Preparing to go long on USOILThe key to this setup is the emotional candle(big candle) circled in white. when most traders see such candles they pull the trigger(FOMO). i have come to realize that the key to trading is waiting. After the emotional candle the market started pulling back and the sellers came in, at the moment price is in a mini range i am waiting to see if the buyers will take it up again. The overall trend on my Higher time frame(Daily) is up and price is at broken resistance looking to turn support(54.77-57.98). Will this area hold or give in?
Crudelong
US Oil - Inverse Head & Shoulders. Big PotentialUS OIL - As you can see on the chart, we have a clear inverse head and shoulders, we don't have a break yet which is definitely what is needed before considering a buy here.
We would want to see a daily close above the neckline and a pullback to test the neckline as support on the lower time frames such as the H4 / H1.
This looks bottomed out and OIL is presenting a high probable technical set up.
Always remember your risk management, the probability of a win here is large, yes the stop seems tight but a break back below the neckline would fail the set up and would see us cut losses a lot earlier.
Active trade management is super important.
Don't let Trump talk fool you....crude's going higherIf you've followed me over the last little while you'd know that I've been bullish crude oil for the last 6 motnhs and man it's been and exciting ride! Good news is I don't think we're done yet! So there's still time to get in on the party.
My long term view is crude to 90 :D Although that's a ways off, and we might need to see some consolidation/retracement/market confusion before getting there. So what's happened so far? We formed a major support region in the 63.10 area and have recently broken out. I would typically expect us to continue higher, with the next targets at 71.50 and 75.50 respectively. Right now this my general outlook, and I'll be waiting for an entry to form this week expecting higher prices through the week. If it doesn't happen, I'll reevaluate before looking for a new long.
So what do you think? Am I crazy to be so bullish? We've already moved so far...will it keep going? Share with me your charts, ideas, and comments! Love to hear other traders opinions!
Peace, love, and sweet bamboo,
tbp
Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
CL - Crudes Next Trip To The Long SideAction/Reaction lines seem to catch the frequency of crude.
Also, price stoped dead at the WL1.
How ever - it's probably too early to think of a trade.
Observation hat on...
P!
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WTI: Crude Boy testing the resistance of weekly chart to break Crude Oil reached one of the most important resistance of LONG term.
WTI Crude Oil futures price seems to reflect the growing hopes of resolving major issues with Russian President’s visit to Iran, which may provide new dimensions to demand-supply equation of the WTI Crude Oil price.
On the weekly chart, we can clearly see the picture.
Breakout of 55 USD will confirm 60.00 USD midterm. We have reached our first main target 55 USD. My prediction was Bullish with the targets, 55, 58 and 60.
News from Reuters gives us a clue about the direction:
Reuters: Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will hike December crude prices for customers in Asia to levels last seen in 2013 or 2014, a Reuters survey showed, with OPEC-led output cuts and robust demand re-balancing markets for the commodity.
The producer is expected to raise flagship Arab Light’s December official selling price to at least 90 cents a barrel above Oman/Dubai quotes, the survey of five refiners showed. That would be the highest premium since $1.65 in September 2014, according to Reuters data.
Prices for heavier grades may see a bigger boost in December, the survey showed, with Arab Heavy’s OSP set to rise to at least $1.30 below Oman-Dubai quotes. That would be the narrowest discount for Saudi heavy crude since minus $1.05 in December 2013, according to Reuters data.
Daily Chart:
55.46 and 56.35 are the first targets. Possible pullback levels 54.25, 53.90 and 53.51.
I am keeping all my LONG positions. I will add LONG with the daily closing above 55.30.
Pullback levels mentioned above are buying opportunities.
WTI Crude Oil futures weekly closing price level on November 3rd, 2017 will provide an important clue about the movement of WTI Crude Oil futures price’s direction during the upcoming weeks.
WTI Crude Oil ForecastOil prices settled higher in see-saw trade on Friday, as political tensions in the Kurdistan region continued to disrupt crude supplies.
Oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan were flowing at average rates of 216,000 barrels per day versus the usual flows of 600,000 bpd, a shipping source said.
The supply disruption in Iraq comes amid ongoing political uncertainty in the region following conflict between Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Iraqi troops marched toward Northern Iraq earlier in week and regained control of two major oilfields from Kurdish forces.
The global benchmark ended the week with an increase of approximately 1%, supported by growing indications that the market was starting to rebalance.
In a speech Thursday, Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said that the oil market is balancing at an “accelerated pace,” and demand will continue to rapidly grow in coming decades.
But; we need to keep in our minds that OPEC needs to extend its agreement to reduce oil output beyond its current March 2018 expiry date in order to rebalance the market.
Technically:
We have LONG positions and Friday we entered a LONG trade by using the pullbacks.
Our Crude boy insists on playing in its playground. The supply zone of 51.00-52.20. As I mentioned in my previous articles several times a) pullbacks towards 49.60 are buying opportunities b) Crude needs to make H4 closings above 52.20 to continue its upward movement. Breakout of this supply zone will carry the price 53.60.
What are the pullback levels to add LONG positions? a) 51.56 which is EMA 50; MMath Pivot Reverse 2/8 and Kumo Support of H4 Chart. b) 51.00-50.80 Fibo 61.80% and EMA 100 of H4 Chart.
Long trading opportunity in Crude Oil (Elliott Wave)It look like Crude has just completed a Ending Diagonal and also broken the upper trendline.
If this is an Ending Diagonal then we can expect Crude to make new highs from here on.
SL : Below 46.40
Target : Last Swing high
It looks like a good long opportunity from a Risk to Reward perspective, I will update as this market continues.
Crude Oil propagating in Wave 4 (Elliott Wave Analysis)As of now I'm considering the Bearish count in Crude Oil as it seems to be the one being followed.
It seems that we are moving up to complete the circled Wave 4 around the 45.70 level and then down for the 5th, it is possible that I might have to make a change in degree of progression but that does not affect the trading plan.
I will update further as this market progresses.
Possible Expanding Diagonal in Crude Oil (Elliott Wave Analysis)It seems that Crude is in the last stages of what I see as an Expanding Ending Diagonal. I will wait for confirmation however as this market has already fallen below the 61.8% mark of the previous up swing.
I will update further as this market progresses.
Crude Oil : Looks like the bottom is set (Elliott Wave Analysis)In the last update on Crude I discussed the possibility that a bottom might be forming, since then the market gave the 5th leg down and now to me it seems like the bottom has formed.
I'm already long in this market and the SL is below the recent swing low.
As this is the starting of a 3rd Wave hence I expect strong movements from here on.
If this market moves as expected then I will look to add more to my positions.
I will discuss the targets in a later post.
Please note that this is not an investment advice and I will not take liability for any profit or loss that you might incur from using the above view.
Crude Oil correction seems done, bulls waiting (Elliott Wave)As per the given chart it seems that the correction is complete as the 5 Wave leg down seems to be very precise.
Also note the red zone that I have drawn represents the most probable support zone for the fall and the market has taken support just above it.
It is possible that the 5 th Wave of this Wave C correction might take it a little lower, in that case the boundary of this Red box should offer the support.
Important support zone 48.70 to 47. (Red box)
In all likely cases Crude Oil is a buy on dips market.
I will update further as the market progresses.