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Crude Oil

Crude Oil Trade Idea: Bounce from Support or Rally to $80?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). Crude Oil Futures Update Our prior trade idea from January 13 played out well, with Scenario 1 materializing. While prices briefly approached $80, crude oil futures have since retreated to trade near the $74 handle. As we close out January, here’s an updated map of key levels to watch: Key Observations: On the chart, we can see a downtrend channel after the recent push higher in crude oil. Our blue zone is our LIS (73.65 - 74 zone). We see the market pulling back towards the confluence of 2024 VAH, 2024 mid range and 2025 yearly open. This is our key support for bulls to take long trade. Scenario 1: Down and Back Up Watch for a pullback toward the key confluence zone from our LIS. A bounce from this confluence zone could offer a strong opportunity for bulls to take long trades, targeting higher levels. Scenario 2: Rally Toward $80 If prices reclaim the January 2025 mid-range and confirm bullish setups, long trades targeting a move back toward monthly highs in the $80 range may develop. For risk management during volatile conditions, traders can consider Micro Crude Oil Futures . Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
2
Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy. In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively. 2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures o Contract Specifications: Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity. o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL): Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract. Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies. o Margins: Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility). Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract. The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements: U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices. Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices. Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include: Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices. U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days. Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are: Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward. U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand. Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles: Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures. Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets. 7. Risk Management Strategies Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include: Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings. Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades. 8. Conclusion Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market. By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for Jan 26 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix. Disclaimer The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions. The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Tradius_Trades
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ closed lower, finding support at the 5-day moving average. Last Friday unfolded as expected, with a correction to the 5-day line being part of the wave pattern, making a sell-oriented approach the best strategy for the day. The downward wave emerged in the afternoon rather than during the pre-market, resulting in extended consolidation. On the weekly chart, it formed a bullish candle, reaching the upper range of the box zone; however, the MACD has yet to fully cross above the signal line. This week, the area between the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (20,800–20,600) could act as a short-term pullback buying zone. If this area fails to hold and prices close lower with a bearish candle, the market might revert to maintaining a wide-ranging box zone. Therefore, it's crucial to close the week with a bullish candle to confirm a buy signal. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are positioned above the zero line, indicating that buying pressure could persist. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting that significant additional surges are unlikely. A short-term correction perspective is advisable. If prices fail to decisively break above the 3-day moving average near 21,950, a correction to the 10-day moving average should be considered. The 240-minute chart shows the emergence of a long bearish candle forming a double top. If Friday’s low at 21,844 is breached, there’s a strong likelihood of filling the gap created on January 22. The MACD and signal line still show a significant gap from the zero line, so there could be support and a rebound at the lower levels. In summary, while a short-term sell perspective is advisable, buying opportunities could emerge near the gap-filling zone around 21,700 during pullbacks. OIL Oil closed higher at $74, finding support and forming a bullish daily candle for the first time in six trading sessions. This bounce establishes a foothold at the key support level of $74. On the weekly chart, prices found support at the 5-day moving average. Although the MACD has crossed above the zero line, the signal line is still slightly below it. If a bullish candle forms this week, it will confirm a buy signal on the weekly chart, favoring buy-oriented strategies. On the daily chart, prices could rise again, finding support at the 20-day moving average. However, the sharp downward angle of the recent decline from $79 and the ongoing sell signal from the MACD indicate that any rally may face resistance and pullbacks. If prices rebound to the $77–$78 range, there is a high probability of a pullback. The $74–$79 range is likely to hold, with a period of consolidation allowing moving averages to converge. On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence is forming near $74, and the MACD is on the verge of generating a buy signal. A buy-oriented strategy on pullbacks is advisable. GOLD Gold closed higher with an upper shadow on the daily candle. On the weekly chart, prices reached the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD, however, has yet to achieve a golden cross above the signal line, keeping the sell signal intact. A strong rally with a long bullish candle would be required to confirm a buy signal. If additional upward momentum fails and prices start to decline, the MACD may turn downward again. The current gap between the MACD and signal line suggests that an immediate buy signal might not be achievable. On the daily chart, buying pressure remains strong, and as long as the 10-day moving average holds, a one-way buying trend is likely. On the 240-minute chart, resistance is evident at higher levels, and divergence in the MACD could occur. It’s advisable to avoid chasing prices higher. Given the staircase-like upward movement, a buy-oriented approach on pullbacks is recommended. This Week’s Key Events: FOMC meeting (Wednesday) Tesla and Meta earnings reports (Wednesday) Apple earnings report (Thursday) Expect heightened volatility on Wednesday and Thursday. Good luck with your investments this week! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21,850 / 21,785 / 21,720 / 21,630 / 21,530 -Sell: 21,970 / 22,010 / 22,055 / 22,105 OIL - Range-bound Market -Buy: 74.15 / 73.40 / 72.80 / 72.40 -Sell: 75.20 / 75.95 / 76.40 / 77.10 GOLD - Bullish Market -Buy: 2,774 / 2,768 / 2,762 / 2,752 -Sell: 2,782 / 2,793 / 2,799 / 2,816 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Setting New LimitsWe’ve been patiently waiting for an entry at $58, but the market hasn’t reached our level. After reassessing the chart, we believe it’s now more profitable to play CL1! as a long following what appears to have been a fake breakout. Recent developments, including Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency to “unlock the liquid gold under our feet” and prioritize U.S. oil and gas development, could bolster bullish sentiment in the energy sector. If our wave count is correct, we are currently in intra wave 2 of wave ((iii)). If this setup holds, a target of at least $115 seems achievable. We are placing our limit order and will patiently wait to get filled. Key Levels at the moment: Support Zone: $67.70–$64.40 Resistance Zone: $85–$88
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed higher, supported by the 3-day moving average on the daily chart. After a recent surge, it has reached the upper Bollinger Band, with both the MACD and signal line crossing above the zero line, confirming a buy signal. However, due to the sharp rally, there is potential for a pullback today. If the price retraces to the 5-day moving average, it could consolidate within a range, allowing moving averages to converge. Should the NASDAQ fall further, the key question is whether it will fill the gap near 21700. If the gap remains unfilled and the price breaks higher, the daily buy signal would stay intact, potentially accelerating bullish momentum. On the 240-minute chart, the sell signal remains active despite a rebound. Selling at higher levels is preferable, while watching if the MACD avoids falling below the zero line and instead forms a golden cross with the signal line. Focus on dip-buying and selling at resistance, keeping the potential for a pullback to the 5-day moving average in mind. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, falling below the $75 level. It ended near the midpoint of the large bullish candle from January 10 ($74.66) after further downside pressure. This week’s decline reflects President Trump’s push to lower oil prices. Currently, crude is near the 20-day moving average and within the $74–$75 support zone, which aligns with the weekly 5-day moving average. This area is suitable for swing trading and dip-buying strategies. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, creating a short-term sell signal. However, the significant divergence from the zero line suggests that crude may consolidate with bullish candles before attempting another upward move. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has not yet formed a golden cross with the signal line, but selling pressure has weakened significantly. If a golden cross occurs, a strong rebound could follow. Avoid chasing shorts and focus on buying dips at key levels. GOLD Gold rebounded from key support levels, closing flat with a lower wick on the daily candle. The daily chart shows that bullish momentum remains strong, making dip-buying at major support levels the preferred strategy. Gold touched the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart before pulling back, indicating that a clear trend may not emerge until next week. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal formed at the recent high, with the MACD divergence leading to a sharp decline. While the price is recovering, the sell signal remains active, increasing the likelihood of another pullback. Gold appears to be consolidating within a range, building energy for the next leg higher. Today, focus on box-range trading with selling at resistance and buying at support. Be mindful of major economic data releases before the main session, and manage risks carefully. Best of luck with your trades, and have a successful end to the week! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Bullish Market -Buy: 21980 / 21910 / 21870 / 21790 / 21720 -Sell: 22040 / 22075 / 22110 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy: 74.10 / 73.40 / 73.00 / 72.40 -Sell: 75.10 / 75.70 / 76.20 / 76.75 / 77.10 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2750 / 2743 / 2737 / 2731 -Sell: 2770 / 2774 / 2779 / 2785 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
6
Prime Buying Opportunity for Crude Oil Nearing Crude oil is currently consolidating around the $75 level. A glance at the daily MACD reveals a close but no crossover of the MACD and signal lines. A bearish close today could signal a downturn, but a bullish close would likely see the MACD resume its upward trend. Since its correction from $79, the price has been holding above the midpoint of the January 10th bullish candle at $74.66. This level, also coinciding with the 5-day moving average on the weekly chart, is a crucial support zone. Given the significant volume accumulated in the first week of January, this presents a compelling opportunity for aggressive swing trading. Today's oil inventory report is expected to act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal. While the market is bearish on oil supply expansion due to Trump's election, technical analysis suggests further upside potential. We recommend adopting a buy-on-dip strategy. For daily insights into Nasdaq, oil, and gold, please follow and subscribe to my analysis.
