Plan Your Trade 6-28 - Today Is The Big CRUSH DayThis continuation of my Plan Your Trade video series highlights the potential price rotation we'll see today with the big CRUSH pattern. Next week, I believe, will result in a substantial rally phase throughout the week of July 4th.
Today's big CRUSH pattern will likely result in a fairly deep downward price move in early trading, followed by a period of basing/stalling before we may see a fairly strong rally phase/squeeze into the end of trading today.
These types of price swings are fantastic for day traders and intraday swing trading.
Watch the video today and prepare for next week. Overall, nothing has changed. Price is rotating into a rally phase ahead of Q2:2024 earnings.
Learn how my SPY Cycle Patterns can help you plan and prepare for market direction and trends.
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Go make some money today.
Crush
WTI - BEARISH OUTLLOKOPEC, deflecting blame for the oil market crash, slightly increased its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 2.46 million barrels per day. The group's aggressive production cuts, aiming for $100 per barrel, face skepticism. Market bears challenge OPEC's strategy, selling consistently for three weeks. Questions persist about OPEC+ members responding with additional production cuts. Despite concerns, OPEC's report downplays worries about demand, referencing exaggerated negativity around Chinese demand. In the market, WTI rose to $78.26 per barrel, up 1.4%, but ended the previous week down 4.1%. Brent settled at $82.54, up 1.4%, with Brent concluding the last week down 3.8%. The global crude benchmark also experienced an 11% decline in October.
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The Bollinger Bands are Squeezing the Juice out of GrainsSoybean short swing trade:
The Bollinger Bands width has narrowed to 2.56% of price which is a level not seen in over a year. A new 6-month or greater low in bandwidth indicates that a volatility squeeze breakout is likely upon us. Similar volatility squeeze situations exist in wheat and corn but they both broke to the downside significantly last week. Wheat was -6.42% on the week, corn -4.21%, and soybeans lagged at -0.20%.
Soybean price reached the lower parabolic SAR which is a signal to short the volatility squeeze. The stop loss is positioned at the upper SAR for this trade. A stop above the 20-day SMA would be more conservative.
The overarching price pattern is a rising wedge with what appears to be a fake breakdown in late January. If we hold below the 20-day SMA it will roll over in 3 days.
Wheat shows a similar setup already occurred a couple weeks ago but it was a head fake to the upside. There is risk in wheat being at the recent low pivot for the 3rd time. It could moon from here like gold did after making a triple bottom. Note the gigantic head and shoulders.
Wheat:
Gold:
Note the lack of a Bollinger Band squeeze at the pre-moon triple bottom:
Corn also shows a similar setup, but there was no head fake, it just broke down out of the band squeeze.
Corn:
Soybean Crush spread:
It appears positioned for a big move in either direction. Seems likely to bounce back up in concert with a soybean drop. It’s in volatility squeeze territory as well.
Oil:
The mother of all commodities has an inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern suggesting more downside:
tldr; short soybeans
Soybean Crush Processor Margin w CalcThe soybean crush spread calculates how much profit a soybean processing plant can generate by crushing a bushel of soybeans into soybean meal and oil. The profit margin is that profit number divided by the revenue which is the price of the meal and oil outputs. I prefer to look at profit margin as opposed to just profit as it adjusts for large market fluctuations over time and is more meaningful from a business and analysis perspective.
I was not able to come up with any tradable theories based on this analysis. I added live cattle and lean hogs to try and figure out what’s going on with soybean meal reaching multi-year highs this week. It appears that move is correlated with live cattle reaching new highs. Soybean meal is rising while soybean oil is falling. Soybeans are pretty flat although slowly rising. I will continue to monitor this spread for clues about future soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil movements. If anyone has any insights on crush spreads, please share.
The calculation of the spread is shown below:
EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT ON LTC !!!!!!! Hello, everybody! If you like the concept, don't forget to like and follow it.
Ltc reached its limit in the ascending channel as it continued to rise.I anticipate a significant asset price decline once the price reaches the channel as the RSI and BB both indicate extremely overbought conditions (1H and 30m TFs).
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For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them.
Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns...
9-19: Inside/BreakAway
9-20: BreakAway
9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion)
9-22: Inside/BreakAway
9-23: Momentum Rally
*9-24: RARE - Major Reversal
*9-25: N/A
9-26: Breakdown201
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish)
* = weekend
I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week.
But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend.
The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH.
Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings.
We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
BTC analysis on the chart Toggle Log Scale chart As the market has proven, there is nothing impossible, and we all remember the crush of Bitcoin since its inception, and there are some that the market took many years to recover from,
so you must have a plan to exploit the market with all its possibilities …
Let's see
We all watch the bitcoin trend on the log scale and see how with every touch of the top we have a touch of the bottom since the launch of bitcoin until this time, but it was not possible to predict the current price at that time using this chart, and it is also not possible to predict the price action of bitcoin by A clear analysis for everyone and is in front of them all the time... The inhabitants of the universe will not suddenly become rich!! The rich people will not allow you to be like him...
Let us analyze the in detail: let us go back together to the beginning of Bitcoin. In the first picture, you can see the Bitcoin trend since its inception to 2013. If we assume that we want to draw what we see now in a large way on the websites and pages of analysts, it is expected to rise to touch the upper logic of the trend ... And indeed the market rose Perfectly respecting the analysis and making a strong movement when touching the green square then??!! What happened you can see with red candles.. the price reached 279 with a 77% drop from the last top and a 33% drop from the price in the green box, which is an ideal entry logic for most of those who followed this analysis
ibb.co
The same thing was repeated with higher accuracy in later years, as you can see, and it always gives the price an ideal movement for an entry that is opposite to the future market movement, as you can see in the picture No. 2 in the green box
ibb.co
But the question is, can you draw these curves in the past?? Were the traders at that time able to draw these shapes and become rich because of this line?? Probably not, because by the time the figure is complete, it is nearing its end, because straight lines need two or more points to draw them, but curves want lots and lots of points to define...
