The TRUE buy & sell moments for Vechain, continued: BUY!Introduction:
I already discussed Vechain Thor’s price movements at length in the previous articles:
- The TRUE buy & sell moments for Vechain (+ the next BUY moment!)
, and in its sequel:
- The TRUE buy & sell moments for Vechain (+ the next BUY moment! Ctn’d)
Here is a very quick recap:
In 1 (see MACD Region of the graph), we had a bullish triangle break-out accompanied by a golden cross in the MACD and a similar bull cross in the Stochastic Momentum Index ("SMI"). Other interesting indicators providing more convincing of a pending bull break-out at that time were the Chande Momentum Oscillator, and the Relative Strength Index. All that made the number 1 bull break-out on December 13th:
Weeks later, +- on the 24th of January, we saw the opposite: a trend reversal preceded by a Heikin Ashi doji, and accompanied by a death cross in the MACD in 2, and negative sentiment in the "SMI". Consequently, this moment can be highlighted as the bear break-out (number 2).
I then warned for the buy the rumour sell the news phenomenon, an event that subsequently took place on the rebranding day of VEN to VET, on the 26th of February – in 3.
I highlighted the divergence between price and Chande Momentum Oscillator somewhat later, which preceded a bullish triangle break-out, although short-lived, in 4. I also called that moment to be the next big BUY moment, but I was a little bit too early with my prediction. The MACD was indeed headed for a bullish cross, but due to the negative market sentiment first had to take one more leg down (albeit relatively limited).
Conclusion - TODAY:
However, if we look at 6 today, we see that we have practically everything that makes for a good recipe for bull-cake.
--> We have the MACD finally inclining upward with blue above red and just after a bull cross.
--> We have positive sentiment in the Stochastic Momentum Index,
--> we have a break-out of the negative trend channel that has been holding VEN hostage ever since the Bear break-out on January 24th.
--> And we seem to have a decent support at the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently we are flirting with the first 23,6% target level (see 7) after which we could head further towards 8.
--> Even if we bought in 4, we had ourselves a nice upward move where we could've taken profits, or we could've stayed in our position in the assumption we already had the big buy moment, which would mean a temporary & small loss position, that has already turned positive in the meanwhile!
So, hereby I would like to correct the “True Buy moments” for Vechain a little, by moving that moment from 4 to 6 (first of April), which is just before the triangle and negative trend channel break-out, and which has all the required indicators going for it.
Move the TRUE buy moment from 4 to 6:
Vechain, the floor is yours.
Cryptasticmind
LINK - Flirting with a crazy break-out?! (+250% potential)Quick post on Link upon request! - Have a look at this crazy graph of LINK versus the Dollar. Nice curve up. Bloody curve down! Seems like we just hit the 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and we have another strong support beneath that as well. And as is quite obvious, the curve is about to end where we are now... So yes, LINK is flirting like hell with both the end of the curve, AND the end of the triangle. It really doesn't get more exciting than that to see how it pans out. Looking at a potential target of 350% (or +250% versus current price - of course not by tomorrow).
Given the upcoming main net launch in Q2 , we also have a strong fundamental catalyst to get this one pumped (e.g. people will then stake their LINK-holdings - cfr. Vechain; + this is required for their highly ambitious plan to get decentralised "Oracles").
Moreover, in the MACD we see a golden cross , while the Stochastic Momentum Index provides a more mixed view (first still some movement down before we can really lift off?) Furthermore, it would make sense that this one starts the second part of the cup and handle here, although volume has been spiking all over the place, which is rather uncommon.
We already had some nice green volume in the previous days. If we have that when we hit the triangle resistance somewhere in the next days, that would be great news for a bullish break-out.
On the 4-hourly, we indeed see some bearish signals, hinting to a downmove first . But after that, theory suggests we should see some decent uptake.
4hourly chart versus the dollar:
Let's check the BTC graph:
This one seems to tell a similar story, although it formed a cool cup & handle-ish figure and then made a triangly handle. Now, that would be one ugly and loooooong handle, so I I'm not sure we should consider it like that. But the point remains, it is approaching the end of the triangle with similar signals as in the USD graph.