TVC:USOILLong
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed higher on news of President Trump’s plans to expand AI investments. It surged strongly to the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, lifting the MACD above the zero line. However, a gap formed due to Netflix's earnings report, and there is a possibility that this gap could be filled during future corrections. While the signal line remains below the zero line on the daily chart, indicating the potential for a pullback, strong buying momentum on the 240-minute chart suggests the NASDAQ could rise further to the 22200–22300 zone. A sell-off might emerge only if the MACD on the 240-minute chart dead crosses the signal line, signaling a shift to a bearish trend. There is also upside potential to 22250, the upper boundary of the weekly chart, so it's wise to keep this level in mind. For now, focus on buying dips, but keep an eye on the transition from an uptrend (positive alignment) to a downtrend (negative alignment) on the short-term charts. If the 240-minute MACD dead crosses, it could signal a correction, so monitor the price movements closely. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, consolidating in a box range near the $75 level. The large bullish candle from January 10 serves as a key reference point, with the midpoint of that candle acting as a support level. For a rebound on the daily chart, a bullish candle needs to form. Currently, the MACD is closely aligned with the signal line. If the MACD avoids a dead cross and turns upward, there’s a high chance of a third bullish wave. Keep an eye on the upcoming crude oil inventory data to see if it triggers a trend reversal. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is attempting to cross above the signal line in the oversold zone, showing a potential for a rebound. With prolonged consolidation around $75, a strong upward move could follow any breakout. Avoid chasing shorts, and if the price drops to $74, it could provide a great buying opportunity. GOLD Gold closed higher, breaking above the 2760 resistance level. This breakout opens the possibility of further gains to the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, around 2780. However, the divergence between the MACD and the signal line on the weekly chart makes a further golden cross less likely, meaning a correction could occur in the next week or two. On the daily chart, the bullish trend remains strong, making it advisable to avoid short positions. The 240-minute chart shows a third bullish wave following a golden cross of the MACD, supporting further gains. Ideally, continued strength above 2780 would prevent a divergence from forming on the MACD, which could lead to a sharp decline if unaddressed. For now, use 2760 as support and focus on range-bound trading while monitoring for a potential breakout above key levels. Always be prepared for volatility and manage risk carefully. Positive market momentum is being driven by new government policies and plans, including tariffs, the Stargate Project, and expanded AI infrastructure investments. These developments could act as catalysts for further gains. Stay updated on these issues, and as always, manage your risks carefully. Best of luck with your trading today! ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21920 / 21870 / 21790 / 21720 -Sell: 22035 / 22075 / 22135 / 22230 Crude Oil - Range-bound Market -Buy: 75.10 / 74.70 / 74.30 / 73.60 -Sell: 75.70 / 76.20 / 76.75 / 77.10 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2759 / 2754 / 2748 / 2738 -Sell: 2771 / 2778 / 2783 / 2794 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed higher, combining two days of movement into one candle. As anticipated, it rose during the pre-market session but declined during the main session. The daily chart formed a bullish candle, confirming yesterday's buy signal. The bullish trend on the daily chart is likely to continue, but with the current significant gap between the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, a pullback followed by renewed buying pressure is expected. It is essential to focus on dip-buying rather than chasing prices. However, keep in mind that the weekly chart still shows a sell signal, and both the MACD and signal line on the daily chart remain below the zero line, indicating the possibility of a reversal to a bearish wave at any time. On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is intact, and the upward trend continues. However, there is no significant improvement in market liquidity. A strong bullish candle that breaks the box range is needed, but such a move has not yet materialized. Therefore, pre-market sessions may show mixed movements. Selling at resistance levels for box-range trading is advisable. Be mindful of potential volatility due to executive orders from President Trump, which could lead to sharp price swings. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, finding support at the $75 level. As mentioned previously, the $74–$75 range aligns with the 5-day moving average on the weekly chart and serves as a critical support zone, making it a favorable area for dip-buying. With a 400-tick drop from the $79 high and no dead cross between the MACD and signal line on the daily chart, there is a high probability that oil will rebound as the MACD supports the signal line. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have dipped below the zero line, which could accelerate selling momentum. However, the 60-period moving average on the 240-minute chart continues to slope upward, suggesting that selling should be avoided and buying at key support levels is a better approach. GOLD Gold closed higher, leaving a lower wick near key support levels. On the weekly chart, resistance remains overhead, but the daily chart indicates that the trend could continue upward, making dip-buying a favorable strategy. The MACD and signal line on the daily chart remain in an upward trajectory, and a breakout above the 2760 resistance level could open the way to 2780. On shorter timeframes, consolidation followed by a golden cross of the MACD and signal line is evident, while the 240-minute chart has also confirmed a golden cross. Although further upside is likely, the significant divergence between the MACD and its previous peaks on the 240-minute chart increases the probability of divergence after a substantial rally. Therefore, refrain from chasing prices after a sharp rise and instead focus on buying dips near key support levels while monitoring the breakout above 2760. Market volatility is intensifying due to President Trump’s remarks. Similar patterns were observed during his first term, as his statements, often made via social media, caused significant fluctuations in the futures markets. Ensure proper stop-loss levels and manage risks carefully in this volatile environment. ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21770 / 21710 / 21630 / 21590 / 21530 -Sell: 21880 / 21940 / 22040 / 22110 Crude Oil - Bullish Market -Buy: 75.10 / 74.60 / 73.60 / 73.00 -Sell: 76.30 / 76.70 / 77.10 / 77.50 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2751 / 2743 / 2738 / 2731 -Sell: 2767 / 2777 / 2782 / 2787 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
WTI tests resistance after bouncing from $75"We will drill, baby, drill" That's what Donald Trump said yesterday and is what makes me think oil is headed lower in longer-term outlook, or at best upside should be limited in long-term. In short-term a lot can happen of course, but right now the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside. WTI has been trending lower in the last few days and broken some important support levels. These levels have turned into resistance. For example: $77.00. Earlier, prices dipped to test the first major support area around 75.00, and it bounced from there. But thanks to Trump's bearish oil policy, we could see the selling resume. At the time of writing, WTI was testing another broken support level around the 75.80 to 76.05 area. Will we see the sellers return here? By Fawad Razaqada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed early due to the U.S. market holiday, and yesterday’s and today’s daily candles will merge into one. As anticipated, the U.S. market showed an upward trend, but it is likely to exhibit sideways or downward movement during the pre-market and regular trading sessions today. While the daily chart has generated a buy signal, confirmation will only occur if today’s candle closes as a bullish one. With significant resistance levels overhead, the market needs a strong bullish candle to widen the gap between the MACD and signal line. Failure to generate such a rally may lead to repeated resistance at the upper levels and increase the likelihood of a downturn. On the 240-minute chart, no sell signal has been generated yet, but the market appears to be absorbing overhead supply. If a MACD dead cross emerges, the buy signal on the daily chart may fade, potentially reversing the trend to bearish. Avoid chasing prices and refer to yesterday’s detailed pre-market analysis for further context. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, correcting down to the 10-day moving average. After a brief consolidation at the $76 support, it declined further. The $74–$75 range serves as a critical support level and aligns with the 5-day moving average on the weekly chart. Buying on dips within this range is favorable. However, it is advisable to enter at lower levels, as rebound risks make shorting less viable. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is falling towards the zero line, steepening its angle against the signal line. Even if oil rebounds from key support levels, it may face further selling pressure, as a MACD golden cross appears unlikely. Since yesterday’s expected downtrend materialized, today’s strategy should focus on cautious dip-buying at lower levels. GOLD Gold closed lower, finding support near the 5-day moving average as anticipated in yesterday’s analysis. The strong pullback to the 5-day moving average provides a reasonable entry point for buying on dips. However, the weekly chart indicates potential for further downside, suggesting short-term positions to manage risk effectively. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has emerged as a head-and-shoulders pattern broke its neckline. A further drop below 2730 could lead to additional downside toward the 2718 support level, where dip-buying may be considered. The MACD and signal line remain significantly below the zero line on the 240-minute chart, increasing the likelihood of a rebound at key support levels. Avoid aggressive short-selling and note that the broader trend remains bullish, as gold's daily chart exhibits strong buying momentum. Focus on buying near major support levels during pullbacks for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Manage your risk carefully and best of luck with your trades today. ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21660 / 21620 / 21570 / 21510 / 21480 / 21350 -Sell: 21780 / 21880 / 21940 / 22005 Crude Oil - Bullish Market -Buy: 75.70 / 74.95 / 74.50 -Sell: 77.50 / 77.85 / 78.25 / 78.65 / 79.10 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2726 / 2716 / 2708 / 2700 -Sell: 2738 / 2747 / 2753 / 2758 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Futureguard
