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Crudeoil!

OIL (WTI) - 4H Three PushThe WTI Oil 4H chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern, often referred to as the "three pushes" or "three drives" pattern. This pattern is characterized by three distinct attempts by the market to push lower, each attempt being met with increasing buying interest. The current setup shows that after three downward pushes, the price has started to rebound, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. The price action has recently broken above the upper boundary of the descending wedge, which suggests a weakening bearish trend and the possibility of a new bullish phase. The target for this bullish movement could be around the $84 level, where previous resistance lies. Traders should watch for continued higher highs and higher lows to confirm the upward trajectory, and consider long positions as the price action aligns with this bullish reversal signal.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Sober_Trading
Crude Oil: Long Position Amidst Support and SeasonalityWe are considering a long position on crude oil, given that the price has reached a significant support area. This support level is reinforced by a divergence observed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a potential reversal in the current trend. Additionally, seasonality data supports the likelihood of a bullish movement during this period. The convergence of these technical indicators and historical trends strengthens our conviction for a long setup. The RSI divergence indicates that the recent downward momentum may be waning, while the support area provides a strong foundation for a potential price rebound. Furthermore, seasonality data, which highlights recurring patterns in price behavior during specific times of the year, suggests that crude oil prices are poised for an upward movement. In light of these factors, we are looking to establish a long position on crude oil, capitalizing on the technical setup and historical data that align to suggest a favorable entry point for a bullish trade.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by FOREXN1
1
Event-Driven Strategy using WTI Weekly OptionsNYMEX: WTI Futures ( NYMEX:CL1! ) and WTI Weekly Options ( GETTEX:LO5 ) OPEC+, the coalition of the world’s leading oil producers, will convene on June 2nd to decide production policy for the second half of the year. The powerful oil cartel consists of 13 OPEC members and 9 nonmember participants, and together produces about 59% of global oil production. This amounted to 48 million barrels per day (mn b/d) in 2022, estimated by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Many analysts expect OPEC+ to continue the voluntary cut of 2.2 mn b/d, due to expire at the end of June. This voluntary cut, introduced in November 2023, adds to 3.6 mn b/d of production cut that have reduced the members’ crude output by about 5.8 mn b/d, or about 5% of global supply, since November 2022. I consider the move an attempt to shore up prices against higher US oil production and an uncertain economic outlook in China. OPEC+ meeting is a significant event in the global crude oil market. We could liken its importance to that of the Federal Reserve meetings for equities and bonds. The group’s decision could tilt the balance of supply and demand one way or the other. Here are three possible outcomes: • No change: To renew existing cuts of 2.2 mn b/d through the end of the year. • Additional cuts. This would reduce global crude oil supply. • Ease of cuts. This would release more oil to the global market. The oil market may stay calm if the OPEC+ decision conforms to investor expectations of no change. A surprise announcement of additional cuts would likely send oil prices skyrocketing. But any pullback from current cuts could sink oil prices down. This provides a good setting for event-driven trading strategies. Monitoring Crude Oil Market Sentiment Real Time For a trading strategy to work, the trader needs to understand the market sentiment ahead of the actual event. While analysts give out opinions, it is the investors who put money in their mouth. Therefore, for unbiased decision making, we should look into trading data. The CME Group OPEC Watch Tool is a great analytical tool for crude oil traders. It uses NYMEX WTI crude oil option prices to calculate the probabilities of certain outcomes from the nearest weekly and monthly options that expire around the OPEC meeting. In essence, it uses actual trading data, and go the extra mile to transform it into useful insights. This valuable tool is free and can be accessed via CME Group website. The title chart includes a snapshot of CME Group OPEC Watch Tool. As of May 26th: • OPEC Watch Tool expects a 79.1% probability of no change; • There is a 18.8% probability of ease of cuts: • Additional cuts remain a remote probability, at 2.2%. I would like to point out that the market often exhibits overly pessimistic or overly optimistic sentiment. OPEC Watch Tool shows the collective wisdom of crude oil options traders. However, the trades are not scientific forecast. Market sentiment could change very rapidly. With this in mind, we need to closely monitor it with real-time trading data. If, through independent analysis, a trader establishes an opinion very different to what the market suggested, he or she may express it with a trade position and wait for the market to correct its faulty assumptions. Trading with NYMEX WTI Weekly Options We could consolidate the three possible OPEC+ decisions into two: • Within Expectation. No changes. • Exceeding Expectation. More cuts or less cuts. Investors expect OPEC+ to maintain its current cuts. If that turns out to be the case, oil prices may not move much following the announcement. If a trader hosts this view, how could he or she turn it into a trade strategy? The trader could consider selling short-dated out-of-the-money (OTM) WTI crude oil options. The July WTI futures contract ($CLN4) settled at $77.80 a barrel last Friday. Selling OTC strikes on WTI weekly options would enable the trader to collect an upfront premium. The first Friday after the OPEC+ announcement is June 7th. The weekly options ($LO1M4) will last only 12 days before its expiration. How do we select options strikes to sell? There are really no rules of thumbs. For illustration purposes, let us pick an OTC call strike approximately $5 above current market price, and a put strike about $5 below. • Last Friday, the 82.75 call strike settled at 17 cents. Each WTI weekly option contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels. Therefore, the trader would collect $170 premium for selling 1 call. • The $72.75 put strike settled at 29 cents. The trader would get $290 for selling 1 put. • If the trader sells 1 call and 1 put, he or she could collect $460 for just 12 days. Words of warning for options sellers: • CME Group requires options sellers to deposit $6,001 margin for each July contract as the time of writing. Therefore, this strategy requires an investment of $12,002 for both call and put. • If OPEC+ acts as expected and the oil market stays calm, the trader would get the margin deposit back when the options expire worthless. • However, if oil prices move up above the call strike, the trader could incur a loss, potentially wiping out all the margin deposit, and probably more. • If oil prices drop below the put strike, the trader would also experience a loss. If the trader holds an opposite view, he or she could buy the OTC call or put options, depending on which direction the trader is leaning towards. For a small upfront premium, the trader could establish a position on crude oil, and potentially collect a big payout if OPEC+ changes heart. For those who are uncertain of which way OPEC+ would go, but are convinced that they would change courses, traders could buy both OTC calls and OTC puts at the same time. This is an example of options strangle strategy. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
CRUDE OIL (CLN2024, USOIL, WTI)... BEARISH!Bias is Bullish. Daily TF shows 2 weeks of consolidation supported by a Daily +FVG. Friday finally saw a "BO" as price traded through the swing high with a close above it. Note that price is now inside the a Daily -FVG. Potential for a bearish reaction? Yes. However, I believe it will be short term if anything. The 4H gives more detail. One can see bullish structure in place that will support a move higher, potentially to to test 80.21. Thank you for viewing! Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! May profits be upon you.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by RT_Money
4
Crude Prices Decline as Weekly EIA Inventories Unexpectedly RiseEquity Markets Navigate Macro Scenarios Amid Interest Rate and Stagflation Concerns Equity markets navigate various macroeconomic scenarios as investors weigh the risks of prolonged high interest rates and potential stagflation. HSBC suggests that greater clarity from the Federal Reserve, even if leaning more hawkish, could ease market pressures. Strategists believe this could lead to global equity gains in both a balanced "goldilocks" scenario and a mild stagflation scenario. "The exact timing of Fed rate cuts should not significantly impact equities, especially if any delay is due to economic strength," they noted in a statement. The upside for global equities both in a goldilocks and a mini stagflation scenario Technically side: The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea, and still trading at the bearish zone to reach 75.35. so the bearish trend suggestion will continue as long as trades under 78.78 toward 76.60 and 75.35 the price will move between 80.73 and 75.35 for this week Pivot line: 78.78 Support lines: 76.60, 75.35, 69.78 Resistance lines: 80.73, 82.24, 83.75
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
OIL 20/5/2024 AnalysisDue to serious geopolitical scenario happening in the middle east usoil has a potential tendency to go long. the Israel strike over Rafa and death of iranian president has created a serious tension in the middle east zone which can be affecting the price of black gold the oil. Bullish targets: 79.60 79.80 80.10 bearish targets : 79.00 78.80 supports: 79.23 78.57 78.21 pivot 78.85 resistance 79:85 80.25 until and unless the pivot is not broken oil will continue buy. boost follow and share us for more such trade analysis.
TVC:USOILLong
by realmillionairefx
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower. My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows. Daily PDL Weekly SSL Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move. Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity. Lets see how this plays out !!!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
USOIL enjoys relief but has an uneasy path ahead of itWest Texas Intermediate crude oil trades near $79.80 per barrel, which happens to be slightly below the 20-day SMA and the lower bound of the ascending channel. A breakout above the moving average will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term, especially if the price closes above the 20-day SMA for multiple consecutive days; the same applies to a breakout above the channel’s lower bound. Once the 20-day SMA is broken, $80.44 and $82.25 are important resistance levels to watch out for. However, a rejection at the moving average and channel’s bound will be somewhat concerning, potentially foreshadowing further stagnation around the current price or return of weakness. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.02 The daily MACD of USOIL is shown above. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. However, it is important to emphasize that MACD is still within the bearish area below the midpoint. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Monthly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Crude Oil Weekly Analysis- 20th to 24th May 2024 Over view As per my previous weekly analysis, Crude oil had great ride from beginning of this year and paused from previous month. Fortunately this was necessary for having further movement. We can consider the previous month process was retracement thus by expecting further movement in upcoming weeks. Any small bounce from this level would be great bullish indications for good week ahead. Weekly TF Price has exactly reacted at 0.382 Fibonacci level which is good sign of bullish continuation. Good green candle formation after doji formation & crossed 50 EMA Day TF Trend: Upward range with 3 consecutive support(HL 01, HL 02, HL 03). Now HL04 has been created and rejected at same level by creating double bottom. Inside candle breakout has been found after creating Doji & Bullish hammer. Price has been rejected from crucial key level 0.5 Level rejected in Fibonacci Buy: Entry 01:6691 Entry 02: 6962 Final Target expected: 7235 Direct Gapup/Gapdown entry should be avoided Get confirmation from any of the leading indicators before entering trade Kindy comment below in case of any clarification required on this particular idea. Please follow for more ideas MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Swinging_Inside_the_BAR