Crypotrading
Trading plan for Dec 2020 - April 2021I have been trading for 4 years now, and have been through bull markets and bear markets.
I've learnt a lot about the markets, but I've learnt even more about myself.
Trading will give you incredible self-knowledge, because it tests your emotional relationship with uncertainty.
You have complete creative freedom in an environment where riches and ruins are both in ample supply.
This is why "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas is my bible in this space. You trade against your reflection.
My trading journey looks like this:
2017 - naivety. Permabull, listening to sparkly influencers because they reflected my boundless optimism
2018 - anger, denial, bargaining. Realising that the market doesn't care about your goals or narratives
2019 - questioning. If the markets are chaos, and TA is a bit of a comfort blanket, what CAN I control or influence?
2020 - baby steps towards detachment. I approach 50% of trades with position sizing and risk management
I believe I'm halfway towards being a capable trader at this stage.
+ A good percentage of my setups and analysis bear fruit
+ I don't get emotionally involved with any assets
+ I force myself to consider the best, worst, and 'middle case' scenarios, and WRITE THEM DOWN in advance
Now, when I get rekt, rather than blaming cryptogoober4561 on Twitter, I can look back at my notes and see that I took on the risk and I'm responsible for the outcome. I can see the pattern of failures.
When I win - it's all documented, so my brain can seek out and identify similar opportunities in the markets.
What I DON'T do is just "ape in" on things... that's a lack of confidence in yourself, disguised as "trusting the randomness of the markets".
So what's the missing 50%?
+ I am very impatient, by nature. I get extremely bored by slow-moving setups. I crave dopamine hits
+ I don't believe in myself enough. I put more trust in the opinions and ideas of someone, anyone else
+ I trade for reasons other than making money. I trade because I have a massive chip on my shoulder
Can you see yourself in any of these flaws? These are very common trading mistakes and they impact many traders (if you trade crypto, it's very likely that 3rd one is your biggest disadvantage).
So what's the path forward?
"Discipline equals freedom" - Jocko Willink
Discipline is the only way to debilitate your inner opponent, get out your own way, and win long-term.
I believe that discipline and commitment is the missing ingredient.
So my plan for Dec 2020 - April 2021 is pretty simple:
+ Add funds month on month, with disposable income only. Stop trying to time the market
+ Keep an eye on trends - but stop trying to snipe tops and bottoms
+ Maintain a watchlist of a few assets and a few info sources in macro-crypto, stocks and DeFi
+ Enter into positions on good setups
+ Sell at pre-agreed levels - 30%, 100%, 200%
+ Protect capital by - keeping position sizes small, only risking 1 x position on 1x idea, and using stops
+ Using micro positions on Uniswap where risk management is a myth
Best case, I build up a portfolio that ultimately rides a bull trend.
Worst case, a fair number of my positions dwindle, but I only used funds that would have gone towards beer, clothes I didn't need, gadgets I don't use.
Middle case - and most LIKELY - I make a modest profit, lose out on some big wins and losses (due to set sell points), but ultimately become a disciplined trader OVER TIME
That's the plan.
In terms of WHAT I am trading:
+ Stocks - ETFs and sector leaders. I want to benefit from macro trends
+ Crypto - BTC, ETH and a few smaller positions in promising newcomers with strong narratives
+ DeFi - DEFIPERP asset on FTX, and micro-positions in DeFi assets with an active team + hype
In all cases, I'm looking for chart history, bottoms, or significant dips to support levels.
In terms of how I will distribute capital:
30% Stocks
30% Crypto
10% DeFi
30% Cash
I am going to run this system consistently until April 2021, and then re-assess.
In this time, we may see a crypto rise and crash, stock market boom and bust, but the system will remain the same.
The goal is to become a disciplined trader - and to finally get out of my own way and commit to a system.
Thank you for reading! :)
BTC at long term .786 Fib!We are right at the BTC long term (2017-18 high to 2081-19 low) Fib .786.
Trades around this area will be tight waiting for a push above it.
MANA/BTC Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 IdeaThis is for educational purposes only.
Learning Wyckoff Accumulation Theory and this is what I came up with - my understanding of the Wyckoff Theory.
As always : Do Your Own Research
Bets Bitcoin analysis which will help you !💎BTC/USD🌴FREE UPDATE🌴
- Yello ladies and gentlemen🥂😎
💎#Bitcoin found a resistance exactly at around 11,600$-11,700$ zone.
💎11,000-11,100$ zone will act as a support now. There is a strong Fibonacci retracement level (0.618) and moving average supports levels as well.
💎If we will not be able to hold the 11,000-11,100$ support zone, we can have a S/R flip and BTC will have a big problem.
💎On the other hand, If Bitcoin will hold this major support zone, our bias will turn very bullish and we can view this move just as a natural retracement.
PERL/BTC Do not miss this ride I noticed the max drop percent is around 77% therefore good entry zone has been spotted.
Alts will still go down for a whole month until reaching the bottom of alts. Buy alts in this discounted price, but I see it will drop until it reach 77% down.
link is going to die ?!
🌴FREE COIN ANALYSIS🌴
💎Poor $LINK going to see more blood soon. 4H closed below the swing low. Aligns with the idea of more altcoin blood to come.
💎 BTC dominance seeing a rise over the last 48h ( weekly open ) as Bitcoin seemingly outperforms the market (but does not look good as well no more). Immediately this can be interpreted as bearish for altcoins, especially if we start to see a run-up towards resistance at 64%. Presently, we don't recommend buying new alts as they are likely to keep dropping against bitcoin.
💎Stay safe✅😎
Ripple #XRP BULLS - It's done with the drop COINBASE:XRPUSD
Aftyer lasty nights disappointing drop (Dropped during the early morning hours in the U.S.) The RSI is rounding the corner. Also the 50 MA for the 4 HR time frame is just below. This could be a swing move.
Yes that box is the box I am in on my metatrader4.
Bitcoin back down near support so is it going to base??!!Bitcoin was been hit down lower after buyers could not push prices higher through 12230 and ended getting squeezed out of the action on the break below 11000. Price now needs to hold the longer term MA and build a base around current levels before convincing buyers to have another crack at a another run higher.
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Bitcoin is going to breakout soon ?💎BTC/USD🌴FREE UPDATE🌴
- Yello ladies and gents🍾😎
💎Yesterday, Bitcoin saw a second bounce from the 11,100$ support area discovered by ParadiseTeam.
💎As predicted in the last FREE update, BTC was grinding up after first bounce, broke 20MA weak resistance (yellow line), but got rejected around our strong resistance area peaking at 11,600$. BTC is now again approaching this resistance zone (previously support) at around $11,600-11,700$.
💎We must see a daily candle close above $11,800 to confirm a trend reversal.
💎Today Gold broke-out, with Gold-BTC correlation things looks good; however, until BTC closes above 11,800$, we need to be aware that BTC can correct further; if breaks beneath 11k, we will get a stronger sell signal with projected target around $10,500.
💎So far, BTC failed to close below $11,300 & seems to be forming a base. No major lows have been made, so this is still technically an uptrend, and our bias remains still quite bullish.
ChainLink Parabolic Trajectory
It has been nothing but a crazy run for Link in 2020. Link has been on this upper sloping parabolic trajectory since 2018. When I initially first spotted this curve, I thought, no way that's possible, but here we are with multiple touches and rallies off of the parabolic trajectory.
I don't think Link is going to make a run for the ATH territory just yet but with new real world integration and partnerships, I can see LINK one of the leaders of the next crypto bull market
If anyone is on the sidelines or wanting to add to their position, my first instinct would be to wait for a touch to the upper sloping curve and add a small position. Because that curve isn't sustainable and will break sooner than any of the other support lines. I would look to add a decent size starting at the red level and all the way down to the green line. Happy Trading!
BINANCE:LINKBTC
BTC - Almost cleared major resistance - Levels to WatchAs you can see we have just (tentatively mind you) closed above the 38.2% fib retracement of the major cyclical bear market in 2017-2018 on the weekly timeframe and outside the overhead trendline i identified as the first hurdle Bitcoin would need to overcome, this is undeniably bullish for Bitcoin.
BUT...
We are also smack bang on the 61.8% fib level of the most recent move higher to $14,000 in June 2019, i will be looking for a decisive close above this level on the weekly, before i look for further continued upward pressure.
Should Bitcoin clear this area, the logical place to visit is the 78.6% retracement of the June 2019 move, which coincides with the 2017-2018 50% fib retracement, currently around the $11,500 -$12,000 USD mark.
A decisive move higher from there would target the full retracement to $14,000 USD, after which it is my belief that FOMO may very well begin to feed into itself and from there prior highs (with pullbacks along the way) are the next target.
BUT REMEMBER, we are still looking for a weekly close above the 61.8% fib level to confirm the more macro close above the 38.2%.
P.S. I strongly suggest you go back and read my earlier piece "BTC - No Longer in an Uptrend - What Now?" as this was a rather apt description of the impact that the margin calls within the stock market had on crypto, as well as an accurate forecast that due to the severity of the selling, that this was actually BULLISH, back when Bitcoin was testing the 200 weekly moving average (an excellent entry point i'll add).
-TradingEdge
BTC weekly looks very promising Hi everyone, I hope I never let you down with my predictions but hey I feel every chart I make is a big gamble but most of the time 90% accurate. Just wanted to share this feeling, I do not recommend following any chart I post. ^_^
Ok so here we have DI showing uptrend signal as when the +DI is sloping upward, it is a signal that the uptrend is getting stronger. (source: investopedia) If you look in the green line which is +DI we can see the signals it gave in the previous pumps >I mean 2016 here<.
There is big chance of hitting $14,000 soon, maybe in two weeks from now. But I see the real uptrend will happen in the early fall around Sept.
Wait what if I wanna make a trade now? here's my buying activity from today:
Buy @9,300
Sell @13,800
Buy @10,900
Sell @15,200
Buy @13,000
Sell @19,800
Buy @17,500
Sell @ 200,000
BTC sell/short. Divergence. Target 7850 and lower!Bitcoin has now put in an RSI and MACDH divergence on the 1HR timeframe with a high volume sell candle. If we zoom out further we can see that we are in a rising wedge channel which is a reversal indicator and we have now just put in a lower high on the 4 hr charts. Both bearish signs. We may also be seeing a double top here. Furthermore this looks like a breakout fakeout of the descending trend line over many months. All in all a lot of bearish confluence with lower highs after lower highs. We have some support in the green box but if that fails we can expect a retest of the next box below at 7850. The 7850 region could be a good place to reverse and go long if the breakout of the rising wedge itself fails. However the lower highs after lower highs on the daily charts should be a concern for medium term holders.
One other thing is we should note that BTC has been running in line with equities of late and they have recently sold off from highs, this may be BTC's turn now.
Tight stop in the 9450 area. One good thing about these divergence trades is that if the stop is hit that would indicate incredible strength in the market and with support just below, it could be a potential springboard to go a lot higher so a reversal long may be a good play providing support holds.
#BTC consolidating for the next push. It's not a given, though. #BTC consolidating for the next push. It's not a given, though.
In a positive scenario we should be able to reach at least 11 000$. But the dump on halving is still possible. Lock some profits.
And enjoy the ride.
Crypto are turning on a strong bullish modeIMO, we have got completed corrective patterns against earlier impulses on daily frame.
I am showing two assets- bitcoin cash and ethereum, too compare how similar the moves are.
If this assumption proves to be correct, then we are at the beginning of a powerful multi-month wave 3
Latest moves in general across most of the crypto assets are likely leading diagonals. After reasonable pullbacks I will locate long entries
Good luck!
$BTC is Continuing to Rally, I'm BullishFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion basis. Also, I may or may not have a conflict of interest. That being said, so far in terms of my charting patterns and analysis recently for Bitcoin, I have been fairly close in terms of predicting growth for this quarter and current wave period. Right now, I am bullish on BTC as it is rallying towards that $10k threshold we are all hoping for.
#BTC Facing Important Resistance.Hello guys. welcome to this update.BTC successfully broke above the black horizontal resistance. Now it is facing resistance around the 7800 area. Break above this range and we can expect $8300. If it doesn't beak above the resistance then I expect $7500 to act as a major support level. RSI is concerning me for being bullish atm. If you're holding any longs either put a SL or take some profits.
7500 and 7277 which is also the 200D MA acts as a major support here.
Let's see if it breaks the 7800 level.
#PEACE
#BTC at a crucial point. Hedge. #BTC at a crucial point. Hedge.
We are at the channel's resistance. There is still some time/space until we reach the 200MA, but it is not a bad time to start hedging against a natural price drop, towards the lower levels of the channel.
A strong break above the 7300$ will turn the situation bullish.
