Crudeoilforecast
US OIL stuck In a trendline resistance. Can it break out? The crude oil price has been on a steady climb this week, with two consecutive increases since the beginning. Today American market has not opened yet, but its possible prices will continue climbing even more tomorrow if they haven't already. But the crude price stuck below the trendline resistance nearly $75.30/barrel.
The rise in crude goods is likely due to increased demand out east caused by cold weather and holiday celebrations—the recent production cuts between OPEC members like Saudi Arabia who want lower gas prices.
At the same time, other countries need higher profits now instead of later when there might be fewer buyers because everyone needs fuel at some point or another-especially during winter months which require lots of road salt.
From the current crude price, $75.30 is the total resistance area. Breaking above $75 will open the door for $85/barrel.
On the other hand, as the market holds below the trendline resistance level, it may also correct a little bit to the downside. But fundamentally, I don't think it will drop a lot. It probably won't fall but a lot, but as a correction, it can test moreover $68.
Note: Don't go short on Oil as long as fundamental factors support be a higher price, at least during this month.
Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $82.95
🟢 Take Profit: $79.49 (2.22)
⛔ Stop Loss: $84.51
Reasoning:
1) Yesterday's trades went as planned, unfortunately, I wasn't behind my desk to assess the volume and take them, but If you did, good for you. We are approaching the middle trendline, so I expect a small retracement after that point.
2) I am also expecting a divergence to form somewhere around the entry level.
3) Stop Loss is pretty loose since I want to give the trade some space to breathe With that being said, bear in mind the spread and the weekend fees, which may eat up your profits.
Oil Long SetupOIL Long Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $80.60
🟢 Take Profit: $82.84 (2.8R)
⛔ Stop Loss: $79.80
Reasoning:
1) Apparently the two trades from yesterday failed and we went much lower than expected. The price is currently resting on the lower trendline of the ascending channel, so I am expecting a slight move up.
2) Target is set at the middle trendline in the ascending channel
Oil Long SetupOil Long Setup - 3 Levels
🔵 Entry Level: $82.89
🟢 Take Profit: $85.29 (2.26)
⛔ Stop Loss: $81.83
🔵 Entry Level: $81.21
🟢 Take Profit: $84.35 (3.78)
⛔ Stop Loss: $80.38
🔵 Entry Level: $80.31
🟢 Take Profit: $82.83 (3.27)
⛔ Stop Loss: $79.54
Reasons:
1) I've marked the three levels of interest that I have for opening long orders. I will be monitoring each one BEFORE opening a trade, so I don't have them set as limit orders yet.
2) For Level 1 I would like to see a double bottom forming. If it doesn't I am inclined to set a limit for Level 2.
3) I am certainly setting a limit order for Level 3 if I see the other two levels fail, since that diagonal trend line in the ascending channel so far has been well respected. If it doesn't hold up, I will be looking for opening shorts only.
Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $84.72
🟢 Take Profit: $80.03 (3.58R)
⛔ Stop Loss: $86.03
Reasons:
- I'm expecting the price to bounce off the first level (marked for a long position) and continue trending up until it reaches the upper trendline again.
- So far the price has been respecting this ascending channel
- I am not taking the long position, but I've marked it so that I have more confidence in my short if the price does behave in the above-described way