices can move higher to the upper range of the current side-ways movement or just simply fail to the downside. I don't forsee a long period of consolidation.
The medium-term price target is still the mid-$60s. That's the strongest immediate support zone.
DYOR, not investment advice.
UKOIL🛢️ macro movesBrent Crude Oil : Multiyear(2015-2022) inverted Head and Shoulders triggered at the beginning of this year. Price broke the major downtrendline and subsequently iH&S neckline at 87 (lime) and then skyrocketed to 138. Now pulling back down to the neckline. We could actually see the backtest of the major downtrendline and dip into the S/R Zone 76-68. This would be great buying opportunity. Price shouldn't get much below right shoulder (65.8), otherwise the setup would be invalidated. Will set SL to 60, Target 157.
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⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.