Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaNot really a serious trading idea...
Fridays rise (correction?) similar to the rise/correction after the drop from 664X to 636X back in late January, approaching the same trendline now, will a similar fall in price occur?
The structures are similar, the fall and correction, followed by a huge fall in February. Copying that fall in February (using Bars Pattern tool) to now equates to 1.618 of B wave, coincidence maybe.
Crudeoilwti
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaAn update on this idea >
I think we're still in the wave 4 shown in the above chart. Wave 4 touched wave 1 and started moving downward so might still be alive.
Possibly touch 6016 then correct before finally breaking out of the large triangle towards $58.
This move and the move from 6328 to 5995 are almost identical but current move is a smaller degree.
Still holding a short from 6224. 6208 was closed in profit and I have added two more at 6135.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaMay be a bullish count to consider as part of this idea >
C wave could be a wave 3 and we're in the process of wave 4 now. I think that's what bulls might try to play out.
Currently holding short positions from 6222 and 6208 and planning to hold for my bearish theory to sub $60.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaA zoomed in view of what I believe to be wave 2 correction as per this chart >
Please read the notes here as I couldn't post a 5 minute chart on Trading View so I put notes on my chart from Investing.com > invst.ly
Based on internal waves 6230 area could be the completion of C wave.
Friday was undoubtedly bullish but in my opinion it could be a rapid wave 2 correction before the next leg down; invalidation point is 6327 (wave 2 crossing wave 1)
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaSlightly zoomed out view of this chart >
5 waves down leading to 5995 had near perfect fibs; 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3, approx. 0.618 of wave 1 for wave 2 and approx. 1.618 of wave 4 for wave 5.
Strong bearish trendline approaching which could be the turning point for Fridays rise.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaA zoomed in view of what I believe to be wave 2 correction as per this chart >
Please read the notes here as I couldn't post a 5 minute chart on Trading View so I put notes on my chart from Investing.com > invst.ly
Based on internal waves 6230 area could be the completion of C wave.
Friday was undoubtedly bullish but in my opinion it could be a rapid wave 2 correction before the next leg down; invalidation point is 6327 (wave 2 crossing wave 1)
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaUpdate on this idea >
I think the chances for a move up from here are slim, looks as though we are in a large correction from 6666 to 55 area.
Wave A and B have completed and what looks like wave 1 of 3 of C completed, may now have a correction for wave 2 of 3 of C before what is normally a brutal selling wave (3 of 3).
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaLittle update to this idea:
I think A wave is complete (it bounced from 0.382 as per this idea > )
If it is we may correct to the same level as the smaller degree white wave 4 around 6320 (.618 is there too), just as the white wave 4 corrected to 6330 area, the same level as the smaller degree wave 4 (blue waves).
Next could be C wave (or wave 3 in a more bearish count).
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaI had posted this idea on 1H but got it wrong:
Seems there was and ending diagonal wave 5 for the end of wave 3 which was then followed by a bounce at 0.382 for wave 4. Looks like we are in wave 5 now, possibly one more leg up early next week to hit 1.618 of wave 4 around 6381, but there is a possibility the wave will continue on to 2.618 at 6570.
This may all be part of wave 1 so correction should happen if it is before up for wave 3.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaAn update to several recent and older ideas on Crude Oil:
I believe we are nearing the end of wave 1 of 5 and if so could see a correction to mid 60's to 0.618 fib, but could correct higher at 0.382 or 0.5. Wave 3 should follow the correction to at least 1.618 of wave 1. Ultimately I think wave 5 will hit 1.618 of the larger wave 4 (6666/5809) around 72.
Daily TSI and daily MACD both bullish and the bullish Harami I pointed out last week seems to be having the desired effect:
Check out previous weekly bullish Harami, more green follows :)
Crude Oil - Bullish Harami?Not a candlestick pattern specialist but looks like a text book Bullish Harami on weekly; the green candle body formed last week is completely engulfed by the red candle from the week before.
"The Bullish Harami is a sign of disparity in the market’s health. The market is characterized by a downtrend and a bearish mood, and there is heavy selling reflected by a red body, which further supports the bearishness. However, the next day prices open higher or at the close of the preceding day and the short traders are alarmed. This leads to the covering of many short positions, causing the price to rise further. The latecomers short the trend they missed the first time, and slow down the rise. Thus, a smaller green body is formed. This may signal a trend reversal since the second day’s small real body shows that the bearish power is diminishing."
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaTheory for crude; possibly in the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder and sub waves of a larger wave 3.
Potentially a double bottom and bounce off strong bullish trendline.
The trendline that forms the neckline has been very resistant, if it keeps price in check it could potentially fall and correct to around 0.618 at 5950 ish before resuming upward.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaUpdate to several recent ideas:
Looks promising for wave 5 now, bounced around 0.382 fib for 4 days and has now moved upwards. Has stopped at 0.382 of the complete ABC around the mid 61 area which is a common point for wave 1 to complete, may see a correction soon before wave 3 of wave 5.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaIntraday idea that could be forming part of a larger move upward.
Potentially in wave 4 (to 0.382 of wave 3) around $60,00 with wave 5 1.618 or 2.618 of wave 4 to $61,30 or $62,09
Invalidation point is wave 4 crossing wave 1 at $59,70...crossing that point would mean more bearish move down in my opinion and would indicate a possible ABC correction completed to $60,80.
No position now. Will wait for this move to play out in full as if it is a bullish move to 61-62 then there should be a decent correction to buy from.