Get started

Crudeoil!

Israel strikes Iranian consulate, what does WTI chart tells us?Hi, 1PERCENT here. Today I am sharing a chart that I drew a few years ago. Contrary to crypto where we have fast movements of 30% intraday, Bonds, commodities, inflation rates, etc. are "slow movers"... but only in peaceful times. So patience is required for investors who focus on the forest. You were correct, but 10 years early. Now is your time to shine. #PeterSchiff #MikeMaloney WTI crude oil price that bounced from the $68-74 support zone . This support zone held well even last year when mass media and the EIA (US government's puppy) kept screaming that we have an oversupply of oil & gas. Remember what happened back in 2022 when oil went to $128? Especially those in Europe & Asia? Pay attention & Be prepared for the changes occurring in our societies. Stay safe. 1PERCENT
TVC:USOILLong
by RVD_1PERCENT
US OIL (WTI) MARKET ANALYSE. (READ CAPTION)Technical Analysis: Incorporate key trading indicators such as the double line resistance breakout, pullback support, and demand zone analysis to assess price movements in the US Oil market. Identify channels and trendlines to spot potential breakout or breakdown points, confirming with volume and momentum indicators like relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Additionally, monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for its impact on oil prices, considering its inverse correlation. Stay vigilant for opportunities at support and demand zones, utilizing these levels for entry and exit points in your trading strategy. If you like this idea please support with boost comment and follow thanks for with us.
TVC:USOILLong
by Alexview009
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILShort
by ShahedZare
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (Update 3)An update from the last summary: Stating the obvious but the recurring pattern did not play out. This was a painful past couple of days but some realizations that I will walk through here for anyone who may be on a similar journey or realizations. “Buy high and sell low” or “buy support and sell resistance” are simple words to speak, to walk through in back testing, but, in the heat of the moment with live data and markets unfolding in ways you weren’t expecting make these phrases an near impossible accomplishment. As for the chart setup, I’ve with the following for the Renko WTI/CL chart: 25 tick block size and a 15-minute timeframe (more on this later) DEMA at 12 and 20 MA at 20 with a 9 period (or block in case of Renko) WMA Stoch of 5,3,3 and 25,3,3 DMI of 5,5 Bull Bear Power at 25 (this is new and seems to provide good insights) Wednesday and Thursday had me watching the Renko charts waiting for an opportunity to go short (remember, my trading style is to buy either Calls or Puts as near to the money as possible and at least 3 to 4 months out). From the patterns I saw on the Renko, I firmly believed that the market was ready to sell off and I wanted to be in. As an aside, I cap my losses at 10% of the price I pay for the option. In my losses this week, I realized that my strategies for every period of time that I’ve tried to trade had basically been a breakout trader. It wasn’t that I made a definitive statement of “Hey, my methodology is that of a breakout trader” but more like “Hey, I need to see confirmation of the price movement before I enter”. The problem is that the confirmation I was looking for was well after price had started moving and, as I looked at it, it was what could be classified as a breakout. And it was in my 3rd loss for the week, that I realized what I was doing wasn’t working. Sure, I could find points in time where it would have seemed to work but not this week. As closed out my 3rd loss, I read back through some items I had highlighted in the “Pivot Boss” book referenced earlier and in it found the pages were I had marked up the callout that you have to buy at support and sell into resistance if your going to succeed. It seem intuitive but in reality, it goes completely against my nature while trying to find an entry point with live data flying by. By now, if you’ve read this far, you may have picked out some items that resonate with you or you may be finding this as a serious source of entertainment :D For the discussion that continues, you’ll need to reference the previous article I wrote to see the specific charts before the price action on Thursday. The following link will give you view of how price played out. The red rectangle outline on the chart is where I was looking for price to repeat a similar pattern noted in the related article. How simple (and unrealistic) could this be. What played out was a price movement that I didn’t know how to handle and took me some time to figure out where to get in. As price continued to go up, I realized this was where I would usually just try to get in and then, I would get in at a intra-day high, have price pull back and 10-20% of my option value hit and I’d be out just to watch the market reverse. So, on this day, I resolved myself not to make a trade unless I could figure out this “buy support and sell resistance” thing. In my resolve, I agreed to some points: I will only buy at support and will sell into resistance: (the hardest concept known to man, not in understanding but execution) The key must be in the Camarilla Pivots so use them and the system that is outlined in the book. Or, as close as you can with