Crudeoilshort
WTI Crude oil trade analysis
Oil prices are falling due to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Both headline and core inflation data were stagnant, suggesting that U.S. inflation is not accelerating or declining rapidly, while inflation is falling in Europe and other major regions. The outlook for oil in 2024 is bleak as the supply glut is too large to be replenished in the short term.
Judging from the daily chart of crude oil, since the second rebound failed in late October, oil prices have continued to fall, eventually forming a downward trend. Oil prices have hit August lows of 77.80. Oil prices showed a slight fluctuation pattern around the low point, forming a flag-shaped relay pattern. Oil prices managed to break below the lower edge of the flag pattern and followed the trend downward towards the flagpole. In the medium term, oil prices are expected to rebound. to around 65.
WTI international trade analysis
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell in all areas, and the dollar plummeted amid expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle would stop. Crude oil prices rose on the back of that reversal and a weaker U.S. dollar that triggered a rise in black fuel prices.
Looking at the daily chart of crude oil, oil prices have continued to fall since the second rebound failed in late October, and eventually the trend formed a downward trend. Oil prices have hit the August low of 77.80. At present, short sellers are showing strong performance. Pay attention to whether there will be a clear rebound in this week's period. If the mid-term trend of crude oil continues to be weak, the mid-term trend of crude oil will continue to decline towards 70.
The short-term (1H) crude oil trend fluctuated and continued to be blocked near 80, forming a repetitive rhythmic market with alternating main forces. The U.S. dollar plummeted across the board last night. Compared with precious metals, the trend of crude oil is relatively weak. It still needs further momentum to accumulate for a full-scale rise. It is expected that crude oil will seek support around 77.30 after a slight fall during the day and rebound upward.
Directional view on CrudeoilmMCX:CRUDEOILM1! trading near resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement level. may come downwards if made a reversal successfully between 59010-5880.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This expressed opinion/view/analysis isn't a trade/investment advice/recommendation.
--SEBI unregistered independent trader/analyst.
Crude Oil Continues to Gain ProfitsCrude oil fell sharply at the beginning of last week and fell to 63.6. The main reason for this abnormal phenomenon is that the demand for crude oil was affected by the economic recession. Based on the previous news, the main reason for the decline of US oil may be related to the recent news. Too light. After OPEC announced its production cut plan in early April, the expectations of the market bulls did not receive further support from the news. Last Friday, U.S. oil also rebounded and returned to above 70. Although technically it is expected to stop falling and rebound, the daily average system has crossed downwards, and the medium-term bearish trend has been strengthened. Therefore, it will be relatively difficult for U.S. oil to rebound technically in the future , If you want to rebound strongly, you must have the support of fundamentals, such as OPEC's further implementation of the production reduction plan.
Combined with the trend of the daily line and the hourly chart, U.S. oil may choose to fluctuate strongly within the range at the beginning of the week. The lower part will first focus on the 70-line competition before testing. If it does not break through 70 at the beginning of the week, the tone will be stronger during the week. 72, and around 73 on the 10-day line, and even fell below 74 last week. But this also requires the support of favorable fundamentals. If the fundamentals do not come out with good news for a long time, then the bulls' expectations will fail, and the market may return to a weak state in advance.
In terms of operation, this week, U.S. oil is conservative or chooses to wait and see. If you are aggressive, you can conduct short-term low-long and high-altitude operations around the 70-73 range.
So let’s get down to business, every day we push real-time current price orders to prove our strength. At present, the daily operating profit is increasing. I believe that friends who come from experience have discerning eyes. After a period of communication and experience, as well as the verification of the market, I believe that the accuracy of the list can conquer all doubts and ideas. Contact me for free experience
Detailed Trading Signal Sharing of Crude Oil on MondayIn terms of crude oil, the daily line rebounded on Friday, and the previous low of 64.1 had strong first-line support, forming a double-bottom pattern. Crude oil on Monday focuses on the position above 70.0, with a stop loss of 69.2, and the target is above 72.6-73.0; sell backhand empty orders near the pressure line of 73.8 above!
Has crude oil stopped its decline?Can we buy crude oil?Because of market concerns about the recession, the demand for crude oil has been hit to a large extent. Then the acceptable price of crude oil in the cycle of slow economic development is in the 70-65 area. People familiar with the crude oil market must know that crude oil basically fluctuated in the 70-82 area in the early stage. Judging from this, crude oil still has room to continue to fall.
