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Crudeoil!

Oil is heading for $80Light Crude Oil (CL) is showing bullish signs after the confirmation of an upside break of the long term downtrend line “K” at $73. Now the contract is hitting the resistance of $76 where if it breaks to the upside then the space that can be stretched "unfortunately" goes up to $80. Above that, inflation alarm bells will start to ring. It is a thorny element that can spoil the upward momentum of the markets since it will make central bankers more frugal in their decisions to further reduce interest rates. For something to change here, the contract will have to declare a strong weakness of permeability at the level of $76 to $77.
NYMEX:CL1!
by manthos
CL Week Review 01/06/25 - 01/10/25Looks like my Directional Bias for CL was off. Instead of price coming lower to fill in the BISI and take the PDLs it rallied higher through the Volume Imbalance and raided all the BSL. Now that wick higher on Friday did not stop at a random spot. Look closely and you will notice its the Premium Daily 50% CE level of the wick and price reversed nicely off from there. Now the question remains does price justify to continue higher and take the BSL at 78.46 or does price reverse from there and then target the SSL and the D BISI? Currently its still looking Bullish since price closed above the Volume Imbalance and the PDH from Thu Oct 10 2024 at 76.24 but lets see how price opens on Sunday and we can definitely expect a volatile week since there is a good amount of economic news drivers.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ProphetTheTrader
CRUDE OIL // long ideaThe trend is long on the weekly, the daily, and the H4, and H4 seems to close above the long trigger line (green), that is the last clean H4 breakdown. If this happens, the daily target fibo 138.2 in line with a daily breakdown is the target. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. Level colors: Daily - blue Weekly - purple Monthly - magenta H4 - aqua Long trigger - green Short trigger - red ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
FX:USOILLong
by TheMarketFlow
USOUSD (Oil) Key support follow up.Thanks for checking our latest update, and happy new year to all. Today, we have followed up on our last oil update. You can see this update on the link below. The main topic of the last update was a key support area. The area held, and we saw a new rally develop. Today, we have looked at that rally and asked if it's going to break the long-term downtrend or if we could see price contnue to remain rangebound. We see short-term resistance at $74.75 and short-term support at $73.20. As always, traders must remain vigilant and stay abreast of the latest updates from OPEC and geopolitical influences, as these factors can significantly impact the market. Good trading from Eightcap.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed flat due to the U.S. stock market holiday and early futures market closure. The MACD has fallen below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating continued selling pressure. Today's non-farm payroll data will be a key event, as it may determine whether the Nasdaq breaks below the 60-day moving average and continues its decline. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal lines remain below the zero line, indicating a persistent bearish trend. This suggests a possibility of further sharp declines, potentially expanding the divergence. Ahead of the data release, the pre-market is likely to remain range-bound. Focus on range-trading strategies but manage risks carefully as the non-farm payroll data approaches. Oil Oil closed higher, finding support near the 240-day moving average on the daily chart. After facing initial resistance around the $75 level, oil found support at the 240-day moving average, indicating a strong chance of another attempt to break above $75. Additionally, support near the 10-day moving average suggests the potential for another upward wave. On the 240-minute chart, a buying attempt is evident as the MACD moves closer to the Signal line. The chart resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern, where the neckline provides support, and the price may be attempting to form the right shoulder. Whether oil will surge beyond $75 remains uncertain, as the divergence in the MACD on the 240-minute chart and potential for time correction on the daily chart suggest caution. Avoid chasing prices at the highs; instead, confirm a breakout before taking action. Overall, buying on dips is the preferred strategy. Gold Yesterday, gold closed higher, continuing its upward trend on the daily chart. The MACD is approaching the zero line, and today's non-farm payroll data will determine whether gold moves above the zero line to resume a bullish trend or sharply reverses, resulting in a MACD dead cross and a bearish trend. On the 240-minute chart, the bullish momentum remains strong, but upcoming events such as today's data and next week's CPI report could create a turning point. Given the potential for trend changes, it’s better to react to established trends. While the short-term trend is strong, range-bound movement in the pre-market is possible, so trade accordingly. Buying on dips remains a favorable approach. As we approach the end of the trading week on Friday, heightened volatility is expected due to the non-farm payroll data. Manage risks carefully, and may you have a successful trading day! ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21,190 / 21,120 / 21,065 / 20,990 / 20,945 -Sell Levels: 21,315 / 21,360 / 21,410 / 21,500 Oil - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 73.90 / 73.50 / 73.00 -Sell Levels: 74.80 / 75.20 / 75.60 / 76.40 Gold - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 2,685 / 2,681 / 2,676 / 2,670 / 2,665 / 2,661 -Sell Levels: 2,700 / 2,705 / 2,710 / 2,716 These strategies are applicable only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are set as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower. On the daily chart, the MACD has fallen below the zero line, signaling continued selling pressure. If the 60-day moving average support level is broken, it would be prudent to prepare for a drop toward the monthly 5-day moving average and potentially the 120-day moving average, depending on market conditions. However, with the U.S. stock market closed today and the futures market closing early, trading is expected to be light, and the trend direction will likely become clearer after Friday’s non-farm payroll data release. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal lines have moved below the zero line, indicating stronger selling pressure. Sell-side strategies are recommended, and given the early market closure, taking quick profits would be advisable. Oil Oil faced resistance near its previous high and closed with a bearish candle. Due to the rapid surge toward its previous high, a short-term correction appears inevitable. Maintaining support at the 240-day moving average will be crucial. The need to align short-term moving averages such as the 20-day and 60-day with current price levels suggests a period of price and time correction is likely. On the 240-minute chart, a long upper wick has formed, resembling the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern. A neckline could form near the 240-day moving average, potentially leading to a rebound that forms the right shoulder. Given the wide divergence between the MACD and Signal lines from the zero line, another attempt at an upward move seems plausible. Buying on dips near key support levels is the preferred strategy. Gold Gold closed higher. The daily chart indicates a consolidation phase within a range, and market conditions suggest that trends will become clearer after Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Currently, a buy signal is visible on the daily chart, meaning any downward move may require a sharp decline, potentially driven by Friday’s data or next week’s CPI report. On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal remains intact. Buying on dips is advisable, although the divergence between the MACD and Signal lines is relatively small. For gold to gain momentum, a significant breakout with a strong bullish candle would be essential. For now, range-bound strategies are recommended, favoring selling at highs rather than chasing prices upward. Today's Market Notes The U.S. stock market is closed today, and the futures market has an early close. With reduced volatility, a mixed and range-bound market is expected. Please trade with caution and aim for success! ■ Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21,270 / 21,190 / 21,155 / 21,065 / 20,990 -Sell Levels: 21,410 / 21,500 / 21,550 Oil - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 72.80 / 71.90 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.40 / 74.80 / 75.20 Gold - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 2,670 / 2,665 / 2,661 / 2,654 / 2,649 -Sell Levels: 2,686 / 2,693 / 2,704 / 2,710 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Crude oil Is Approaching ResistanceCrude oil is coming higher on 4h time frame, out of a wave B bullish triangle that we have been tracking through December. Well, we know that moves out of a triangle are final in a sequence, so we can expect limited upside, and ideally, this will cause the completion of wave E rally of a larger bearish triangle pattern. It's now approaching an important resistance at 74-75, its gap from mid-October, right at the upper side of a triangle. There is a chance for a turn soon. A triangle appears to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. The triangle pattern contains five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled A-B-C-D-E. It’s a region of horizontal price movement, a consolidation of a prior move, and it is composed of “threes.” That means each of the A-B-C-D-E waves have three subwaves. The triangle pattern is generally categorized as a continuation pattern, meaning that after the pattern completes, it’s assumed that the price will continue in the trend direction it was moving before the pattern appeared. However, triangles also indicate that the final leg is coming before a reversal and that’s why triangles are labeled in wave B, wave X or wave 4.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by ew-forecast
Natural Gas - Supply and DemandAs previously iterated in my writings on crude oil NYMEX:CL1! here and here , my opinion is that conditions favor a bull market in energy products. Crude Oil has gained a few points since the time of publishing, and Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! appears poised to follow suit. As seen below, most energy markets ( NYMEX:CL1! , NYMEX:NG1! , ICEEUR:BRN1! , NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX:MBA1! ) have rallied in the last year. The most active, and volatile of the energy products shown in the above chart is Natural Gas $NYMEX:NG1!. There are many reasons it may have rallied since the 2nd quarter of 2020, such as an energy crisis in Texas, and war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Increasing up to 500% at one point in the last 5 years, though the price has backed off we still observe the market making new highs. There are some very serious considerations in oil and gas, which do not appear to have been of any consideration. Just yesterday, US president Joe Biden elected to place a ban on all future leases on offshore drilling operations. Though he has cited