Weekly and Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ closed higher, breaking above the upper trendline resistance on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the sell signal is still active, and the MACD has yet to cross above the signal line. Therefore, even if the market rises early this week, it could potentially retreat again. This underscores the need to avoid chasing highs. On the daily chart, a buy signal was generated with today’s candle, but it is not confirmed by yesterday’s action. If today’s session ends with a bearish candle, the buy signal could disappear. For a sustained upward move, today must close with a bullish candle and create a clear buy signal. Furthermore, for this signal to be meaningful, the signal line must move above the zero line, with a wider divergence between the MACD and the signal line driven by additional gains. On the 240-minute chart, a long bullish candle has created a potential third wave up. Breaking through the upper trendline is significant, but whether this uptrend will continue remains uncertain. Additionally, with U.S. markets closed today for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, today's and tomorrow’s daily candles will be combined. Expect sideways movement with a bullish tilt today, with the main market session tomorrow likely determining the direction. Focus on buying on dips while avoiding chasing highs. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower, forming an upper wick on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the price is significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, suggesting that this week could see consolidation or a pullback from the $79 resistance level. On the daily chart, crude has fallen below the 5-day moving average, now trading within a range between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The $74–$75 range represents an attractive buy zone during a pullback. This area aligns with the weekly 5-day moving average, making it a critical level to watch. Around $76, where the 10-day moving average lies, significant support exists on intraday charts. Observing whether this level holds on the first test is crucial. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains significantly above the zero line, favoring continued buying on dips. The first key support is around $76, and the second is in the $74–$75 range, where the MACD could attempt another bullish crossover. Be mindful of reduced trading volumes due to the U.S. market holiday and focus on range-bound strategies. GOLD Gold faced resistance near the 2760 level, closing with a doji candle. On the weekly chart, the MACD is diverging from the signal line, suggesting that further upside may face resistance around the 2785 level. If the MACD on the weekly chart fails to form a golden cross, a pullback may occur. On the daily chart, the strong buy trend remains intact, favoring a buy-focused strategy. However, on the 240-minute chart, a potential dead cross could signal short-term corrections. With U.S. markets closed today and tomorrow, gold could dip to the 5-day moving average, creating buying opportunities during pullbacks. For today, short-term selling at highs with a focus on key support levels for buying on dips is recommended. Sideways movement during pre-market hours may continue, with tomorrow’s main session likely setting the next direction. Stick to box-range trading and take advantage of key opportunities if prices reach critical levels. With U.S. markets closed on Monday, reduced trading volumes make box-range trading strategies more effective. Use this time to prepare for potential opportunities at key levels. Stay diligent with risk management, and have a successful trading week ahead. ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21510 / 21480 / 21350 / 21310 / 21270 -Sell: 21650 / 21740 / 21780 / 21880 Crude Oil - Bullish Market -Buy: 76.90 / 76.30 / 75.70 / 74.95 -Sell: 77.80 / 78.25 / 78.60 / 79.00 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2730 / 2723 / 2719 / 2715 -Sell: 2747 / 2753 / 2758 / 2762 / 2777 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ NASDAQ closed lower, facing resistance near the 20-day moving average. It struggled at the midpoint of the long bearish candle formed on January 7 (21570), which coincides with the upper trendline resistance originating from the December 16, 2023 high (22450). The market's direction—whether it breaks above the upper trendline resistance around 21500 or reverts to the center of the downtrend—remains to be seen. On the weekly chart, a sell signal has been triggered. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the MACD and signal line suggests a higher likelihood of continued downside. However, after consolidating around the center of Wednesday's large bullish candle, the market may trade sideways for a few days before determining its next direction. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line are above the zero line. After consolidating in a box range, the market may see a bullish third wave supported by the MACD holding above the signal line. Alternatively, a dead cross could form, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. For today, a range-bound strategy focusing on selling at highs and buying at lows is appropriate. Note that Fridays can often bring choppy price action. CRUDE OIL Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the upper monthly boundary. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the price and moving averages increases the risk of pursuing long positions at higher levels. If oil breaks below the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average or the $74–$75 range could act as support. A pullback to these levels would provide an opportunity for buying on dips. The recent month-long rally has caused the MACD and signal line to diverge significantly above the zero line, supporting a buy-on-dip strategy during corrections. However, as mentioned previously, a sell signal has appeared on the 240-minute chart, along with MACD divergence, suggesting a higher probability of additional downside. The recent $79 rally could represent the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder acting as resistance upon a rebound. Below $76, strong support exists, so box-range trading near critical levels is recommended. GOLD Gold closed higher, supported by declining Treasury yields. The daily chart confirms a fully established uptrend, making it advantageous to focus on buying during pullbacks. Treasury yields, which have been inversely correlated with gold, are also showing sell signals, suggesting further downside in yields and strength in gold. If gold breaks above the 2755 level, it could test the weekly chart resistance at 2788. However, resistance at this level may prevent the weekly MACD from forming a golden cross, leading to a consolidation phase over the next few weeks. On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum suggests a bullish third wave that could replicate the prior move from 2625 to 2735. With the clear daily trend and one-way price action, this is a favorable period for swing trading to maximize profits. Traders should consider this an opportunity to grow their accounts. This week included major events like the CPI report. Next Monday, Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as U.S. President. Given past market volatility during Trump's presidency, expect heightened price swings ahead. Always adhere to stop-loss levels and manage risks diligently. Wrap up the week well, and best of luck in your trading endeavors. ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21150 / 21090 / 21020 / 20940 -Sell: 21330 / 21370 / 21420 / 21490 Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures) -Buy: 77.50 / 77.00 / 76.20 / 75.70 / 74.90 -Sell: 78.55 / 79.00 / 79.35 / 80.30 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2738 / 2729 / 2722 / 2715 / 2700 -Sell: 2757 / 2765 / 2772 / 2780 / 2788 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ The NASDAQ closed higher, digesting the release of the CPI data. On the weekly chart, it faced resistance at the 5-week moving average, forming an upper wick. After a downtrend early this week, the market rebounded significantly. On the daily chart, the index rose to around the 20-day moving average but has yet to see the MACD cross above the signal line, making it premature to confirm a buying signal. Even if the uptrend continues, it would be prudent to wait for a golden cross in the MACD before committing to a buy position. Moreover, there is significant resistance from prior supply zones, making a sell strategy around higher levels valid. On the 240-minute chart, as mentioned previously, a failed dead cross led to a rebound, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The MACD is trending upwards and diverging from the signal line. However, since the signal line is still below the zero line, a sideways consolidation phase may be necessary before a sustained move higher. Today, it is advisable to focus on range-bound trading within a box, managing risks carefully with sell strategies at higher levels. OIL Crude oil closed higher as it absorbed inventory data and the pipeline shutdown news. On the daily chart, it found support at the 5-day moving average and broke strongly above $78 (March futures), the upper boundary of the monthly chart. However, the sharp upward move has created significant gaps between the moving averages, suggesting the potential for a corrective phase today. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal has triggered a sharp rise, but the MACD has not yet surpassed its previous high. A failure to rally further could create bearish divergence. A significant correction and support at previous resistance levels, such as the $74–$75 range, could present a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, profit-taking may dominate as the market digests the recent rally. A box range approach with buy strategies on dips and sell strategies at higher levels is recommended. GOLD Gold closed higher after digesting the CPI data. On the daily chart, both the MACD and the signal line have moved above the zero line, signaling a confirmed buy trend. Further upside is expected, as it has also broken above the resistance line of a triangular consolidation pattern. A buy-focused strategy remains valid. On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal preceded continued gains. Should the MACD and signal line diverge further, this would increase confidence in the uptrend. Even if gold consolidates instead of continuing to rally, the signal line above the zero line indicates a neutral-to-positive outlook. Considering that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is showing signs of peaking and pulling back, gold’s strong upward trend is worth monitoring closely. As numerous data releases are expected today, stay cautious and trade wisely. ■Trading Strategies for Today NASDAQ - Range-bound Market -Buy: 21325 / 21270 / 21190 / 21140 -Sell: 21440 / 21500 / 21550 / 21590 Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures) -Buy: 78.10 / 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.30 -Sell: 79.70 / 80.10 / 80.80 / 81.30 Gold - Bullish Market -Buy: 2717 / 2709 / 2700 / 2696 / 2690 -Sell: 2726 / 2732 / 2738 / 2745 / 2754 These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks. If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard