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Crude Oil - Bearish On Oil? Saudis Made The US Cover Its Short.I've had a number of successful calls on crude oil, which you can find in my post history. In those calls, I had always been bearish on oil, anticipating a run to a 4-handle. However, I reassessed my prior assumptions when the MMs took out the Low Of The Year in quick order to start May. I haven't been particularly sure in the time that has passed, but between price action and some recent news, I now believe oil is set to reverse. The situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is very tense. The pandemic has taken a huge toll on the country, which the Party is not reporting to the world, and you can tell this if you look at their obviously bogus COVID death and infection stats published on major data aggregators. This matters because since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, there's become something of an alliance between the Saudis, Russia, China, and India, with many oil transactions no longer settling in the U.S. Petrodollar. So you have to be really careful trading right now with the geopolitical situation at hand. Everyone has flipped bullish on equities and is expecting a new parabolic run, but the situation is just as prime for a sharp and dramatic turnaround, which I reference in my recent call on the SPY ETF: SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears When it comes to China, Xi has the looming threat of having inherited Jiang Zemin and the CCP's persecution of Falun Gong, which targeted 100 million people and has even harvested their organs. Xi and the CCP also face the growing trend of the movement to return to China's traditional 5,000 year culture, which is the crown jewel, the magnum opus, of the whole world and all of human history. So the most important country in the world is very unstable, and you aren't hearing anything about what is going on. But the controllers know something is wrong and are scurrying about frantically, thinking about how they can take your stuff on the way down. So, my bearishness on oil has been based on the fact that the Biden Administration has drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, significant because although OPEC+ is a huge producer of oil, the US and its vassals, such as Canada, by far produce the most oil in the world. Washington selling the SPR is a short on the market by definition and they unloaded hard in the 90s and 80s, saying they wanted to buy back in the 60s. Yet the two times we've had oil in the 60s, they haven't rebought. I believe they intended to drive the market lower for longer and rebuy then. A few recent pieces of news came out. One is OPEC had a scheduled meeting in Vienna in early June, which they held in person, despite the next major meeting being in July. During that meeting, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg found themselves disinvited, while every other media did not. Moreover, on Friday The Washington Post stated that Saudi King MBS warned the Biden Administration it would inflict economic pain when the US complained about production cuts. The Saudis have teeth because they own Aramco, which is also stationed in the United States, and the Saudis buy arms from the military industrial complex. NATO and the US needs to have the Saudis not wanting to get rid of them if they are to have any chance of deposing Putin and taking Russia for the New World Order. It's been well known that OPEC+, of which the Saudis are the biggest producer by far, want higher prices and need $80-100 to continue to run a national surplus. The second biggest news is a June 9 announcement from the Department of Energy stating the US will replenish 6 million barrels of oil from the SPR. This means Washington is covering its shorts. Now, you'll complain, fairly so, that the Democratic Socialists of America have sold some 280 million barrels of oil from the SPR since Biden was inaugurated in 2021, and you're right. 6 million barrels is certainly a drop compared to what they've sold. However, a look at the EIA website puts the 6 million barrel figure into perspective: since November of '22, only 20 million barrels have been drained. I will repeat myself again: the market maker is covering its shorts and that means it's very immediately dangerous to be short on oil and oil companies. So, this is hard to go long on because the delta between $70 and the $63 low is 10%, and on futures at $1,000 PnL per $1 move per lot, that's a lot of "Ouching" as Abdulaziz has said for early comers. However, generally speaking a bottom is a bottom and that means there won't be a new low. Either way, it's up to you to figure out where to go long and when to go long and if you want to go long. The most immediate target, even in an ultimately bearish continuation scenario, is $85, and more specifically, $95. And you may very well see a 9 handle as early as August or September. The problem with short on oil is on the monthly: COVID hysteria was an ultimate bottom. If -$40 wasn't an ultimate bottom then you call your mom and ask her what an ultimate bottom could be and let us know in the comments. If you've got an ultimate bottom and no real highs were taken, the the market is aiming higher, and not lower. A breakdown of price here means that oil as an industry is not going to recover, but yet green energy is a fallacy and alternative energy sources are nowhere to be found, while worldwide crude supply is actually not particularly abundant anymore. So what fundamental story is supposed to be used to drive oil lower? A bunch of talking heads on Twitter complaining that oil is going lower? That doesn't move markets. Producers have to deposit actual oil to go bigly short because contracts settle in physical goods. Moreover, the price action in March before the big move down in May was really, really peculiar. You see it more clearly on the weekly: Like, $2 away from a breakaway gap is where it chose to dump and actually set a new low of the year? Really, to me, this says that since we haven't dumped anymore and now we're getting fundamentally extremely, extremely bullish news, that the target can only be $95. People, for whatever reason, tend to like to buy above highs and so they'll get bullish at $85 and $95. But why not get bullish at $70? Warren Buffet keeps buying OXY. Is he doing this because oil is on the verge of another 5 year bear market? If oil is going to pump, what does this mean for equities? What does it mean for the VIX? With what's going on in the world, what does it mean for the future? How long will the happy continue? It's really worth giving some sober thought to, and it's really worth cutting the furus and the propaganda outlets out of your information cycle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
10
Nikkei break out? - China's JapanificationThe recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse. IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in. Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports - post Covid - BUT a very anemic internal demand, with import numbers steadily surprising to the down-side (by a lot!). Simultaneously Japanese heavy industry is racking up some solid numbers lately, especially in regard to steel, automobile and electronic components. All of this is fueled by an abating chip shortage, giving world wide car production a boost. E.g. Watch the Nikkei price action and fully expect a blinding YEN rally should that 30,000 level get blown away!