how you want to trade. Renko chart setting will stay at 25 ticks for a block size and 15 minutes for a timeframe. What does this mean for Renko in TV? It means that price of a 25 tick increment must be held for 15 minutes before the block is committed or printed. Because volume profile and camarilla pivots are not a natural fit on the Renko charts, I’ll create a candle chart side-by-side to the Renko chart and then place all of these indicators on it. Additionally, all of the mark-ups I do for projecting the volume area on the chart and the opening range will be done on the candle chart The Renko chart will continue to have the indicators I track on it but they will be for confirmation and helping to form an opinion of the market and nothing to do with entry or exit. Remember, I want to buy support and sell resistance and not breakouts. I wanted to have multiple periods of levels on my candle chart so I included 3 sets of camarilla, a daily, weekly, and monthly set of levels. The next big decision I had to make was the timeframe for the candle chart itself. After much experimentation and debate with myself, I landed with the following: Start with an hourly chart. The first general notion of entry and if at support or resistance will come from the hourly chart. I will continue with my volume area and opening range markup but it will be for a weekly timeframe. Meaning that the volume profile indicator is set to weekly and I use the first 5 hours of the week to set the opening range. From these markups I’ll create an opinion of the coming week and a trading plan based on what I see. Then, I’ll let price movement between the camarilla pivots prove out my opinion or lead me to adjust it. Once I find a potential trigger, I will switch the 1hr candle chart to a 5 minute candle chart and look for candle setups to trigger the actual trade. What do I use for triggers and how to I decide where to look? The following chart is a bit of an eye chart but you get the idea. With the 3 camarilla pivots plus a year pivot, you can see the various levels. While it may seem like a confused mess, there is some method to the madness. The Camarilla pivots in TV allow you to color code the levels plus set the size or pixel width of the lines of the levels. For all periods, I set the pivot to black, R1/S1 and R2/S2 to purple and then based on the book’s recommendation, R3/S4 to red, R4/S3 to green, and R5/S5 to blue. For the daily, week, monthly, and yearly pivots, I set their pixel width to 1px, 2px, 3px, and 4px respectively. This is how I get a visual clue on what timeframe price is approaching (by the width) and the type of triggers or market behavior I should be looking for based on the color. I will use the weekly, monthly, and hourly pivots to look for price levels of support or resistance. It will be at these levels that I’ll look for price action to provide insight as to what the market wants to do with the level (there is a good discussion in the “Pivot Boss” book on identifying candle patterns that distills a lot of complexities of endless chapters of concepts into a few simple ones in one chapter). Once I see some type of candle pattern on the 1 hour chart that could indicate a trigger to enter, I change it to a 5 minute chart to find a pattern in the price movement of the next candle to make the entry. In theory, this should provide me with an entry at support; don’t wait for a confirmation via a breakout. So, why mess with the Renko charts then? Fair enough of a question; I believe that the Renko chart setup will filter noise out of the view and provide a cleaner view of support and resistance lines due to the nature of its makeup. If you follow along with any of this in your own charts, you will begin to see that the pivots begin to form identifiable lines of support and resistance in the Renko chart. And, back to the point that the Renko setup I have with the specific indicators and their settings seem to provide a good path toward confirmation of trends and positions. Another key issue I was struggling with was how to correlate the Renko chart with the candle chart. This is where I came up with the 5-minute chart which, after thinking about it, I realized that the 5-minute chart would reconcile nicely with the 15-minute Renko chart. If you look at how Renko charts are printed, they will print on the time frame that you set so, if a brick prints, it should do so on a :15-minute boundary. And, the 5-minute candle will correlate to it. The next chart shows the Renko with the 1hr candle side-by-side with the same rectangle. The rectangle on the 1hr is a reasonable estimate but squarely in the middle is an interesting candle formation that happens to be near the daily S5 and the weekly R1. I looked at this for awhile in real-time and thought, how do you really decide to make this trade? It seems like price has moved further from the trigger before you have the nerve to pull the trigger on the trade. Plus, if you look at the DEMA on the Renko at this time, it’s still set bearish with 20 above the 12 and the -DI was still swapped above the +DI. All things I’ve used in the past and now causing paralysis in pulling the trigger in a “buy at support” trade. The next is the same chart setup but I’ve switched to the 5 minute view and have adjusted the red rectangle in the candle chart a little. The candle chart shows the boundary of the lowest red brick, the one red brick to the left and the two green bricks to the right. In