THE WEEK AHEAD: M, CLDR, CRWD EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, QQQTHE WEEK AHEAD:
EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS:
M (41/103/September 18.7%): Announces Wednesday before market open.
Potential Plays:
September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 1.30 as of Friday close, .33 at 25% max.
September 18th 5/7/7/9 iron fly, paying 1.07 as of Friday close, .27 at 25% max.
Look to take profit at 25% max.
CLDR (68/116/September 20.1%): Announces Wednesday after market close.
Potential Plays:
September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 2.60 as of Friday close, .65 at 25% max.
September 18th 9/13/13/17 iron fly, paying 2.13 as of Friday close, .53 at 25% max.
Look to take profit at 25% max.
CRWD (32/74/September 15.0%): Announces Wednesday after market close.
Potential Plays:
September 18th 101/145 short strangle, paying 4.03 as of Friday close, 2.01 at 50% max.
September 18th 100/105/140/145. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to put on a setup that pays at least one-third the width of the wings in credit.
Comments: Not a ton is shaking next week for options liquid underlyings, but here are what appear to me to be the best candidates for volatility contraction plays. Naturally, I'm just preliminarily pricing these out to see whether they're potentially worthwhile, and actual strikes are likely to change somewhat running into earnings as price moves.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED/OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (45/56/15.2%)
XLE (24/39/11.2%)
GDX (22/47/13.3%)
GDXJ (21/58/15.7%)
EWZ (17/44/12.3%)
XOP (13/50/14.1%)
GDXJ is paying the most as a function of stock price (15.7%), followed by SLV (15.2%), XOP (14.1%), and GDX (13.3%).
WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING:
The GDXJ October 16th 15/75 short strangle: 2.15, 3.6% as a function of stock price,
The SLV October 16th 22/32 short strangle: .97, 3.6% as a function of stock price.
The XOP October 16th 45/63 short strangle: 1.84, 3.5% as a function of stock price.
The GDX October 16th 38/47 short strangle: .84, 2.0% as a function of stock price.
Comments: I've already got a miners play on, so am likely to avoid getting into another closely correlated underlying here.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (29/32/8.8%)
IWM (22/28/7.6%)
EFA (17/20/5.6%)
SPY (12/22/5.3%)
WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING:
The QQQ October 16th 257/320 short strangle is paying 6.51, 2.2% as a function of stock price.
The IWM October 16th 140/170 short strangle, 2.93, 1.9%.
The EFA October 16th 60/69 short strangle, .93, 1.4%.
The SPY October 16th 317/391 short strangle, 4.95, 1.4%.
Comments: In the IRA, I've been mechanically selling 45 days 'til expiry puts at the two times expected move strike (basically, the 16 delta) and will pretty much continue to do so until 30-day drops below 20%. There's always hesitancy to continue to do this at successive all-time-highs, and, yes, it is likely I will be assigned shares at some point in a >2 times expected move sell-off, after which I'll proceed to cover. That being said, I've got an inordinate amount of undeployed buying power after all the acquisitional short put ladders I put on in the sell-off have come off; I'd rather take some risk here to earn "something," all while keeping a reasonable amount of dry powder free to take advantage if we get another one of those bodice rippers we had in mid-March. This week, I'll follow the implied volatility, and as of Friday close, that was in the QQQ's.
DIVIDEND EARNERS:
XLU (21/23/7.1%)
EWA (20/24/7.0%)
TLT (18/19/4.8%)
EFA (17/20/5.6%)
EWZ (17/44/12.3%)
IYR (17/24/6.5%)
HYG (17/14/2.8%)
SPY (16/22/5.3%)
EMB (11/11/2.7%)
The Brazilian exchange-traded fund leads the pack for the umpteenth week in a row, with XLU and EWA in distant second and third places. I'm fine with continuing to hit EWZ via acquisitional short put over and over again if that's where the implied volatility leads, but, yes, it's kind of getting old.
For what it's worth: The 2 times expected move EWZ October 16th 28 short put is paying .36 per contract as of Friday close (1.2% as a function of stock price).
Key: The first number in parentheses is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price that the specified monthly expiry at-the-money short straddle is paying.
CRWD
$CRWD ~ make or break candleI'm new to this, but testing out some theories.
Hot SaaS stocks cooled down last week after earnings -- even strong postings like $DDOG crashed. $CRWD's four hour candle needs to backtest and re-enter channel and nullify a possible H&S pattern, but risks dropping and filling Memorial Day gap around $87-88 where it will find strong volume support. If it re-enters channel, it opens up upside to $125-$127 in the next few weeks.
$CRWD Diverging from RSIBears making a move on $CRWD with Divergence at the highs from the RSI indicator. Friday's price action took out a previous low giving me the confidence to short this stock.
$CRWD: $75 Short Target ExpectedFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or at face value. As always this is on opinion basis. Also, as of the time I am making this analysis, there may be a conflict of interest in the fact that I don't hold any CrowdStrike stock and may or may not be tied to software competing against them in their market segmentation. That being said, let me get into my key points in the most unbiased way I can. I believe realistically, even though CrowdStrike is below its peak point, the stock is very early into the market and already performing quite well in general. I do believe, it is about to pass the $75 price point given its large market spread and more people giving it buy ratings over sell ratings. It also seems to have some potential for a long hold position, but I am yet to say for certain.
CRWD - 4/20/2020CRWD - Both lines are above the cloud and the belt cloud shape is beautiful, smooth and silky! Last week, there were unusual option activities buy on $70 calls. This morning, some huge buys on weekly 4/24 $75 calls. The chart shows CRWD will get $75 very quick. So as PANW, upside calls on $210.. So, cybersecurity sector?? Puts on COUP though..
CrowdStrike -Triangle BreakoutCrowdstrike is moving upwards as analyst DA Davidson upgrades to a fair value estimate of $75 from $58.
Coincidentally, we are breaking out of a triangle formation.
CRWD should pop higher?I like the look of CRWD here. It's been crawling along above the 8 sma for a while. Volume is increasing. I bet this pops higher soon.
Long CRWD - Exiting Complex Correction into Wave 3 CRWD has been in a squeeze-like range for roughly a month following the run up beginning mid-December. IMO it will exit the current expanding wedge and into Wave 3 with my PT at $73.46. Above $65 I'm long via calls. It could retest the bottom Trend Line before pushing higher. This is a well-known name and an increasingly institutionally-owned name. As always due your own due-dilligence!
CRWD – Bullish Breakout, Bullish EMA Cross & 10WeekMAActively trading in CRWD. See entry details below.
Bullish pattern breakout with cyber-warfare benefits from Iran issue. www.bloomberg.com
Trade Entry
Jan. 10 Expiry - 54.5/57.5 Put Credit Spread.
Risk $120. Reward $180.
Credit of $1.80 or more. CRWD above $57.50 at expiry keeps entire $180 credit.
Exit at 50% profit or your risk tolerance. Keep if CRWD looks to be over $57.50 at expiry.
4 day hold.
Stops – $52.58 consider exit. Below $51.79 we lose the 10Week cross, exit for sure.
Chart Details
Flat bottom wedge is a bullish pattern.
Price has broken out bullish. Full bodied daily candle with small topping tail tells me price wants to go higher.
Bullish EMA cross on Daily view with 10WeekMA bullish price cross. This always provides positive returns on a weekly basis when both EMA and 10Week cross occur.
Gaps to fill up to $92.
Price will probably take breaks at previous resistance (pink lines $60 and $69).
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
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Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term.
CRWD - Investors are not too excitedIf investors were excited, it would have double bottomed by now? Therefore, I believe CRWD is in a bear flag. Room to go lower. In addition, the fundamentals are telling me this is still expensive.
Bearish for short term.
Bullish for long term.
CRWDWent slightly positive today +0.1, Relative volume was actually 1.5 from average. Seeing this as a Dead Cat bounce. Relative Option Volume 1.1, Iv Rank is 8.0%, Bullish option flow. Finally, 45.1 RSI, and -7.9% from the 20-day MA. 20-day MS vs 250-day MA is -20.6%
Dec-20 calls for Strike $51 are 0.63
CRWD potential reversal!
CRWD expected to rise up to 1st resistance at 63.68 where it could potentially react off and drop down to 1st support at 51.77.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
CRWD potential reversal!
CRWD expected to rise up to 1st resistance at 63.68 where it could potentially react off and drop down to 1st support at 51.77.
*Disclaimer.*
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Crowdstrike Possibility...Let Me Get My Crystal Ball Out...CRWD Pretty self-explanatory idea on chart. Levels where I think CRWD can go, eventually ending around 130 area. In my opinion likely to see low 70's and possible gap fill before moving on up, in an effort to complete corrective wave. Obviously tons of things can happen to negate this, horrible or outstanding earnings being just one of them. I do like the stock, and look forward to making money on it, whichever way it goes. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
CrowdStrike 1st time earnings Another of the IPO's I really like this year is CRWD, they will report earnings for the first time this Thursday.
Most analysts have a buy rating, with a price target 90$-100$. Meaning 12.5%-25% potential upside.
S&P Failed Breakout of Trading RangeIn a previous post I talked about this being a risky time to buy for a long term investment in the S&P , Emini, SPY , or MES . Despite what the media may want you to believe - this market is no longer in a strong bull trend. If it was, prices would break out strongly above previous highs. But what is happening instead? Prices go mostly sideways to down, signalling bull profit taking.
This is because the strong bulls bought lower; they know what is happening. They do not want to buy high because the risk is too large and the probability is too low. This is also where strong bears start looking to sell and will scale in higher if they need to. They understand the probability is in their favor. What happens when both strong bulls and strong bears sell? Well, there is only one direction for the market to go..
The bulls who bought the all time high (last weeks close) are currently trapped. The bulls who bought the breakout on July 12th are also trapped on the daily chart . This is very similar to the Jan 22, and Sep 17 bull closes. Look and see what happened next. Sharp selloffs as the bulls exit in a panic. It took months for prices to get back to a level where they could get out at break even, and they had to sit through a long enduring pullback in order to avoid a loss. Furthermore they risked money to essentially break even, which is extremely dangerous. This is what is known as the "thank you god price." Where those bulls are thankful just to get out without a significant loss.
If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a bear setup for a wedge reversal and failed bull breakout of a trading range. If it fails, and there is another new all time high, the bears will likely try for a second entry in the coming weeks. In either case, the bulls only have a 40% chance of a strong bull rally and measured move up based on the trading range. The bears have a 60% chance of two legs sideways to down and a test of the middle of the current trading range, or the bottom of the trading range around 2400.
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