OSE:NK2251!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/7/23For Friday, 69.45 can contain session weakness, above which 72.81 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later next week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.27 within 1 - 2 more weeks.   Downside Friday, closing below 69.45 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain selling through next week and above which 77.27 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI CRUDE OIL Over the 1day MA50. Bullish break out.WTI Crude Oil closed yesterday over the 1day MA50 for the first time since April 28th. The 1day MA50 was a Resistance with 3 clear rejections since. This is a technical bullish breakout, targeting the 1day MA100 at 73.50. If rejected there, sell and target the Support Zone at 67.50. If it closes a candle over the 1day MA100 too, buy again and target the 1day MA200 at 76.50. The 1day RSI is on a Rising Support, which can be used as a sell target and buy entry. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILLong
by TheCryptagon
5
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/6/23For Thursday, 69.55 can contain session weakness, above which 72.80 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.20 within 1 - 2 more weeks.   Downside Thursday, closing below 69.55 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain weekly selling pressures and above which 77.20 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?Despite a quiet start to the week for the US holidays, there is still plenty going on. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept interest rates at 4.1%, sending the Aussie dollar lower before flying back like a boomerang to where it was trading, at 0.6680 against the USD. On Wednesday (21:00), we get to see the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, where they held rates at 5.25%. However, the market is pricing in at least two more rate hikes by the end of the year, so traders will be looking for clues in the minutes as to if and when this might happen. With Saudi Arabia announcing an extension to their oil production cuts through to August (and possibly further) and Russia following up with a 500K cut of its own, the price of WTI rallied on Monday before slipping back to $70 a barrel. Keep an eye on US oil inventories (18:00 Thursday) as there was a massive 9 million drawdown last week which surprised the market and could further support the price. On Friday (15:30), the US will release its latest unemployment numbers. Despite seeing an increase of 339K in Non-Farm payrolls last month, there was a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Canadian unemployment data is also released at the same time, which makes USDCAD particularly volatile over this period. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Exploring Seasonality in Crude Oil PricesWhat rises, must fall. What comes down, goes up again. This rings most true for crude oil prices. Both secular and seasonal trends are at play in crude oil prices. Demand for oil moves in tandem with global economic activities. Key secular trends impacting oil markets over this decade was covered in our previous paper . These range from falling demand from developed markets, and rising demand in emerging economies, among others. While secular trends unravel over a longer time, seasonal cyclical effects can be observed over a short term. This paper will explore consumption patterns driving annual seasonality in crude oil prices. In Part two of this paper, we will illustrate trading crude oil derivatives to harness opportunities arising from seasonality. CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CHAIN: AN OVERVIEW Gluts and shortages, economic growth and contractions, and geopolitics impact crude oil prices. Different events impact various segments of the supply chain. The global crude oil supply chain is complex and intricate. It can broadly be classified into Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream. Upstream and midstream sectors drive crude oil supply. Upstream outage or shortage affects available supply which are sometimes evened out by the midstream through adequate inventories. Downstream and midstream drives demand. End consumer demand is observed in distribution. Refineries adjust output based on their margins which in turn is derived from crude oil prices and refined product prices. WHAT DRIVES SEASONALITY? Seasonality in demand for refined products impact crude oil prices. Higher demand for refined products (gasoline, diesel, and kerosene) is observed in summer because of travel. While lower supply is caused by maintenance linked pauses in downstream during winter. Crude oil inventory shifts can be segmented into four phases, namely: (1) Inventory Build Up (Feb - May), (2) Summer Travel Spikes Demand (Jun - Aug), (3) Demand Shrinks & Supply Contracts (Sep - Nov), and (4) Winter led demand spike (Dec - Jan). This seasonality is evident in US crude oil inventory shifts as exhibited below. Impact of seasonality is not always directly apparent or predictable. Why? Crude oil is so deeply intertwined with global economics. Shocks, if any, can have an outsized impact on prices and volatility. Also, supply cuts from majors oil producers and GDP shifts in major consumers have jumbo effect on prices. Consequently, other factors moderate or nullify impact of seasonality. The below chart shows the average price behaviour of Crude oil from the start of each year over the past twenty (20) years by