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USOIL - An attempt to support the price failsOn 17th August 2022, we warned that the oil market might be positioning itself for a downtrend correction. Accordingly, we said we would pay close attention to the sloping resistance and a potential breakout above it. Then, a few days later, the breakout occurred, and the price of USOIL spiked to 97.65 USD. Meanwhile, we abandoned our bearish price targets due to the OPEC considering production cuts. However, we also stated that the retracement (below the sloping resistance) could be utilized as short position re-entry. Finally, after the OPEC announcement, we said the production cut would have a minimal impact on the market. So today, we would like to update price targets for USOIL. Our new short-term price target is 80 USD, and our long-term price target is 70 USD. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL. It also depicts the bullish breakout above the sloping support/resistance and subsequent bearish retracement. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates the most recent bearish breakout. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
26
WTI oil - 80 USD in sight Since our last update on oil, much has not changed. Therefore, we continue to be bearish on USOIL and stick to our short-term price target of 80 USD and a long-term price target of 70 USD. Our views are based on technical and fundamental factors we reiterated throughout 2022. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two yellow arrows that indicate natural price retracements toward its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA (which acted as a correction of the downtrend). Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
6
CRUDE OIL'S RELATIONSHIP TO $SPX500What I would like to reveal with these two charts, the Crude Oil market ($USDWTI) and the US Stock Market ($SPX500) using a 22-day chart (monthly) is the link between them and how we can utilize large drops in Crude Oil to help us to find support levels in the S&P500 Index. In order to help us see crude oil inflation adjusted, I divided Crude by the CPI Index. You can see right away that Crude oil is less than it was back in 1984 and about in the middle of the range over the last 35 years. Large declines in Crude Oil are shown by Yellow shaded boxes and by Green Triangles. I labeled the price peaks in crude oil, and transferred those to the S&P500 so you can see the dates are an exact match. I then added Yellow Boxes to the right of the green boxes to extend the support level forward in time so you can see how the market finds support at the level where crude oil prices had fallen dramatically in the prior cycle. What's the point here? Large drops in crude oil have the effect of increasing profits in the economy and act as a stimulus to encourage spending in the economy. Money that would have flowed out of the country to purchase oil from foreign countries instead gets spent again and again in a multiplier cycle to increase measured economic activity. In the short run, crude oil often is seen as a coincident indicator revealing that there is enough strength in the economy, and thus stock prices, to support higher crude oil prices. It's a common refrain from media commentators and it has it's base in logic in the short run. In the long run, large declines in crude oil are great for the stock market and large increases in the price of oil are a giant destroyer of stock market values. Notice the 1999 to 2008 run up in Oil prices which coincided with the giant bubble in real estate prices and its subsequent decline which decimated the banking system and people's faith in the financial system. Do you see how it also makes sense that as oil prices increased, it damaged the profitability of companies and of the economy as a whole? As the price of oil increased, we needed to devote an ever increasing quantity of time and resources to find more oil to feed the economy, which by its mere nature, is unproductive. It's as if you had to spend your entire evening cutting up wood outside so you could stay warm "inside your house" so you can get real work done. Cash flowed out of the US to foreign nations to secure energy and less was available for the local economy. Also, investors lined up resources to grow the energy supply, which also took capital away from other projects. Bankers love to finance a sure thing like oil. Let's look again at 2016 when oil prices collapsed down to $24 a barrel in February that year. There was near panic as it was feared that the banks that invested in oil related projects would default and go bankrupt. But you can also see that was a FERTILE TIME to buy stocks since the drop in oil was an economic boost to free up consumer spending and drive activity up, up, up. Later in 2016 there was a little thing that happened too, the Presidential Election and the hopes that tax rates would be cut. That's similar to another time and is the subject of another chart I posted over two years ago here. The last point to make is that I overlayed the 1986 plunge in oil prices with the plunge in 2008-2009 and I couldn't help but notice how the action after that plunge has repeated itself so far to date. Time will tell, but there seems to be another long drop in the price of crude ahead. If the price of crude gets too high, out comes supply and knocks it down. If the price gets too low, we use it up and drive the economy and then we end up using it too fast. It's an old cycle and it will continue forever. Cheers. Tim West 11/14/2019. 11:03PM EST
FX_IDC:USDWTI
by timwest
15
