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Crudeoilforecast

Oil prices have spiked more than 10%|Next rally can hit $75.24On 13 Sep 19, Market closed on $54.87 but Oil prices have spiked after a destructive attack on the Saudi Arabian oil production on weekend shocked markets and produced shortage in global supply of crude for some time. Now we can see the price spiked more than 10% in a day after market opens and hits the 50SMA even the 100SMA on week chart. At this point we also have the price resistance level and the pennant's resistance at $60.63 which is not broken since May 2019, if this resistance level would be broken then the price action will take no time to reach the 2nd resistance at $75.24 where we also have tail of the pennant and in case of breaking out $75.24 resistance level the price action can hit the strong resistance at $107.45. If we see the technical indicators then can be clearly observed that the all of a sudden the chop zone is turned strong bullish and even MACD has given strong bullish signals including bull cross. For me after breakout the 1st resistance and if all indicators would be remained bullish even after price correction would be ideal for buying. Market fundamentals + technical analysis are very strong in favor of bullish move. Next target should be : $75.24. Regards, Atif Akbar (moon333)
TVC:USOILLong
by moon333
5
Crude Oil Forecast: China to tax U.S OilWe have reached our near term target level 53.20. Lack of Global Oil demand Slowing down global economies And now China's Plan to tax US Oil starting September 1. As I mentioned in my previous Oil report, China- Iran Oil Trade Plan could be validated soon. After the false breakout of the triangle, we see WTI retesting the triangle. WTI needs to make Daily Closing below 53.13 to continue its bearish move. Under the current fundamental conditions, I expect the decline in oil prices to continue. As shown in the chart, Daily Closing below $ 50 will accelerate the downward trend in prices. Below 50$, Oil Prices may find medium-term support at 46.80.
TVC:USOILShort
by chartreader_pro
Crude Oil Forecast: How deep Oil Prices may fall?The shortened version of our Crude Oil Forecast: We have started to sell Crude Oil at 65 $ and reached our target at 52.80 $. What is next? What were the reasons for the sell-off? What is driving the market? 1. The supply and demand balance strongly indicates that oversupply will last for some time to come. 2. Global Growth concerns. I have mentioned several times that WTO and IMF reduced their global growth projections. Parallel to this, both IEA, WTO and OPEC lowered their global oil demand estimates. 3. Trade Wars. 4. OPEC+ supply cut, Venezuela and Iran Sanctions did not help Crude Oil prices to enter into a bullish market. ( Closing above 68 $ ). Note the sanction waivers. Now Crude Oil prices have reached a critical level. We have to scenarios ahead. OPEC is to maintain cuts or face a world of much lower crude prices ( Then comes a war between OPEC and US Drilling Companies with 42 $ production cost).OPEC postponed their meeting for the supply decision. OPEC may wait for “right on time” action. ( 40 $ – 45 $ per barrel ) 5.Brent/ WTI spread may widen intermediate term. As I have been writing for three months, Crude oil is fundamentally and technically bearish. Supply is surpassing demand and stocks are rising at a time when they should be falling. Please pay attention to The US Commodity Index. The double top pattern’s completed and the pattern suggests further fall. Daily Chart: Potential Golden Cut of MAs indicates a bearish move intermediate term. A Bullish Bat Pattern and oversold RSI indicate a technical correction towards 57 $ near term. Potential pullbacks can be used as a selling opportunity. On the downside 51.50 ( Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest bullish move ) and 50.00 $ (psychological level) will be our main focus. On the upside, 56.25, 58.10 are the potential pullback levels to be used for selling opportunity. Intraday trade opportunity will be published later for the members.
TVC:USOILShort
by chartreader_pro
Crudeoil Short IntradayAfter hitting the lows yesterday, my opinion is that crude oil will once again hit 64 at point B before going down to C before a last leg up into 64 at point D and then back down again. You may take C and D trades, which is an opportunity for buy & short if B plays out. Please not that targets aren't always going to be on point, it may go slight higher or slightly lower and this is an opinion of what i think the market might do. TPs may very well extend much more lower than my targets but those are my targets. DISCLAIMER Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
FX:USOILShort
by Quinkong
Short oil Oil has now reached the 0.618 fibonacci line although it has gone past it slightly, which is ok. In my opinion, it hasn't reached a resistance line yet which means this has the potential for more further upside around 67-68 but of course it could just go down from here. Oil can go straight down from here to 60.70 before going back up to 63.22 and then another down to 58.04. This is of course just my humble opinion which could be wrong, so please trade safely at your own risk. Disclaimer This chart is published as an opinion based chart only.
