Crudeoilshort
#CRUDEOIL - WAIT FOR A BOUNCE AND SHORTThanks for coming to this update.
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CRUDEOIL got rejected from the $41 resistance level and has fallen close to 10% from there within a comparatively small span of time.
Global markets like US30 / DOW JONES, SPY, SPX have also seen a good drop during the same time period and that could be the reason for the drop in CRUDEOIL prices.
Since we had a steep rejection from the $41 level, i would be more inclined towards expecting a fade off of the next upside rally.
Have the $41 level as a stop loss in case you try to short because if CRUDEOIL breaks above that level we can expect a teleport to higher levels (as a zone where we had seen good rejection earlier would now be broken).
If you look at the daily chart for CRUDEOIL, you will realise that it CRUDEOIL hadn't had a healthy pull back yet (see image below) and thus this drop can extend further downwards before we see a up-side rally.
The RSI, has also seen a steep drop in crude oil on the 4H chart which is a bearish sign.
Anyways, CRUDEOIL is correlated with GLOBAL MARKETS named above and trade along with them.
Please note: These are my views and not trading advice. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any trading decision.
DAILY RSI
CRUDEOIL - 58 ( bullish / neutral zone)
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - John Maynard Keynes
Crude Oil Wave Analysis After a strong show in the last weeks, crude oil needs to make an obvious correction.
We expect the correction to be of ABC structure and it has already completed waves A and B.
Further, the structure resembles a bullish flag pattern and the price is at the upper parallel now.
Currently, the pair is forming a bearish flag pattern in the short-term charts and a break below could guarantee a safe entry to bears.
PS: Aggressive trades, refer to the resistance at 40.41 for the stop.
Crude - Short SetupHi,
Is crude going to keep sliding? If the move down so far was missed, a nice opportunity for a new entry has been presented.
Entry around $21.
Stop loss around $22...just above the recent highs from the 27th & 31st.
I'm targeting $12.50 for now on the downside.
Tomorrow could be a big day for oil. The current OPEC+ deal expires with currently no agreement to keep the Saudis from opening the tap wide open.
I'm planning to enter at $21 and then add to the position with a break below the recent low at ~$19.25. If this level breaks...it looks favorable to get ugly.
What's everyone's thoughts on this trade?
All bets are off if a deal with OPEC comes together.
Cheers!
Days Off
Crude Oil To Trade Lower After A Short-term RecoveryCrude Oil daily chart above revealed that the downtrend since January 8, 2020, high is unfolding as a five-wave impulse. The pattern is labeled (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v), where the sub-waves of wave (iii) is also visible. Wave ii of (iii) was a sharp pattern, and wave iv of (iii) unfolded as a sideways triangle pattern.
The Wave theory states that a three-wave correction in the opposite direction follows every impulse. So, the decline to $20 on March 18 must be the end of wave (iii) of the five-wave impulse pattern.
This, in turn, meant that once the recovery in wave (iv) ended, another selloff in wave (v) would be very likely.
Wave (iv) has the potential to find resistance around 38.2% Fibonacci level that lined up with a resistance zone, which will be a good area to look for a short entry on Oil.
What's your view on Crude Oil?
Crude oil (This is a chart i actually drew on 28th April 2019)So, even before CoronaVirus broke out, i already had a chart dated back to April 2019 drawn but made private that shows this might be leg C going to 32.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
China impact on oil price - 2020 ForecastIf you like this idea, don't forget to support it, clicking the Like Button!
Do you know what are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2018?
China: US$239.2 billion (20.2% of total crude oil imports)
United States: $163.1 billion (13.8%)
India: $114.5 billion (9.7%)
Japan: $80.6 billion (6.8%)
South Korea: $80.4 billion (6.8%)
Netherlands: $48.8 billion (4.1%)
Germany: $45.1 billion (3.8%)
Spain: $34.2 billion (2.9%)
Italy: $32.6 billion (2.8%)
France: $28.5 billion (2.4%)
Thailand: $28.4 billion (2.4%)
Singapore: $28 billion (2.4%)
United Kingdom: $26 billion (2.2%)
Taiwan: $23.4 billion (2%)
Belgium: $19.5 billion (1.7%)
Now, these data are related to 2018, and it's easy to understand how the first four countries have a great impact on oil price, and how China could influence oil price (that, at this point, is influenced by China's economic development).
In 2019, China broke records for crude oil imports, importing more crude oil than the U.S. did at its peak.
We all know that oil price is affected by high volatility (I am a supporter of the "Rollercoaster Theory" XD). However, oil price increased thanks to increasing China's demand (one of the most important factors), combined with scarcity from the suppliers.
Despite this, there is a high risk that China's oil demand could halve this year (2020) generating a lower global oil demand for about $100 billion. If supply is maintained at the same levels, I will expect oil to be cheaper, at least in the first half of 2020.
From a technical point of view, the broke of the $57.11 support could realize the beginning of an important downtrend. If China confirms this information, traders will not be late to open their short positions.
Investing Fellow
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
Crude oil falls from heights! Next level $57.50?In our last analysis, we were targetting $65.50+ on oil and we got our profit target with a little help from the increased Middle Eastern tensions. From there the news subsided for the most part (tensions still high) and everything was priced in. Causing Oil to regulate back down to the "normal" levels. Price plunged through all the immediate support levels. Through $62.50, $61.00 and even $59.50.
From here there are two short term opportunities. The bulls or the bears.
The current intraday price action suggests there's more downside with the descending triangle. First the support structure at $58.70 has to collapse for price to continue to lows. We could see price use that broken support as resistance on the retrace which will confirm the downside. The downside target is first at $57.85 then $57.00.
There could be a late run by the bulls through the immediate resistance. If price moves above $59.65 and holds it as support on the retrace we could see $61.00 oil yet again. The downside volume is, however, coming out pretty aggressively.
This idea is for educational purposes only. This does not constitute as trading or investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for any market activity.