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Crude Oil

Oil BearishMarket Structure: Oil is in a downtrend making lower highs and lower lows and approaching a key level (resistance, downtrend line, swing high) and there is likely an accumulation of buy orders which are made up of breakout traders and stop losses of short positions. This accumulation of orders creates enough liquidity for the market to match orders at this high point before positioning to go lower. Trade: Wait for price to close above the swing high point and enter short on a sell stop @ 84.518
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Mankz
Short Dated Options to Deftly Manage Oil Market Shocks"Volatility gets you in the gut. When prices are jumping around, you feel different from when they are stable" quipped Peter L Bernstein, an American financial historian, investor, economist, and an educator. Crude oil prices are influenced by a variety of macro drivers. Oil market shocks are not rare events. They appear to recur at a tight frequency. From negative prices to sharp spikes in volatility, crude oil market participants "enjoy" daily free roller-coaster rides. Precisely for this reason, crude oil derivatives are among the most liquid and sophisticated markets globally. This paper delves specifically into weekly CME Crude Oil Weekly Options and is set out in three parts. First, what’s unique about short-dated options? Second, tools enabling investors to better navigate crude oil market dynamics. Third, a case study illustrating the usage of weekly crude oil options. PART 1: WHAT’S UNIQUE ABOUT CME CRUDE OIL WEEKLY OPTIONS? Macro announcements such as US CPI, China CPI, Fed rate decisions, Oil inventory changes and OPEC meetings drive oil price volatility. Sharp price movements can lead to premature stop-loss triggers. When prices gap up or gap down at open, stop orders perform poorly leading to substantial margin calls. Weekly options enable hedging against these risks with limited downside and substantial upside. Closer to expiration, options prices are sensitive to changes in the prices of the underlying. Small underlying price moves can have outsized value creation through short-dated options. Hedging with weekly options allows investors to enjoy large upside potential. Short duration vastly reduces the options premium burden. This high risk-reward ratio has made short-dated options popular among both buyers and sellers. The daily traded notional value of Zero-DTE options (Zero Days-To-Expiry, 0DTE) have grown to USD 1 Trillion. Among S&P 500 options, 0DTE options comprise 53% of the average daily volume (ADV), up from 19% a year ago. In 2020, CME launched Weekly WTI options with Friday expiry (LO1-5), offering robust, round-the-clock liquidity and enabling precise event exposure management at minimal cost. These weekly options are now the fastest growing energy products at CME with ADV growing 69% YoY with June 2023 ADV up 136% YoY. Building on rising demand, CME added weekly options expiring Monday and Wednesday. At any time, the four nearest weeks of each option are available for trading. Weekly options settle to the latest benchmark CL contract and like other CME WTI products, they are physically deliverable ensuring price integrity. Each weekly WTI options contract provides exposure to 1,000 barrels. Every USD 0.01 change per barrel change in WTI represents a P&L change of USD 10 in premium per contract. PART 2: EIGHT TOOLS TO BETTER NAVIGATE CRUDE OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Highlighted below are eight critical tools across TradingView and CME enabling investors to better navigate oil market dynamics. 1. OPEC+ Watch OPEC+ Watch charts the probability of different outcomes from OPEC+ meetings. Probabilities are derived from actual market data & represent a condensed consensus market view of forthcoming meetings. 2. News Flow TradingView’s News section collates the key market developments impacting crude oil. 3. Forward Curve TradingView maps crude oil prices across the forward curve exhibiting oil’s term structure. Augmenting the forward curve chart is a table CL contracts across various expiries with technical signals embedded in them enabling investors to spot calendar spread trading opportunities. 4. TradingView Scripts Supported by a vibrant community of script creators, TradingView has curated scripts catering to the specific needs of crude oil traders. OIL WTI/Brent Spread by MarcoValente: Shows the spread between WTI and Brent crude. This spread is growing in importance with growth in US oil exports. Seasonality Indicator by tradeforopp: Presents seasonal price trends along with key pivot points to guide traders. 5. Economic Calendars TradingView’s economic calendar highlights upcoming economic events segmented by dates and with countdown timers to help traders better manage their portfolios. Augmenting, TradingView’s calendar is CME’s Economic Events Analyzer which lists key events specifically impacting energy markets and highlights the relevant weekly options contract. 6. Options Expiration Calendar CME’s Options Expiration Calendar is a comprehensive yet condensed view of upcoming expiration dates of WTI options, even those that are not listed yet. 7. Daily/Weekly Options Report CME’s Daily/Weekly Options Report profiles volumes and OI by strike price for weekly options supplying key stats such as Put/Call ratio and key strike levels at a glance. 8. Strategy Simulator CME’s strategy simulator allows investors to simulate diverse options strategies. Selecting the relevant instruments and adding each component of the overall position automatically calculates the payoff while still allowing modification of key statistics such as volatility based on user inputs. The below shows the payoff of an ATM straddle position for the upcoming Monday weekly option. It also allows simulating various market conditions. Selecting price trends such as up fast, up slow, flat, down slow, down fast can simulate the changes in P&L. PART 3: ILLUSTRATING USAGE OF WEEKLY CRUDE OIL OPTIONS Why does CME list weekly options expiring on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday? Each of these address specific macro events. OPEC meeting outcomes are typically announced over the weekend leading to gaps in prices on Monday. EIA weekly crude oil inventory data are released on Wednesdays. Key US economic data such as CPI and Non-farm payrolls are released on Fridays. Use Case for Options expiring on Monday These can be used to hedge against downside risk associated with weekend events. For instance, in April, OPEC+ announced major supply cuts at their meeting on Sunday. This led to WTI price spiking 4% at market open. This can lead to “gap risk.” Gap risk refers to the risk that markets may open sharply above or below their previous close. Since, price never passes the levels in between, stop loss orders fail to trigger at set levels resulting in more-than-anticipated realised losses. Such gap risks from weekend news can be managed through Monday weekly options which provides a predictable and resilient payoff with limited downside risk. Use Case for Options expiring on Wednesday Oil inventory reports by EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) and API (American Petroleum Institute) are released every week on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Major misses/beats against expectations for these releases can result in large price moves. Wednesday options come in handy to better manage volatility stemming from these shocks or surprises. Weekly options provide superior ROI on small moves when compared to futures. Favourable price moves deliver larger payoffs from position in weekly options than futures and shorter expiries allow for much lower premium than monthly options. Illustrating with Back tested Results On June 14th, Crude price fell by 1.7% (USD 1.2) to USD 68.7/barrel upon release of inventory data that showed a larger than expected inventory build-up. In the lead up to this data release, a crude oil participant could either (a) Short Crude Oil Futures, or (b) Long Weekly Crude Oil Put Option. Summary outcomes from these two strategies are tabulated and charted below. The results speak for themselves. Short dated long put option is capital efficient, prudent, and credible as a risk management tool. That said, participants must evaluate the risk return profile taking into consideration market liquidity and volatility levels, among others, when choosing between instruments. KEY TAKEAWAYS In summary, 1) Weekly Options can be cleverly deployed to hedge against shocks in oil markets. 2) TradingView & CME provide a rich suite of tools to deftly navigate the oil market dynamics. 3) Weekly options expiring on (a) Monday helps manoeuvre developments over the weekend, (b) Wednesday helps to manage inventory data linked shocks, and (c) Friday enables investors to trade and hedge around key US economic data. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
6
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet. What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads" Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports. Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector. There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels. The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through. Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel) Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive. So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe. Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year. If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ). This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil. The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87. If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now. The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff. There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line. This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend. I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark. As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by RomanoRnr
1
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
TVC:USOILShort
by ShahedZare
Swing Buy Opportunity in TATA POWERPlease Refer the Chart of Entry, Target and SL. Please do follow Position Sizing and Risk Reward Ratio while planning any trades. Note: This information is for education purpose only and please do your own research and consult your financial advisor prior to taking any action. TO CONNECT WITH ME CHECK OUT MY BIO. If you like this Idea, Please do like my ideas and share it with your friends. check my bio. Please boost my ideas and send cheers as it acts as a motivation to keep posting my analysis. Thank you
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by rkinspiro1
3
$CL Crude Oil FuturesCrude oil futures have been in a parallel uptrend since June 28th. On August 5th, Crude Oil futures tested the double top from April 13th, but were unable to break through. This is a bullish sign, as it suggests that buyers are still in control of the market. Now, we are waiting for a period of bullish consolidation before a breakout to the upside. The next resistance level to watch is the $90 per barrel mark. If crude oil futures can break through this level, it could open the door to further gains. Overall, the outlook for crude oil futures is bullish. The current uptrend is still intact, and buyers are still in control of the market. A breakout to the upside is likely in the near future.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by AlgoTradeAlert
XTIUSD ( US OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet today XNGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILShort
by ShahedZare
2
50 or 100?USOIL has rallied from 70 to 76 after RSI divergence on the daily chart. The key challenge if upward trend has to solidify is breaking and retest of the 200EMA, which is currently at 77. Failing which, a possible return to the lows. 1. In the weekly chart, pull back to the 200EMA in Jan, has been stuck in a range between 67 and 83 since then. 2. Breakout of resistance could lead prices to 100, breakdown of support could lead to the 50 zone. 3. Breakout on the upside could pile on downward pressure on Nifty and Bank Nifty due to the dependence of the Indian economy on crude. 4. Crude traded higher, the market hoping for a pause in the interest rate hikes by the Fed in its meeting next week.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradeception_
1
Crude Oil Slows Down For A New CorrectionCrude oil faced strong drop and spike back in May, which can be also considered as the final leg of wave (5) of A, so we are aware of a higher degree A-B-C recovery after strong reversal up from the lows. After a completed wave A and expanding triangle in wave B, which is tricky, but still a bullish pattern that already sent prices higher, ideally within a five-wave bullish impulse into wave C. Now that came back to projected April highs for wave 5 of (3), we can see a new, higher degree A-B-C correction within wave (4) that can retest 77-75 support area before the uptrend for wave (5) resumes.
NYMEX:CLU2023
by ew-forecast
1