Crudeoilwti
ridethepig | Oil Breaking Down !There were the usual people who did not wish to engage in the sell-side before understanding what was being said from the WHO. Experts calling this a national emergency and now stronger players entering into the market with direct shocks on the demand side.
Moves likes this, which weaken important structures should if possible be played and as a matter of fact, with large sizings. What is important is that the long-term flows have kept us comfortable in the move:
The same highs we traded earlier in 2019:
Things have continued....
Sellers are better. Clearly the downside is the correct move. In this position, sellers undoubtedly have the control, but since no one knows the full extent of the penetration nor impact that the coronavirus is having on output, we will remain in uncertain waters and only a supply shock can save the buyers.
Those on the bid are praying for protection from OPEC, the silence is crippling. Sellers can consider to either play the direct breakdown through the floor (intending to clear some at 46.97 and holding the rest for the home-run). This of course has to be introduced by NY today and the securing of the break with a daily (and weekly) close. The reply from buyers would be muted, there is no contest below the file. This method is how I have characterised the entire activity by Sellers on each swing attached below.
As usual thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc! Good luck!
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaBearish flag, or Starting Wedge? Could be either.
A flag or wedge appears to be forming and could be a bearish wave 4 or a bullish wave 1, a break below $5211 would signal a 5th wave down towards $50 and a break above $5735 would cancel out the 5 wave idea and could see price back towards $65...I personally favour the idea that C wave completed at $5211 and we see higher prices from here.
An update to previous ideas below:
Crude Oil TSI/MACD IdeaIs there a move downward coming in oil?
If you apply 7,4,7 settings to TSI you can see it leads MACD on many occasions (either up or down); highlighted the last 3 big down moves in oil where TSI has turned bearish and MACD followed, TSI on 1W chart has recently turned bearish.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea
Slight variation as I noticed that when price bounced from 5400 levels it was the 0.5 retracement of the yellow wave 1 I have shown.
If it is a wave 2 retracement at 5400 level then we may have had wave 3 early in the week post Saudi attack and already completed wave 4 at 5765.
There appears to be an ABCD pattern pointing towards 67 and the .618 extension of wave 3 is at 6560.
If price breaks below 5743 it invalidates this count (wave 4 crossing wave 1) and may indicate that the high 6330 was the end of wave C, not wave 3, a drop back towards 50 may happen in that case.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate on this idea >
Looks like an ABC completed at the $63 high and now moving down it what appears to be a well defined channel.
If my current count is correct then the 1.618 extension is at $50,58 which could present a triple bottom to complete wave C of X(2), then upward to complete wave Z back near $63, or higher.
USOIL Long/BuyDear traders,
Us WTI Crude has been on bullish since beginning of Oct this year 2019, it sounds that it has not yet finished on its way up, therefore we may see it going up to the next resistance, it's also worth mentioning that it has broken a strong resistance line which is 78.6 Fib Level and retested it; its good indication that market is going up hopefully.
Here is the setup:
Crude Oil Buy at 61.00
Stop Loss at 59.88
Take Profit at 63.30
Good Luck and Happy New Year!!