CCL - Big base break-out for Carnival
Carnival is breaking out big base starting early 2022 to 2024.
Recently Carnival released their earnings for their Q3 2024 (June-July-August), which is the best quarter for the industry.
The company made 1.74 bln USD net income from 7.9 bln USD revenue in the quarter.
For the current fiscal year, Carnival is expected to post earnings of $1.28 per share on $25.13 billion in revenues.
For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $1.62 per share on $26.03 billion in revenues.
Citi analysts in a research note said the cruising industry is experiencing strong web traffic and positive pricing trends, particularly for bookings in 2025.
They additionally raised Carnival's price target to $28 from $25
In terms of valuation, the stock currently trades at 15.8X current fiscal year EPS estimates, while peer industry average is 17.8X
Cruisestocks
Carnival Cruise Lines | CCL | Time to go long in the teens?Carnival Cruise Lines NYSE:CCL , like NYSE:NCLH , never fully recovered from the 2020 market crash. From a technical analysis standpoint, this stock may be poised for a nice upward trend soon after consolidating in my selected primary simple average. It is currently in my personal buy zone in the high teens.
Target #1 - $28.00
Target #2 - $49.00
Target #3 - $62.00 (very long-term)
RCL Grinding Up On Strong Resistance
RCL experiencing declining volume, and being highly leveraged in a tumultuous macro environment leads me to believe this recent rally in price will struggle to overcome the strong resistance zone of 93-99 a share.
Retreat back to 65 support seems probable in the intermediate term.
As always, this is not financial advice. Good luck!
Norwegian Cruise to get back above water?When's the last time anyone has looked at cruise lines?
I remember back in 2020 cruise lines were the "value trade". It worked for a while after the pandemic drop... the price of these stocks recovered. NYSE:NCLH did a recovery back to the 50% Retracement Resistance of the drop itself... but could not quite get its head back above water. Yet another in a long list of examples of why 50% Retracements are so powerful.
The price action over the last year has setup higher lows and higher highs. This gives some confidence to a true recovery.
This morning I was alerted to the stock by an opening 30 minute price spike and false breakout of the last week's range. This sets up a good reward/risk trade with an entry at 12.51.
Carnival. Another delay in recovery.Carnival Corporation is the world's largest travel company, founded in 1972. Today it is the leading cruise operator serving nearly half of the world's cruise travel market. Has a global presence in North America, Australia, Europe and Asia. It operates a fleet of more than 100 ships and owns a portfolio of leading global, regional and national brands of economy and premium cruise lines such as Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, AIDA and others. Carnival Cruise Line, the most popular global brand, carries more than 5 million guests every year. In addition to cruise operations, the company owns Alaska's leading tour company - Holland America Princess Alaska Tours.
➡️ The cruise industry is still unprofitable in the context of the Covid-19, as the tourist flow does not have time to recover due to regular new pandemic waves. And now the positive expectations for next year are beginning to fade - the company faced a large number of cancellations for flights in the coming months, which is caused by a lot of positive pre-cruise tests. Demand for flights in the second half of 2022 is also below expectations at the moment.
➡️ On the chart, you can see that the growth after the spring collapse of 2020 developed in zigzags. Structurally, the movement is similar to the leading diagonal, which may indicate that the low set in early April 2020 is the starting point for a new strong trend.
In the decline from $31 that began in June 2021, I highlight the emerging single zigzag with a potential diagonal in wave {c}of2. The movement develops within the channel formed by the Schiff’s Pitchfork, the borders and the middle line of which are confirmed by the price reaction.
It is logical to expect the end of the correction in the range of $13 - $17 , because that’s where the main volumetric zone of all previous growth is located.
📌 Alternatively, we can assume that correction 2 ended at the end of 2021 at the level of $16.5 , and now we are seeing some starting waves within wave 3 already. in my opinion, it is more doubtful structurally (wave {a} then should be a zigzag, which it does not look like) and is not at all supported by the fundamental that I cited at the beginning.
📉 I assume that the fall may stop at $13-13.5 , where the lower boundary of the pitchfork and the Fibonacci correction level of 0.618 also pass.
➖ Cancellation of the scenario when the price rises above $23.3 .
Where Carnival Cruise Line stands with the Delta VariantWith the increase in cases for the delta variant to coronavirus, the question remains: will certain industries suffer again and will their stocks fall?
In the case of Carnival Cruise Lines (one of the larger cruise lines by market cap) my prediction, short and sweet is yes, yes their stock seems poised to fall.
Looking at the 5 year chart for $CCL NYSE:CCL and zooming out we can see that in the last 15 months, the trend for the stock price has begun to form a channel up pattern, which generally has a bearish breakdown once it moves past the supporting price (bottom line). What is an event that could be enough to have $CCL break the support on this channel up? The fear mongering, uncertainty and future mandates that may arise with the delta variant
Is this the time to buy the dip?
For investors that are bullish for future cruise lines rebounding, your dip buying entry is close, but we are not there yet in the case of $CCL. While the candles have moved below the 20, 50, 100 and even 200 EMA (generally a good time to buy a dip), the MACD indicator at the bottom is still right around the y axis (yellow square). In my opinion, the best time to enter for a long term hold in this scenario would be if the candlesticks above fell through the support and broke down, and the MACD indicator in the yellow square fell far below the y axis of the MACD histogram.
CCL Big Picture (BIG Picture) LevelsSo I did a bigger picture and yes normally our focus is on penny stocks. But that also involves looking at broader trends. So, travel and leisure penny stocks, for instance. Sub $5 stocks like TRVG LTRPA and AHT are all at "risk" of pressure from negative sentiment in larger market trends. CCL has been somewhat a bellwether for certain travel & leisure penny stocks and right now appears to have its trend echoed with stocks like the ones mentioned here.
I took the Fib retracement out to feb 2018 when CCL reached its 3-year high and used last year's low as the anchor. What was interesting was how CCL traded around the 786 level. Coincidentally, it has been an interesting area for the stock and wouldn't you know it, though it broke below its 200DMA, it's back to testing the 786 fib line. With Biden commenting on the state of the economy next week, all technical levels could be important to monitor. In this case, the 786 fib seems to be a good one to pay attention to right now.