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Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 81.06 Pivot: 73.40 Support: 74.33 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 81.06, where the previous highs are. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 74.33, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Genesiv
Crude oil WTI: Downside contained?Oil WTI failed to break over the 50-day moving average during the session on January 3, and sellers returned after the price topped $80 per barrel. This resulted in a rapid drop to $73/bbl, making it an interesting area to assess the strength of buyers on dips once again. Remember that the US is actively purchasing crude oil at 67-72 dollars per barrel range in order to replenish its strategic reserves (SPR), which have fallen to their lowest level since 1983. The level of $70/bbl generated a double bottom between December 9 and December 12, 2022, luring buyers at those prices. In the coming weeks, the market may retest those levels or even hit $69-68.5/bbl (December 21, 2021 lows). In such a case, the RSI may show a bullish divergence since it will not fall as low as it did at the December 9 price lows. Thus, the short-term scenario may still have another leg down, albeit the proximity to the purchasing window may limit bearish pressure. A fresh rise over $80/bbl (the 50DMA and the negative trendline from June to November 2022) would open up new positive prospects towards $84/bbl (23.6% Fibonacci) first and $90/bbl (psychological and highs of November 10, 2022) afterwards.
TVC:USOIL
by Capitalcom
2
USOIL - Getting Slippery 💧Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. on MONTHLY: Left Chart USOIL is sitting around a strong support zone 70.0 - 75.0 , so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. 🏹 on H1: Right Chart For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the previous major high in gray. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, USOIL can still trade lower inside the monthly resistance zone till around the 70.0 where we will be looking for new buy setups. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:USOIL
by TheSignalyst
3
Is Exxon Mobil prime for a trend reversal after 280% rally?On 8th November 2022, shares of Exxon Mobil reached a high of 114.66$, marking over a 280% increase since their lows in March 2020. The company has enjoyed this two-year lasting rally thanks to the growing prices of oil, which translated into growing corporate earnings during this period. However, with oil prices peaking in the first half of 2022 and worsening economic conditions around the globe, shares of XOM might be positioning themselves for a trend reversal. In addition to that, the U.S. government seeking to increase taxes on oil producers also does not help the situation. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action. We want to see the price break below the immediate support/resistance level and a pick-up in volume to support our thesis. With that outlined, we want to set a price target for XOM at 90$ per share. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of XOM. Volume can be seen declining for the past eight months while the price kept rising. That hints at fewer investors willing to buy the stock at elevated levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish but losing momentum Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XOM and 200-day SMA. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:XOMShort
by Tradersweekly
58
Recession is poised to weigh on the oil demand and higher pricesSince our previous idea, USOIL broke above 80$ and halted its rise slightly below the 50-day SMA. After that, it faltered to 79$ handle where it currently trades. Meanwhile, we noticed bullish calls emerging all over the place. However, while we allow for the possibility of a further price increase, we do not think it will be as dramatic as many people forecast. At this point, we are very skeptical about the narrative claiming a retest of 100$ and continuation of the rally beyond this price level. That is because economic activity shows a significant decline in 2022. Furthermore, as if it was not enough, economic activity is poised to slump even more in 2023, with signs of a recession on the horizon. As a result, we expect the economic slowdown to weigh heavily on the oil demand. It would not surprise us to see the U.S. administration put more pressure on oil producers, prompting them to pump more oil out of the ground, especially if the prices continue to climb higher. In turn, that could offset some price increases and help to balance the market. Therefore, we are cautious and pay close attention to market developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement toward the 50-day SMA, which often coincides with a strong downtrend correction. In this case, the price failed to fully retrace and break above the 50-day SMA, which may hint at signs of exhaustion for the rally. Therefore, we raise our level of cautiousness. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
20
Recession concerns and a stronger USD sends WTI back below $80WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle. Also note that previously the market has reversed lower around the 100-day EMA, yet here it is trying to turn lower around the 50-day EMA (which itself is below the 100-day EMA). A bearish divergence also formed on RSI ahead of the double top, therefore the bias is for another dip lower. A break of the September low assumes bearish continuation, and next support resides around 72.50 – 73.40. In light of seeking to ‘remain nimble’, we prefer to stick to intraday timeframes in line with the daily bias. Commitment of traders (managed funds) We can see that net-long exposure has been ticking higher on WTI for managed funds, but this is due to shorts being covered and not new longs being initiated in recent weeks. Given the negative sentiment then it’s plausible to suspect some of those bears will now be returning. But if or when we see gross longs increase and gross shorts decrease, we would be more confident in calling a bottom in oil. We’re just not there yet.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
CRUDE OIL Bounces... how high?As previously mentioned, Crude was to break 76, and head down to a target of 67. It did break down below 76 decisively, but found a support at 70. And it appears to be bouncing off the 70 support level. There are two main ranges and in combination, the yellow box denotes the current consolidation area over the next couple of months. Noted the Bullish Divergence on the MACD, although the VolDiv (lower panel) is still showing some bearish momentum. Expecting a (consolidating) bounce to 85-90, the latter being resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
1
Mixed view on the oil market In our previous article, we said that we would like to abstain from setting any price outlook for USOIL after it stopped 0.10$ above our 70$ price target. Unfortunately, that continues to be the case also today, and we do not wish to set any new price targets. However, we would like to update at least some thoughts on the asset. On 8th December 2022, we floated the idea of the price deviating too far from its moving averages. Interestingly, the next day the price halted its decline and started going up. Since then, the price has broken above 20-day SMA. As a result, USOIL currently trades near the 78.90$ price tag. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the price action. If the price breaks above 80$ and holds there, it will bolster the bullish case for USOIL in the short term. In such a scenario, it could be possible that USOIL will attempt to fully retrace toward its 50-day SMA. That would mark a significant downtrend correction and perhaps even foreshadow a bigger move up. However, our current thoughts about the oil market are mixed. There are several factors responsible for that. First, economic activity is slowing down rapidly, weighing on oil demand in the coming months. Second, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that the Earth experienced the coolest November since 2014, which can contrarily boost demand over the winter. Third, the U.S. might consider slowing down or halting releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) as their levels are reaching 1983 lows. In addition to that, there are rumors of Germany and Poland demanding oil from the Russian company Transneft, which opens a debate about whether some of the Russian crude oil can be allowed back into the European market. With that said, we would like to wait longer on the sidelines until we see a clearer picture of the market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price holds above the short-term support, it will be bullish in the short term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
17
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULISH PATTERNDemand for crude oil is expected to rise after a cold wave hit USA, which will likely increase the demand for oil distillates, easing of the COVID measures in China and US crude oil inventories coming up less than the analysts have had expected. British crude oil benchmark, BRENT, had broken the resistance of the triangle pattern, a strong bullish predictor, and the price might reach levels of 87.5 in the next couple of days. In an event of reversal of the trend, the price might reach levels of its previous low of 75.35 RSI and MACD both are confirming the bullish outlook, with MACD histogram above 0 and rising and RSI rising as well and approaching the 50 neutral line. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by legacyFXofficial