FX:USOILShort
by Quinkong
Crude Oil Weekly Report: How long will Oil rally last?U.S. WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed the week higher on Friday. Which fundamentals drove Crude Oil prices higher this week? Deeper-than-expected OPEC-led production cuts : Saudi Arabia is delivering on the cuts it pledged, and I have no doubt they’ll deliver on pledges to do more. As I mentioned in my previous articles the reason of the big drop on Oil Prices was a production boost from OPEC and an equity sell-off that pushed oil down during the fourth quarter, and now as both of those elements are in reverse prices are going up. Trade Deal Optimism : Press reports suggest that the U.S. and China are making progress on trade negotiations, and President Trump has indicated he would be willing to let the talks continue past the March 1 deadline if progress was significant. Trump is expected to meet with China’s vice premier and top trade negotiator on Friday. There are still thorny issues that will be difficult to solve, but markets are welcoming the potential breakthrough in trade talks. Meanwhile, the EIA report showed that Crude Oil Inventories stocks rose three weeks in a row. Simply saying, The U.S production is likely to limit the gains for WTI in the near future. WTI vs BRENT The spread between Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil has risen from a low of $6.80 on January 31 to a high of nearly $10.00 ( Brent Crude Oil ended the week at 66.90). This is the result of a combination of the OPEC-led production cuts and the sanctions against Venezuelan exports, which are supportive for Brent crude oil, and the rising U.S. production, which is helping to limit gains for WTI crude oil. Baltic Dry Index: You can see view the BDI Chart on our website. BDI rose a bit in February but it is still not promising for Global Economic Activity. Simply saying: Less economic activity, less Oil demand. IEA is not so bullish: According to the International Energy Agency, the global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), even with the group’s production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Furthermore, the IEA said it expected global oil demand this year to grow by 1.4 million bpd, while non-OPEC supply will grow by 1.8 million bpd. This doesn’t bode well for the long-term crude oil bulls. Crude Oil Weekly Chart: Fundamentally, there is no reason for Crude Oil prices to be traded above $ 62.50 for the time being. Its retracement zone at $59.38 to $62.50 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to show up on a test of this zone On the other side, the potential downside move would be limited as well. OPEC + would not let the Oil Prices stay below $ 50. Simply saying, potential pullbacks towards $ 50 can be used as a buying opportunity. Near Term Trade Opportunity: RSI Divergence H4 Chart We will look for a short opportunity if the price breaks out the trendline. The first target of the Bears will be 56.25. The breakout of 56.25 would lead the prices 55.75 and 54.70. Those levels can be used as buying opportunities.
TVC:USOILShort
by chartreader_pro
2
CRUDE Oil Forecast: Bulls control the marketPullbacks are buying opportunities Fundamentals: Bullish: OPEC + solid cuts – Latest Announcement from Russia: “We won’t fight with US oil producers”. That means: They will not let the prices go down to stop US drilling activities. Venezuela Turmoil Optimism in US-China Trade Talks. Now we have a new bullish factor: Weakening USD. Simply saying: Historically, weak dollar sends the oil prices higher. Below is the DXY vs WTI correlation chart. Bearish: Global Growth Concerns 8M Barrels increase in stocks Have a nice trading week!
TVC:USOILLong
by chartreader_pro
Crude Oil Forecast and Technical Analysis Week of Jan 14-19We have entered two short trades in Crude Oil and they both reached the targets. - See attached setups - As I have mentioned in the channel, the bearish rally was triggered by weekend profit taking purposes. However, there are still concerns over rising U.S. production, and key issues with China that have to be resolved despite favorable trade talks earlier in the week. The market is underpinned by the OPEC-led production cuts. Fundamentals which will support the Bullish Move OPEC and Russia began reducing output by 1.2 million barrels per day on January 1. If they maintain their discipline, this move should trim the global supply glut and stabilize prices. The US and China ended three-days of constructive trade talks which were productive enough to lead to the scheduling of further negotiations later this month. This news has created enough optimism to drive short-sellers out of the market. Positive developments on the trade talks will accelerate the bullish move. Fundamentals which will support the Bearish Move Concerns over the Global Growth – especially China – could add weight on the price. Most analysts have downgraded their global economic growth forecasts below 3 % for 2019. Increasing U.S. production, which is expected to climb above 12 million bpd this month (Last two week’s EIA Data support this concern), the possibility OPEC and its allies will lose their discipline and US-China trade relations. Technical Overview and Key Levels: WTI Crude Oil prices rejected EMA 50 / Daily Resistance and pulled back. Crude Oil ended week at 51.59 in the upper Bollinger Band / H4 Chart. The price is well above EMA 50 and EMA 100 / H4 Chart. Bullish move will continue as long as the WTI prices holds above 51.17. The midterm bearish scenario would be triggered at the breakout of 51.17. As seen on the H4 Chart, we may see the prices testing the broken trend line where EMA 50/EMA 100 resides at 49.40-49.20. A potential retest of this level can be used as buying opportunity. As seen on the below chart, a potential Bullish Shark Pattern formation can be used as long opportunity. – I will publish the details of the pattern for the members. We will try to use pullbacks as a buying opportunity and our target will be 54.80. Have a nive trading week.
TVC:USOILLong
by chartreader_pro
Crude Oil Completed Double Bottom Bullish Move TriggeredWe have published a detailed forecast and technical analysis yesterday. - See Attached - After testing 52.70 Crude Oil prices dropped 2 USD triggered by the EIA Inventories Data. As we have mentioned before 50.20 was a strong support. The double Bottom formation has been completed. Crude Oil broke the 52.70. The target of the formation is 55.20. 53.13, 54.91, 54.69 will be the first three targets of the Crude Bulls. Daily Closings above 54.59 will be the confirmation of the trend reversal from Bearish to Bullish.
TVC:USOILLong
by chartreader_pro
CRUDE OIL Forecast: Base formation completed ?The reasons for the sell-off on Crude Oil prices: Oversupply concerns Global growth concerns Trade wars and risk off concerns Global Demand: 95 Million Barrel Global Supply: Over 105 Million Barrel What does the market expect from OPEC meeting? The general expectation at the meeting on December 6 is that the Saudis and Russia agree on a cut of between 500,000 and 1.4 million barrels per day. Technically: Monthly Chart : Crude Oil prices tested the Ichimoku Cloud base Senku Span A and recovered. 50.00 USD is the psychological support level for the prices. Weekly Chart: the price s below the lower Bollinger Band indicating the oversold market. Daily Chart: The breakout of the rising trend line and the recovery trend after hard sales are noteworthy. The resistance of 51.48 USD is critical, and the closing above this level may indicate a base formation at 49 USD. What can be done: Long Term Traders ( Investors ) Buy : at closing 51.48 Stop: Below: 49.00 Target 1: 52.90 Target 2: 53.40 Target 3: 54.60 Target 4: 56.25 Good Luck
TVC:USOILLong
by chartreader_pro
2
Crude Oil Forecast: Focus On OPEC Meeting Supply Cut rumours helping Crude Oil’s recovery. -See Attached Forecast.- Another Supply Cut signal came from the Russian side. Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, commenting on the OPEC output policy. Key Points: Need to make a balanced decision on OPEC production. There has been no decision yet. Russia is planning to sign an agreement on oil output with OPEC. But this will be discussed in next month’s meeting. Technically: The overall picture is still bearish. Crude Oil printed a flag pattern. It is trading below EMA 50 on H4 Chart which resides at 58.20. We need to see the price breaking above EMA 50 in order to talk about a midterm trend reversal. However, it is likely to test EMA 50 at 58.20. Crude Oil prices are likely to trade sideways until the OPEC + meeting of December. A bearish breakout of the flag pattern would lead to prices towards 52.00 – 50.00 U
TVC:USOIL
by chartreader_pro
1
Crude Oil Technical Overview: Falling Wedge BreakoutCrude Oil prices ended the week at 68.50 after testing 64.30 the MA 200 support of the daily charts. Bulls were ready at the main support. After three weeks decline, Crude ended the week with the gains.Dollar’s weakness is helping the Crude Oil prices to rise. On the smaller chart timeframes, Crude Oil ended the week above the SMA 200 which is a good news for the Crude Bulls. As seen on the H4 chart, price broke out the falling wedge – bullish continuation pattern – at 67.10. A bearish harmonic XABCD pattern – Total – completed at 69.26 and Crude Oil prices tested 68.25 Fibonacci 23.6 of the CD. If the price breaks below 68.25, 67.90 and 67.50 can be tested. Those levels can be used as buying opportunities targeting 69.50 and 70.25. Break and close above 70.25 will carry the price 71.50 and 73.30.
TVC:USOILLong
by chartreader_pro
Crude Oil Forecast And Technical Analysis 06-27-2018Total supply of 1 million barrels from Saudi Arabia and Russia in the upcoming period could cover only the half of the 2.43 million barrels/day supply cut of Iran (if all states conform to the US) . In the current situation of Iran’s daily oil exports of 620 thousand barrels China, 560 thousand barrels of the EU, 470 thousand barrels of India, 400 thousand barrels of South Korea, 230 thousand barrels of Turkey and 140 K to Japan.. Here, 1.8 million barrels of petroleum may be withdrawn from daily world production when it is thought that China is the strongest candidate to comply with the US call. This figure cannot be easily covered by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which can increase capacity. We may see further increase in the Oil Prices. The price action of the Crude confirms us the same. As we have written in our latest analysis, Crude opened the week with a gap, but the Bulls jumped into the arena. Technically: We see the golden cross in the weekly charts. This indicates a new bullish wave. The scene is almost the same in the H4 Chart timeframe. EMA 50,100 and 200 formed Golden Cross. US Crude Oil CLc1 is trading at 70.70 – Spot Forex 70.31 – as of writing. This is the Fibonacci 78.6% of the latest decline. An H4 closing above 70.85 – Spot Forex 70.40 – might carry the prices CLc1 71.70 and 72.60 of the latest highs. Possible pullbacks can be used as buying opportunities. Possible pullback levels to use as buying opportunities are 70.30 and 69.40. We can not talk about a short term trend reversal as long as the price holds above 69.40. We will publish our trade idea for premium members separately.
TVC:USOILLong
by chartreader_pro