BTC UPDATE - DAY TRADE MODE This is in series of charts. Linked below.
Its a long trend with a few brief layup shorts. You cant be afraid of the short. Its 1/3 of your gains. And keep you from doing a lot of stupid things. Like buying the wrong highs. When you look for shorts for profit, your a much better hodler. Ask yourself who do you know that would be shorting these highs? If you don't know anyone. You do now. These are safe shorts. The stops are simply 1/8th move higher than the entry. And under no circumstances above any of the most recent local highs.
And rebuys are just a few volatile ticks back down. There are plenty of choppy waves coming for the next 2 weeks as we grind higher. Dont be afraid.
Cruptocurrency
MRPH Buying Opportunity Hi. MRPH had a really good run recently but honestly, every good thing must come to an end. MRPH has found some really strong supports at two different levels. Before its next run this can be a good opportunity to get in between two supports.
Stellar idea (retesting some lower levels)Hi fellow traders, here's my idea on XLM. Recently we've seen some rapid gains on Stellar and now we're sliding smoothly into sideways trend. In short-term I am bearish on XLM. Need to stabilize before another leg up.
Comment on your thoughts regarding my idea.
*Not a financial advice
Bitcoin – $60,000 and beyond?There’s a saying the markets have adopted over time: “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” And the cryptocurrency market is no exception. Bitcoin has recently propelled itself to $18,000 – with minimal coverage on the news if we compared its coverage in 2019. However, another rule that I personally go by – If your mum is talking about it, it’s a strong signal to sell. By “Mum,” I mean anyone who generally is not associated with the specific market.
A recent poll done by Maisie Williams, the actress that played Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her 2.7 Million followers whether she should go long Bitcoin. This begs the question, does Bitcoin have any fundamental basis for moving higher?
Bitcoin – hedge for inflation?
Some people believe that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are a natural hedge to inflation. As the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government take out more debt, alongside the Federal Reserve putting particular importance on inflation, many have been concerned about holding fiat currency. However, many firms push away against the notion that Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, much more than a MacBook Pro, or peanut butter is a hedge against inflation.
A couple of months back, Goldman Sachs sent an email out to institutional investors making points that Cryptocurrencies “Do not show evidence of hedging Inflation,” making it one of many firms to push back against this claim. However, it is not to say Bitcoin is not an acceptable alternative asset class to shield against inflation; it is merely less affected by inflation.
Bitcoin – a suitable alternative to Fiat currency?
Many people believe that Bitcoin has excellent qualities for an alternative Currency. However, this is simply not the case. A Currency requires stability in its value, but Bitcoin is anything but stable.
We’ll take the Coffee I buy every morning as an example. For the sake of argument, we will peg the price of Bitcoin to $1 USD at the start of 2019. The price of my Coffee is $4.
Date - Bitcoin to USD - Value of USD - Change BTC
Jan 2020 - $4 - $4
March 2020 - $2.16- $4 - (-54%)
Present - $5.74 - $4 - 187%
(Forgive me for the formatting, cant insert a table)
As you can see, at the start of the year, I could afford to buy that $4 coffee. However, around March, that same $4 worth of Bitcoin is now worth $2.16, which means I would not have been able to afford the $4 coffee.
In comparison to the U.S. Dollar, I purchased that $4 throughout the whole year. I understand this is a flawed test, as we can argue if the price of the Coffee were in Bitcoin, the hypothetical would be reversed. However, with such massive swings, it would be realistic to assume we would get a situation similar to Venezuela, where prices for goods and services fluctuate by the day. This shows that Bitcoin is more similar to Gold or commodities in general.
Bitcoin – Interbank possibilities?
One appeal with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, is the low transaction costs it has. Transfers from banks from one country to another can incur fees upwards of hundreds of dollars, and possibly, even more, when larger sums of money are transferred. However, with a centralized system, Bitcoin and many cryptocurrencies incur negligible transaction costs.
For example, Silk Road, an organization which sold illegal services over the dark web was raided by the FBI, in which they took Billion’s of dollars of Bitcoin as it was the means they used to transact. It was noted that over $1 Billion USD worth of Bitcoin was transferred from one account to another, incurring a transaction cost of $15.
Cryptocurrencies are definitely a strong substitute for interbank transfers, and we can see that slowly playing out within bigger institutions. Both JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have appointed a new Global Head of Digital Assets, with JP Morgan exploring the possibility of creating its own blockchain similar to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin – “network effect” in play?
Going back to the original paragraph, Maisie Williams’s ponder on whether she should “go long” Bitcoin highlights the general overview of what people think cryptocurrency currently is – as a means to make quick money.
Mike Novogratz, Billionaire, and the Investment Firm Fortress Investment Group’s ex-fund manager stated he believes Bitcoin’s price will hit $65,000 U.S. Dollar. Novogratz said he expects the price first to hit $20,000 before it gets to $65,000 due to a “network effect,” in which there are a ton of new buyers and lowers supply, “So YES, but it.” In other words, he is currently long Bitcoin and wants the “Bigger fool” theory to take place to push his position up.
Bitcoin – Technicals play well with the Coin
Currently, Bitcoin retraced from its $18,500 high to $17,584 in the span of a couple of hours. It is currently approaching a strong psychological level of $17,000. A move below this alongside risk off sentiment may see a move to a 100% retracement level to $13,914. Bulls may see this as an opportunity to move higher to a 161.8% Fib level, above its all time high. If it breaks this level, bulls may tacket it to levels never seen before,
However, Novogratz’s theory makes sense and may be the main driver pushing prices higher. Therefore, there is a case to be made that its time to buy a couple of those Bitcoins.
Forecast ETHETH / USD quotes are trading at 224.50 and continue to move as part of the correction and the downward channel. Ethereum cryptocurrency capitalization at the time of the publication of the forecast is $ 25,289,685,200. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term Ethereum bearish trend. Prices are testing the area between the signal lines down, which indicates pressure from sellers and the potential continuation of the fall. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to increase the value of the coin and test the resistance level near the area of 229.55. Where again we should expect a rebound and the continuation of the Ethereum rate drop with a potential target below the level of 207.55.
An additional signal in favor of falling ETH / USD quotes will be a test of a broken trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel. Cancellation of the option of falling cryptocurrency will be a strong growth and the breakdown of the level of 240.05. This will indicate a breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel and continued growth of ETH / USD quotes above the level of 255.05. With the breakdown of the support area and closing of quotes below the level of 215.05, we should expect confirmation of the development of a fall in Ethereum.
Thus, the ETH / USD forecast for Ethereum on July 3, 2020 implies an attempt to correct and test the resistance area near the level of 229.55. Where can we expect a rebound and the continuation of the fall of the ETH / USD cryptocurrency to the area below the level of 207.55. An additional signal in favor of reducing Ethereum will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the option of falling digital currency will be a breakdown of the area of 240.05. Which will indicate continued growth with a potential target above the level of 255.05.
DGBBTC | Ascending Triangle | Apex | Resistance Cluster Todays Analysis – DGBBTC – Trading within a multi-month ascending triangle, nearing its apex as support and resistance converge.
Points to consider:
- Resistance cluster
- Higher lows - apex
- 200 EMA – visual guide
- Low volume
- RSI above 50 – higher low projection
- Stochastics overbought
DGBBTC unable to break and hold above daily resistance after multiple failed attempts over a multi-month period indicates a strong resistance cluster.
Price action has been forming a higher low projection as it convergence into daily resistance. A break in either direction is imminent as price coils into its apex.
DGB respecting the 200 EMA, allowing it to act as a dynamic support. Price trading above the EMA is perceived bullish; breaking below considered bearish.
Volume has been declining and remaining below average. Historically, an inflow of volume has coincided with bullish price action, indicative of an influx being probable at the retest of daily resistance.
RSI breaking above 50, trading in a higher low projection indicating increasing strength in the market. Stochastics are overextended, although they may remain there for some time, momentum has been stored to the downside.
Overall, in my opinion, further price development will determine a directional bias.
An S/R flip re-test of daily resistance with volume follow through validates a conservative entry for a long trade with technical target of structural resistance. However, breaking below trend support, price will likely retrace to structural support.
What are your thoughts?
If you’ve read this far - thank you for following my work!
And as always,
Focus on you, and the money will too!