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Crudeoil!

USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILShort
by ShahedZare
WTI CRUDE OIL Very strong sell signal on top of the Channel DownWTI Crude Oil has hit the top of the 11 month Channel Down. Along with that, it reached the MA50 (1w) for the first time in also 11 months (since August 30th 2022). This is the strongest sell signal the November 7th 2022 Lower High. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 66.80 (Support 1). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is getting rejected on a Double Top formation near the overbought level. If it crosses under the MA trendline, it validates the sell signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
9
Crude Oil Bearish Iran’s Growing Oil Production Boosting UpTechnical Analysis: WEEKLY BEAISH Daily Bearish 4H Bearish In the chart above I have highlightened the trend, the Bear and Bulltraps. We have falling Highs/falling Lows. A bullish pullback signs eveytime low volume and low volatility that is the evidence of bulltraps caused by oil companies(and big speculators) The oil companies have also their own trades who push the pices fo a short time to make profits and accumultae thie losses,caused by low oiil pices. Also thier investors demand higher pofits. I am short in Oil, aleady fom July of 2022, and sell everytime the picks of the bullish short tem trend. This means I increase my selling positions bigge and bigger.So trade with the trend. I avoid to buy oil, or go long, nor I ignore the weekly reports, as they are vey short tem and can changed the next moment, but eview the fundamentals on bigge picture. The maket will target 39USD. So I have mentioend 4 different scenaios and shown you their routes. 3 scenaio ae bearish with very high probability:Tend is bearish, Fundamentals ae bearish. The weak USD has less impact here, cuz it is not the only indiacto that moves the oil market. To become Bullish(Scenario 4(see the chat above!!!) Many things must happen: The ask for oil must incease damatically(OPEC production stop,world war,....)Even the impact or Russia Ukraine war was fo a short time. The fundamental trend is beaish,as no one is inteested in higher oil prices. Even producers avoid it, as higher oil ppices cuases higher costs. Indicators: I have my own indicators, and dont use the common indicators. So my Bulltrap/beatap detector is confriming that. In the chart above we see that long term and mid term Indicators are red(Beaish trend/Stong bearish trend) The shot tem Indicator is geen, meaning bulltap. If you compare the indicator values withe the chart prices, you will notice they produce best possible signals whe to get short of long. The same is true for daily chart, or lowe time frames. Several factors can influence the direction of oil prices: 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics: If global oil supply surpasses demand, it can put downward pressure on prices. Factors such as increased production from major oil-producing countries or a decrease in global demand due to economic slowdowns or shifts towards renewable energy sources can contribute to weaker oil prices. Conversely, supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected increases in global demand can drive prices higher. 2. Economic Conditions: Economic growth and global economic stability play a significant role in oil price movements. During periods of economic expansion, demand for oil tends to increase, potentially leading to higher prices. Conversely, economic downturns or recessions can reduce demand for oil and exert downward pressure on prices. 3. Geopolitical Events: Political conflicts, sanctions, or disruptions in major oil-producing regions can impact oil prices. Supply disruptions or threats to supply can lead to price increases, while the resolution of conflicts or increased production capacity can contribute to price decreases. 4. Energy Transition Efforts: As countries and industries increasingly focus on transitioning to cleaner and renewable energy sources, the demand for oil may be influenced. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote renewable energy can potentially lead to lower long-term demand for oil and put downward pressure on prices. However, the pace and extent of the energy transition vary globally, making it challenging to predict its immediate impact on oil prices. It is crucial to consider that oil price movements are affected by complex and interrelated factors, and their future direction is challenging to forecast accurately. Market dynamics and unexpected events can cause significant price volatility, making it important for investors and stakeholders to closely monitor global developments and factors influencing the oil market. Oil tried many times to break the 2022 lows at 75,33 Fundamentally nealy eveything is speaking for weaker oil prices: 1. U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs See More Losses The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, after a 6-rig increase last week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday. The total rig count fell to 675 this week—81 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 400 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic. The number of oil rigs declined by 3 this week to 537, while the number of gas rigs fell by 2, to 133. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 5. The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 5—13 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and was down 10 rigs from this time last year. Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell by 12 in the week ending July 7, to 260. The frac spread count is 25 behind where it was this time last year. Crude oil production levels in the United States slipped back to 12.3 million bpd in the week ending July 7, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—a gain of 100,000 bpd from the beginning of the year.  