this price action, candle on the one hour chart (engulfing is corroborated by the extended wick of the green brick that is the first reversed color in the down move. However, with the DEMA swapped bearish, what would lead you to look to buy on this. There are valid cases where price continues down from the one green brick. This is where the importance of the camarilla pivots along with the 5 minute chart come in. With the engulfing candle on the 1-hour chart and the green brick on the Renko, what I should have done is use the 5-minute chart with the various pivots to find support and candle patterns to enter the market long. This would have been fulfilling the mantra of “Buy Support; Sell Resistance”. The following chart zooms in to both the Renko and the 5-minute candle in hopes to show details of how to get from potential triggers to confirmations and physical entries with tighter reins on the stops to guard more on the ‘Hope this will work’ strategy. By using the 15-minute Renko and the 5-minute chart, I can now see exactly what’s going on in the Renko bricks to get a better feel of what the market is doing. The blue double arrow on the Renko correlates with the 5-minute candle. With the first green brick being a trigger, then the key is to look at what is going on once that brick prints to see how price behaves around the Camarilla pivots. The green dashed line is the time that the first green brick printed (committed, good to go). So, what is important is to now watch the price to find a setup to enter. Or we see the market push through the support of the camarilla pivots that are in close proximity and begin the search for an entry short. The chart below is zoomed in even more on the candle chart with the daily Camarilla S4 which, from a daily context, is the last level of support before more sellers hop in and drive price lower. I’ve outlined this pivot in a green rectangle and here you can see price action and find some interesting setups. I’ve put some black arrows at some of the more interesting candles and those which are probably some type of reversal patters of 2 or 3 in nature. I’ll end this here but have more in my notes that I’ll include in a future update.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis: Trends, Tensions, and TurnaroundsThe WTI light crude oil benchmark is currently navigating a complex landscape, trading around $83.50 amidst a convergence of factors influencing its trajectory. At present, the market finds itself within a critical juncture, characterized by the interplay of supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and currency movements. Recent market movements have seen WTI prices facing downward pressure, largely attributed to the resurgence of the US Dollar (USD) and unexpected increases in US crude and gasoline inventories. The hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller have bolstered the Greenback, signaling a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments. Consequently, a stronger USD renders dollar-denominated oil more expensive for foreign investors, thereby curbing demand and exerting downward pressure on WTI prices. Moreover, the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report revealing a surprising build-up in US crude inventories further compounded the bearish sentiment surrounding WTI prices. This unexpected uptick in stockpiles added to the downward pressure on prices, reflecting a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the market. Despite these bearish indicators, the geopolitical landscape presents a contrasting narrative. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine have injected a degree of uncertainty into global oil markets. The intensified attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure by Ukraine, coupled with ongoing geopolitical unrest, have the potential to disrupt global supply chains and mitigate the downward pressure on WTI prices. Amidst this backdrop, market analysts are closely monitoring key technical indicators for potential market reversals. The presence of an H4 supply area, coupled with the formation of a possible Double Top pattern and overbought conditions signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests the possibility of a reversal in WTI prices. However, the outcome remains uncertain, contingent upon the interplay of market forces and geopolitical developments in the coming days. In conclusion, the WTI crude oil market is navigating a complex web of factors, encompassing supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations. While bearish indicators weigh on prices, geopolitical uncertainties and technical signals hint at the potential for a market reversal. As market participants continue to monitor developments, the future trajectory of WTI prices remains subject to ongoing market dynamics and geopolitical events.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
Crude Oil Market Insights: Exploring Potential ReversalUS crude oil prices have experienced continued selling pressure for the third consecutive day, with the market reaching the $83 mark. This price level is accompanied by notable areas of resistance, suggesting the potential for a reversal in the near term. Recent events have contributed to the uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices. Notably, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have raised concerns about a potential decrease in fuel production by Russia. This incident compounds the impact of OPEC+ members' decision to extend production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the second quarter. Adding to the mix, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024, predicting an upward trend. This, coupled with expectations of a stronger US economy and a potential recovery in China, suggests a tightening of oil supplies on the horizon. In light of these developments, traders are advised to exercise caution. While selling pressure persists, the convergence of factors such as geopolitical tensions, production cuts, and demand forecasts could act as a catalyst for a reversal in crude oil prices. Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor key resistance levels and market dynamics for signs of a potential bearish setup. With multiple variables at play, prudent risk management and a keen eye on market developments will be crucial for navigating the volatile crude oil market effectively.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by FOREXN1
1
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (update 1)This will serve as an update to the previous discussion specifically to some of the chart settings and the approach. Going into the open on 25-March-2024, I was looking for price to move lower to test the monthly and yearly Camarilla R3. My reasoning was that neither seemed to have been tested yet and that these two together would provide a good level for support. My long term view on crude oil is bullish and I believed this type of action would provide a good entry point. However, this plan did not come through so I stood aside to let the market playout to determine another entry strategy. While watching the market in the charts I had published earlier, I decided to make some adjustments to see if I would have detected the market’s plan sooner providing an entry point. The following are the changes that I’ve made: Changed the timeframe of the Renko chart from 15 minutes to 1 minute. Without paying for a higher subscription in TV, 1 minute is as low of a timeframe as you can go with Renko. This alone changed the dynamics of the chart with a different view on the DMI and Stoch. Changed the slower Stoch from 25,3,3 to 50,3,3 (which is a setting I’ve experimented with in the past. The DMI remained the same as did the levels of importance for the ADX of 35 and 20. Added the BPP (Bull Bear Power) indicator and set it to an interval of 50. I’ve not used this indicator before but was experimenting with some items yesterday and found this. I set the line to a step line and you can see the results here. Added a 2-hour candle chart next to the Renko and will use it in conjunction with the Renko chart to make entry/exit decisions. Removed the manual Linear Regression from the Renko chart and have added them to the 2hr chart. This is a more natural fit and have maintained the default settings. I have added two LR indicators with one at 1 STD and one at 2 STD. Removed the manual drawings of the Camarilla pivots and have added them as indicators to the 2hr chart. Removed the volume profile from the Renko chart and have added it to the 2hr chart with a week timeframe. All markup for volume area, opening range, etc. will be put on the 2hr chart and will be for a weekly view. The Renko chart will remain to work for timings of entry and exits. Considering the 1-minute chart, you can see that there was a buy signal across several of the setups. As noted earlier, the consolidation on the 1 minute/25 tick Renko chart provided a signal that a breakout was coming. The slower Stoch set to 50,3,3 provided some insight into the direction with the break of the %k up over the %d and lastly, the new BBP gave an indication that the down move was a correction and that higher prices could be coming. A long wick and breakout of consolidation would have been a trigger to enter a trade of buying a Call option (see green arrow on Renko). Looking at the 2hr candle chart with the 2 linear regressions (1 and 2 STD respectively), then you can see where the support was formed then then where resistance was hit. The monthly and the weekly R4 provided resistance and now support is at the median of the current LR. Because the break of the weekly R3 was with a force with no test, my plan now is to find an entry long (an August Call) along this line which is also the same proximity of the weekly Pivot and the top of the week’s opening range (where the opening range for the week is defined as the first 5 2hr candles of the week. With a red brick in place on the 1 minute/25 tick chart, a green brick now would be a buying opportunity. I’ve added a consolidation channel across levels of what could be support for any pullback and could see another 25-tick brick in place before the green brick to the upside.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil PricesCrude oil prices have remained lacklustre and rangebound in 2024. Slow economic growth and abundant production have kept prices muted. OPEC's efforts of supply cuts haven’t helped. Neither have geopolitical tensions. Over the past two weeks, oil prices have once more started to pick up steam, supported by trend of shrinking inventory. Despite the price buoyancy, we expect prices to remain rangebound with supply and demand in balance. Yet even during these periods, positioning tactically can allow traders to harness positive gains. This paper posits a calendar spread in CME Crude Oil futures which provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.3x while remaining directionally neutral. PERSISTENT GEOPOLITICAL RISKS FAIL TO INFLUENCE PRICES While price, the options skew and IV may not reflect it, geo-political risk for oil supply has not dissipated. Geopolitics remains tense with the conflict in Ukraine and the middle east showing no signs of ending anytime soon. Cease-fire negotiations are stuck in a stalemate. Houthi rebels continue to target ships passing through the Red Sea. Conflicts are dragging on. The risk of escalation remains high. Earlier this year, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries reportedly destroyed approximately 12% of Russia’s total oil processing capacity. According to analysts , continued disruptions and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure is likely to pressure Russian production and exports. Confluence of these risk factors suggests the potential for upside risk in oil prices. Yet, IV does not reflect this sentiment. CVOL index for CME Crude Oil options is at a four-year low and skew is close to zero suggesting demand for call options remains subdued. Source - CME CVOL It is difficult to establish a directional stance based on geopolitical risks given the fragile situation. REOPENING REFINERIES PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED CRUDE DEMAND Towards the end of January, a divergence in crude inventories & gasoline stockpiles started to emerge. US crude inventories saw large buildups while refined oil inventories had large drawdowns. This suggested that while demand for crude products was strong, seasonal refinery outages meant demand for crude oil was subdued. The refinery outages were exacerbated by the cold blast in January which led to unplanned shutdowns. The impact – excessive buildup of crude inventories which led to bearish prices. At the same time, inventories of refined crude products like gasoline showed that demand at the downstream has remained strong. Gasoline inventories have fallen sharply over the past month and stand near their 5-year lows. Data Source - EIA Over the past month, though, refineries have come back online much faster than anticipated. Refinery utilization rate has surged from 80% in early Feb to almost 88% as of 15/March. Data Source - EIA Increase in refinery utilization has provided much needed demand for crude oil. Crude oil inventories have shifted from their huge buildups to drawdowns over the past week. At the same time, gasoline inventories continue to decline at a rapid pace suggesting strong fuel demand. Data Source - EIA In EIA’s weekly petroleum status report for the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected). The reason for the surprise – higher exports and refinery activity. This suggests that the demand for crude oil in the near term is stronger than many expected after the huge buildups in Feb. OPEC+ SUPPLY CUT EXTENSION FAILS TO ENTHUSE MARKETS At the meeting on 3/March, OPEC announced the extension of their voluntary production cuts till June. Cuts remain at around 2 million bpd, unchanged from previous guidance set in November 2023. Despite the extension of cuts, crude prices remained muted. According to S&P Global , many participants were already expecting the extension. Source - OPEC Monthly Report Moreover, the recent non-compliance of production quotas by some members has become a major concern. In January, OPEC members exceeded their quota by 139k bpd. In February, members exceeded their quotas by 208k bpd. Source - OPEC Monthly Report Most of the non-compliance is coming from a select few nations - Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the UAE, and Gabon. Source - OPEC Monthly Report Over-production raises concerns over seriousness to production cut commitments and its long-term sustainability. It is likely that over-production and the eventual roll-back of supply cuts will lead to a higher supply of crude oil later in the year. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP In the near term, crude inventories are likely to see increasing drawdowns given the rapid ramp-up of refineries and persistently high fuel demand. Outages in Russia are also impacting near-term supply on a global scale. Yet the supply outlook later in the year is less promising. The compliance of OPEC+ supply cuts are fading. Seasonal trends show that crude inventories tend to rise during the summer. Data Source - EIA Investors can take advantage of these trends by executing a calendar spread consisting of a long position on near term CME WTI Crude Oil Futures and a short position on a later expiry. Though, the backwardation on crude oil has become steeper over the past month, it potentially has scope to steepen further. The following hypothetical trade comprising a long position on the near-dated contract expiring in April (MCLK2024) and a short position on the further dated contract expiring in May (MCLM2024) provides a compelling reward-to-risk ratio of 1.4x. A calendar spread using WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures is directionally neutral. It is also beneficial from a margin standpoint. CME offers margin offsets for calendar spreads due to its relative lower risk profile of the trade. The spread requires maintenance margin of just USD 40. • Entry: 1.0063 • Target: 1.0135 • Stop Loss: 1.0003 • Profit at Target: USD 57.8 • Loss at Stop: USD 48.6 • Reward to Risk: 1.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by mintdotfinance