using CME front month crude oil futures price data from TradingView. Orange bars in the above chart represents average monthly price change measured over last twenty years. Meanwhile, the white bar shows monthly price change for the same period but after excluding the outliers. Outlier years include 2008 (global financial-crisis), 2020 (pandemic), and 2022 (Russia-Ukraine conflict). Crude prices go bullish on higher demand by refineries starting in March and continue to rise through the summer months as demand for refined products remains high driven chiefly by increased travel. However, by August, sufficient refined product inventories dampen demand. With refineries slowing for maintenance, crude demand declines leading to a moderation in price. Finally, a small uptick is observed in December as demand starts to rise again during peak winter. The average monthly returns for each month are displayed below. However, note that the standard deviation for these averages is non-trivial indicating that month-of-the-year effect on crude oil prices is uncertain and, in many cases, statistically insignificant. This conclusion is also arrived at based on various academic research papers. METHODS TO HARNESS CRUDE OIL SEASONALITY Three most common methods to harness gains from seasonality include: a. Futures (highest upside and highest downside), b. Call options (upside limited relative to futures and limited downside risk), and c. Call and/or Put Spreads (limited upside and limited downside). Traders can deploy options to express a directional view with unlimited upside and limited downside. In a long options position, the downside is limited to the premium paid. Conversely, a short position in options involves selling an option. This offers upside limited to the premium collected but exposed to unlimited downside. TRADE SET UP ILLUSTRATIONS From July until November, based on historical observations over the last twenty years, crude oil prices tend to fall. We could set up a trade using the December contract month of CME Micro Crude Oil Futures which expires on Nov 17th: 1. Short Futures: Short Futures position in MCL Dec 2023 contract (MCLZ3) at USD 70 per barrel with the anticipation that prices will fall by November. 2. Long Puts: Long Put options on MCLZ3 at a strike of USD 69 per barrel with a hypothetical options premium of USD 3 per barrel. 3. Bear Call Spread: Bear Call Spread with a net premium of USD 1 per barrel on MCLZ3 comprising of a short call option at a strike of USD 71 a barrel (collecting options premium of USD 5 per barrel) and a long call option at a strike of USD 73 a barrel (paying options premium of USD 4 per barrel). The Bear Call Spread profits a fixed amount equal to the net premium when both options expire out of the money. When only the short call options expires in the money, the position loses by having to pay the options buyer. However, when both options expire in the money the profit from the long option partially offsets this loss resulting in a capped downside. Each CME Micro Crude Oil Futures contract represents one hundred barrels of crude oil. Accordingly, the above three trade set ups are illustrated across various price scenarios as shown below. Please note that these illustrations do not include (a) transaction costs comprising of exchange trading and clearing costs and brokerage fees, and (b) capital costs associated with margins required for establishing these positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
4
Short Crude Oil on ResistanceIn crude oil trading today, we made good profits in the trading strategy of shorting crude oil in the 70.6-70.8 area twice. Judging from the current structural trend, crude oil will maintain range shocks in the short term, and fundamentally still maintain a short position. Although the inventory data has declined for two consecutive weeks, the pressure on the demand side is still very weak, and the U.S. dollar index has rebounded.Crude oil as a whole tends to run in a bearish trend. In terms of short-term structure, crude oil is currently facing the resistance of 71-71.2. If this area cannot be effectively broken through, then crude oil may still fall to the 69 position area at any time. Therefore, before crude oil fails to break through the short-term resistance, it is mainly to short crude oil. USOIL: @70.8-71 Sell, TP: 70.2 For more trading signals and trading plans, you can follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
TVC:USOILShort
by Trader_Christofer
WTI CRUDE OIL: Sell opportunity on the LH trendline and 4H MA200WTI Crude Oil hit today the 4H MA200 after more than a week flipping the 1D chart neutral and the 4H bullish (RSI = 61.440, MACD = 0.100, ADX = 44.090). This is however approaching the RSI's R1 Zone, holding since April, while the LH trendline looms right ahead. Also this is where the 0.5 Fibonacci level is. Technically this is the most optimal sell entry for the short term and we will take full advantage of it targeting the S1 (TP = 66.80). On the contrary, a crossing over the LH trendline, will be a buy entry targeting the 1D MA100 and 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 73.00). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
5
Target reached! Crude Oil ReviewPrice bounced strongly above the 67.31 support level towards our take profit target - but how did we do it? Join Desmond in this analysis review where he covers the reason why this setup worked nicely. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:USOILEducation
by FXCM