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WTI Oil Aiming for +99$Hello Traders This week oil price jumped almost +12.5$ from the opening price on Monday and ended in a big green weekly candle. 2 major factors affected Oil prices: 1- OPEC has reduced its production limit. 2- Cold seasons started in Europe and demand for energies such as oil has soared. Technically: 1- Price has broken a falling wedge pattern. 2- Price has made a big green weekly candle. 3- Also the price has made a local higher high indicating a reversal in trend. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by FortunaInvestments
Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI: Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI has no room to be in Extended Range any longer. With Stocks and inflational products keeps going lower. Dollar domination is just getting stronger and VIX is still supressed relative to history. All this is about the breakout to the upside. Oil will reach 65 WTI price this month because of producers price is at 65. This price will get consumer back in rough times. Consumer spending in oil/gas is at lowest level. Remember supply and demand. Oil has been trading in static trading range, meaning oil price will go lower in time not higher. There is too much oil stored and prices are just pumped by inflation and war. Everything that has inflational status will go down hard still. See 50-70% drop still in stockmarket and so with energy prices. 10x natural gas is not sustainable either. Be ware and take care. Best Regards R.B
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by PivotX
3
WTI oil - Rumors about production cuts elevate the priceOver the past few days, rumors about the OPEC production cut started circulating in the market, with some suggesting the cut could be between 1 mil. bpd up to 1.5 mil. bpd. Subsequently, the price of WTI oil rallied above 83 USD. This development comes in spite of OPEC's inability to reach its own production quotas and might temporarily lift the price of oil. However, at this point, we still remain relatively bearish on oil in the long term, with a price target of 70 USD. Despite that, we will pay close attention to the rhetoric of OPEC members about future (potential) production cuts. If the cartel proceeds with further cuts on the supply side, then it might force us to abandon our price target. We will update our thoughts soon. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
21
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc. There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare. At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again. This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!" And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe. In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers: WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support. Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position. A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly: All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging. And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom. If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be? Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone. But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above. Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges. Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today. The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls. The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal. So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is? Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it. And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66. But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows. And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level. In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it. It may start to come faster and faster. At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill. Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number." The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer. But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there. I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this. Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit. Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy. Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not. Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4
#BRENT update - Breakout confirmed, goes to $101Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Brent crude price was squeezed in a descending triangle, and a breakout from the triangle was expected, so it happened as seen on the chart 🔔 Brent crude price is traded at $91 trying to hit the key resistance of $91.60 up ahead. 🔔 I do anticipate the price to slow down a bit when reaching the aforementioned resistance, however the path to $101 stays clear. 🔔 Opec+ will cut production by 1M, which is 3.4% of the current daily production volume. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
TVC:UKOILLong
by azizelliott
1
What Does This Say About the Future?As many of you know, this week Warren Buffet increased his stake in the oil and natural gas company Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY). Warren Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway now owns about 21% of the company. In light of Warren Buffet's purchase, I analyzed the chart of OXY to see what he or his analysts might be seeing. As I'll explain below, what I found was concerning for multiple reasons. This is the yearly chart of the entire price history of OXY. Each candle represents the price action for one year. It is important to log-adjust your charts in general, but especially when analyzing higher timeframes. Below is a log-adjusted chart. Since OXY is also a dividend-paying stock, analyzing its history over such a long time period over which it has paid dividends means we need to adjust for dividends as well. Below is a dividend-adjusted chart. Now that the chart has been properly adjusted, we can do our chart analysis. Looking at this chart, I immediately noticed that OXY is about to undergo a major Fibonacci extension. I will explain more below. First, I applied Fibonacci levels from the lowest low to the highest high. You can see my Fibonacci levels applied in the chart above (I hid the 0.5 level because that is actually not a Fibonacci level). I noticed that, during the COVID-19 Pandemic, OXY's price bounced off of the golden ratio and then proceed to move much higher. See the below chart. In my experience, this type of price action is rare and usually proceeds what is called an "S-curve jump". Without getting