a transition to clean energy as a suitable alternative, there is not much reason for markets to believe him. As mentioned, back in 2021 an unexpected cold snap in Texas led to panic in domestic energy markets as generators and suppliers were unable to meet demand. According to statistics published domestically all around the world including the USA, it is indicated that inflation has subsided as central banks lower rates. Yet as we can see, Natural Gas in the US in particular has continued to rally, and what's more the futures curve indicates market participants expect the price to continue to rise into 2027. This is in spite of the increasing strength of the US Dollar TVC:DXY , which may weigh against the price of Natural Gas. www.bruegel.org In Europe, the situation surrounding the availability of energy products may be even more alarming. Ukraine has elected to not negotiate terms for an extension of a natural gas contract with Russia. There are many pipelines from Russia which supply much of Europe with natural gas, both offshore and through Ukraine. Much of which will have passed through Ukraine and Belarus, since the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. As such much of Europe's energy in the last couple years has been Suppled by the USA, though a significant sum from Russia has continued to be supplied through Ukraine. Considering that the US has just made the decision to reduce it's future supply of natural gas, it seems unlikely that it will be able to supply Europe at the same price. In terms of future uncertainty, we can also look at Canada. A major supplier of energy products globally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to step down, though an election is not slated until October. With Donald Trump taking office in just 13 days, and threatening tariffs, we might anticipate the lack of clear governance over continental trade will have a negative impact on the stability of natural gas markets. In face of volatility and a decreased future demand, North-American as well as European energy markets seem poised to take a strong bullish stance. Besides pipelines, a great deal of import/export in natural gas is done in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Due to violence in the Red Sea, carriers of LNG in particular have opted to take the longer route around the horn of Africa. The politics surrounding commercial maritime shipping have become very complicated in the last year, between terrorist attacks, union strikes, blocked shipping lanes and an (allegedly) poor prognosis for the Panama Canal. Which is to express, without bearing too heavy on details of the politics of maritime law, that the future has become uncertain. Since 2022 interest rates have been rising, and as such commercial shipping insurance rates have been rising, war clauses notwithstanding. Since insurance companies are at liberty to play politics, it should leave no doubt in a speculators' mind that they will. Already lobbying efforts have begun to remove EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, for the effect they have had on oceanic insurance. This issue is further discussed in my first post on crude oil. See below the price of Natural gas in the UK over the last year. Natural gas consumption worldwide has been on the rise for the past several decades, as it is sought after as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude oil derivatives. It must be considered that beyond supplying energy to the public, this commodity plays an important role in industrial processes and manufacturing. The effect of a reduced supply encompasses a gross majority of the global economy. In fact it is so obvious that the price will rise, the only bear argument I can surmise might be a global conspiracy against energy and the trading of energy products, thus rendering their useless and of little worth. Given the sweeping measures imposed by Biden just 14 days before the end of his presidency, traders should beware of capital controls imposed on these markets. While I am wholly bullish on this market, on every basis from technical to fundamental, it is a SERIOUS risk that trading in these markets will be prohibited through political measures. Sovereign debt is mounting, and inflation threatens to critically exacerbate the issue of interest rates. That being said, markets are markets. Thanks for reading. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so" -Mark Twain
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by FPS_Denny
Analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower due to disappointment following Nvidia's new product announcement. On the daily chart, the MACD failed to converge with the Signal line, turning downward, and strong selling pressure emerged. If the weekly chart shows a candle with an upper wick breaking below the 10-day moving average, a dead cross on the MACD is likely. On the daily chart, the index has found support twice at the 60-day moving average. However, if it breaks below this level during the current selling wave, there’s potential for further declines toward the monthly 5-day moving average at 20,880. The 240-minute chart has triggered a sell signal around the MACD zero line, indicating the possibility of steep declines if selling continues. The Nasdaq is currently forming a pattern of lower highs, favoring sell-side strategies. However, with Friday's non-farm payroll data approaching, pre-market movement may remain range-bound. Oil Oil closed higher, finding support at the 5-day moving average. Although it hasn’t pulled back to the 3-week moving average on the weekly chart, continued gains this week could result in a candlestick pattern that reflects support at this level. Strong buying momentum persists on the daily chart, making buy-side strategies advantageous. Selling opportunities may arise if oil challenges the previous high at $76. The steep divergence between current prices and daily moving averages suggests the need for some price or time correction to bring the moving averages closer. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal emerged but was followed by a short-term rebound. Given the divergence and angles of the MACD and Signal lines, an immediate breakout to the upside seems unlikely. If prices rise but the MACD fails to form a golden cross, a pullback is likely. Avoid chasing the rally; instead, focus on buying dips at key levels and selling at highs. Gold Gold closed higher with an upper wick, showing significant volatility following economic data releases. On the daily chart, gold continues to consolidate within a range. As Friday’s non-farm payroll data approaches, further consolidation is likely, so avoid chasing buying at highs or selling at lows. The MACD and Signal lines on the daily chart show minimal divergence, indicating a range-bound movement. On the 240-minute chart, another buy signal has appeared, but given the upcoming data releases, it’s more practical to approach this as part of a range-bound strategy rather than expecting a breakout. Exercise caution and focus on range-trading until clearer trends emerge. ■Pre-Market Trading Strategies Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21,280 / 21,230 / 21,160 / 21,060 / 20,990 -Sell Levels: 21,450 / 21,505 / 21,555 / 21,600 / 21,680 Oil - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 74.20 / 73.80 / 73.10 / 72.70 -Sell Levels: 74.90 / 75.40 / 76.40 / 77.20 Gold - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 2,659 / 2,654 / 2,649 / 2,644 / 2,635 -Sell Levels: 2,669 / 2,676 / 2,681 These strategies are applicable only during pre-market hours, with profit-taking and stop-loss levels set as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 15–20 ticks. Trade successfully while keeping an eye on market indicators!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
WTI reaches key resistance zoneCrude oil prices have been stealthily rising over the past couple of weeks, but now is the real test as prices have reached some important resistance levels. As per the chart, WTI faces a band of resistance from its bearish trend line, 200-day moving average, and prior support and resistance, all converging around the psychologically important $75.00 level. Specifically, the resistance range comes in between $74.55 to $77.50. Yesterday's bearish price candle was the first sign of a potential reversal, although we haven't yet seen any downside follow-through. Support comes in around $71.50, the base of the recent breakout. Below that, $70.00 is the next downside target, followed by the recent lows. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
TVC:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?! (UPDATE):It's been a few months since I've done an update on my Crude Oil analysis, as Oil prices have been stagnant & consolidating. But in the past week & a half we've seen a huge push to the upside, with Oil now sitting at a 3 month high! Currently up 700 PIPS (10.40%) in profit from our support zone. Long term I still remain bullish from a technical standpoint. Also, we already know from a fundamental standpoint, the puppet Donald Trump will be used to worsen geopolitical situations globally, weather that's in the Middle East or with China & Russia.
TVC:USOILLong
by BA_Investments
Crude Opportunity Part 2In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used. In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow time line. So clearly, the recent breakout is projected to have something similar in terms of a bullish rally. This is in line with the weekly outlook. Together with technical indicators like the RoVD, as well as the MACD where there is a clear breakout support, Crude appears to have much upside potential. However, there is no rush as it just met the trendline resistance and is expected to pull back a bit to retest and breakout again for the longer term. Overall, this looks not like a spike out of fear, but one spurred by inflation. This is in the MUST WATCH list for sure and an accumulation plan should be in place. A projected path is drawn as a guide and the target for Crude is 100-105.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Pre-Market Analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and Gold Futures The Nasdaq closed higher with an upper wick on the daily chart. As mentioned previously, this week is expected to show buying pressure at the beginning, followed by selling pressure towards the latter half. After the 240-minute chart's buy signal, the daily chart's MACD is moving closer to the Signal line, indicating buying momentum. However, achieving a complete golden cross appears challenging due to the divergence and angle. The 21,900–22,000 range is considered a short-term high zone, where the market might either sharply drop after forming an upper wick or move sideways before failing the golden cross, leading to a downward shift in the MACD and a subsequent sell-off. Notably, Nvidia, which has been driving the current index, continues to show strength. Monitoring Nvidia's previous high as a resistance point will be crucial. While the 240-minute chart exhibits strong buying pressure, the steep angle of the recent surge suggests that managing risk and opting for selling opportunities near the highs—rather than buying on dips—would be more advantageous. Additionally, keep an eye on key economic indicators such as the ISM Services Index and JOLTS report, which are scheduled for release today. Crude oil closed lower with an upper wick. Given its recent rapid surge, crude oil's daily chart shows significant divergence from the 5-day moving average. It is advantageous to focus on selling at the highs in this scenario. If the price pulls back to the 240-day moving average, observing whether it finds support will be critical. This week, oil could pull back to the 3-week moving average on the weekly chart and then rebound. Therefore, caution is advised against chasing the rally, and selling near previous highs would be prudent. However, buying on dips near the 3-week moving average could present an opportunity. On the longer-term 240-minute chart, a bearish candlestick at the high has triggered a sell signal. It would be wise to anticipate potential sharp declines and prioritize selling during rebounds. For buying opportunities, it is recommended to act cautiously and at significantly lower levels. Gold closed lower with a lower wick. Ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data, gold is likely to remain range-bound in a consolidation phase. On the weekly chart, gold faces resistance from moving averages, and this week’s key data releases may determine its trend. On the daily chart, while a buy signal was generated, gold failed to make a significant surge, leading to the MACD and Signal line moving sideways. With market flows becoming more uncertain, a range-bound strategy is advisable. On the 240-minute chart, gold could form a triangular consolidation pattern in the short term. Until Friday, trading within a range would be the most effective approach. The weather has turned colder with a cold wave sweeping in, and flu season is here. Please take care of your health, and I wish you successful trading today! ■Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21,660 / 21,565 / 21,495 / 21,450 -Sell Levels: 21,885 / 21,940 / 22,005 / 22,045 / 22,110 ■Oil - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 72.80 / 71.90 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.20 / 74.85 ■Gold - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 2,641 / 2,635 / 2,625 -Sell Levels: 2,652 / 2,658 / 2,666 / 2,672
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today and Weekly Outlook for Nasdaq, Crude Oil, and Gold FuturesNasdaq Analysis Yesterday, Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. It formed a double bottom near the 21,000 level and rebounded, entering a consolidation range near the moving averages. The MACD remains above the zero line, and the Signal line is also above the zero line, suggesting the potential for another upward attempt this week. However, due to the significant gap between the MACD and Signal lines, there is a high possibility of a failed buy attempt followed by a downward move. If the MACD shifts downward, a break below the 60-day moving average could occur. On the weekly chart, no sell signal has emerged yet, but the MACD and Signal lines are closely aligned. This week may determine whether the weekly chart enters a third wave of buying or declines into a death cross. The 240-minute chart currently shows a buy signal, indicating that the market may focus on buying at the start of the week, with a potential shift to selling later in the week as the MACD leans bearish and a third wave of selling emerges on the 240-minute chart. It is advisable to consider support and resistance levels based on daily moving averages and respond to key levels in the longer-term range. Crude Oil Analysis Yesterday, crude oil continued its strong upward trend and closed higher. The price has posted five consecutive bullish candles, with the short-term peak near $74 serving as a resistance zone. A pullback to the 5-day moving average should not be ruled out. On the weekly chart, crude oil formed a large bullish candle, breaking through major resistance levels like the 60-week and 120-week moving averages in one move. Buying near the 72.80 level, which corresponds to the 3-week moving average, is favorable during pullbacks, and maintaining support at the midpoint of the weekly bullish candle will be crucial. The 240-minute chart also reflects strong buying momentum. Above $74, a short-term sell with stop-loss protection is advisable, while aggressive buying during pullbacks below the 5-day moving average on the daily chart is favorable. This is a typical pattern transitioning from bearish alignment to bullish alignment, so caution is advised when considering selling. Gold Analysis Gold closed lower yesterday with a bearish candle. Combining Thursday and Friday’s candlesticks, a doji pattern emerges. If gold fails to break above the 60-day moving average on the daily chart and tilts downward, the key support level at 2600 will be critical. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remains intact, with strong resistance around the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. If gold cannot strongly break through this resistance, a pullback should be anticipated. Although the daily chart confirms a buy signal, the movement lacks significant momentum, leaving room for a swift erasure of the buy signal and a shift to selling this week. On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance at key support/resistance levels. While the pattern can be viewed as a range-bound box, a sell signal on the 240-minute chart could lead to strong selling momentum following a false breakout. Adopting a range-bound strategy with a focus on selling is advantageous. This Week's Outlook This week, major events such as CES 2025, the release of FOMC minutes, and the Nonfarm Payroll report are on the agenda. Additionally, next week’s CPI is within view. Be cautious around key events and data release times to manage risks effectively. Wishing you a successful trading week!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
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