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Crude oil rises, can it reach $90? WTI crude oil futures fluctuated higher, trading at $84.89 per barrel, an increase of 1.09%. Since March 27, oil prices have continued to rise and have hit a five-month high. During the European session, WTI crude oil prices continued to rise, hitting $85.42 during the session, before falling slightly during European midday trading. To some extent, oil's rally is managing to emulate gold, which has also seen a steady increase in buying since the start of last week. The recent rise in oil prices can also be attributed to signs that China's economy is accelerating, as well as continued strength in U.S. manufacturing data, which bodes well for energy demand. These all suggest that oil prices should rise further, with the line chart showing that oil prices have accelerated since the second half of March, with the upper boundary of the ascending channel turning into support last week. We are also watching for a "golden cross" to form, which may attract more speculative buying in the coming days. The target is around $90.
TVC:USOILLong
by Jerome-Leon
1
Futures market backwardation suggests a sluggish outlookDefying our expectations, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose above $75 and began to form a rectangle pattern between $76.16 and $79.25 (following a breakdown of negotiations between Israel and Hamas). Currently, the USOIL is trading near the lower bound of this range, which also coincides with the 20-day SMA that acts as an alternative support level. On the daily timeframe, the MACD performed a bearish crossover, and RSI with Stochastic reversed to the downside. Simultaneously, the ADX continued lower, indicating a lack of any trend. Yet, despite that, the futures contracts continue to trade backward, which suggests the market’s sluggish outlook for the oil’s future price. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the USOIL’s daily chart and simple support/resistance levels. Illustration 1.02 The MACD line and signal line performed a bearish crossover. However, they are still within the bullish area above the midpoint. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
Crude oil could rally from $72Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower candle wicks made a series of higher lows. Momentum is now turning higher. Bulls could seek dips down to $72 (yesterday's low) or a break of its high, with an upside target around $78, near the 200-day MA and 100-day EMA.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Crude Oil Continues to Fall6.15 Analysis of today's crude oil market trend: Overnight, EIA synchronous API inventories all rebounded in varying degrees, confirming the current market concerns about poor demand. At the same time, with the Fed’s interest rate decision, the expectation of further interest rate hikes in the future has risen again, and the market pressure remains. The nearby shocks reversed to around 70.4 and were blocked and fell back. In the short term, the pattern of consolidation in a range remains unchanged. In terms of operation, it is good to continue to maintain this range of thinking and look for a position to sell high and buy low. 6.15 crude oil strategy: Crude oil rebounds at 69.4, defends at 70.2, looks at the line of 68-67, steps back more around 67, defends at 66.3, looks at around 69 (for reference only, the actual offer shall prevail)
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by K-linesound
USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
18
70$ nearly hit, reconsideration of thoughts, and retracementFor several months, we provided price rankings for USOIL, most of which were fulfilled already. The only price target we kept was 70$ per barrel, which was nearly hit last Friday when the price stopped at 70.10$ (just 0.13% away from the price target). With the price level nearly hit, it is time for us to step away from the market and reconsider the situation. In our previous idea, we outlined how the price deviated too far from its moving averages (20-day SMA and 50-day SMA) and might be setting itself for the price retracement to the upside. After hitting a new low, that became the case for USOIL, with the price rising to 74.30$. At the moment, we do not expect a primary trend reversal from bearish to bullish. However, we want to stay on the sidelines and avoid setting new price targets until the picture gets clearer. Until then, we will maintain a neutral position. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate a new low at 70.10$ and retracement toward 20-day SMA in progress. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish (but showing signs of exhaustion) Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
