Crudeoilwti
CRUDE OIL 1 MONTH VIEW, BIGGER PICTURE FOR BIG BEAR CYCLE?Other than the CM_Ult and CM_MacD, you can see candlestick pattern identification, to see when initial bull began, etc. Take a closer look and analyse.
Here is the pre-indicated active link for chart to trail it ~ enjoy~
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Do set stop losses when trading but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
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Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this long term theory in Crude Oil >
Big bearish wave since hitting 7689 which could be C wave as part of a bigger wave 4. Long term channel bottom and the median line parallel of the pitchfork shown could be a good buying area around $58/$59 for a wave up towards $80.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaLower timeframe of this idea >
Looks like a big wedge (ending diagonal) is forming which could be for wave 5 of C (C shown in the link above in green) which could mean that the down trend in crude oil price is nearing an end.
Ending diagonal often occurs when the preceding move of the trend has gone too far, too fast and has run out of steam (15$ drop in 4 weeks or so fits this).
Wave 4 and wave 1 can overlap but here they haven't but I believe that is a guideline, not a rule for ending diagonals.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA slightly wild variation to this long term bullish theory on Crude Oil
This idea is a bit wild but there are similarities between 2007/08 and 2017/18, explained below in screenshots.
2007/08:
There was 3 months of sideways price action from November 2007 until January 2008, followed by a large rise in price that then corrected to the 0.5 Fibonnaci level. As price fell back there was bullish hidden divergence (MACD histogram made lower low but price made higher low, indicating trend continuation)
2017/18:
Same sideways price action, same large rise following sideways price action, same 0.5 Fibonnaci retracement, same bullish hidden divergence
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea >
Since 7130 broke the regular impulsive waves are now invalid (wave 4 crossing wave 1) but I think theres a chance that an ending diagonal could play out.
There is also potentially bullish hidden divergence on the MACD histogram; price can drop all the way down to the last swing low around 67 and this hidden divergence can still be valid.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to long term theory >
It looks like wave 3 of 3 of 5 is completed so may pull back soon to .236 ($73,92) or .382 ($72,80) before the next leg up.
Interestingly in a variation of the same long term theory we hit the .382 extension at $75,75 > This is using the fib extension from the start of wave 3 at $45,67 to the top of wave 3 at $75,27 and end of wave 4 at $64,48. I do think that even though this level has been met that there are more waves up to come.
In the current chart I have changed the parameters for the fib extension tool by starting from the beginning of wave 1 at $42,08 to the top of wave 3 and end of wave 4, based on that I believe price can hit the 0.5 extension at $81,03.
This theory can be ignored > I miscounted here which is a variation of the original subwave count here >
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn alternate to his idea >
And part of this idea >
This is now my primary count as it's the most obvious wave scenario and looks like 3 of C was completed at Fridays high.
If the base channel (blue) holds at the .382 level next week then we may see a 5th wave to to $70 area to complete a larger wave 1, followed by wave 2 to the 0.5 level before wave 3 to $76+
If the base channel doesn't hold then I think it's likely that an ABC completed at Fridays high and that would likely take price below $60.
You can see in subwaves of wave 3 another channel with wave 4 correcting to the channel bottom and 0.382 of wave 3 >
The larger wave 3 (of C) hit the base channel top and we might see it correct to .382 of wave 3 before up to the .618 extension >
If it is a larger wave 1 we're in then $78 looks possible >