U.S. production levels are now up 300,000 bpd versus a year ago. 2. U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC With Record Production In 2023 The EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, eclipsing the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day. Energy experts have generally been bearish about U.S. crude supply with many arguing it has already peaked. Rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment were some of the problems that were hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale to increase output. 3. Weaker US Dollar is bad for Oil Prices and Oil price will fall deeper. The reasons are: A weakening of the US dollar can have various effects on the production and prices of oil. Here are some conditions and reasons that may lead to such an outcome: 1. Currency Exchange Rates: A weaker US dollar relative to other currencies can make oil more expensive for countries that trade in dollars. This can lead to reduced demand for oil, which may result in lower production levels to match the reduced demand. 2. Import Costs: A weaker US dollar can increase the cost of importing oil for countries that rely heavily on oil imports. Higher import costs can create an incentive for these countries to reduce their oil consumption or seek alternative energy sources, which can affect oil production levels. 3. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation can be influenced by the strength or weakness of a currency. When the US dollar weakens, it can lead to higher import prices, including the cost of imported oil. If inflation becomes a concern, central banks may respond by tightening monetary policy, which can have a cooling effect on the economy and potentially impact oil demand and prices. 4. Global Economic Conditions: A weakening US dollar can be a reflection of broader global economic conditions. If the global economy is experiencing a slowdown or recession, demand for oil may decrease, resulting in lower oil prices. In such a scenario, a weaker US dollar may be just one factor contributing to the overall decline in oil prices. It's important to note that the relationship between the US dollar, inflation, and oil prices is complex and influenced by multiple factors. Changes in oil prices can be influenced by geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, production decisions by major oil-producing countries, and other market forces. The interplay between currency exchange rates, inflation, and oil prices can vary depending on the specific circumstances and the broader global economic environment. The news states that the total number of active drilling rigs in the United States has decreased by 5, following a previous increase of 6 rigs. Here are some potential interpretations and examples of the impact of this news: 4. Production and Investment: The decline in the number of active drilling rigs suggests a slowdown in oil and gas production activity in the United States. Fewer rigs imply that energy companies are scaling back their exploration and drilling operations, which can lead to a reduction in production levels. This decline may indicate a cautious approach by companies in response to various factors such as lower oil prices, reduced demand, or economic uncertainties. 5. Employment and Economic Effects: The decrease in active rigs can have ripple effects on the economy. As drilling activity slows down, it may result in job losses in the oil and gas sector, as well as related industries that support drilling operations. Communities heavily reliant on the energy industry may experience reduced economic activity and lower income levels. 6. Regional Impact: The news also provides specific information about the decline in the rig count in certain regions. For example, the Permian Basin saw a decrease of 5 rigs compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential slowdown in oil and gas exploration in that area. Similarly, the Eagle Ford region experienced a decline of 1 rig, which may suggest reduced drilling activity in that particular location. These regional variations can have localized economic consequences, affecting employment, local businesses, and government revenues. 7. Market Implications: The decrease in the rig count can influence oil and gas prices in the market. If the reduction in drilling activity leads to lower production levels, it could contribute to a decrease in the global oil and gas supply. Depending on the balance of supply and demand, this may put upward pressure on prices. Overall, the decrease in the number of active drilling rigs suggests a potential slowdown in the US oil and gas industry. It can have implications for production levels, employment, regional economies, and market dynamics. However, it's important to consider that rig count fluctuations are influenced by various factors, and it is advisable to analyze longer-term trends and broader industry developments to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Based on the provided news, here are some interpretations and examples of the impact: 8. Frac Spread Count: The decrease in the Frac Spread Count by 12 suggests a decline in the number of crews completing unfinished wells. This indicates a potential slowdown in the completion of wells, which could be attributed to various factors such as reduced investment, operational challenges, or market conditions. Completing unfinished wells is generally cheaper than drilling new wells, so a decrease in this count may indicate cost-cutting measures in response to economic factors. 