Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to long term correction ideas.
Looks like C wave has now completed after hitting the 0.5 extension on Friday and dropping quickly.
It could be that ABC is complete, correcting the whole move from $77 to $42, a new low below $42 may come but I think there might be a bigger complex correction (WXY) in play which could see a 50% correction to $50, then up for one more high towards $60-$63 before the new low below $42 comes.
A double top and bearish divergence on daily suggests more downside to come in the next few weeks.
A wave completing before the correction for B and then C upward >
The 5th wave of 5/C/W completed >
Crudeoilwti
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaCould be completion of an ABC correction at 5738.
Alternate is only wave 3 of impulsive move was complete (in red), if price turns up from the .382 level there could be a 5th wave and a new high.
There appears to be bearish divergence on daily timeframe so a new low may occur which would fit with the ABC
Crude Oil Candle PatternWeekly candle on crude oil closed as a bearish engulfing > www.candlesticker.com
Definition
This pattern is characterized by a large black body engulfing a preceding smaller white body, which appears during an uptrend. The black body does not necessarily engulf the shadows of the white body but totally engulfs the body itself. This is an important top reversal signal.
Recognition Criteria
1. The market is characterized by a prevailing uptrend.
2. A white body is formed observed on the first day.
3. The black body that is formed on the second day completely engulfs the white body of the preceding day.
Pattern Requirements and Flexibility
The length of the first white candlestick is not important. It can even be a Doji. The second one, however, has to be a normal or long black candlestick. Either the body tops or the body bottoms of the two candlesticks may be at the same level, but in any case, the black body of the Bearish Engulfing Pattern should be longer than the previous white body.
Trader’s Behavior
While the market is characterized by a definite uptrend, lower volume of buying is observed with the occurrence of a white body on the first day. The next day, the market opens at new highs. It looks as if there’s going to be more bullish trading, however the uptrend loses momentum and the bears take the lead during the day. The selling pressure overcomes buying and finally the market closes below the open of the previous day. The uptrend is damaged.
Sell/Stop Loss Levels
The confirmation level is defined as the last close. Prices should cross below this level for confirmation.
The stop loss level is defined as the last high. Following the bearish signal, if prices go up instead of going down, and close or make two consecutive daily highs above the stop loss level, while no bullish pattern is detected, then the stop loss is triggered.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this 5 wave count >
And internal waves of A in this larger degree count >
Even though oil hit the .382 level at $55,57 it retraced and climbed a little higher, I think there is still a little more to come, the .382 extension from wave 1 is at $55,91, from there A may be completed before a larger correction back to where the move the $50 mark started, then up towards $60+
Crude Oil Elliott Crude oil could be nearing the end of a corrective B wave.
Price just touched the 0.5 extension at 52,51 for what could be wave 5 of C of B but could also touch the 0.618 extension at 52,70.
A drop below 51,31 would go some way to validating this idea as it rules out what could be an impulsive 5 move upwards.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaThere looks to be a morning star candle pattern on weekly chart for crude oil and 5 waves completed at mid 42 level, following from this idea bouncing from the .618 extension >
If this is completion of 5 waves from 7690 then its possible that its part of an ABC leg and a correction has started, another leg down below the recent low made at 4220 could happen post correction.