Should the CRUDE OIL rally from here_UPDATE!! I had posted a view on Crude oil that wave v should begin and rally till around 97$ mark a few days back.
Here is a more detailed 4hour chart of the same with updated and detailed wave counts as to give you the idea what my views are on the same.
Not gonna lie the fall below 76$ mark was not anticipated and did give a chill but the crucial wave 1 high of 74.69 was protected(and so was my wave count:)).
74.96 was the 4th wave low(yday's low).
The view remains the same till now with a slight modification of the target to 95$ now.
74.69 can even be used as a SL(since if this is violated that would indicate much more downside in Crude and make it pointless trying to go long on it)
Note*_ This view is based on personal observations and opinions. Please access your own risk and analyze any instrument thoroughly before taking up any financial positions.
Crudelong
CL - Crude Oil Bold CallOh my..I think something big is on the way.
Let's first look at what we see on the chart:
It's a long-term chart, where each candlestick represents 3 months. Why did I take 3 months? Because I wanted to see the big picture.
Look at the red frame.
This is a daily chart, and with all the candles going up and down like a rollercoaster, it's messy and will keep you up all night.
The yellow chart is the same, but here I have only taken the swings and hidden the bars. And that's real peace of mind. It's clean and shows you where the real pivots are.
Let's go to the main chart.
The pitchfork goes back to the low we had in the 80s. This is the anchor for the A point. Then the top for B and the negative for C.
Do you see how the middle line catches the resistance and the support? What else? It's clean too. Going up in the time frame hides the noise.
From now on, the last 3 candles also have support at the centre line. And if I apply Human-AI-Pattern-Recognition (...what a word ;-), then I see a potential huge run-up towards the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel).
Another fact that supports this thesis is that the USD has the potential to fall (see DXY analysis). And of course there will be other economic influences that will throw "oil" into the fire... kinda weird §8-)
However, as we can never have the whole cake and eat it too quickly without the cook cutting off our fingers, we have to wait for the first break of the last swing high, which can be clearly seen in the yellow frame.
Or we can start building a position now, taking on more risk but being rewarded with huge upside potential over the next few years.
However, my position with this analysis will be very long term. How will I play it? I don't know yet, but I'm considering building a CL monster with Black Magic Options Voodoo §8-)
Hope this helps and have a relaxing weekend.
Time to enter Crude longs again? Perfect entry point from technical point of view, I suggested this trade before too.
You should target $71 and $74 as TPS.
The market will tighten in the second half of 2023 partly due to ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts and Saudi Arabia's voluntary reduction for July. The combination of robust demand reduced exports, and a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories suggests a positive outlook for the crude oil market.
Detailed Trading Signal Sharing of Crude Oil on MondayIn terms of crude oil, the daily line rebounded on Friday, and the previous low of 64.1 had strong first-line support, forming a double-bottom pattern. Crude oil on Monday focuses on the position above 70.0, with a stop loss of 69.2, and the target is above 72.6-73.0; sell backhand empty orders near the pressure line of 73.8 above!
Crude oil is steadily making profits every dayCombined with the trend of the hourly chart, U.S. oil continued to stay high and fluctuate within a narrow range after pulling up yesterday. This state indicates that the market may rebound again, but whether the top can break through 74, and whether it can press 75.5-7 is irrelevant. It's too easy to judge, after all, this wave of recovery still seems very sudden.
In terms of operation, choose to wait and see conservatively within the day, and try to operate long and then short if you are aggressive, that is, a retracement around 72.2-72 within the day, aggressive short positions and long positions, set a stop loss at 71.5, and target at 73.5-74. Hold a single to see the 74 competition, and if it breaks through, keep watching the 75.5-7 test expectation.
There may be resistance around 74 above the top within the day, but whether you can fight short or short depends on the actual situation. However, 75.5-7 above can still be regarded as the key pressure. If the pressure measurement reaches this point today, you can try short-term participation.
For detailed suggestions, you can join my circle to view. In a word!
Follow my footsteps if you want to make money, you won't be disappointed Jesus said
CL - Crude Oil At Bounce PointCL reached the extremes short term.
From here I expect a bounce up, with a potential to the yellow CL (Center Line).
The idea is supported by the Stochastic, where the faster is overbought and the longterm is sloping up.
Risking small, aiming big, that's what I do in CL.
In contrarian I take profits quickly if it's not playing out like I want.
CRUDE OIL – Futures: Buying Within The Range Of Pin Bar Signal CRUDE OIL – Futures: Buying Within The Range Of Pin Bar Signal
Price Action: Price moved slightly higher from the Bullish Pin Bar Signal that had formed late last week (We suggested trading this signal in the May 20th, daily newsletter).
Price moved higher from the recent Bullish Pin Bar Signal that had formed over a week ago (We did not consider trading this signal).
Price moved higher from within the range of the recent Bullish Tailed Bar Signal that had formed just above the $95.43 short-term support level around four weeks ago (We suggested trading the pullback to this signal in the May 1st, weekly newsletter and hopefully some traders got on board).
Potential Trade Idea 1: For more aggressive traders, we are considering buying on a retracement lower to within the range of the prior Bullish Pin Bar Signal that had formed last Thursday, May 19th.
Potential Trade Idea 2: We are considering buying on a retracement lower whilst price remains above the recent Bullish Tailed Bar Signal that had formed just above the $95.43 short-term support level.
Crude Oil Battery LoadingFirst of all we see that the uptrend is not broken so far.
They washed the longs out (red box), made a new high and then dropped with a "Scary Drop" to flush the new longs out again. Nice how they came down to the center line.
Now, back above the CL, it seems that the Battery is loading again. However, the could make a new low of course. But in this current environment, I'l put my chips to the long side.
Thus, I expect a new move to the north.
In the Futures, the spreads are mostly insane currently. So I only trade super light, in case of a X-Sigma move against my position. The Micro Futures are OK for me. They give a trader also the possiblity to not only have one position, but to scale in. This minimize the risk and if done right, can multiple the reward (aka Reverse Pyramiding).
So, let's find out wasup in a couple hours from now.
CL1! - Crude Oil To $2001. The slope of the blue slanted lines are derived from the two consecutive lows.
2. Then this line is projected to the next highest, and in time farthest point.
3. The slope catches the low of the -$40 level.
4. When projected backwards, we see that a high in the past is catched by the lines.
5. The lines catch the bounce.
6. A high potential target is the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
However, price could bounce back to the white Center Line, as it usually does. From there chances are 50/50 that price breaks down through the center line, or continues to the upside. In this scenario, the target would be above the $200 mark.
CL1! - Crude Oil is building a 0-5 PumpWe see that CL came down to the grey centerline.
From there it zoomed through, pulled back (pin bar) and then missed the lower line (L-MLH). That meant "Hagopian" = price pushes back farther than from where it came. And it did.
Now price is "pumping" in 0-5 formation, a nice flag.
If you zoom in to the 240min. TF you see how it unfolds.
My personal preference is, to wait until P5 is reached.
Then, when it takes off to the north, I' pretty confident that we will reach the yellow centerline, short term. Of course, the grey horizontal acts as resistance and could produce a scary pullback, shaking weak hands out.
And finally, let's not forget that the Saudis told in the media, that traders better don't short crude for now...
Le'ts see how it works.
Crude oil daytradeWhen we look at the chart we can see that the price is touching a support zone in the hourly chart.
I am personally going to go long for now with the SL just below the Support zone and my Tp at the top of the previous high we can see.
Daytrade-execution
Entry: 64.03
Stop loss: 63.5
Take profit: 66.50
Risk-Reward: 4.6
Oil Long PositionOil Long Position
🔵 Entry: $62.19
🟢 TP & RR: $63.55 (2.62)
⛔ Stop Loss: $61.67
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
✔️ Resistance flipped to support
✔️ Fairly strong volume upwards
📝 I am expecting price to consolidate around the entry level and then continue trending up. Even if this long fails, I certainly don't feel comfortable shorting the trend on a move upwards (or at least until I see some divergence).