Judging from the current crude oil trend structure, crude oil has fallen sharply and broken below the flag-shaped consolidation structure, and the bearish trend is obvious. Although the current downward trend has paused, there is no signal to stop the decline completely, and the rebound here is extremely weak, so the pause here may be to build a downward relay structure.
In addition, in the ultra-short-term structure, crude oil has repeatedly tested the support near 74 without breaking below, so in the case of a short-term plunge in crude oil, there is a need for technical upward repair.And there is 50% support for Fibonacci below the short-term, so crude oil may also use this to launch a small-level rebound.Therefore, pay special attention to the defensive situation near 74 in the short term.
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After the oil is completed to fill the gap,can we go long on oilBecause of the impact of the banking crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling issue, the risk that the economy may fall into recession has been exacerbated, and U.S. data show that consumer confidence is insufficient, which is a very big blow to the demand for crude oil, causing crude oil to plummet in the short term and completely make up for the technical gap. Can crude oil be bought with confidence?
In fact, according to the structure of crude oil, crude oil fell sharply and fell below the flag finishing structure, which laid the foundation for the short trend of crude oil, and there is currently no signal to stop the decline completely, so there is room for crude oil to go further down.
However, from the point of view of the short-term structure, crude oil fell below the flag-shaped finishing structure for the first time, and completely filled the technical gap in one fell swoop. In the case of a short-term plunge in crude oil, there is a need for technical upward repair.And there is 50% support for Fibonacci below the short-term line, so for the first time in this position, you can try to long crude oil in the short-term.
In trading today, the trading signals I announced on the channel for shorting gold around 1999-2000 and 2006 all reached the take-profit target of 1995. The trading signals in the last two weeks have achieved a comprehensive victory, and the result of 0 losses is enough for us to reap satisfactory profits.In trading, whether it is gold or crude oil, I have the ability to satisfy your desire to make money. I have announced detailed trading signals about crude oil in the channel. Please pay attention to the trading signals in the channel.
With multiple positive support, oil prices are expected to rise?Although the major oil-producing countries have implemented production cuts to give some support to crude oil, the demand for crude oil is not too strong because the economic recovery may be much slower than originally expected.Because when market demand surges, OPEC does not need to cut production significantly, so oil prices may not rise further, but will continue to fall.
On the daily chart of crude oil, in view of the surge and fall of oil prices on Monday, and the failure to break through the pressure of the strong resistance area upward for a long time, oil prices at this position are at risk of short-term volatility and peak, and the phased replenishment of the gap has not yet been completed, so compared with the top, there is still a lot of space below, so once the upward energy of crude oil is exhausted, you need to seek new technical support downwards.
Short-term trading reference:
Sell crude oil above 80.2, take profit level 79.4
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Can the oil price recovery last?Judging from the trend of crude oil, since crude oil rebounded above 74, the technical bullish signal has been significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the previous box shock.In addition, judging from the strength of the recent rebound, it has not been as strong, so the trend may face a certain level of adjustment in the short term, and there is a technical need to step back on the midline of the channel to confirm the demand.After the last wave of the 4-hour level trend rose, the price was temporarily.The narrow volatility that remains at a high level weakens the strength of the upper attack, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term.
Short-term trading reference: Sell crude oil near the 74.3 position, stop loss level 74.7, take profit level 73.2
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Rising oil prices are under pressure, so be careful of trapsAlthough the interruption of some exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq has raised concerns about tighter supply, the United States is expected to start strategic reserve repurchases during the year, which will also benefit oil prices to promote a rebound in oil prices.However, because of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, it is more the West that sanctions Russia, so it will not allow oil prices to rise sharply and have sufficient income, thus limiting the room for oil prices to rebound to a certain extent.
From the perspective of crude oil trends, since the surge on March 27, there has not been a decent pullback and repair, so crude oil technically needs at least a second pullback to prove the effectiveness of the oil price increase.
Short-term trading reference: sell crude oil near 74, stop loss level 74.4, take profit level 73.3
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
views in dcb for CRUDEOIL MCXMCX:CRUDEOIL1! broke down a major support zone and now that support zone acting as a major resistance zone . upcoming strong support zone 4705-4200. upcoming trend will be sideways to downtrend.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This expressed opinion/view/analysis isn't a trade/investment advice/recommendation. SEBI unregistered independent trader/analyst.
Crudeoil bears are working hard again, where will crudeoil fall?There may not be a shortcut to success, but there must be a way.Give up what should be given up, grasp what can be grasped; only insist on investing in your own investment standards.
Yesterday's short crude oil orders reaped very good profits, and the current crude oil is creating favorable trading opportunities for us.