China's turmoil, SPRs, and further deterioration in outlookIn our previous update on West Texas Intermediate crude oil, we updated our price target from long-term to medium-term. Additionally, we stated that this price target could soon become short-term, depending on oil market developments. Today, finally, USOIL hit a new yearly low at 73.62$, further confirming our bearish thesis. Accordingly, we continue to maintain our price target at 70$. Our views are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. We expect the global recession to weigh heavily on oil prices in the coming months. In addition to that, we expect the United States to offset any price increases with more releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). As if it was not enough, turmoil in China also does not support the bullish narrative, putting higher prices at risk. The same applies to OPEC member countries that seek to increase their production despite a slowing economy. Overall, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The illustration shows the daily chart of USOIL, simple support/resistance levels, and two moving averages. At the moment, the price appears too far from these moving averages, likely foreshadowing a correction to the upside (as the price deviated too far from its MAs). Now, these MAs act as significant resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
16
USOIL - Similarities between 2008 and nowLast week, our short-term price target of 80 USD was reached. Because of that, we would like to reiterate that we remain bearish on USOIL. In addition to that, we maintain our long-term price target of 70 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the similarity between the oil price pattern in 2008 and now. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
25
WTI oil - The end of oil bull marketIn early April 2022, we said the oil bull market peaked. Then, a bit later, we stated that if the Russian crude oil was to be banned in the EU, we would see another bounce in price and possibly a new top. Despite that, we set a long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD; we still hold this price target as we continue to be bearish on oil. In addition to that, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL at 100 USD and a medium-term price target at 95 USD. Fundamental factors The FED is decided to pursue the destruction of demand, which will negatively impact the oil price as the stock market is poised to crash further down. Additionally, supply increases by the OPEC members threaten the high value of oil. Illustration 1.01 The WTI crude oil is down over 20% from its peak and within the technical bear market. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bearish crossover. The ADX suggests that the bull trend has ended. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
10
WTI oil - The uptrend in oil continues to peakExactly one month ago, we stated that the Russian oil ban would lead to an uptick in oil prices. Since then, the European Union has started to take measures concerning its oil dependence on Russia. Meanwhile, WTI oil has risen from 106 USD up to 114 USD, where it trades currently. Despite being bullish in the short-term and medium-term, we also stated (in our previous posts) that we expected the bull market in oil to peak; in addition to that, we set and maintained our long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD. That also applies today, and we still keep this target. Fundamental factors Our bearish view is based upon several fundamental factors. Among these is the prospect of higher output by the OPEC in the second half of 2022 and the global need for lower oil prices. We expect the U.S. to put pressure on OPEC; there is already a rumor Joe Biden is supposed to ask Saudi Arabia to lower its output. Another fact we consider is that despite the Russian oil ban, new highs were not reached by USOIL. Illustration 1.01 USOIL appears in the downward sloping channel. The breakout above it will suggest more bulishness in the short term. The channel is Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to MACD; however, it remains in the bullish territory. DM+ and DM- are also bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, certain technical and fundamental developments raise caution. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- remain bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
12
USOIL: Higher Crude Prices Coming The oil market is currently the battleground of a tremendously hard-fought struggle that will likely resolve in favor of higher prices with an increase in volatility along the way. After decisively holding the line above $100/bbl in recent weeks, Crude Oil looks ready to extend gains. On one side you have the price suppression from the US-led SPR releases, and the echoing effects of the FED and Central Banks stepping on the brakes. Then on the other side are the supplies as Russian crude gets harder to place (aside from Asia), risks to complementary sources of energy (especially gas), a foot-dragging OPEC+, and support for consumption in ex-China economies as they move beyond the pandemic. The latest news from Europe is supportive of prices, especially the choking off of Russian gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria . That'll boost energy costs, and may be the precursor to interruptions elsewhere . On top of all that, the EU is set to begin transitioning away from Moscow's oil , as well as a shift away from Russian business from major trading houses . U.S. crude stockpiles rose 619,000 barrels last week . However, refined products markets continued to show signs of extraordinary tightness as the disappearance of Russian oil forced Europe and Latin America to depend more on U.S. imports for fuel. Taking all this into consideration, Crude Oil looks set to push higher.