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?The terms "bullish" and "bearish" when used on Twitter and TradingView and in the media are more or less just poorly positioned synonyms for "going up" or "going down." Yet, it's a misnomer because some of the craziest pumps you'll ever see are during bear markets, and some of the craziest dump-a-thons you'll ever endure are during the most parabolic bull markets. Right now, the energy world is ablaze because the Russian Federation has more or less cut Europe out of Nord Stream 1 while Europe is already in the middle of an exceptional energy crisis, wrought by its own choices to follow the globalist-communist bloc in trying to punish Putin for a war in Ukraine that roots back to more than a decade of U.S.-NATO-led pot-stirring. News like this causes Europe's natural gas futures to print remarkably stupid prices, making a huge amount of widows from those who were trading short, and energy companies who are paying those prices and yet cannot charge those prices to the end user because of socialist command economy policies placed by the government. However, for North America's Henry Hub futures, Europe needing gas doesn't really help, because the Freeport terminal that's really the only place that LNG gets exported in any meaningful quantity blew up in July. It was supposed to come back online in October. And yet, news of its delay until at least November already printed on Aug. 23. Taking a look at the monthly, you can see that NG is still, really, historically cheap: The Biden Administration is going to donate a great quantity of natural gas to Europe once Freeport is back online. In my view, we're going to see a new all-time high print. Something that starts with the number "2." But before we get there, it's important to keep a cool head, and ask yourself: if Freeport has been offline since July and was set to come back online in October, why does price meander in this $8-9.50 range so early? Taking a look at the weekly provides some context: Before Freeport blew up in the first place, NG was flirting with $9. Once it blew up, it immediately took a three week liquidation spree to $5.50, with the worst part of that trip occurring on the final day of June as monthly futures contracts settled. Then it bounced. And for a commodity whose market maker usually likes to whip it up and down and gap up and gap down with violence on daily and weekly opens, it really just went in a straight line back to $9. Expanding down to the daily, it's even more obvious how much this traded like the SPX500 does when the Fed's money printer is doing work so that 75 year old men can mash buy and take a nap: And now here we are, entering the second week of September post-Labor Day. All the propaganda outlets and pundits crank the sirens, chanting, "Europe Natural Gas Utilities Crisis Russia Gazprom Texas Heatwave High Pressure Heat Dome California Electric Grid Shortage!!!" And all of that is true, just like all of that was true for WTI Crude when it traded at $125 for two months. And yet somehow, despite the fundamentals and all the pundits calling for $180 and $350 BECAUSE REASON S, oil is down 30% and it still isn't finished dumping. So, why is it? It's not hard to figure out. It really isn't. Retail buys high because they see confirmation that something is going up, and then panic sells when it gets rugged. And then when it goes back up they mash buy at a higher price than they sold at because of "Fear of Missing Out," and then they don't sell when they're in profit because their target on the SPX is 12,836 because Gann and Elliot said so, and everyone wants to be that guy you hear about who bought Google at $2 and held it for 20 years while playing golf. If Shell or Exxon traded like that, they would be bankrupt, none of us would have electricity to read these words, and we'd all either die from heat exhaustion or freeze to death without AC and furnaces. The reality is that when NG dumped at the end of July, it still didn't dump deep enough to enter a discount in this overall trading range. We've simply been watching what is still currently the 7th straight week of premium trading. If Natural Gas is going to go to $20 when Biden starts donating energy to save NATO's European arms, it really would make a lot more sense if some time were spent so companies and funds could accumulate a significant position at a relative discount. And indeed, there are at least two fat and curiously unchallenged double bottoms presented in the 4H chart that just happen to be in the sub-50% dealing range and at a price so low that it will have margin calling and leave ZeroHedge and Javier Blas from Bloomberg and friends in bewildered disbelief as to how energy commodities aren't worth anything "in a recession." I often say that what a person thinks can happen and what is actually happening in this world and this Universe are simply two totally different things. A human being is heavily deceived by the slow grind of time and the ostensible appearance before their eyes. Reality, on the other hand, simply follows a certain law and it will complete itself according to that law no matter how anyone cries about it. Whoever is in harmony with the law will establish themselves, and whoever is afoul of the law will get liquidated. The caveat to this chart is time. I can only fit so many 4H candles in a window and so the time on this chart only extends into early October. These lower prices, if they really come, could happen later in October or even in November. And while it'll really be quite the opportunity, it's also a "second mouse gets the cheese" kind of thing for those who are trying to get long for the moon at $7 and $6.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
8
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
1
Crude Oil in 1H time Frame.Hi Everyone, Please see updated 1H chart High Probability to test the resistance. my updated from 4H before i try to always we will keep you all updated . Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, i really appreciate you support ! Goodluck i'll help you to have a great trade. Please using good money management. dont take any emotional trade. Note: Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market Wish good luck for all people. Please help support me by Clicking like button, and if you like my ideas please follow me and support me. i Relly Appreciate it! i'll make more and more great analysis if this chanel grows. on Gold , Oil , Nasdaq, SP500 , and some American, China, Japan, Indonesia stocks. Best luck for you. Cheers mate! Thankyou.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LaurentWilvyne
2
Crude Oil dropping contrary to fundamental expectations?. Crude Oil D1 4-9-22: - Fundamentally there are lots of reasons to expect higher prices - Seasonals and technicals however point to more downside Seasonal: - Seasonally Oil tends to be weak in Q4 - Weakness started earlier this year so might end earlier also (NOV-midterms ?) Pivot Points: - Monthly: Price is below SEP Monthly Pivot, heading for S2 = <80.00 - Quarterly : Q3 predicts a run from QPP to QS1 = Yearly Open = Monthly Range Low = 50% retrace of upswing = 75.00 VWAP: - Yearly VWAP has been broken lower - Quarterly VWAP in now in charge - Need a convincing break above QVWAP in order to turn bullish again Correlation: - CADJPY normally follows Oil closely, now big divergence - Divergence probably due to extreme YEN-weakness - Gives reason for a closer look into CADJPY .
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by xtrader1