At present, the U.S. Secretary of Energy has hinted that the country is in no hurry to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.In addition, Russia's continued supply of crude oil to the global market has also increased the pressure on the oil market, causing oil prices to fall again.
At present, crude oil has fallen as low as 66.8.Judging from the trend of crude oil, the rebound of crude oil has been blocked for two consecutive trading days, and a longer upper shadow line has been left, forming a secondary pressure, so the suppression of resistance above the 71 position is still relatively obvious.I also mentioned in my article yesterday that if oil prices are delayed in regaining the 72.4 position, there is a technical need for a second bottoming demand, which will increase the short-term bearish signal.
In the short-term treatment, the upper side initially pays attention to the pressure near 69, and the lower side pays attention to the support near 66.8.
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Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop falling?Crude oil prices continued to fall today, and are currently trading near US 65 per barrel.On the fundamental level, the supply and demand structure of the international crude oil market is still a small oversupply. Unless OPEC has a significant production reduction, it will be difficult to achieve much growth on the demand side.
Although UBS reached an agreement to acquire Credit Suisse over the weekend, and the Federal Reserve and other six major central banks jointly acted to enhance liquidity to appease and stabilize global financial markets, U.S. crude oil once rebounded by more than 1% to US 67.4 per barrel, but worries quickly picked up again, and the United States still has unresolved banking problems. The market is worried that the banking crisis will develop into a global financial tsunami, which in turn will drag down crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil quickly took back gains and continued last week's decline. It is currently down more than 2%, with a minimum of US 64.4 per barrel, which is December 2, 2021. A new low since then.
From the trend point of view, oil prices broke down after a wide-ranging shock at the daily level, and continued to fall after losing the important support of the 70-integer mark. Even if the 70-integer mark was not recovered during the subsequent rebound and the decline continued, the downward break was basically determined. The technical side is biased towards bears, and the future market of oil prices is inclined to further test the support near the December 2021 low of 62.46, and even look at the 60-integer mark.The initial resistance above is near 67. If this position can be recovered, it will increase the possibility of low oil price shock adjustment.
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Crude oil bears are not finished, predict the trend of crude oilAs the banking crisis hit the global financial and oil markets, NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil both fell more than 9% this week, and oil prices will record their largest weekly decline since the week of December 9 last year.
From the perspective of the trend, crude oil rebounded weakly after breaking through the level. Whether it is the daily or weekly line, it is effectively falling below. Pay attention to the trend after a few months of volatility. The market must continue to take advantage of the trend in the short term.
Taken together, crude oil as a whole is still in a bearish trend. At the daily level, crude oil oscillates and breaks downwards, and oil prices lose important support near the 70 mark. The market tends to continue to run downwards in the Bollinger band. The target refers to the position near the low of 62.43 on December 2, 2021.Since oil prices have recorded a longer lower K-line for two consecutive trading days, suggesting strong lower support, a DOJI was recorded on Thursday, and the KD technical indicators are also close to issuing an oversold signal. There is still a possibility of volatility bottoming out in the short term; the initial resistance is near the intraday high of 70, and the short-term resistance can be reasonably lowered to near 68.6-68.8.
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Ready to short crude oilThere are still concerns about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States in the market. Some investors are even worried about the arrival of a new round of global economic crisis. Moreover, the market is still worried about the oversupply of crude oil, and the future of oil prices is still biased towards bears.
It was mentioned in the article shared yesterday that once crude oil is established to be effective in breaking below the 70 mark, it is likely to fall further below the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Near the position.At present, since crude oil fell below the low of 72.3 in the shock range, it has fallen sharply again. The lowest has reached near 65.6, and there is only room for 3 US dollars from the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Now the short market is very strong, even in a small cycle, after a short pause or rebound in the falling market, it will choose to fall again, and the bulls have no resistance.Therefore, the current thinking about crude oil is still based on emptiness.
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Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop?After the recent bankruptcy of Bank of America, the pessimism of global investors lingered, and the increase in API crude oil inventories was greater than expected. It is expected that oil prices will still be at risk of further decline in the future.
In the trend of crude oil, the short-term decline continued during the day. The current lowest point during the day reached near 69.82, which broke the support near 70.09 at the bottom of the shock box for the past four months since December 9, and fell below the 70 integer mark, which means that oil prices have broken the shock trend for the past four months and have the possibility of accelerating the decline. Once it is established that the fall below the 70 mark is effective, further strong support refers to the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2. Near the position.
In addition, this trading day also needs to focus on the EIA crude oil inventory series data and the IEA monthly crude oil market report.
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