XOM OUTLOOK 06/05 -06/09After finishing March and April strong and making all time highs at 119.92, NYSE:XOM pulled back in May to a key support level around 102. With $CL_F setting up for a bullish week, and the Saudis plan to cut their OPEC+ oil supply by 1 million barrels per day, we could see gas prices rise and a potential buying opportunity in $XOM.
Technical Analysis:
NYSE:XOM tested a breakdown of the macro channel we’ve been watching, but was able to reclaim the support during Friday’s session. As long as we respect this channel, I can see us continuing higher. We also have a dirty inverted head and shoulders with the daily 102.33 level as the neckline.
Bulls will want to hold above 106.26, reclaim the 200 day moving average and break above the weekly level at 107.90. My lean is bullish, and will look at the 50% short retrace at 110.59 as a potential price target this week.
Bears will want to see price action below 102.33.
Upside Targets: 106.26 → 107.55 → 107.90 → 109.58 → 109.61 Extended: 110.59
Downside Targets: 105.00 → 103.32 → 102.33 → 101.26 → 99.18 Extended: 97.02
Crudeoil!
Crude Oil with a Strong Support Creating a Triple Bottoms Crude oil has consistently respected the strong support level around $67, leading to multiple bullish reversals. The presence of a triple bottom structure further reinforces the potential for an upward continuation. It is important to wait for the price to confirm a bullish breakout on the key level, as this would indicate a clear shift in the market structure.
WTI OIL Buy signal targeting the 1D MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) reversed after hitting our previous target (see chart below) and is now rebounding again:
As you see it bounced off the previous Support Zone of the candle bodies, which we view it as a Pivot Zone similar to the one formed on December 16 2022. On both sequences the 1D RSI rebounded after almost turning oversold (below 30.00) and the current rebound was from the symmetrical 37.50 level.
The technical target is the Higher Highs trend-line and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), as it did on January 18, which we project to be at 75.00. Keep in mind that since November 04 2022 (almost 7 months) of long-term Channel Down trading, the price almost hit the 1D MA100 before getting rejected.
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USOIL is getting cheapWe recently noted that an interesting opportunity to go long oil could be on the horizon soon. Accordingly, we waited patiently for the price to fall below $70 per barrel. Now, with the price trading near $68.80, we are starting to consider the price attractive to go long. However, we think it is proper not to use all the firepower yet as technicals still point to more downside. Therefore, our plan is to start accumulating in very small batches and unload the stash with the price retracing back above $70. With that said, we would like to set a price target for USOIL at $71.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI CRUDE OIL Sell continuation at least to 64.50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is on a strong 1 week selling streak after the rejection on the 1day MA50.
With the MACD on a Sell Cross and the price long broken under the Rising Support, every similar past sequence hit at least Support A.
You can even sell on the current market price and target 64.50.
The long term trend remains heavily bearish inside almost a yearly Channel Down. Every contact with the 1day MA100 is a sell opportunity.
Previous chart:
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USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysissee picture for analysis
-Higher Timeframe Trend = downtrend
-Price broke upward trend line
-Price removed opposing pivot demand
-RBD 4hr supply created
-Price below 200MA
-Some traders will look to short pullback into 4hr supply
while other traders will use the 4hr as the HTF
and wait for price to return into the 4hr supply
and use the 5 or 15min for confrimation short entries.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Under Bearish Pressure!🛢
WTI Crude Oil was consolidating for quite a long period of time within a horizontal trading range.
Its support was broken today.
It may push the price much lower.
Taking into consideration that the market is trading in a long - term bearish trend,
I will expect a bearish continuation to 64.0 level.
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CRUDE OIL ( XTIUSD ) Long Term Technical AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By World of Forex
today nzdcad analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
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This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
Oil Order Flow - OFA Script Triggers Bearish OutlookHey traders,
One wonders. Is there a case to be made to be short Oil? The OFA is telling us, you bet there is, judging by the realized order flow as depicted by the script.
I won’t defend this point with any subjective opinion.
Instead, I will let you see the Oil chart in this 4h timeframe, with the OFA script attached to it, to show you what’s the current state of affairs.
What do you notice in this chart? 'DIAMONDS' tend to see a failure in amplifying the move in equal or greater magnitude than the preceding cycle.
When that occurs, we want to stay on the lookout as this is by no means a sign that validates aping in, but rather it is an early sign that the tide might be turning.
We then start getting more validation should the structure start shifting by breaking the previously identified low in the OFA script, in this case at $71.00.
If that break materializes with price acceptance beyond, then we know we might be onto something. Well, all the stars are now aligning for further falls in Oil.
Remember the two key main features of the OFA script :
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Bullish opportunity for oil might be on the horizon soonFor some time now, we held the view that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil would remain volatile, trapped within a wide range between $70 and $82. Then more recently, we stated that the oil price was likely to break below $70 as the U.S. administration sought to unload more crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Today, we would like to highlight (again) how the United States has continued to play a carefully calculated game in the oil market for the past two years.
Between 7th January 2022 and 6th January 2023, the U.S. administration drained its crude oil in Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) by approximately 221,8 million barrels (by 37% in the respected period), selling a significant portion of the stockpile at a relatively high price. By doing so, the administration put pressure on rising energy costs, which, combined with other factors, helped drive the price of WTI crude oil from nearly $130 per barrel on 8th March 2022 toward the $70 price tag in the first half of 2023.
With the oil prices being down by approximately 45% from their 2022 highs and SPR being drawn by 39% from 7th January 2022 (up to date), the U.S. government is (unsurprisingly) changing its policy concerning Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm notified the public that the Energy Department would begin refilling SPR as soon as next month.
We think this process could make a good case for a temporary rebound in the oil price and thus bring an interesting opportunity to go long (though only for a very limited time) if the price falls below $70 again. Until then, however, we will stay on the sidelines and patiently wait. If the price drops below Support 1 at $69.44, we will reassess the situation and (potentially) start looking for attractive entry-level.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Oil set to break its consolidation?Today's focus: Oil
Pattern – Ascending Triangle
Possible targets – Downside 69.73, Upside 76.50
Support – 71.49
Resistance – 74.05
Hi traders, today we’re looking at oil after yesterday’s fast move down that snapped a three-day winning streak. Could this be the start of a move that breaks out of the current ascending triangle pattern? Sellers have some support to beat, and if it holds, it could hold the price in the consolidation until 74.05 is beaten.
We will be watching to see if yesterday’s selling was more than one session and if price could be set to make a new move lower.
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
Oil is shaping to a bearish wedge pattern.Hi, I can see a wedge in the Oil 4H time frame. The entry level is between 74.20-74.8. You can set your stop loss at 75.1 and your target for this pattern should be at 71, 70.1 and 69. It's better to wait and watch for price consolidation at the entry point before entering the trade.