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Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2"My previous call on natural gas made Sept. 19 has come to fruition, achieving all three targets, and in a shorter than expected period of time: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The question I've asked myself for the last few days is simply: Now that the June lows have been taken out, is it time for a reversal? And frankly, I don't believe a (sustained) reversal is imminent, mostly because I really do believe $18 NG1 is incoming and these market makers, who are total maniacs, will not make it so easy for one to go long. Things to keep in mind when we're so close to the end of the month and major lows have been achieved: 1. Look out for bounces as monthly candle wicks are painted 2. Look out for monthly candle highs to be painted in the first days/weeks of November 3. Big volume gaps between $6.3 and $5. "It's only 23%!" 4. Big bounce from $4.9 to $5.3 June lows are likely Trendlines are astrology, for real. Stop believing in them. No banks and no trading floors at Shell, Exxon, Aramco, Gazprom, are sitting there thinking of what to do with billions of dollars of inventory and drawing a diagonal line between two lows and thinking to themselves about such and such "support." That is truly absurd. Yet, you should pay attention to these things because, to the contrary, they're used to fleece dumb money. The markets revolve around fleecing dumb money, and there are entire funds with billions of dollars of dumb money. To put this trendline into perspective, although it looks reasonable on the 4H, look how absurd this is on the monthly: That being said, it's also reasonable on the 1W and 1D charts: & We are notably at that point, below the psychological $5 level and more or less at the trendline, and at the end of the month. When June made its Armageddon move downwards it came right as the monthly contract closed, so I personally do not expect a repeat of the same situation. I think a bounce to $5.3 is more or less inevitable, and I suspect rather than break through it and act like Silver/Gold/WTI has retracing to newer highs, it will bounce off the low and manufacture the kind of "resistance" found in technical analysis books to encourage late shorts. Early November may actually show us a more bullish impulse back to $6, but keep in mind that to get back to that mid-October weekly gap would more or less fill the entire October monthly bar with a November wick, so that gap is likely a breakaway gap that will stay in place for some time. Anyways, what I expect to see is after some retrace to catch late shorts and squeeze and break them, as well as to exploit early bulls, we will see a retrace, one that won't last long and will probably be quickly accompanied by another breakaway gap. I believe that natural gas will, in a very quick period of time, actually print a number as low as $2.9, a move that will be accompanied by WTI also setting new lows and approaching $50, as I noted in a recent call: WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict Europe has already filled their coffers with $9-10 US LNG delivered via boat and until they need to refill the barrels in a few months after Freeport is re-opened, prices should be suppressed as producers and funds get net long on energy. The reason is, problems between NATO and Russia and problems between the World and the Chinese Communist Party under the new found "Emperor" Xi and his delusional miscalculation to stay attached to Marxist-Leninism and communism will lead the Party to either attack Russia alongside NATO or to pinch both Russia and NATO with an assault on Taiwan. Energy will be _extremely_ expensive everywhere once the global conflict breaks out. But as with all such moves, first come lows that are more uncomfortable than early bulls and scared bears are comfortable with. 2023 will not be a pleasant year, so make sure you do your utmost to have a proper Christmas with your family and act like a good person. Whoever you are who is reading this, what I want to tell you is this: If you want a future, you need to start by first rejecting communist culture, especially all things Marxist-Leninism. Next, you need to reject the Chinese Communist Party, for it is guilty of the crime of live organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong and will be purged by history. Third, you need to start to emphasize virtue and improve your conduct and morality on a foundation of traditional human culture. I am not talking about dogma, and I am not talking about religion. Both of those are totally useless. I am talking about a rational understanding of what it means to be "a human being," the things that have allowed this civilization and this cycle of history to persist over the last 5,000 years, founded on the back of the Chinese dynasties. There are so many lessons in history. I hope that whoever has the fortune to encounter my words can walk out of the catastrophe. But if your thoughts are unrighteous, then if you can't, you can't. Regrets, however, will be no help at all. It's just like poker: you have to figure it out and have your bets placed before the cards are turned face up. Once the truth is revealed, everything is fixed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
14
CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 7676 Pivot: 6764 Support: 5832 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price head back up to retest the pivot at 6764, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back down towards the support at 5832, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Genesiv
USOIL: Remaining Stubborn within the RangeUSOIL has managed to stay slightly above the PCZ of a Bearish Butterfly as well as to not break down any trendlines and avoid the bottom of the Range; However, Despite how strong it may look it still has dailed to break structure and it has been showing lots of Bearish Divergence. So long as the range holds i suspect that we will trade back below the 1.618 and eventually go for the Bearish Break Down Targets that could lead to a Bearish 5-0 to take us down to Atleast $56.27.
TVC:USOILShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Crude oil a leading inflation indicatorTwo observation made the last two years between crude oil and CPI: 1) There were 5 waves up and 2) 3 significant peaks However, between the last 2 peaks of crude, it was a lower low follow-by its downtrend, and CPI followed this downtrend subsequently. Among many commodities, crude oil moves the most in tandem with CPI, but crude seems to lead in this study. Refer to the daily chart on your own, try drawing a downtrend line, you will see crude oil prices has broken above its downtrend line recently. If crude oil is going to transit to an uptrend from here, we will have to track CPI very closely. The inflation fear is still there. Did a video on this observation last week, refer to the link below. Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
2
WTI Outlook 20/01/2023WTI remains firmer for the second consecutive week even if the intraday buyers retreat during early Friday morning in Europe. That said, the black gold slides to $80.95 while paring the daily gains by the press time. In doing so, the energy benchmark takes clues from the recent stabilization of the US Dollar, as well as hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On the same line could be the headlines suggesting the US recession and higher crude oil inventory build in the US.
TVC:USOIL
by OAurthor
1
WTI OIL: Rising on the 4H MA50Crude Oil is rising strongly today on the 4H MA50, recovering from yesterday's rejection on the 1D MA100. Both the 4H and 1D time frames turned bullish technically (RSI = 60.309 & 60.309, MACD = 0.770 & 0.890, ADX = 36.187 & 25.146 respectively) as the price is approaching R1. This is a strong Resistance Zone that has been intact for 2 months. On it is the HH 1 trend-line, which has three Higher Highs already. The bullish trigger is above 83.40 with TP the R2 at 87.50. The bearish trigger is the 4H MA50 and HL 2 with TP HL 1 and S2. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
2
US OIL- Pt.3- Keep extendingIn our first post about oil we explained why we believe that Oil will conclude cycle wave 2 around the 57-63 area. We now believe it to be likely to complete the above triangular pattern before dropping more. The upper trendline of the triangle is confluent with the order block. To allow our stop loss to be extended to 81 respecting our risk managment rules, we closed half of the position. Our total loss for this position up to now is 0.7% of equity, so we are allowed to risk 0.8% more. Current stop loss is at 81 for 0.6% risk.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by GMR-Capital
CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 7676 Pivot: 6764 Support: 5832 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 5832, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back up to retest the pivot at 6764, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by Genesiv
A traders’ week ahead playbook – the BoJ gets the full focus Having returned from three weeks of annual leave with a renewed focus, it feels like the transitioning market expectations and positioning from a hard-landing economic scenario to one that is less bad one still has legs, and the positive risk sentiment should hold for now, although we must be prepared to react to changes in sentiment and price. The drivers; EU Nat gas falling to the lowest levels since late 2021, a major factor behind some positive economic upgrades to EU GDP. China’s more aggressive re-opening promoting strong trending conditions in CN50, HK50, copper, USDCNH, crude and gold. While much of the US hard data is holding up well and a belief the survey data may positively converge higher, and this comes amid a slight decline in nominal and real rates. The easing of US financial conditions does pose a risk ahead of a raft of Fed speakers this week, some of whom may want to keep the option of a 50bp hike on the table, at a time when US hard data is still robust, and the labour market is in fine health. Another big volatility driver would be if the BoJ disappoints market expectations and leaves policy unchanged for now – I’d argue after last week’s moves below 128.00 in USDJPY, and Japan 10yr swap rates into 1%, there is a skew in expectations/positioning towards either shifting the yield target band to 0.75% or even 1%, perhaps even abolishing altogether, but maintaining a commitment to buy bonds through QE. Some say this latter action is too soon after the changes that we saw on 20 Dec, but for me, the question is why wait? There is increasing inflation in Japan, political pressure to end YCC and the markets are consistently testing the BoJ – most importantly, the JGB market remains highly dysfunctional and the BoJ is having to buy far more bonds than the JPY9t p/m they detailed they would buy in December. 1-week USDJPY implied vols are sky-high, so this highlights the risks to JPY positioning for traders – position sizing here will keep you in the game. Where is the balance of risks? Given expectations, I see downside risks this week for the JPY and while the trend is for a stronger JPY, as a risk manager I would be looking to part cover JPY longs into the BoJ meeting. For now, though, there are big moves and trends across markets – the preference is to take a systematic approach - over a tactical one – and look for continuation in the moves in the USD, gold, NAS100, CN50, XAU, crypto and crude. That is, at least until we see price close below/above the 5-day EMA or a 3- & 8-day EMA crossover, which could highlight a loss of momentum and promote a change in order book dynamics. So, what are the known event risks for the week ahead? US Q4 earnings – it’s a quiet week on the US Corp. reporting front, where we see just 5% of the S&P500 market cap hitting us with numbers, with the reporting calendar really heating up next week. Of the company's reporting, Netflix (report after market on Thursday / 8 am Friday AEDT) should get the lion's share of attention from clients. Consider that Netflix’s implied move on the day of earnings is 8.6% and with a creep higher in recent price action into $332, this is a one for the equity traders. Central bank speakers – I will be looking closely at the 9 Fed speakers this week, as well as 7 ECB speakers, who will hit the wires through the week. On the Fed front, Lael Brainard (20 Jan at 05:15 AEDT) and John Williams (20 Jan 10:35 AEDT) get the most attention for possible loose guidance for a step down in future rate hikes to 25bp at the 2 Feb FOMC meeting. Given the bearish trend in the USD, there are risks the Fed speakers push back on these easing of financial conditions – so Fed speeches pose a risk in some of the price trends taking place across markets. So, what are the known event risks for the week ahead? MONDAY • Martin Luther King Day – no US cash equity trading, partial trading on the session in futures. TUESDAY • China high-frequency data dump (all data points due out at 13:00 AEDT) - Industrial production (consensus at 0.2%), retail sales (-9.5%), fixed asset investment (5%) and Q4 GDP (1.6%) – the market holds conviction in its view of a positive turn in the data around the start of Q2, on the back of the reopening measures and stimulus announced – so this data series is in the review mirror and I would not be too concerned with holding copper, SpotCrude, AUD, CNH or China equity exposures over this data point and do not expect it to move markets too intently. • UK employment data (18:00 AEDT) – hard to see this causing too much in the way of GBP vol, but worth having on the radar if trading the GBP. As such, we see GBPUSD 1-week options implied vol at the 21st percentile of its 12-month range. Average weekly earnings are expected to push to 6.2% (from 6.1%), while the 3m U/E rate is eyed unchanged at 3.7%. • German ZEW survey (21:00 AEDT) – With the improvement seen in some of the EU data flow of late, and EU Nat Gas trading to the lowest levels since Dec ‘21, the market expects the ZEW survey of expectations to improve at -15 (from -23.3 in the Dec read). Not expecting the data point to materially move the EUR and it should confirm the markets-held view that things are far less bad in Europe. WEDNESDAY • BoJ meeting (no set time) – the marquee event risk of the week. After last week’s report in Yomiuri, the market is fiercely watching to see the actions from the BoJ. There are increasing expectations the BoJ could either alter its YCC (yield curve control) program, where they contain the 10-yr JGB at a yield of -/+0.50%, potentially taking it out to 0.75%, or even abolish it altogether – possibly replacing YCC with QE and a commitment to buy JGBs. USDJPY and JPY implied volatility is at the highest levels since May 2020, so it’s a big week for the JPY and JPN225. Clearly, the BoJ have no choice but to stop the YCC program, but whether that happens this week or at some point in the next couple of meetings is up for debate – if they abolish YCC the JPY could fly. Conversely, if they don’t alter/abolish YCC and change the maturity of the yield target (to say the 5yr JGB) then we could see big JPY weakness. • UK CPI (18:00 AEDT) – the market sees headline inflation coming in at 10.5% (from 10.7%) and core inflation at 6.2% (6.3%). A 50bp hike from the BoE at the Feb meeting looks likely at this stage, so we’d need a really weak print to bring rates pricing below 40bp. Fundamentally, the GBP screens relatively unattractive vs other G10 currencies, with long EURGBP a big consensus trade in play. Eyeing the price action in this pair I have no major conviction but see an elevated risk of a move lower into 0.8800, where I’d be looking for better buyers. • EU Dec CPI (21:00 AEDT) – this is a revision from the recently announced 9.2% YoY print on headline and 5.2% on core. Unless there is a big change then this shouldn’t move the EUR too intently. We see a 50bp hike priced for the 2 Dec ECB meeting and terminal rats pricing around 3.3% later this year. THURSDAY • US PPI (00:30 AEDT) – the market expects US Dec PPI inflation to fall from 7.4% to 6.8% - typically PPI is far less impactful than CPI, but the correlation with corporate earnings is higher. In a market hellbent on watching inflation metrics, the PPI print holds modest risks for USD and US equity positioning. • US Dec retail sales (also 00:30 AEDT) – with US Q4 GDP tracking above 3% and traders positioning away from a hard landing growth scenario, retail sales could influence this growth debate – the market sees a 90bp decline (MoM), with the ‘control group’ element eyed at -0.4%. Bad numbers, relative to expectations, will weigh on the USD here, although I am not expecting this to be a big volatility event. • Australia Dec employment report (11:30 AEDT) – the market expects 22.5k jobs to be created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.4%, on a participation rate of 66.8%. Rates markets are yet to be fully convinced of a 25bp hike from the RBA on 2 Feb, so a hot jobs number and it could push pricing closely to the full 25bp. The current terminal rates pricing sits close to 3.7%. Happy to hold AUD exposures over the jobs report event, as the AUD holds a close relationship with copper, China equity and broad risk sentiment than domestic factors. AUDCAD is on the radar and the momentum suggests risks for a further push higher to 0.9400. FRIDAY • Japan national CPI (10:30 AEDT) – the national print comes after the more forward-looking Tokyo CPI print, subsequently, the market expects Japan CPI to come in at 4% (from 3.8%). The CPI also print comes after the BoJ meeting, so depending if the BoJ acts decisively on Wednesday, the influence may be muted. • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate decision (12:30 AEDT) – while the broad consensus is that the PBoC will leave policy unchanged, it would not surprise to see we could see a slight cut of 10bp in the prime rate. The market also is on edge for a further easing of the RRR (reserve ratio requirement), an outcome that would increase the level of liquidity into the economy and be a further positive for Chinese equity markets and the AUD Good luck to all
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone