Get started

Crudeoil!

Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher despite Trump’s tariff announcement. On the daily chart, the MACD buy signal remains intact, and the index posted a strong bullish candlestick, confirming an upward bias. However, given the lack of volume behind the move, the market remains within a range-bound structure rather than signaling a clear breakout. For meaningful upside continuation, a decisive breakout above 22,000 is required. Until then, the market is likely to remain in a 21,000–22,000 range, as failure to break either side would prevent the MACD from creating a strong divergence from the signal line, leading to further sideways consolidation. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, but the price is struggling to hold its gains. If the MACD fails to cross above the signal line and instead turns lower, a failed breakout scenario could trigger a sharp decline. Given the low-volume rally from yesterday, chasing longs at current levels is not ideal. Instead, it is safer to maintain a range-trading strategy, with buying near the lower bound and selling near the upper bound. Additionally, if the index fails to break above the range high, a bearish MACD divergence could develop, increasing the risk of a downside move. Traders should avoid aggressive breakout buying and instead focus on disciplined range-bound positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, reaching the 10-day moving average, as MACD attempted to reconnect with the signal line. The $70–71 support zone remains a strong demand area, making dip-buying strategies favorable. As mentioned yesterday, the key question is whether oil will form a double bottom at $70–71 before breaking higher, or if it will continue rallying without a retest. Given the wide gap between the MACD and signal line on the daily chart, a failure to complete a golden cross could lead to another pullback, making chasing longs above $74 risky. On the 240-minute chart, oil has confirmed a bullish divergence, triggering a strong upward move. For the first time in a while, strong buying pressure has returned, reinforcing the buy-on-dip strategy. However, traders should monitor price action carefully as resistance levels approach. Gold Gold closed at a new all-time high, rallying aggressively into overbought territory and even breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. Inflation concerns are intensifying globally, fueled by Trump’s escalating tariff rhetoric, which is driving a strong commodities rally in gold, copper, and other raw materials. Since gold has been in a continuous uptrend since confirming its buy signal on January 16, traders should be mindful that sharp pullbacks can occur at any time. Additionally, with key U.S. economic data releases this week—CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday—gold’s volatility is expected to remain elevated. Given the overbought conditions, the best strategy remains buying on dips, rather than chasing highs. On the daily chart, the MACD would need to form a bearish crossover for a more structured correction to take place. On the 240-minute chart, gold has been in a stair-step rally, with the 2940–2950 zone emerging as a key wave-based resistance level. However, overshooting this level is possible, making it critical to wait for confirmation before assuming a short position. For now, the buy signal remains intact on the 240-minute chart, reinforcing the buy-on-dip approach. However, given yesterday’s strong rally, some short-term consolidation or profit-taking is likely today. With Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release and Trump’s escalating tariff measures, global market volatility is increasing significantly. Risk management remains essential in this environment. Trade smart and stay disciplined! Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. For more detailed strategies, please contact us on Telegram. Thank you. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21770 / 21720 / 21670 / 21550 -Sell Levels: 21850 / 21905 / 21960 / 22020 / 22100 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.10 / 71.70 / 71.30 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 72.95 / 73.35 / 74.50 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2934 / 2928 / 2922 / 2917 -Sell Levels: 2950 / 2955 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
WTI crude bulls eye $74Crude oil prices fell over 11% from the January high before support was found at the 200-day SMA and 50% retracement level on Friday. Trump's latest tariffs saw commodities rise on inflationary concerns, and that allowed WTI futures to post a daily gain of 1.6% - its best day since the January high. The 1-hour chart shows an impulsive move with no immediate threat of a top forming, and it seems plausible that the market is now reaching for $74 as part of a counter trend move, near the monthly pivot point and weekly R2. However, as Monday's trading volume was the lowest of the year, it shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm. So unless we see volumes rising alongside prices, I am to assume the current bounce is simply a correction against the drop from the January high. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
2
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point. Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions. Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios: Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong. Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal. Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively. Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout. Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout. Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals. Summary The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
NYMEX:CL1!
by dPEngineering
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower as the market digested the Employment Trends Index (ETI) report. On the weekly chart, a sell signal is in play, yet the index remains within a range-bound structure. Until it reclaims the 5-week moving average, any upside move could still face rejection. On the daily chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. A critical moment is approaching: will the index break below the 20-day and 60-day moving average golden cross, or will it regain bullish momentum? If a daily sell signal emerges, downside targets extend toward 20,940, where the Bollinger Band lower boundary and 120-day moving average converge. Although a gap-down occurred today, as long as the daily buy signal holds, traders should approach this market with a range-bound mindset rather than assuming a strong breakdown. On the 240-minute chart, the index encountered resistance at the upper range boundary. A bearish engulfing candle triggered a sell signal, but since both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, this still suggests a range-bound market. Buying dips and selling rallies remain the most effective strategy. Market volatility is increasing following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on most countries. Additionally, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release could be a major catalyst—keep it in mind when positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off support on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows strong support at the 20-week moving average, making further downside moves challenging. The $70–71 zone remains an attractive buy area, and with the weekly buy signal still intact, traders should avoid aggressive short-selling. On the daily chart, oil has yet to reclaim the 5-day moving average, and the MACD remains below the zero line, while the Signal line is still above it, indicating a mixed market structure. Given the potential for a bullish MACD crossover, long positions remain more favorable. The ideal price action scenario would involve a push to the 10-day moving average, a pullback to retest the $70–71 range, and then a double-bottom formation, leading to a strong upside breakout. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has re-emerged, suggesting a short-term bottom formation. Additionally, MACD bullish divergence is forming, reinforcing the bullish case. Selling into weakness should be avoided, while buying dips remains the preferred strategy. Gold Gold closed higher but formed a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure at the highs. On the weekly chart, gold is trading above the Bollinger Band upper boundary, placing it in overbought territory. At the start of the week, traders should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on buying pullbacks at key support levels. If gold continues to extend gains, shorting near the highs could be an option. However, volatility is expected to increase due to key data releases: Wednesday: U.S. CPI Thursday: U.S. PPI On the daily chart, the long wick suggests that gold may enter a consolidation phase around 2,900. If the 5-day moving average is lost, a 10-day moving average pullback could set up a range-bound structure. The MACD is in the process of narrowing toward the signal line, indicating that a corrective phase may occur this week. Buying pullbacks remains the preferred approach. On the 240-minute chart, gold has broken above previous highs, but the MACD is declining, signaling bearish divergence. Now that a sell signal has emerged, the MACD is shifting lower. In the short term, selling rallies remains more favorable, while long positions should only be considered near strong demand zones. Given the CPI release on Wednesday, gold may remain range-bound until then. Stay cautious, and trade within the range. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21550 / 21470 / 21420 / 21340 / 21220 -Sell Levels: 21680 / 21715 / 21800 / 21900 Crude Oil - Range-Bound Market -Buy Levels: 70.70 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.20 -Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.50 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2885 / 2878 / 2873 / 2862 / 2856 -Sell Levels: 2906 / 2917 / 2926 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1! The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components: Ichimoku Indicator Components: 1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average) • Short-term trend indicator. • A sharp slope suggests strong momentum. 2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average) • Medium-term trend indicator. • Acts as a support/resistance level. 3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead) • Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud). • A rising Span A suggests an uptrend. 4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead) • The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud). • When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red). 5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind) • Confirms trend direction. • If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum. Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku 1. Kumo Breakout Strategy • Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud). • Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo. 2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy • Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen. • Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen. 3. Chikou Span Confirmation • Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action. • Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action. 4. Kumo Twist • When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal. • When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal. 5. Trend Confirmation • Price above the cloud = bullish trend. • Price inside the cloud = consolidation. • Price below the cloud = bearish trend. Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy ✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance). ✅ Works well in trending markets. ✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals. Limitations ❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets. ❌ Can be complex for beginners. ❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD). Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by makerup
Weekly Market Forecast: CRUDE OIL Can Go Lower!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th. OIL is still trending to the downside, and sells are still valid. Until we see a bullish market break of market structure, sells all day. CPI Data news on Wednesday, so be careful trading into news day. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RT_Money
Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Pattern, Triangle Formation, and Key Back in January, despite strong rise, crude oil has seen limited upside and fully reversed the path. This is partly due to the Trump administration’s goal of bringing crude oil prices lower, with plans to refill the US strategic reserves. In fact data from the Energy Information Administration, showing that production has been gradually increasing since summer of 2023, around the time energy prices hit a swing high near $95. Since then, crude oil has consistently formed lower swing highs. So, if the Trump administration will really boost the oil production, it will likely put more downward pressure on energy prices and help ease inflation; the CPI y/y data, which is highly correlated with crude oil prices, could decline as well as shown on the weekly chart (but this will change if / when economy “booms”). From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking an ongoing A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern, but wave E could still push prices a bit higher, for a rally in the next few weeks, because the pattern appears incomplete. But, once this triangle concludes, I expect a break to the downside. This would likely coincide with lower inflation expectations as mentioned; thus lower US yields, and a weaker US dollar. Overall, my assumption is that crude oil will eventually break below $64 per barrel in 2025! GH
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ew-forecast
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed slightly higher with low volatility. As mentioned yesterday, the daily chart shows that the index is holding support at the 3-day moving average, while the MACD remains in an upward buy trend. However, resistance is evident along the upper trendline connecting previous highs. Today, a pullback toward the 5-day moving average should be considered, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key catalyst in determining whether the uptrend continues. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, suggesting a consolidation phase that could gradually lift moving averages before another bullish wave emerges. Overall, a buy-on-dip approach remains favorable, particularly if a pre-market pullback toward the 5-day MA occurs. However, given the potential for increased volatility from today's data release, risk management is crucial. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the 3-day moving average. However, downside support remains strong, making further declines difficult, which favors buy-side positioning. Since oil has now tested the 3-day MA, today’s strategy should focus on selling near the 5-day MA if a rally occurs. Both long and short positions should factor in weekly closing dynamics, as weekend geopolitical risks may lead to gap openings on Monday. On the 240-minute chart, oil remains in a downward trend, but signs of base formation are emerging. The MACD is nearing a potential golden cross, so traders should watch closely for a momentum shift. Additionally, geopolitical risks are increasing, with Trump tightening sanctions on Iran, adding to oil market volatility. Given these conditions, buying dips remains the preferred approach, but risk management is essential. Gold Gold closed lower, facing a sharp pullback after reaching the psychological level of 2900. The deep retracement suggests profit-taking at key resistance levels. Despite this correction, the daily chart still maintains a buy trend, and as long as gold holds above the 10-day moving average on a closing basis, the overall bullish bias remains intact. However, given that the MACD is completing its third bullish wave, a consolidation phase is likely as the MACD and Signal line begin to narrow. For now, buyers should focus on entering at lower levels to optimize risk-reward. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has emerged, leading to the current pullback. However, the MACD and Signal line are significantly below the zero line, meaning that despite the downtrend, buying interest could emerge on any further dips. This structure reduces the appeal of chasing short positions. Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is a major risk event, known for triggering extreme volatility in gold. As one of the most critical economic indicators for gold traders, managing exposure ahead of the release is crucial. Expect range-bound price action before the report, with a potential breakout afterward. Stay disciplined and manage risk carefully, as today’s NFP release will drive market volatility. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀 ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21820 / 21750 / 21710 / 21625 / 21510 -Sell Levels: 21870 / 21930 / 22010 / 22070 / 22135 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 70.20 / 69.80 / 69.20 / 68.30 -Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.20 / 72.70 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2876 / 2871 / 2862 / 2855 -Sell Levels: 2885 / 2892 / 2896 / 2902 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The Nasdaq broke out of its consolidation range and closed higher. On the daily chart, the index had been moving within a box range, with MACD and the Signal line flattening. However, following the breakout, the MACD has resumed its upward trajectory, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. With a strong breakout candle in play, the market is likely to maintain a short-term buying trend, centered around the 3-day moving average. While tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report presents potential volatility risks, the overall daily uptrend remains intact. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have crossed above the zero line, entering bullish territory. While further upside is possible, imbalanced order flow suggests we may see mixed price action, with alternating bullish and bearish candles. Given the current setup, buying on pullbacks remains the most favorable approach for today. CRUDE OIL Oil declined following the crude inventory report. On the daily chart, the price failed to reclaim the 10-day moving average, and the MACD-Signal line spread remains wide, indicating a lack of immediate convergence. A strong bearish breakout candle has formed, making short positions near the 3-day moving average a preferable strategy for today. However, the $70 level has established itself as a key support zone, meaning that buying opportunities may emerge in this area. Price action suggests range-bound movement, and for additional downside to materialize, the daily Signal line needs to drop below the zero line. As it remains above zero, a short-term MACD-Signal convergence attempt is likely in the near term, though a direct breakout seems unlikely due to the current wide spread. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has reappeared, driving continued downside pressure. However, if prices avoid a sharp decline, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts at this stage risky. Additionally, mixed catalysts, including Iran sanctions and increased U.S. oil drilling activity, are creating conflicting momentum, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings. Stop-loss management is crucial in this environment. GOLD Gold closed higher but formed an upper wick, signaling profit-taking at recent highs. On the daily chart, gold broke above $2,900, demonstrating a strong, one-way buying trend. However, given the sharp rally, this is a high-risk zone for chasing longs, as profit-taking pressure is likely to increase. Since gold has been moving in a stair-step pattern, the best approach is to buy on pullbacks at well-defined support and resistance levels. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is in its third-wave buy phase, maintaining the bullish momentum. Once this third wave completes and the MACD crosses below the Signal line (a death cross), gold may enter a consolidation phase or a corrective move, leading to sideways price action. Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is expected to significantly impact gold, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction. The optimal approach remains buying on dips, but near $2,900, short positions for range-bound trading should also be considered. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21710 / 21675 / 21620 / 21570 / 21510 -Sell Levels: 21895 / 21935 / 21970 / 22010 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 70.90 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.30 -Sell Levels: 71.65 / 72.10 / 72.60 / 73.20 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2881 / 2875 / 2870 / 2864 / 2859 -Sell Levels: 2896 / 2902 / 2909 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The Nasdaq initially declined in pre-market trading due to escalating tariff tensions between China and the U.S. but ultimately closed higher. A sell signal appeared on the daily chart but was reversed into a buy signal with yesterday’s bullish candle. This suggests that the market is still moving within a large box range, with moving averages converging. This consolidation phase indicates that a trend expansion phase—marked by a strong bullish or bearish breakout—may emerge soon. Until then, it is best to trade within the range. On the 240-minute chart, the market has been making stepwise upward movements, with the MACD forming a golden cross over the Signal line. Despite a strong price surge due to divergence, the index has entered a resistance-heavy zone, and liquidity is currently tight, which could lead to frequent sharp fluctuations. For now, the best strategy is selling near the upper boundary of the range and buying near the lower boundary. Given the ongoing trade tensions under Trump's tariff policies, risk management is crucial—placing stop-loss orders is highly recommended to protect against increased volatility. OIL Oil gapped down but found strong support around the $70 level, closing with a bullish candle. News of the U.S. tightening sanctions on Iran initially sent prices down by 3%, but a sharp rebound followed. While the daily chart still shows a sell signal, the $70 price area has historically provided strong support, as previously emphasized. Thus, the overall strategy should be buying on pullbacks rather than chasing sell positions. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD continues to create bullish divergence, forming a buy signal. This increases the likelihood of further upside movement. However, since the MACD and Signal lines are still below the zero line, further price increases are needed to widen the gap between these indicators and confirm bullish momentum. Overall, buying on pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility spikes due to today’s Crude Oil Inventories report. GOLD Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day moving average. On the daily chart, as long as the 10-day moving average holds, gold should be viewed from a bullish perspective. The MACD on the daily chart is trending sharply upward, so until a MACD-Signal line death cross occurs, buying on pullbacks remains the best strategy. Similarly, on the 240-minute chart, the MACD has repeatedly formed golden crosses, reinforcing a strong one-way bullish trend. From a flow of funds perspective, buying pressure remains strong, so buying dips continues to be the most favorable approach. However, traders should be aware of potential high volatility due to the upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report today and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. Given gold's recent sharp rally, a major inflection point could emerge, using economic data as a catalyst. The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and rapid price movements, increasing the likelihood of sudden price swings leading to stop-outs. However, if stop-losses are properly managed, losses can be quickly recovered. In a highly volatile market, profit opportunities increase, so maintaining strict stop-loss discipline while seeking the next trade opportunity is key to successful trading. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀 ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21500 / 21425 / 21340 / 21250 -Sell Levels: 21665 / 21735 / 21830 / 21930 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.20 / 71.60 / 70.90 -Sell Levels: 73.20 / 73.80 / 74.50 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2864 / 2859 / 2850 / 2845 -Sell Levels: 2876 / 2881 / 2889 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The Nasdaq closed lower, forming a lower wick at the bottom. The market initially dropped in pre-market trading due to Trump’s tariff imposition issue but recovered to close the gap after the one-month grace period for Mexico was announced. At yesterday’s closing price, the daily MACD triggered a sell signal. Although there was a gap-up today, further declines are likely as the resistance level holds. However, the MACD and Signal lines are still above the zero line on the daily chart, and it will take time for the 3-day and 5-day moving averages to pull down, suggesting that the index may form a wide-ranging box pattern before the trend leans towards further declines. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal appeared, and after a rebound, the MACD and Signal lines are reconnecting. Since a golden cross has not yet formed, a sell strategy on rebounds would be favorable. If the MACD fails to break above the Signal line and declines, a third wave of selling could follow. From a broader perspective, the 5-day moving average on the monthly chart coincides with the lower boundary of the daily box pattern. Until this level is strongly broken downward, short-term buy opportunities remain valid near the lower boundary of the range. OIL Oil gapped up but closed lower. The price failed to break above $75, leaving an upper wick. The one-month tariff grace period for Canada resulted in a gap-down movement. The key question is whether oil will attempt another rebound, using the 240-day moving average as support. It is crucial to see if a bullish candlestick forms while maintaining support above the 240-day moving average. On the weekly chart, oil is trapped within a box range, and as the week progresses, it will be important to assess whether conditions develop for a breakout next week. On the 240-minute chart, a rebound has occurred up to the 60-day moving average, following the characteristics of the 240-day moving average. Since the MACD and Signal lines remain below zero, selling pressure may persist. However, this is a high-probability divergence zone. If the third wave of selling fails and prices rebound, a sharp surge is possible, so traders should be cautious with aggressive short positions. The overall approach should be to trade within the range, favoring buy positions on pullbacks. GOLD Gold dropped to the 10-day moving average but found support and closed higher. On the monthly chart, a pullback to the 3-day moving average around 2,770 is possible, and a correction to the low 2,800s has already occurred. Gold's volatility is extreme due to tariff issues, so traders must carefully adjust their leverage to ensure safe trading. On the daily chart, MACD continues to rise, so as long as the price does not close below the 10-day moving average, a buy strategy is recommended. On the 240-minute chart, gold formed a buy signal after a pullback and is attempting a third wave of buying. However, it is crucial that gold continues rising to avoid forming a bearish divergence. If further gains do not materialize, gold may enter a box pattern. Overall, a buy strategy remains favorable for gold. However, traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to today’s JOLTS report. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21510 / 21410 / 21345 / 21220 / 21120 -Sell Levels: 21580 / 21640 / 21680 / 21780 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 71.80 / 71.30 / 70.50 / 69.85 -Sell Levels: 72.75 / 73.15 / 73.80 / 74.50 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2844 / 2832 / 2827 / 2820 -Sell Levels: 2859 / 2864 / 2870 / 2874 / 2885 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants. Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period. In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan. The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target: o Entry Zone: An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry. o Stop Loss: Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. o Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level) Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level) Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone. Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL: o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick) Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800. o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580. Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value. Execution and Market Conditions To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.   Key Considerations Before Entering Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure Final Thoughts This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management. For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
9
USOIL Trade Update📢 FX:USOIL Trade Update Hey Traders! Following recent fundamental and technical developments, we’re seeing strong bullish momentum on Crude Oil. 🔹 Fundamentals: Trump's new tariffs are driving market sentiment, pushing oil prices higher. Despite last week’s excess supply from the US oil stock inventory, Crude held strong at $72 and failed to close below the 38.2% Fib level, signaling strong buy pressure. 🔹 Technicals: The descending channel breakout confirms a bullish reversal. This rally was triggered by the tariff remarks, and if more tariffs are imposed, we could see Crude pushing towards $80+ in the coming weeks. 🎯 Plan of Action: We’ll be looking for buy/long positions on market open (Monday), ahead of the next Crude Oil inventory report. Regardless of the report outcome, momentum suggests higher prices for the black gold. 📊 Stay ready, and trade smarter! 🚀
FX:USOILLong
by niclaxfx
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ filled the gap and closed lower after facing resistance. As mentioned last Friday, the 21,911 level was a likely resistance zone due to the nature of the gap. This resistance played a significant role, and coincidentally, concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Mexico and Canada intensified, leading to a decline into the afternoon session. Since the monthly candle has closed, let's first analyze the monthly chart. Last month, I mentioned that a decline to the 5-day moving average (20,880) was possible before a rebound, and indeed, the index rebounded from 20,700. Given that the price sequentially bounced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages after breaking out of the monthly range, this month presents a challenging situation for determining direction. While further upside is possible, the monthly MACD may attempt to reduce its gap with the signal line, making a strong rally less likely. If a sharp rally occurs, the upper Bollinger Band at 22,736 should be considered as resistance. On the downside, the monthly 5-day moving average at 21,084 may be tested this month. Since the market could move in either direction, chasing momentum on the monthly chart should be approached with caution. On the weekly chart, a sell signal remains active, with the MACD failing to cross above the signal line, suggesting that further downside remains likely. On the daily chart, while the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, today's bearish candle close may trigger a sell signal, opening the possibility of a move toward the lower Bollinger Band and the 120-day moving average. If the MACD does not break down and instead turns higher while the price rises, it will be crucial to see if the 21,911 gap is decisively broken and closed with a bullish candle. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal is still in place, and the index remains in a large range. Buying on dips remains favorable, but if a sell signal appears, the current moving average setup suggests a high probability of sharp declines. This week, Google's earnings report on Tuesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday are key events to watch. Additionally, with the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies increasing market volatility, traders should manage leverage carefully and remain cautious. Crude Oil Oil closed near breakeven but surged in after-hours trading following reports that Canadian energy imports may face new tariffs. On the monthly chart, oil remains within a range, but the MACD is persistently attempting to cross above the signal line. Last month’s breakout from a four-month consolidation range suggests that buying on dips at the 3-day moving average may be a favorable strategy. On the weekly chart, the buy signal remains intact. Despite some pullback, the large gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests that a sharp breakdown is unlikely. On the daily chart, as previously mentioned, the $72 level remains a strong buy zone. The MACD is in a steep downtrend, but given the presence of prior demand zones and the 240-day moving average acting as support, a technical rebound could be strong after two weeks of declines. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has bounced off the signal line, forming a bullish divergence, making long positions more favorable. Given the characteristics of the 240-day moving average, a rebound toward $74.50 is technically reasonable. Overall, buying on dips remains a preferred approach, but market volatility is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainties, so trade cautiously. Gold Gold pulled back as profit-taking emerged after a sharp rally, closing lower after finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the monthly chart, gold formed a strong bullish breakout candle, making dips toward the 3-day moving average (2,770) a favorable buying opportunity this month. A pullback to this level should be expected. On the weekly chart, a buy signal appeared last week, but the MACD’s lower value compared to the previous peak suggests a potential bearish divergence. This means that despite breaking above prior highs, if the MACD fails to confirm with strong upward momentum, the rally may weaken. Caution is advised when chasing momentum. On the daily chart, today is a key day for buy setups near the 5-day moving average, making a pullback likely. However, the broader trend remains bullish, so rather than shorting, traders should look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks at key support levels. On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance and declining. The MACD is at a high level, meaning even if a bearish crossover occurs, attempts to move higher may persist. Buying near support remains the preferred approach. With Trump’s increasing policy activity and China’s Deepseek issues, market volatility is expected to rise. Always prioritize risk management and trade safely. Wishing you a successful trading month! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Bullish Market -Buy : 21,530 / 21,460 / 21,420 / 21,370 / 21,290 -Sell : 21,590 / 21,690 / 21,775 / 21,850 / 21,930 Crude Oil - Range Market -Buy : 73.50 / 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 -Sell : 74.50 / 75.00 / 76.00 / 76.40 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy : 2,825 / 2,820 / 2,812 / 2,807 / 2,804 -Sell : 2,841 / 2,846 / 2,852 / 2,856 / 2,860 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard