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WTI CRUDE OIL Waiting for the 4hour MA50 to break.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL has turned sideways on the 4hour time frame, neutralizing the bearish trend of January. Right now there is a clear Support and Resistance Zone, with the 4hour MA50 getting the last rejection. If this breaks and closes a candle over it (4hour MA50), it will be a bullish signal like February 10th. We are already on a MACD Bullish Cross which was the first bullish signal in early February. So if Oil gives that MA50 break out, buy and target the bottom of Resistance A at 73.25. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILLong
by TheCryptagon
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil StrugglesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Struggles Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $70.00. Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today - WTI Crude oil prices failed to clear the $73.50 region and started a fresh decline. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $73.50 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $72.20 support. The price even dipped below the $71.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $70.20 level. A low was formed at $70.12, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.87 swing high to the $70.12 low at $71.00. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00. The first major resistance is near the $71.85 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.20 level. The main resistance could be near the $73.35 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $70.00 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $68.80. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $65.00 support zone. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
2
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the 3-day moving average. On the weekly chart, the index formed a strong bullish breakout candle, yet a confirmed buy signal has not yet materialized. This week, the focus will be on whether the index can hold support at the 3-week moving average, allowing for further upside potential. However, if the weekly candle closes as a bearish candle, a new sell signal could emerge, making this week’s closing price critical. On the daily chart, as noted last Friday, the Nasdaq bounced off the 3-day moving average, which means today’s key support level is the 5-day moving average. This suggests that if the market pulls back in the pre-market session or briefly tests the 5-day MA intraday, a rebound could follow. A key factor today is the U.S. market holiday, meaning today’s daily candle will merge with tomorrow’s session. If the market moves up first, it could present a short opportunity at the highs, while a downside move first could offer a dip-buying opportunity. On the 240-minute chart, buying pressure remains strong, making buying on dips the preferred strategy. However, given the gap between price and the 5-day moving average, traders should avoid chasing longs and instead focus on buying at lower levels. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower following news of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. On the weekly chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. However, the gap between the MACD and the signal line is narrowing, suggesting that if a bullish crossover fails, a strong move could follow. After four consecutive weeks of decline and last week’s doji candle, this week’s closing price is critical—if oil closes with a bullish candle, it could signal a potential reversal. On the daily chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line, keeping the sell signal active. However, strong historical support levels make it difficult to short aggressively. Oil is also attempting to form a double-bottom pattern near $70, making a break above $72 a key bullish confirmation. The short-term price action remains mixed, making lower time frames more relevant for positioning. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains intact, with the key focus on whether oil breaks below $70. If oil fails to break lower, a bullish divergence could form, making chasing shorts a high-risk strategy. Given that U.S. markets are closed today, liquidity will be lower, so expect reduced trading volumes. Gold Gold closed lower, forming a double-top rejection at previous highs. As mentioned last week, the 2950+ zone was an overextended level, and now the price has pulled back sharply. On the weekly chart, gold remains in an uptrend, but a pullback toward the 5-week moving average remains possible. Since it is unclear how deep the correction may go, traders should only buy dips at lower levels to ensure proper risk management. On the daily chart, gold closed below the 10-day moving average, marking a technical shift. Throughout this entire rally, the key rule was to buy as long as gold held the 10-day MA, but now that it has broken, the market has shifted into a range-bound structure. However, since the MACD has not yet formed a bearish crossover, the market still has the potential for another rebound. Gold’s price action will depend on whether it can reclaim the 10-day MA or continue consolidating within a larger range. For now, the 2915–2920 zone (near the 3-day and 5-day moving averages) is a likely resistance area, while downside risk extends toward the 20-day moving average. On the 240-minute chart, a strong sell signal has appeared, but both the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, meaning that buying attempts could still emerge. Meanwhile, on the 60-minute chart, gold is testing its 240-period moving average, a level that often acts as a major support/resistance pivot. Considering these factors, gold is likely to remain range-bound this week, making box-range trading strategies the most effective. Given that a double-top pattern has formed, further downside could trigger increased volatility, so traders should be cautious. Today, the U.S. market is closed, with key events scheduled for later this week: -Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes -Thursday: Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations Rather than a new trend forming, markets are likely to consolidate within existing trends, leading to range-bound conditions. Risk management remains the top priority—stay disciplined, and have a successful trading week! If you like detailed this analysis and today's strategy, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further: Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions. Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile. OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon. U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher. With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand. 2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways. AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging. Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase. Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions. With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption. Agriculture & Food Production The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs. Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand. Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up. 3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples: 2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis. 2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply. 2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil. Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive. Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise. Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth. If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities. 4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026 Current Setup Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area. Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+. Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance. 0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target. 1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026. This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable. 5. Investment & Trading Strategy Long-Term Bullish Strategy Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support). Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125. Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis). Hedging Against Market Risk SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn. Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets. Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase. Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices. AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand. If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback. While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by JavierXBT
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher, breaking through resistance near 22,000. Although Trump held a press conference on tariffs, the market interpreted the grace period as a bullish signal, driving a breakout from the previous range with a strong bullish candlestick. On the daily chart, the MACD remains in an upward trend, and since the index has broken out of its previous range, today’s strategy should focus on buying at the 3-day moving average, which aligns closely with the previous range high. Today marks the weekly close, making the Retail Sales data release a crucial event. If price action sustains its bullish momentum, it will be important to check whether a weekly buy signal is confirmed on the closing price. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has emerged, reinforcing the breakout above the range. Buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, but traders should stay mindful of potential volatility spikes around the Retail Sales report. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off the $70 support level with a long lower wick. Despite this rebound, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant. However, this area also represents a strong historical support zone, making buying on dips a favorable strategy. As mentioned earlier this week, oil is forming a potential double-bottom pattern, which could provide further upside potential. The key trigger would be either a bullish MACD crossover near the zero line or a bearish continuation if the crossover fails, leading to a strong directional move. On the 240-minute chart, price action has exhibited a false breakdown, followed by a bullish divergence, suggesting that a bottoming process is underway. Buying on pullbacks remains the most effective approach, but traders should be cautious with weekend risk, as Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations could bring unexpected developments. Gold Gold closed higher, digesting the PPI data while trading near previous highs. The key focus is whether gold is forming a double-top pattern at this level. The recent rally can largely be attributed to global inflation fears stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. On the daily chart, the buy signal remains intact, but traders should be cautious, as a corrective pullback could emerge at any time. The MACD and signal line tend to converge naturally, so chasing momentum at current levels carries increased risk. On the 240-minute chart, gold has bounced off the 2,900 support level, triggering a buy signal. However, there is now a wide divergence between price and MACD, meaning that even if gold breaks above previous highs, the MACD may fail to surpass its previous peak, potentially signaling a bearish divergence. If a divergence forms and price pulls back, the correction could be sharp, as overbought conditions often lead to strong reversals. However, since the MACD and signal line remain well above the zero line, even a pullback is likely to find support, leading to a range-bound structure. The safest approach is to buy only at key support levels. Today’s Retail Sales report could drive significant market volatility, particularly as it will influence the weekly close. Always focus on the larger trend, manage risk effectively, and stay disciplined. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀 Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. Thank you. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 22000 / 21945 / 21900 / 21840 -Sell Levels: 22160 / 22240 / 22300 / 22360 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market(March) -Buy Levels: 71.10 / 70.45 / 69.85 -Sell Levels: 71.85 / 72.55 / 73.00 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2945 / 2936 / 2930 / 2921 -Sell Levels: 2966 / 2974 / 2985 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed higher despite Trump’s tariff announcement. On the daily chart, the MACD buy signal remains intact, and the index posted a strong bullish candlestick, confirming an upward bias. However, given the lack of volume behind the move, the market remains within a range-bound structure rather than signaling a clear breakout. For meaningful upside continuation, a decisive breakout above 22,000 is required. Until then, the market is likely to remain in a 21,000–22,000 range, as failure to break either side would prevent the MACD from creating a strong divergence from the signal line, leading to further sideways consolidation. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, but the price is struggling to hold its gains. If the MACD fails to cross above the signal line and instead turns lower, a failed breakout scenario could trigger a sharp decline. Given the low-volume rally from yesterday, chasing longs at current levels is not ideal. Instead, it is safer to maintain a range-trading strategy, with buying near the lower bound and selling near the upper bound. Additionally, if the index fails to break above the range high, a bearish MACD divergence could develop, increasing the risk of a downside move. Traders should avoid aggressive breakout buying and instead focus on disciplined range-bound positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, reaching the 10-day moving average, as MACD attempted to reconnect with the signal line. The $70–71 support zone remains a strong demand area, making dip-buying strategies favorable. As mentioned yesterday, the key question is whether oil will form a double bottom at $70–71 before breaking higher, or if it will continue rallying without a retest. Given the wide gap between the MACD and signal line on the daily chart, a failure to complete a golden cross could lead to another pullback, making chasing longs above $74 risky. On the 240-minute chart, oil has confirmed a bullish divergence, triggering a strong upward move. For the first time in a while, strong buying pressure has returned, reinforcing the buy-on-dip strategy. However, traders should monitor price action carefully as resistance levels approach. Gold Gold closed at a new all-time high, rallying aggressively into overbought territory and even breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. Inflation concerns are intensifying globally, fueled by Trump’s escalating tariff rhetoric, which is driving a strong commodities rally in gold, copper, and other raw materials. Since gold has been in a continuous uptrend since confirming its buy signal on January 16, traders should be mindful that sharp pullbacks can occur at any time. Additionally, with key U.S. economic data releases this week—CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday—gold’s volatility is expected to remain elevated. Given the overbought conditions, the best strategy remains buying on dips, rather than chasing highs. On the daily chart, the MACD would need to form a bearish crossover for a more structured correction to take place. On the 240-minute chart, gold has been in a stair-step rally, with the 2940–2950 zone emerging as a key wave-based resistance level. However, overshooting this level is possible, making it critical to wait for confirmation before assuming a short position. For now, the buy signal remains intact on the 240-minute chart, reinforcing the buy-on-dip approach. However, given yesterday’s strong rally, some short-term consolidation or profit-taking is likely today. With Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release and Trump’s escalating tariff measures, global market volatility is increasing significantly. Risk management remains essential in this environment. Trade smart and stay disciplined! Today's strategy will only be provided until the end of this week. For more detailed strategies, please contact us on Telegram. Thank you. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21770 / 21720 / 21670 / 21550 -Sell Levels: 21850 / 21905 / 21960 / 22020 / 22100 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 72.10 / 71.70 / 71.30 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 72.95 / 73.35 / 74.50 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2934 / 2928 / 2922 / 2917 -Sell Levels: 2950 / 2955 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
WTI crude bulls eye $74Crude oil prices fell over 11% from the January high before support was found at the 200-day SMA and 50% retracement level on Friday. Trump's latest tariffs saw commodities rise on inflationary concerns, and that allowed WTI futures to post a daily gain of 1.6% - its best day since the January high. The 1-hour chart shows an impulsive move with no immediate threat of a top forming, and it seems plausible that the market is now reaching for $74 as part of a counter trend move, near the monthly pivot point and weekly R2. However, as Monday's trading volume was the lowest of the year, it shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm. So unless we see volumes rising alongside prices, I am to assume the current bounce is simply a correction against the drop from the January high. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
2
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point. Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions. Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios: Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong. Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal. Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively. Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout. Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout. Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals. Summary The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
NYMEX:CL1!
by dPEngineering
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed lower as the market digested the Employment Trends Index (ETI) report. On the weekly chart, a sell signal is in play, yet the index remains within a range-bound structure. Until it reclaims the 5-week moving average, any upside move could still face rejection. On the daily chart, the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, meaning the buy signal remains intact. A critical moment is approaching: will the index break below the 20-day and 60-day moving average golden cross, or will it regain bullish momentum? If a daily sell signal emerges, downside targets extend toward 20,940, where the Bollinger Band lower boundary and 120-day moving average converge. Although a gap-down occurred today, as long as the daily buy signal holds, traders should approach this market with a range-bound mindset rather than assuming a strong breakdown. On the 240-minute chart, the index encountered resistance at the upper range boundary. A bearish engulfing candle triggered a sell signal, but since both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, this still suggests a range-bound market. Buying dips and selling rallies remain the most effective strategy. Market volatility is increasing following Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on most countries. Additionally, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release could be a major catalyst—keep it in mind when positioning. Crude Oil Crude oil closed higher, bouncing off support on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows strong support at the 20-week moving average, making further downside moves challenging. The $70–71 zone remains an attractive buy area, and with the weekly buy signal still intact, traders should avoid aggressive short-selling. On the daily chart, oil has yet to reclaim the 5-day moving average, and the MACD remains below the zero line, while the Signal line is still above it, indicating a mixed market structure. Given the potential for a bullish MACD crossover, long positions remain more favorable. The ideal price action scenario would involve a push to the 10-day moving average, a pullback to retest the $70–71 range, and then a double-bottom formation, leading to a strong upside breakout. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has re-emerged, suggesting a short-term bottom formation. Additionally, MACD bullish divergence is forming, reinforcing the bullish case. Selling into weakness should be avoided, while buying dips remains the preferred strategy. Gold Gold closed higher but formed a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure at the highs. On the weekly chart, gold is trading above the Bollinger Band upper boundary, placing it in overbought territory. At the start of the week, traders should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on buying pullbacks at key support levels. If gold continues to extend gains, shorting near the highs could be an option. However, volatility is expected to increase due to key data releases: Wednesday: U.S. CPI Thursday: U.S. PPI On the daily chart, the long wick suggests that gold may enter a consolidation phase around 2,900. If the 5-day moving average is lost, a 10-day moving average pullback could set up a range-bound structure. The MACD is in the process of narrowing toward the signal line, indicating that a corrective phase may occur this week. Buying pullbacks remains the preferred approach. On the 240-minute chart, gold has broken above previous highs, but the MACD is declining, signaling bearish divergence. Now that a sell signal has emerged, the MACD is shifting lower. In the short term, selling rallies remains more favorable, while long positions should only be considered near strong demand zones. Given the CPI release on Wednesday, gold may remain range-bound until then. Stay cautious, and trade within the range. ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21550 / 21470 / 21420 / 21340 / 21220 -Sell Levels: 21680 / 21715 / 21800 / 21900 Crude Oil - Range-Bound Market -Buy Levels: 70.70 / 70.30 / 69.80 / 69.20 -Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.50 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2885 / 2878 / 2873 / 2862 / 2856 -Sell Levels: 2906 / 2917 / 2926 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1! The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components: Ichimoku Indicator Components: 1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average) • Short-term trend indicator. • A sharp slope suggests strong momentum. 2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average) • Medium-term trend indicator. • Acts as a support/resistance level. 3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead) • Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud). • A rising Span A suggests an uptrend. 4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead) • The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud). • When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red). 5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind) • Confirms trend direction. • If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum. Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku 1. Kumo Breakout Strategy • Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud). • Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo. 2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy • Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen. • Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen. 3. Chikou Span Confirmation • Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action. • Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action. 4. Kumo Twist • When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal. • When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal. 5. Trend Confirmation • Price above the cloud = bullish trend. • Price inside the cloud = consolidation. • Price below the cloud = bearish trend. Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy ✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance). ✅ Works well in trending markets. ✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals. Limitations ❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets. ❌ Can be complex for beginners. ❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD). Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by makerup
Weekly Market Forecast: CRUDE OIL Can Go Lower!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th. OIL is still trending to the downside, and sells are still valid. Until we see a bullish market break of market structure, sells all day. CPI Data news on Wednesday, so be careful trading into news day. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RT_Money
Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Pattern, Triangle Formation, and Key Back in January, despite strong rise, crude oil has seen limited upside and fully reversed the path. This is partly due to the Trump administration’s goal of bringing crude oil prices lower, with plans to refill the US strategic reserves. In fact data from the Energy Information Administration, showing that production has been gradually increasing since summer of 2023, around the time energy prices hit a swing high near $95. Since then, crude oil has consistently formed lower swing highs. So, if the Trump administration will really boost the oil production, it will likely put more downward pressure on energy prices and help ease inflation; the CPI y/y data, which is highly correlated with crude oil prices, could decline as well as shown on the weekly chart (but this will change if / when economy “booms”). From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking an ongoing A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern, but wave E could still push prices a bit higher, for a rally in the next few weeks, because the pattern appears incomplete. But, once this triangle concludes, I expect a break to the downside. This would likely coincide with lower inflation expectations as mentioned; thus lower US yields, and a weaker US dollar. Overall, my assumption is that crude oil will eventually break below $64 per barrel in 2025! GH
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ew-forecast
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq The Nasdaq closed slightly higher with low volatility. As mentioned yesterday, the daily chart shows that the index is holding support at the 3-day moving average, while the MACD remains in an upward buy trend. However, resistance is evident along the upper trendline connecting previous highs. Today, a pullback toward the 5-day moving average should be considered, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key catalyst in determining whether the uptrend continues. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, suggesting a consolidation phase that could gradually lift moving averages before another bullish wave emerges. Overall, a buy-on-dip approach remains favorable, particularly if a pre-market pullback toward the 5-day MA occurs. However, given the potential for increased volatility from today's data release, risk management is crucial. Crude Oil Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the 3-day moving average. However, downside support remains strong, making further declines difficult, which favors buy-side positioning. Since oil has now tested the 3-day MA, today’s strategy should focus on selling near the 5-day MA if a rally occurs. Both long and short positions should factor in weekly closing dynamics, as weekend geopolitical risks may lead to gap openings on Monday. On the 240-minute chart, oil remains in a downward trend, but signs of base formation are emerging. The MACD is nearing a potential golden cross, so traders should watch closely for a momentum shift. Additionally, geopolitical risks are increasing, with Trump tightening sanctions on Iran, adding to oil market volatility. Given these conditions, buying dips remains the preferred approach, but risk management is essential. Gold Gold closed lower, facing a sharp pullback after reaching the psychological level of 2900. The deep retracement suggests profit-taking at key resistance levels. Despite this correction, the daily chart still maintains a buy trend, and as long as gold holds above the 10-day moving average on a closing basis, the overall bullish bias remains intact. However, given that the MACD is completing its third bullish wave, a consolidation phase is likely as the MACD and Signal line begin to narrow. For now, buyers should focus on entering at lower levels to optimize risk-reward. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has emerged, leading to the current pullback. However, the MACD and Signal line are significantly below the zero line, meaning that despite the downtrend, buying interest could emerge on any further dips. This structure reduces the appeal of chasing short positions. Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is a major risk event, known for triggering extreme volatility in gold. As one of the most critical economic indicators for gold traders, managing exposure ahead of the release is crucial. Expect range-bound price action before the report, with a potential breakout afterward. Stay disciplined and manage risk carefully, as today’s NFP release will drive market volatility. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀 ■Trading Strategies for Today Nasdaq - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 21820 / 21750 / 21710 / 21625 / 21510 -Sell Levels: 21870 / 21930 / 22010 / 22070 / 22135 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 70.20 / 69.80 / 69.20 / 68.30 -Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.20 / 72.70 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 2876 / 2871 / 2862 / 2855 -Sell Levels: 2885 / 2892 / 2896 / 2902 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Futureguard