The bottom line is that we can see the past accurately, but we cannot see the future... The only thing that is always constant in the financial markets is that you will only imagine that you are winning and getting rich, but in reality you will always find yourself a loser... Because at the time you have to buy, you will not be allowed Horror and fear that you imagine yourself rich... All that will come to your mind is the fear of losing and losing only... The descent is for the rich only, and the rise is for the idiots only...
The whales at the bottom are always calm and move slowly and the fish at the top move quickly and want to grow quickly, at the end of the day the whale rises from the bottom to eat all their tiredness and returns to its place quietly looking for another fish... and this is what we have seen in the past two days
Soon you will find a lot of traders quitting the market and swearing it is a scam…
And after a few months of this case you will find eruptions …
ibb.co
But this does not prevent you from being ready for everything... For example, the last picture in the two green squares... Could it be a repetition of the scenario...?
None of the above is a reason for you to enter into short or long positions... and it is not investment advice.. that's what I saw on the chart... my glasses are probably dirty I will clean them up and come back to you later... Let's be careful and smart.
Bitcoin Crushed, That's called bearish Divergence played-out!!Technical analysis:
Welcome to this quick update everyone, This was something unexpected. A 19% price drop from $52956 to $42900 is no joke, thats called bearish divergence played-out and A complete market manipulation. The drop in BTC price has certainly taken a bearish turn forming two important supports. Support 1 is at $46700 from where the BTC price is bouncing back, currently. Support 2 is at $42900, a strong support where BTC left a long shadow.
The most worried part is BTC has gone down below the 200 MA. Last time when BTC broke down below the 200 MA in 4 hours TF was on 12th May 2021 (112 days ago). That wan the time when BTC fell almost 50%.
If BTC do not show any sign of bounce back from Support 1 then it'll likely test Support 2 and then further below.
In the daily time frame, BTC is still above the 200 MA ($46200). In order to stay bullish, BTC must close above the 200 MA and show some bounce.
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Oil prices fall to historic lows as West Texas futures dropThe price on the May futures contract for West Texas crude that is due to expire Tuesday fell into negative territory — minus $37.63 a barrel. That’s right, sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands. The reason: With the pandemic bringing the economy to a standstill, there is so much unused oil sloshing around that American energy companies are running out of room to store it. And if there’s no place to put the oil, no one wants a crude contract that is about to come due.
Underscoring just how acute the concern over the lack of storage is, the price on the futures contract due a month later settled at $20.43 per barrel. That gap between the two contracts is by far the biggest ever.
“The May crude oil contract is going out not with a whimper but a primal scream,” said Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian and vice chairman of IHS Markit Ltd.
“Refiners are rejecting barrels at a historic pace, and with U.S. storage levels sprinting to the brim, market forces will inflict further pain until either we hit rock bottom or COVID clears, whichever comes first, but it looks like the former,"
Wall Street Might Bleed-out On Corona FearMajor U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Wednesday. The Nasdaq closed up 15.16 points or 0.2 percent at 8,980.77, the Dow slid 123.77 points or 0.5 percent to a four-month closing low of 26,957.59 and the S&P 500 fell 11.82 points or 0.4 percent to a nearly three-month closing low of 3,116.39.
On the economic front, the Commerce Department's Durable Good Orders for January will be released at 8.30 am ET. The consensus for new orders is a decline of 1.2 percent, while it was up 2.4 percent.
Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be issued at 8.30 am ET. The consensus is for an increase of 2.1 percent, unchanged from the prior year. GDP price for the quarter on quarter is expected to increase 1.4 percent.
DAX Index Overview / Germany 30 Prices
DAX 30 | CLINGING ONTO SUPPORT
The DAX fails to escape the equity carnage as the closes the week with losses of 2.9%. After the Fed provided an emergency cut, all eyes will be on the ECB as they look to announce a series of measures to aid the Eurozone. On the technical front, the DAX remains weak with bounces proving short-lived. That said, 11,500 has held thus far for the DAX, although with risks remaining tilted to further declines, eyes will be on the July 2019 lows.
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 10168.69 10297.61 10403.52 10532.44 10638.35 10767.27 10873.18
Fibonacci 10297.61 10387.32 10442.73 10532.44 10622.15 10677.56 10767.27
Camarilla 10444.85 10466.38 10487.90 10532.44 10530.96 10552.48 10574.01
Woodie's 10157.19 10291.86 10392.02 10526.69 10626.85 10761.52 10861.68
DeMark's - - 10350.56 10505.96 10585.39
HCR - Could it reclaim $5?Hi-Crush Inc., formerly Hi-Crush Partners LP, is an integrated producer, transporter, marketer and distributor of monocrystalline sand, a specialized mineral that is used as a proppant to manage the recovery rates of hydrocarbons from oil and natural gas wells. Its reserves consist of northern white sand, a resource in Wisconsin and limited portions of the upper Midwest region of the United States. It owns and operates a portfolio of sand facilities with on-site wet and dry plant assets, including direct access to the United States railroads for distribution to in-basin terminals. It owns and operates a network of strategically located terminals and an integrated distribution system throughout North America, including its PropStream integrated logistics solution, which delivers proppant into the blender at the well site.
SHORT INTEREST 8.56M 06/28/19
P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items)
2.54
Recommendations: HOLD
Price Target $3.10