too deep into higher-level mathematics behind S curves, in short, an S-curve jump basically means a major breakout may occur on the time frame in which it appears. Following an S-curve jump, prices can move much higher. Since this particular jump is occurring on a high timeframe, be mindful that the move can seem slow, and there can even be periods of weeks or months of declines even though a breakout on the yearly timeframe is underway. Perhaps this is why Warren Buffet accumulated so many shares of this company. Warren Buffet is long-term investor and so investing based on the yearly chart is most consistent with a multi-decadal investment strategy like his. To help you visualize what an S-curve jump looks like I've illustrated it below. This chart is purely illustrative and is not my actual price projection for OXY (it's impossible to accurately predict price so far into the future). As shown above, price jumps from one S-curve to another, leading to significant increases in price. Interestingly, the second S-curve often starts at the golden ratio retracement of the previous S-curve. Once the price successfully jumps an S-curve, the price increases can be monumental. Actually, it is during the period after price jumps an S-curve that most people get wealthy from their investment. It's how 'millionaires are created'. However, price tends to falter at each successive Fibonacci extension. Below I've highlighted an example of this using Bitcoin which moves almost entirely based on Fibonacci extensions and retracements. Notice how following a perfect golden ratio retracement, Bitcoin moved up to nearly the next Fibonacci extension level before collapsing back down a Fibonacci level. You can see clearly that price has been hovering right on a Fibonacci level in recent months. Going back to OXY, we can use a regression channel to try to validate the hypothesis that price may move much higher in the coming year(s). See the chart below. A regression channel merely measures how far above or below its mean an asset is currently priced. Each blue line represents a standard deviation from the mean. We can see that OXY's price recently reached its mean (the red line) before retracing back down. Similar to retracement after reaching Fibonacci extensions, it is common for price to retrace some of its move each time it hits a higher standard deviation. What's noteworthy is that although OXY's price has come all the way back up near its all-time high, the regression channel shows that this level is now merely the price's mean. See the below chart. This suggests that, from a mean regression perspective, OXY's price can rise much higher before becoming as overextended as it was the last time it was priced at this level. If we conclude that OXY's price is poised to go much higher, what does this say about the future? What might spiraling energy prices say about the Federal Reserve's, and other central banks', ability to fight inflation? By buying OXY while the Fed is trying to fight inflation, is Warren Buffet fighting the Fed? What might higher energy prices say about supply issues in the long term? Might higher energy prices reflect a prolonged period of deglobalization, or perhaps, something worse like geopolitical conflict? What might the consequences of higher energy prices be for climate change? Will higher energy prices incentive more investment in alternative energy options like solar, wind, nuclear and hydrogen? One thing is for certain: The scope of monetary easing that we saw over the past couple of decades is unprecedented in history, and it has created an asset bubble that is unfathomable. I will leave you with two additional charts. One shows how low U.S. GDP growth has been over the past couple of decades, and yet how high its stock market has climbed due to monetary easing. How do you soft land a stock market that's risen into the stratosphere? By pushing it gently to the surface of the moon.
NYSE:OXY
by SpyMasterTrades
10
Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs UkraineJust a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years. The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway. It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved. IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway. The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups. Tim 9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
NYMEX:CL2!
by timwest
6
BCOUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 27th Sept 2022On the H4 chart, prices are moving in a descending manner hence we are bearish biased. Price is also below the Ichimoku cloud which adds confluence to the bearish market. We are looking for a retracement sell entry at 88.639 where the 50% Fibonacci line and 100% Projection line are. Stop loss will be at 93.423 where the previous swing high is. Take profit is 83.024 where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by Rockqet
2
Crude falls again amid demand concernsWith foreign currencies tumbling, anything traded in US dollars will cost more... such as oil. Unsurprisingly, crude oil has been unable to hold onto earlier gains, and has turned lower as the demand outlook deteriorates further. There’s also another risk that is not being discussed much in the markets right now: a full-blown emerging market (EM) currency crisis. They are falling one after another. Turkish lira, Indian and Pakistan’s rupees, Chinese yuan, you name it. With all these currencies tumbling, so does the purchasing powers from those nations. Among the EM currencies, the Turkish lira has been under the spotlight after it tumbled to a fresh low against the dollar, as the Fed hiked rates by 0.75% while the CBRT cut rates by 1 percent last week. More pain is likely now for the lira, given how bad the inflation situation is there right now. With a weakening currency and rising USD, imports of crude oil and other key commodities are going to cost more. It is a similar story for other EM markets, and not just EM (UK, eurozone etc.) Consumer and business spending is going to get squeezed even more. The outlook for oil thus remains bearish. WTI has turned lower after testing testing the $80 handle. Expect the selling pressure to continue... By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
USOIL - Similarities between 2008 and nowLast week, our short-term price target of 80 USD was reached. Because of that, we would like to reiterate that we remain bearish on USOIL. In addition to that, we maintain our long-term price target of 70 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the similarity between the oil price pattern in 2008 and now. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
25