Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop falling?Crude oil prices continued to fall today, and are currently trading near US 65 per barrel.On the fundamental level, the supply and demand structure of the international crude oil market is still a small oversupply. Unless OPEC has a significant production reduction, it will be difficult to achieve much growth on the demand side.
Although UBS reached an agreement to acquire Credit Suisse over the weekend, and the Federal Reserve and other six major central banks jointly acted to enhance liquidity to appease and stabilize global financial markets, U.S. crude oil once rebounded by more than 1% to US 67.4 per barrel, but worries quickly picked up again, and the United States still has unresolved banking problems. The market is worried that the banking crisis will develop into a global financial tsunami, which in turn will drag down crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil quickly took back gains and continued last week's decline. It is currently down more than 2%, with a minimum of US 64.4 per barrel, which is December 2, 2021. A new low since then.
From the trend point of view, oil prices broke down after a wide-ranging shock at the daily level, and continued to fall after losing the important support of the 70-integer mark. Even if the 70-integer mark was not recovered during the subsequent rebound and the decline continued, the downward break was basically determined. The technical side is biased towards bears, and the future market of oil prices is inclined to further test the support near the December 2021 low of 62.46, and even look at the 60-integer mark.The initial resistance above is near 67. If this position can be recovered, it will increase the possibility of low oil price shock adjustment.
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Crudeoilshort
Crude oil bears are not finished, predict the trend of crude oilAs the banking crisis hit the global financial and oil markets, NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil both fell more than 9% this week, and oil prices will record their largest weekly decline since the week of December 9 last year.
From the perspective of the trend, crude oil rebounded weakly after breaking through the level. Whether it is the daily or weekly line, it is effectively falling below. Pay attention to the trend after a few months of volatility. The market must continue to take advantage of the trend in the short term.
Taken together, crude oil as a whole is still in a bearish trend. At the daily level, crude oil oscillates and breaks downwards, and oil prices lose important support near the 70 mark. The market tends to continue to run downwards in the Bollinger band. The target refers to the position near the low of 62.43 on December 2, 2021.Since oil prices have recorded a longer lower K-line for two consecutive trading days, suggesting strong lower support, a DOJI was recorded on Thursday, and the KD technical indicators are also close to issuing an oversold signal. There is still a possibility of volatility bottoming out in the short term; the initial resistance is near the intraday high of 70, and the short-term resistance can be reasonably lowered to near 68.6-68.8.
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Ready to short crude oilThere are still concerns about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States in the market. Some investors are even worried about the arrival of a new round of global economic crisis. Moreover, the market is still worried about the oversupply of crude oil, and the future of oil prices is still biased towards bears.
It was mentioned in the article shared yesterday that once crude oil is established to be effective in breaking below the 70 mark, it is likely to fall further below the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Near the position.At present, since crude oil fell below the low of 72.3 in the shock range, it has fallen sharply again. The lowest has reached near 65.6, and there is only room for 3 US dollars from the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Now the short market is very strong, even in a small cycle, after a short pause or rebound in the falling market, it will choose to fall again, and the bulls have no resistance.Therefore, the current thinking about crude oil is still based on emptiness.
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Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop?After the recent bankruptcy of Bank of America, the pessimism of global investors lingered, and the increase in API crude oil inventories was greater than expected. It is expected that oil prices will still be at risk of further decline in the future.
In the trend of crude oil, the short-term decline continued during the day. The current lowest point during the day reached near 69.82, which broke the support near 70.09 at the bottom of the shock box for the past four months since December 9, and fell below the 70 integer mark, which means that oil prices have broken the shock trend for the past four months and have the possibility of accelerating the decline. Once it is established that the fall below the 70 mark is effective, further strong support refers to the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2. Near the position.
In addition, this trading day also needs to focus on the EIA crude oil inventory series data and the IEA monthly crude oil market report.
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WTI Crude oil : Last chance to buy before new ATH? 18.05Inflation, inflation, inflation.
In China, 15/16 districts have zero Covid cases and all restrictions are set to be cancelled by June.
Globally, the disease is under control - Pretty much insuring a very busy summer for travel.
So fundamentally - Crude oil has plenty of room to rise in the short-term and mid-term.
When we look at the technicals we see :
1) Clear breakout and retest above triangle consolidation which led to strong bullish movement and bull trend ongoing now.
2) Clear close above key support/resistance zone of 108-109.
3) Probable immediate term target is resistance zone of 112.90 to 114.80.
4) A break above 114.80 could be strong confirmation for rally back to previous high and above.
5) Range trading between 108 to 114.80 is also very possible.
Bottom line -
Good chance for strong rally, downside to 108 is possible.
A close below 108 would be bearish in the immediate term.
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Crude OIL (XTIUSD) AnalysisTechnical Facts: Considering Technical analysis, Crude Oil already touched the second highest price in this week. now it’s high time for retrace. The Immediate support level is 117.80 to 118.20. A Strong break can lead the oil price till 114.18 which is the strongest support of 114.18.
Fundamental Facts:
Russia is one of the largest producer of Crude Oil in the world. a recent ban was imposed on Russia in 3rd June, 2022 by European Union. When supply decreases, demand increases and the price goes up. if EU cant convince Saudi Arabia to produce more oil and make a balance of the demands, the price might go up till 130 as well. therefore, the analysis might be invalid.
Signals:
CRUDE OIL
SELL STOP 117.80
SL# 119.61
TP# 114.18