9. Crude Oil Production Levels: The report indicates that crude oil production levels in the United States slipped to 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending July 7. This slight decline in production may be influenced by factors such as maintenance activities, operational issues, or natural production declines. However, it's worth noting that compared to the beginning of the year, there has been a gain of 100,000 bpd, and production levels are up by 300,000 bpd compared to a year ago. These figures indicate a gradual increase in production over time. 10. Oil Prices: The news provides information about the current trading prices of WTI and Brent benchmarks. WTI benchmark was trading down $1.27 (-1.65%) at $75.62 per barrel, while the Brent benchmark was trading down $1.26 (-1.55%) at $80.10 per barrel. Despite the daily decline, both benchmarks have seen an increase compared to the previous week, with WTI up nearly $3 per barrel and Brent up $2.50 per barrel. The fluctuation in oil prices can be influenced by various factors, including global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. In summary, the news suggests a potential slowdown in the completion of unfinished wells, a slight decline in crude oil production levels, and fluctuations in oil prices. These factors can be influenced by a range of economic, operational, and market-related considerations. It's important to monitor long-term trends and analyze broader industry developments to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Clean Energy Funds: The US government has allocated $20 billion from the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to facilitate clean energy projects. The funds will be awarded through two competitions: the National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) competition and the Clean Communities Investment Accelerator (CCIA). These initiatives aim to support clean technology projects, promote financing options, and focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities. The move is part of the government's efforts to expand clean energy investment and reduce pollution nationwide. 11. Subsidy War: The news mentions a "subsidy war" between European countries and the United States, as the latter is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to its generous planned subsidies. France has accused the United States of unfair competition and has introduced its own act, the Net Zero Industry Act, in an attempt to compete. 12. Iraq's Oil Production: Iraq's parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country's oil production to over five million barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to reach 13 million bpd. Iraq is considered one of the largest underdeveloped oil frontiers globally, with substantial proven reserves and the potential for even more undiscovered resources. However, endemic corruption has hindered growth in the oil industry, impacting Iraq's ability to maximize its oil production potential. 13. Corruption Challenges: Iraq's oil and gas industry has been plagued by endemic corruption, resulting in significant financial losses for the country. This corruption has deterred Western companies from investing heavily in Iraq, despite its vast oil reserves. The lack of infrastructure investments and the mismanagement of compensation payments have contributed to lower production levels than what could be achieved with the available reserves. Corruption in Iraq's oil sector has been a recurring concern highlighted by Transparency International and has hindered effective state-building and service delivery. 14. Western Companies' Withdrawal: Major Western oil companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have withdrawn or planned to reduce their involvement in Iraq's oil fields due to risks associated with corruption, security concerns, and inadequate legal structures. These companies have been cautious about operating in Iraq, as political changes and uncertainties can impact their operations and pose risks to their business interests. Overall, the news highlights the US government's commitment to clean energy investment, the challenges faced by Iraq in realizing its oil production potential due to corruption, and the withdrawal of Western companies from Iraq's oil sector. The underlying theme in both stories is the need for transparent governance, sound legal frameworks, and anti-corruption measures to create an environment conducive to sustainable energy development and attract long-term investments. 4,Potential Impact of Iran's Oil Production: Iran's monthly oil production is gradually increasing, posing a challenge to OPEC's control over the oil market. Although talks of a new nuclear deal leading to an influx of Iranian oil have created market instability, such a deal has not materialized. However, if sanctions are lifted and Iran's production potential is fully realized, it could conflict with OPEC's efforts to regulate the market and maintain high oil prices. The uncertainty surrounding Iran's oil production adds a mysterious element to the oil markets. 1. OPEC's Concerns: The possibility of Iran's oil returning to the market raises concerns for both traders and OPEC. OPEC has exempted Iran from production cuts for years due to sanctions. Iran's oil production figures, reported monthly by OPEC, may not be entirely accurate. The potential reentry of Iranian oil into the market could disrupt OPEC's influence and market control. Rising Investment in Offshore Exploration: Despite a focus on disciplined investment, major oil companies are increasing their investment in offshore exploration. They anticipate higher returns from large offshore projects compared to low-carbon energy investments. This shift in strategy is driven by the expectation of increased profitability and the need to ensure a secure supply of oil and gas. 1. Offshore Rig Demand: Deepwater rig utilization is on the rise, driving up rates as companies ramp up exploration activities. Demand for offshore rigs is expected to increase by another 20% from 2024-2025. The "Golden Triangle" regions of Latin America, North America, and Africa, along with parts of the Mediterranean, are expected to account for a significant portion of global floating rig demand. Clean Energy Funds: The US government has allocated $20 billion from the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to facilitate clean energy projects. The funds will be awarded through two competitions: the National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) competition and the Clean Communities Investment Accelerator (CCIA). These initiatives aim to support clean technology projects, promote financing options, and focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities. The move is part of the government's efforts to expand clean energy investment and reduce pollution nationwide. 1. Subsidy War: The news mentions a "subsidy war" between European countries and the United States, as the latter is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to its generous planned subsidies. France has accused the United States of unfair competition and has introduced its own act, the Net Zero Industry Act, in an attempt to compete. 2. Iraq's Oil Production: Iraq's parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country's oil production to over five million barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to reach 13 million bpd. Iraq is considered one of the largest underdeveloped oil frontiers globally, with substantial proven reserves and the potential for even more undiscovered resources. However, endemic corruption has hindered growth in the oil industry, impacting Iraq's ability to maximize its oil production potential. 3. Corruption Challenges: Iraq's oil and gas industry has been plagued by endemic corruption, resulting in significant financial losses for the country. This corruption has deterred Western companies from investing heavily in Iraq, despite its vast oil reserves. The lack of infrastructure investments and the mismanagement of compensation payments have contributed to lower production levels than what could be achieved with the available reserves. Corruption in Iraq's oil sector has been a recurring concern highlighted by Transparency International and has hindered effective state-building and service delivery. 4. Western Companies' Withdrawal: Major Western oil companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have withdrawn or planned to reduce their involvement in Iraq's oil fields due to risks associated with corruption, security concerns, and inadequate legal structures. These companies have been cautious about operating in Iraq, as political changes and uncertainties can impact their operations and pose risks to their business interests. Overall, the news highlights the US government's commitment to clean energy investment, the challenges faced by Iraq in realizing its oil production potential due to corruption, and the withdrawal of Western companies from Iraq's oil sector. The underlying theme in both stories is the need for transparent governance, sound legal frameworks, and anti-corruption measures to create an environment conducive to sustainable energy development and attract long-term investments.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
USOIL/ XTIUSD SHORT/SELL🔰 Pair Name : XTIUSD 🔰 Time Frame : 4hrs/ Daily 🔰 Scale Type : Long Scale 🔰 Direction : Short/ Sell As a professional trader, I would like to highlight the key resistance levels for WTI crude oil. The primary resistance areas are located at $80.00, within the daily supply zone, and at $77.30, represented by the 200-day moving average (MA). Conversely, crucial support levels can be identified at $75.00 and $72.50, which form the weekly market imbalance area below. Upon analyzing the daily chart, it is evident that the bulls are currently testing the 200-day moving average in conjunction with the channel resistance, specifically around the $77.2 price area. This particular resistance has proven significant since August 2022. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought levels, signalling a potential pullback, akin to the price action observed in early April. Consequently, traders should closely monitor the psychological handle of $75.00 as a pivotal level from a bearish perspective. Meanwhile, bullish traders will be eager to witness a confirmation close above the critical resistance zone, as this could signal a potential move towards the $80.00 level. In conclusion, as professional traders, it is essential to attentively observe these price levels and market indicators to make well-informed trading decisions, capitalise on potential opportunities, and exercise caution in the face of potential risks.
FX:USOILShort
by Moon_SmartMoney
3
Still bullish on Crude & OXYIm going to try and post this a THIRD time now, as you can see from the first post on June 26th & June 28th. Apparently you cant utilize the Twitter post feature on charts because its solicitation or advertisement, even though im just using the timestamps to show I actually called it publicly like I am stating here. ========================================================== "Ive been looking at AMEX:XLE and NYMEX:CL1! lately and becoming more bullish for multiple reasons, specifically on NYSE:OXY OPEC supply cuts and Geopolitical tensions with BRICS nations could cause supply uncertainty The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve's have been drained Tech exhaustion is setting in and I believe buyers will rotate into Energy Trading well after breaking $70/bbl WTI 50DMA is $73.45 CTA flows are skewed to the upside OXY 52w low 55.51 - 52w high 77.13 (todays open - 56.15) price-to-sales ratio in 2016 was 5.5 and is currently 1.54 now Berkshire keeps buying more and now owns 24.97% of OXY So my thesis is a mixture of macro, fundamental and technical indications. The risk-to-reward ratio was there for me so I went long at 1030am on the pullback 6/26/23 and add more on 6/27/23 on the big pullback. XLE was the leading sector by a mile today. It needs to clear 58 and 58.75 for a continuation higher. The chart below illustrates all the timed purchases by Birkshire(Warren Buffet) and the amount of money in each order. As you can see, he buys around the same exact levels for the past year." ========================================================== NYSE:OXY is currently sitting at 62.66, up roughly 11.6% since my original post 28days ago. NYMEX:CL1! made a high of 79.28 today, up roughly 15.38% since my original post 28 days ago. I believe it will be a slow grind from here to 82, but that break upwards needs to happen for continuation. I maintain my thesis on Crude and the rising tension in the GeoPolitical climate and how it will affect its price. The Saudis maintain their resolve to lessen production in accordance with OPEC. I have theories relating to this one on a potential good trading setup which I will post later. That is all for now.
NYSE:OXYLong
by d3f4ult
Oil Prices WILL Fall Demand concerns Fed Rate HikesOil prices continued to trend lower in morning trade in Asia, with WTI heading toward HKEX:78 and Brent moving closer to $82. Canadian Government Admits It’s Short Tens Of Thousands Of Oil Workers The Fed has repeatedly indicated that is it not done with rate hikes, which traders see as countering any growing demand from China. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: STRONG Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 79.46. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 73.95 level soon. MY TARGETS 74.75 72.55 70.25 68.95 if boken, then 64,55 61,95 59,80
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
WTI CRUDE OIL: Critical triple Support level. Huge downside beloWTI Crude Oil got heavily rejected on the 1D MA200 on Friday (the 1D RSI also on the oversold 70.000 level), the long term technical Resistance of the asset, and now the 1D timeframe is very close to turning neutral (RSI = 55.9310, MACD = 1.200, ADX = 35.829) for the first time since July 5th. Today the price has hit three key support levels, the HL trendline since the bug rally started, the 1D MA100 and the 4H MA50. Practically, a candle close under the 1D MA100, is a sell extension validation and we will see to target first the 1D MA50 (TP1 = 71.75) and secondly the S1 (TP2 = 66.80). As long as the Triple Support holds, we will buy since the risk is very low and target the 1D MA200 again (TP = 76.90). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
4
Buying The Dips in Crude Oil CL1!Crude Oil is the market to watch right now as everyone has turned complacent with inflation slowing. If CL starts to rally that can change the inflation story very quickly and potentially get a lot of trader off guard. Fundamentally CL has a lot of reasons to rally according to many of the Macro Traders I follow. Technically CL also has a bullish look as it has started to firm up above it's Auto-Anchored VWAP for the year, above the VWAP's from the recent swing high and lows and above my key neutral area on my Beacon Indicator. In this video I lay out how I will be playing CL in the coming days/weeks. Cheers, DELI
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by anthonycrudele
1
Oil: Sellers setting up for further downside? Today's focus: Oil Pattern – 1st leg Pull back Possible targets – 72.75 Support – Resistance – After Friday’s strong move lower, could we see further selling before oil stabilises after last week’s firm rally back to the $80 Handel? That’s the question I am asking in today’s video, and if we do see further selling, we will also be looking for signs that buyers are looking to form a new continuation higher, maintaining the first leg break out. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDShort
by Eightcap
Any nae sayers??USD/Chinese Yuan has been showing dovish signals during the 3rd qtr and after the news on July 12, 2023 (which can be located on the blue location tab) the economy shows to be slowing down significantly. After news printed on the 12th of July 23, price made a clear decision just 4 hours later we can start to see some clear institutional movement with the dovish engulfing candlestick and a day later structure appears to continue downside pressure especially with the Pin bar holding at a resistance. This could lead to a further drop in price. Even though this pin bar has printed i'm still looking at price for a sell off from the previous news update for a stronger move to the downside. I will be patiently waiting for this move to happen. 38 Pip S/L 558 Pip T/P Let me know what you think?
Short
by Da_KahunaFx
2
WTI CRUDE OIL The 1day & 1week MA50 form a huge Resistance ZoneWTI Crude Oil / USOIL reached today the 1day MA50 for the first time since mid April. That April contact resulted in a strong rejection to the 1week MA200 that (even though it had breaches) has closed all weekly candles over it, establishing itself as the long term Support. The long term Resistance is the 1week MA50, which is marginally higher than the 1day MA50, with the two forming the strongest Resistance Zone for the long term. The 1week MA50 has had two clear rejections in October and November, at the early stages of the formation of the Channel Down. This pattern still holds and the price is approaching its top. At the same time the 1day RSI is approaching the top of its Channel Up. The two have aligned tops and bottoms. Sell now since the price is already inside this huge Resistance Zone. Target the 1week MA200 at 68.50. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILShort
by TheCryptagon
11
CL - Crude Oil is respecting the Lower extremes ProjectionI've been often asked, how I choose the A/B/C Points when I apply a Pitchfork. Just use context and learn the Swing rules. Then you cannot go wrong, and you will get the correct information from the market when you throw a Pitchfork on the Chart. Be open minded, but don't force your meaning to the market. The market is doing what he wants. So, we look for a change in behavior. Something obvious. FACTS. Don't FOMO. There's plenty for you, even if you miss a couple points or eve $s. Let's put the stalking Hat on.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared. This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation. It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL. Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe. I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable. Just look how big the discount is on the monthly: One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April. Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs. Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM. All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot. The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down. It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8. What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry. One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy. I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low. We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like: Equities correct USD up Energy up Metals up 10Y yield up VIX up Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans. The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market. Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back. A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances. In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap. How hot will July, August, and September be in North America? Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive. Are you really expecting $1.50?
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
25