Some thinking on WTIModified Schiff Pitchfork (red) off 2008 high with pivots on 2009 low and 2013 high
From 2013 through 2020, the median line has provided support for 2 large areas of tests
With hard rejection off line in 2020, price now moving back to upper parallel
One option is the upper parallel holds then price moves back down.
A second option is that price breaks through upper parallel to test the 2021 R1 pivot. Off this test, price could return to test the break of the red upper parallel (possibly the R2 camarilla pivot for 2021) to set up a drive to the untested vol POC from 2014 drop.
Tracking the volume areas of the past 7 years (pink regions) shows that the 2014 region was tested once from underneath at the 2018 high. This bottom of this vol area aligns with the 2021 R1 pivot noted above and could provide additional factor to resistance at this level.
An upsloping PF (blue) was added off the 2020 low and the top that was selected in 2013. Using the placement of this PF and aligning to above scenario, price could spike through the upsloping median line and then pull back to test it.
Crudewti
CRUDE OIL BEAR MARKET MIGHT HAVE ENDEDAs you can see from the Weekly chart, bear market might have ended for crude oil.
With Elliott Wave model, i have counted the corrective wave started from July 2008 to mid April 2020( indicated by the oil crash event amidst pandemic).
A complete zigzag corrective wave is done with prolonged ending diagonal of impulsive wave C.
If this model is correct, then I expect a bull market rally in the next decade.
Pay attention to the top of previous wave 4 @ 28.94 that act as a major resistance. For conservative long term investor, consider to enter long if the price breach those level. Stop loss adjusted at the bottom of wave C @ 11.00.
This counting is invalid once price make new low, below wave C.
Hope this analysis can help you in the future market, please consider like and share to help me make another elliott wave analysis.
Possible Expanding Diagonal in Crude Oil (Elliott Wave Analysis)It seems that Crude is in the last stages of what I see as an Expanding Ending Diagonal. I will wait for confirmation however as this market has already fallen below the 61.8% mark of the previous up swing.
I will update further as this market progresses.
Confluence buy area on crude. Long swing trade. Hello again friends!
Today we see that price crossing into a potential reversal area where we see many things have been lining up. First and foremost, notice this steady uptrend. Price has come down in the form of a complex pullback. A fibonacci inversion was taken from the center of this pullback and price has just hit the all-important 1.618 extension, given the context. In addition, a double bottom is starting to form in the same area as a bullish bat pattern completion.
Stops are taken 1 ATR from the swing low, which will equate to roughly 2 ATR from the minimum allowable entry candle area to unsure nothing less than a one to one risk to reward ratio on the first contract. The targets are based on a projection of .382 and .618 retracements based on our knowledge of stops and the absolute minimum area which we can become involved in. Should target one be attained, stops then roll to break even on the second half of the position.
Also noteworthy is the possible hidden divergence (note the blue lines) between price action and my oscillator. This is nice, as we use hidden divergence in connection with trend continuation, which is what we have here.
I do require an entry reason to execute orders. No limit orders here. I will require RSI to enter an oversold condition, and a bullish engulfing candle, or a higher high higher close candle. I will also start to peek around my lower trading time frame that my plan allows for down on the 15 minute to see if I can time my entry in a similar fashion. As of this writing, I'm showing a combined technical score on this bullish trade of 6.
Stay thirsty my friends,
Benny Manieri
The bearish MYesterday, as expected, breakout was bring the price near 46$ and then his weakness bring the price short.
Now I can see a really bearish pattern: the M bearish. The confirmation of this pattern must be searched at this support breakouts:
River and Moving Average 50 - 44.80/44.60
Support Moving Average 144 - 43.50
Support Moving Average 288 - 42
Now this supports are important but if break down we can increase the shorts, else we cover long.
Because in this days speculation and volatility is very high.
Trade safe.