Monday: Crude Oil - Week 19I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Crudeoillong
Oil Long SetupOil Long Setup (refer to the trade marked with "2")
🔵 Entry: $62.24
🟢 TP & RR: $64.55 (2.69)
⛔ Stop Loss: $61.38
Trade Reasons:
✔️ Support Level
📝 A very basic setup relying on a support bounce. I still believe that we need to reach the 1.618 level before price reverts (the setup posted yesterday and marked with "1"). In the meantime I want to take advantage of the move up (if I even get a fill), but my position will be much smaller than usual due to the last trading day of the month.
Oil Long PositionOil Long Position
🔵 Entry: $62.19
🟢 TP & RR: $63.55 (2.62)
⛔ Stop Loss: $61.67
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
✔️ Resistance flipped to support
✔️ Fairly strong volume upwards
📝 I am expecting price to consolidate around the entry level and then continue trending up. Even if this long fails, I certainly don't feel comfortable shorting the trend on a move upwards (or at least until I see some divergence).
Crude Oil Long SetupOil Long Setup
Entry: $53.68
TP & RR: $57.65
Stop Loss: $52.57
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Contrary to most expectations that Oil was overpriced, it continues to trend up. I won't open a long order at the current level, nor would I short obvious strength. However, if price retraces back to previous resistance, which is now support, I am more than happy to buy. I believe we are now in a channel and we are yet to see how we go through the awaited $55-$56 level.
With that being said, we may not get filled at all. Should this be the case, we will be targeting the upper channel with a short order.
Oil Trending Up - Long PositionOil Buy Order
Entry: $52.61
TP & RR: $53.79 (3.37)
Stop Loss: $52.26
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Price is breaking through the upper trendline and unless this is a fakeout I expect it to continue going up until the recent highest high and maybe up until the dotted resistance around $54-$55. The market Flow indicator is showing momentum up and I hate to open a position against it, so I am definitely not shorting anywhere around the current level or unless the indicator shows otherwise.
The only thing I may suggest is for you to change the SL if you are afraid you might get stopped. I have the tendency to place it quite far from the entry, but this time I am taking a bit of a risk. It's your call here.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, BULLISH VIEW. Since the beginning of January there has been a strong bullish momentum, reaching almost a price of 54.00.
Looking at the 1h Chart we can see how a double top has formed and buyers failed to break above previous high. Market is currently in a correction phase, a good buy opportunity can be at the retest of support level: 51.50 otherwise if the price manages to get below support i would wait and see if the 4h/1D bullish trend line gets respected and look for the formation of new higher highs and higher lows to enter for a buy.
Safe sells are set only if the strong bullish trend line breaks.