Crude UpdateUpdated ABC correction as the 5 waves up within A were much steeper than I previously plotted. Possible ending of B & C waves plotted for the end of wave 4 down, wave 5 down to follow in the region of 4560 depending where C of 4 completes.
No position at the moment, waiting to short the end of C wave.
Crudeoilwti
Crude UpdateTarget hit early this morning for my new short entries; added between 4802 and 4810 and since then price has started moving downwards, appears to be in a correction of the move from 4816 to 4734 at the moment and I would expect it to complete at 0.5 (4771) or 0.618 (4881) of wave 1 down, before beginning wave 3 of 3 to 4618.
Crude Bigger PictureHere is my Elliot Wave projection on a larger scale. In my opinion $47,99 (0.618 of wave 1 (pink waves)) or up to $48,25 will hit early next week which could be a great short opportunity to hold to the $41 region.
Holding short positions from $47,80 and $47,60 and will add a few more as price creeps up toward my target of $48-48,25
Crude Oil - Internals of Wave 3 DownIf Crude Oil does drop after reach 4890 I have plotted the internals of wave 3 down:
Pink Waves:
A. Wave 1 0.382 of C
B. Wave 2 0.5 of wave 1
C. Wave 3 2.618 of wave 1
D. Wave 4 0.382 of wave 3
E. Wave 5 1.618 of wave 4
Green Waves:
A. Wave 2 0.5 of wave 1
B. Wave 3 2.618 of wave 1
C. Wave 4 0.382 of wave 3
D. Wave 5 1.618 of wave 4
The larger wave 3 (red waves) was projected from the larger wave 1 in my previous chart to end around 4404 and these internal waves point to 4398
Crude Still Heading SouthCrude spiked on Friday due to an impulsive C wave (in my opinion) from 4647 toward 4890 (0.618 retrace of 5041/4647) on its way to complete wave 2 down.
Waves 3, 4 & 5 have been plotted using 1.618 of wave 1 for wave 3, 0.382 of wave 3 for wave 4 and 1.618 of wave 4 for wave 5. No consideration for wave extensions to 3 & 5, so price could go much lower than plotted if extensions to 2.618 occur.
It should be noted that wave 2 down can reach as high as 5041 and still be valid for Elliot Wave rules so plenty of upside left potentially (the internal wave 2 of wave 1 hit 5021, way beyond 0.618 of wave 1 at 5041).
Holding short positions from 4835-4850 with SL 4897.
Crude oil coming closer to Strong supply zonesCrude Oil has been in counter uptrend since june 21st 2017 and will reach a strong supply zone around $50 to $52. I am expecting a reversal from there in 1-2 weeks from today.
After the market opens on monday, the crude oil is expected to trade above $47.70 for a few days till it come closer to $50. As it comes closer to $50 expect sellers to step in, and slowly supply will exceed the demand. And as supply get stronger from $50 to $52 a reversal of trend is expected.