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Crudeoilwti

Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaLower timeframe of this idea > Looks like a big wedge (ending diagonal) is forming which could be for wave 5 of C (C shown in the link above in green) which could mean that the down trend in crude oil price is nearing an end. Ending diagonal often occurs when the preceding move of the trend has gone too far, too fast and has run out of steam (15$ drop in 4 weeks or so fits this). Wave 4 and wave 1 can overlap but here they haven't but I believe that is a guideline, not a rule for ending diagonals.
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA slightly wild variation to this long term bullish theory on Crude Oil This idea is a bit wild but there are similarities between 2007/08 and 2017/18, explained below in screenshots. 2007/08: There was 3 months of sideways price action from November 2007 until January 2008, followed by a large rise in price that then corrected to the 0.5 Fibonnaci level. As price fell back there was bullish hidden divergence (MACD histogram made lower low but price made higher low, indicating trend continuation) 2017/18: Same sideways price action, same large rise following sideways price action, same 0.5 Fibonnaci retracement, same bullish hidden divergence
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn update to long term theory > It looks like wave 3 of 3 of 5 is completed so may pull back soon to .236 ($73,92) or .382 ($72,80) before the next leg up. Interestingly in a variation of the same long term theory we hit the .382 extension at $75,75 > This is using the fib extension from the start of wave 3 at $45,67 to the top of wave 3 at $75,27 and end of wave 4 at $64,48. I do think that even though this level has been met that there are more waves up to come. In the current chart I have changed the parameters for the fib extension tool by starting from the beginning of wave 1 at $42,08 to the top of wave 3 and end of wave 4, based on that I believe price can hit the 0.5 extension at $81,03. This theory can be ignored > I miscounted here which is a variation of the original subwave count here >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaAn alternate to his idea > And part of this idea > This is now my primary count as it's the most obvious wave scenario and looks like 3 of C was completed at Fridays high. If the base channel (blue) holds at the .382 level next week then we may see a 5th wave to to $70 area to complete a larger wave 1, followed by wave 2 to the 0.5 level before wave 3 to $76+ If the base channel doesn't hold then I think it's likely that an ABC completed at Fridays high and that would likely take price below $60. You can see in subwaves of wave 3 another channel with wave 4 correcting to the channel bottom and 0.382 of wave 3 > The larger wave 3 (of C) hit the base channel top and we might see it correct to .382 of wave 3 before up to the .618 extension > If it is a larger wave 1 we're in then $78 looks possible >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
2
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaThe bigger picture for this idea > And follow up from this idea > If the base channel (blue) holds and we get a 5th wave up towards $70 next week then that could be a bigger wave 1 of 5 towards $78. Ultimately the invalidation point for this count is wave 4 crossing wave 1 at 6636, however, if the base channel breaks I think bears might have control. The blue fib levels are the extension and retracement levels for the subwaves of the bigger 5 (green) and the green fib levels are the extensions of wave 3 (green). Thought I would show the subwaves I counted up from $42 for anyone interested: For wave 1 from $42 to $50; An awkward wave to count but settled with this > For wave 3 of 3 of 3; A running flat correction for subwave 2 to the .236 level > For wave 4 of 3 of 3; A WXY with Y terminating at the 0.5 extensions of W > For wave 5 of 3 of 3; An ending diagonal > For wave 4 of 3; An ABC > That terminated at 0.382 of wave 3 > For wave 5 of 3; A very brutal move upwards with wave 3 hitting the 4.618 extension of wave 1 and an ending diagonal for the final wave > And finally the big wave 4 that formed what appears to be a WXYXZ right to the lower channel trendline > I tried to predict this wave many times () with a little bit of success. To further reinforce my belief in this count wave 3 also hit the 3.618 extension and wave 4 almost hit the 0.382 level but I think the bullish trendline prevented that >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
3
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to this idea with a slightly different count on October contract > Possibly in wave 5 now but the yellow wave iii could also be C wave and that could mean we're already in impulsive move down, key price is at the red line as crossing this will invalidate it (wave 4 crossing wave 1). Some nice fib levels in subwaves of wave iii (yellow) > Some nice fib levels in subwaves of 3 (white) > Zoomed in on the ABC from Fridays high of day to low of day it looks like a nice 5-3-5 structure > It will be interesting to see how this count develops on Monday morning, if it does complete 5 waves then that could be a larger degree wave 1, or wave A.
NYMEX:CLV2018
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaPlease ignore this idea > I forgot to plot any potential outcome (its late here) :) An update to a previous idea > It appears the the 5th wave is now completed after coming close to the .382 level of wave 3 before pushing down to just below the .382 extension. It also ties in with this idea that Y wave is completed > There are 5 waves down with nice Fibonacci relationships > 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3 termination, 1:1 of wave 3 for wave 5 termination Zoomed in those waves you can see the ending diagonal for wave 5 of 5 > I'll let the current waves develop and attempt to plot some waves once things settle down but on 5min timeframe there is already some nice Fibonacci relationships > I think one possibility is a WXYXZ back to the level of wave 4 in the impulsive move up and the 0.382 retracement level >
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaA bearish alternative to this idea > And smaller timeframe analysis to this theory > I think it's possible that Fridays movement was an ABC to complete a larger degree wave 4. If you look on the 5m chart here > You can see 5 waves up (orange) before a pull back to the .236 level then up for one more wave which could be C; from the top there appears to be a starting wedge for what could be wave 1 down. The key level for this theory to play out is Fridays high, above that level then the move is invalid (wave 2 crossing wave 1 starting point).
TVC:USOIL
by Joseph_King