TVC:USOILLong
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
2
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (7th December 2021)Today WTI oil broke above 70 USD and it currently trades around 71.50 USD per barrel. In our previous ideas we stated that ongoing politics between OPEC and the U.S. presented headwinds for the price of oil. We also noted that USOIL reached oversold conditions and its price was very attractive for long position (re)entry (as we remained bullish in long-term). Then we updated the most recent idea on 3rd December 2020 where we said that a bullish breakout above 69.21 USD took place. Today's breakout above the 70 USD price tag is even more bullish; additionally, it suggests that correction most likely ended. We are bullish on oil in the short-term as well as in the long-term. Because of that we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL to 72.50 USD. Our medium-term price target for USOIL is 75 USD and our long-term price target for oil is 85 USD per barrel. Technical analysis - daily time frame Stochastic reversed and it is currently pointing into a bullish direction. RSI broke above 30 points (from oversold zone) which is very bullish. MACD remains in the bearish area, however, it shows first signs of trying to reverse. This view is also supported by its declining histogram. Additionally, ADX peaked which suggests that correction peaked as well. Though, DM+ and DM- continue to show bearish conditions. Overall, technical analysis is less bearish than at the time of our most recent update. Indeed, several indicators point to the end of correction and reversal in trend. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI seems to reverse its bearish direction back to the upside. We will await confirmation of this move by gain in USOIL for the current week (and next week). MACD remains in the bullish area, however, it still points into bearish direction. It needs to be observed closely in the following weeks.Stochastic remains bearish. DM+ and DM- remain bearish, however, ADX declines which suggests that selling pressure is cooling off. In general, weekly time frame remains bearish. Because of that we remain little bit cautious. However, weekly time frame respons with higher latency than daily time frame. Support and resistance Closest psychological support sits at 70 USD while short-term support sits slightly below that at 69.60 USD. Other two support levels are at 69.21 USD and then at 65.11 USD. Major support level appears at 61.76 USD. Closest resistance lies at 74.21 USD, then other resistance levels sit at 75.47 USD and at 76.95 USD. Major resistance level is at 85.39 USD. Other possible resistance levels: These resistance levels are derived from the peaks that price made during the correction. They are at 79.20 USD and 84.95 USD. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
6
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (2nd December 2021)Contrary to our expectations, OPEC's meeting resulted in a further drop in the price of USOIL. Sudden drop of more than 2 USD per barrel (to as low as 62.46 USD) occured on headline news regarding the proposal on output hike by Russian Federation. Sudden selloff is shown on 1 minute chart below: It took merely 5 minutes for USOIL to drop over 4.3%. We previously stated that we expected OPEC to ease production as a countermeasure to release of strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. However, the Russian Federation came forward with the opposite proposal at today's OPEC meeting (to boost production by 400 000 bpd, starting in January 2022). Price retracement after selloff: It took approximately an hour for price to retrace headline news selloff. Overall, we continue to see headwinds for WTI oil in the short-term and medium-term ( mainly due to rise in production, global lockdown measures and ongoing politics between OPEC and the U.S.). Technical indicators show extremely oversold conditions on a daily time frame while weekly time frame suggests that bearish structure may continue to develop further for a little longer. Despite that we remain bullish in the long-term. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI broke into the oversold area for the second time now. We expect its reversal and crossover above 30 points. We expect such an occurrence to be accompanied by a bounce in price. MACD continues to develop bearish structure and it is getting overextended. Stochastic, DM+ and DM- also show bearish conditions. ADX seems to be growing rapidly which suggests that correction nears its end (as peak in ADX often coincides with peak in prevailing trend). Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- show the same conditions. ADX decreases which suggests that trend of higher degree is becoming neutral. Support and resistance Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while the major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Resistance 1 is at 74.21 USD, Resistance 2 is at 75.47 USD and then Resistance 3 is at 76.95 USD. Medium-term resistance is at 69.60 USD. Short-term resistance appears at 69.21 USD and immediate support/resistance sits at 65.11 USD. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Technical analysis update: USOIL/WTI oil (30th November 2021)In our previous idea we noted that we saw short-term and medium-term headwinds for further rise in the price of oil due to ongoing politics between the U.S. and OPEC. We also stated that we expected the OPEC to take countermeasures in response to release of strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. We await tomorrow's OPEC meeting (and with it more insight into the mentioned countermeasures) which we expect to bolster the bullish case for oil in the long-term. We expect these measures to come in the form of less production quotas for cartel members. Price of USOIL fell over 21% within the last 36 days. At the moment, technical indicators point to oversold conditions in the oil markets. We think that the current price is extremely attractive for a long position (re)entry. However, we are very cautious as it is possible that the U.S. and its allies will take actions to offset measures taken by the OPEC. If this is to happen, then we expect the price to continue lower towards 65 USD per barrel. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is oversold. MACD continues to develop bearish structure with no signs of flattening. Stochastic is also bearish. DM+ and DM- indicate a bearish trend with ADX suggesting its strengthening. Overall daily time frame is very bearish. However, some indicators reached an oversold condition already which suggests that end of correction might be in sight. Though, all depends on further measures by the U.S. and OPEC. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bearish. Similarly, Stochastic and MACD are also bearish. DM+ and DM- show bearish condition, however, ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend of higher degree is weakening. It is possible that the price will move in range for a while before a new trend will begin. Support and resistance Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while the major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Short-term resistance appears at 69.60 USD. Resistance 1 is at 74.21 USD, Resistance 2 is at 75.47 USD and then Resistance 3 is at 76.95 USD. Strong support also appears at 65 USD from a psychological standpoint. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (2nd November 2021)USOIL ceased its decline at 80.62 USD per barrel just three days ago. Since then USOIL reversed to the upside and now it trades around 84.25 USD per barrel. In our previous two ideas we noted that despite correction in price we would remain bullish on oil in medium-term and long-term. In addition to that, we noted correction in price could serve as good (re)entry opportunity for long position. Demand continues to pick up while recovery progresses further; and we continue to maintain bullish stance as we expect price to climb even higher. We would like to set new short-term price target to 85 USD per barrel. Our medium-term price target is 87.50 USD while our long-term price target remains 90 USD. Technical analysis RSI is bullish as it strives to penetrate 70 points into overbought territory. If it manages to do so, then we expect such occurence to be accompanied by further rise in price. Stochastic is also bullish, however, MACD is bearish. DM+ and DM- remain bullish. Although, ADX started to decline slightly which suggests that trend is weakening. Overall we are bullish on USOIL. Support and resistance Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD. Short-term support sits at 82.50 USD and Support 1 lies at 80 USD. Support 2 appears at 76.95 USD while Support 2 lies at 74.21 USD. Then major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Our latest idea on USOIL from 28th October 2021: Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
15
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (7th October 2021)In our last idea we pointed out that RSI reached overbought condition and that such occurence is often followed by correction. We also noted that correction would drag price towards 75 USD per barrel. In addition to that we said that we would remain bullish even if correction took place. We continue to maintain that bullish stance. We actually think that current price is very attractive for investors as we expect eventual resumption of uptrend followed by retest of resistance at 79.76 USD. Our short-term price target remains 80 USD, medium-term price target 82 USD and long-term price target 90 USD. Fundamental analysis Recently OPEC decided not to boost prodcution further which is very positive fundamental development for oil worldwide. Several media news outlets reported that it is very likely that OPEC could not increase its production even if it wanted to because it lacks capacity to do so. Demand continues to pick up and we expect this trend to prevail over following 12 months. United Kingdoms continue to report shortages of fuel at its gas stations. Natural gas continues to grind higher altogether with oil while there is increasing talk of strong winter for 2021. Technical analysis RSI reversed from overbought condition and it currently points in bearish direction. We will observe whether it starts to flatten which would suggest that correction ceased. MACD continues to be bullish at the moment, however, it is losing momentum. Stochastic remains bullish. DM+ and DM- suggest that bullish trend is still present. ADX reversed but it continues to have bullish structure. We will observe it closely and we will look whether it manages to resume growth. Support and resistance Closest area of interest is 75 USD while short-term support appears below that at 74.21 USD. We will observe whether these two levels will manage to stop further selling pressure. Another two areas of interest are at 71.46 USD and 65.11 USD. Below that is major support level at 61.76 USD. Short-term resistance sits at 76.95 USD while another resistance above that lies at recent high of 79.76 USD Recent track record Here we did set short-term price target to 77.50 USD which was reached on 4th October 2021. Here we did set short-term price target to 75 USD which was reached on 27th September 2021. Here we did set short-term price target to 72.50 USD which was reached on 15th September 2021. Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
8
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (27th September 2021)USOIl reached our short-term price target overnight. We continue to be bullish on WTI oil. Because of that we would like to change medium-term price target of 77.50 USD to short-term price target. Similarly, we would like to change long-term price target of 80 USD to medium-term price target. We would also like to set new long term price target to 90 USD per barrel. Technical analysis RSI continues to evolve its bullish structure. We will observe RSI closely in the following days and we will look for crossover into overbought territory (above 70 points). We expect this phenomenon to be accompanied by strong upside price action. Stochastic is also bullish as it oscillates in the upper area. In addition to that MACD is bullish too. ADX contains low value which suggests that trend is very weak at the moment. Despite that we remain bullish on USOIL and we expect bullish trend to resume soon. Support and resistance Short-term support sits at 73.11 USD. Major support level appears at 61.58 USD while major resistance level appears at 76.95 USD. Here is our previous thought from 15th September 2021: Here we did set short-term price target to 75 USD which was reached today overnight. We also layed out bullish case for USOIL. Here is our previous thought from 3rd September 2021: Here we did set short-term price target of 72.50 USD which was subsequently reached in two weeks. Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
4