So after this rapid analysis: likely first a leg down before we can go for a break-out test. The chart tells the remainder of the story quite clearly. Good luck.
PS: if you liked this post, please give it a like so I know you as a community at least appreciate these posts :-)
- I'll update as of 15 likes ;-) .
ETH - This MIGHT be the trend reversal indicatorHi guys. We MIGHT be in for a first small trend reversal as we are having a Heikin Ashi doji candle, highlighted by the white arrow.
As in one of the updates of my previous post, I mentioned that the yellow horizontal (top & resistance of June & September) acts as a support for Ethereum. Fair, we actually kind of broke it, but seems like we are keeping close to it and the chart is creating a Heikin Ashi doji just underneath. See the sidenote here below for a quick refresh on what Heikin Ashi candles are.
We NEED an upward move (in the form of a green candle) after this doji candle, to be able to start talking about a break-out. Preferably above the yellow line.
We are ALSO seeing a golden gross now in the MACD and likewise in the Stochastic Momentum Index below. In the latter, you can see that we haven’t had a bull cross in that low of an area before, hinting to a strong positive signal.
Also, RSI is in the clear oversold area (not shown here).
While sentiment is still very bearish, and we are more then obvious still in the downward trend channel, we are absolutely not in the clear yet. But always nice to see those hints of hope and trend reversal. Also have a look at that first green volume bar, albeit well below average volume.
So… let’s keep attentive of the next candles, volume, and price movement. This might be the beginning of a trend reversal – BUT could easily be dispelled. Best thing to do remains either sitting on the side line or if you are already in there, to HODL HODL HODL.
PS1 - this is by no means to be considered formal investment advice
PS2 - Always nice if you can gently click on the thumbs up button - it's not a lot of effort but it makes my heart light up! ;-)
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Sidenote on Heikin Ashi (feel free to skip this)
The difference lies in how candle sticks are calculated:
Close = (open + high + low + close) / 4
High = maximum of high, open, or close (whichever is highest)
Low = minimum of low, open, or close (whichever is lowest)
Open = (open of previous bar + close of previous bar) / 2
FYI: A doji candle is a commonly found pattern in a candle stick chart, characterised by being small in length - meaning a small trading range - and with an open - and close price that are virtually equal.
FYI2: A spinning top is another Japanese candle stick pattern with a short body found in the middle of two long wicks.
FYI3: Heikin Ashi candles can be found in Trading view under the candle stick section and by clicking the 4rd option; these work somewhat differently than regular candle sticks.
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(!) BTC - The 2017 DEATH triangle or the 2017 GOLDEN triangleExciting times turning into even more exciting times. Those who were already sitting on the edge of their seats are now about to really fall off. That chair is volatile-ishly vibrating beneath all of our bottoms on what seems to be a hint of an imminent earthquake knocking on crypto’s door. Those who are still sitting on that chair are asking themselves whether they will fall off or whether the chair’s legs themselves will break first, consequently cracking everyone’s ass. Bitcoin is closing in on a crucial turning point. It is once again UP. Or Out.
In that regard, we have a very large triangle staring us right in the face – waiting for our move. Will we start buying massively, or do the exact opposite. Either way, a triangle break-out is at hand. Now the ball is in our camp – how will we let this triangle be recorded into crypto history books? Will we name it the “2017 GOLDEN TRIANGLE”, followed by another amazing bull run? Or will we name it the “2017 DEATH TRIANGLE”, directly ensued by EVEN MORE blood in the streets than already is the case. Yes, that’s bloody. Maximum down so far in excess of a 70% correction from a $20K zenith to a nadir at $6K. Such a market reset makes even the largest stock market crashes start to look a little pale. And the next major support zone at $4K only, lurking at us – is awaiting our choice.
So… for the moment we have strong support at $7,4K more or less and we are still in a consolidation rectangle. We are approaching the decision zone of the triangle as well. We also have one additional support zone at the 78,6% Fibonacci which was already tested back on February 5th and November 12th.
The question is: Do we all wanna become crypto whales – or crypto rekt? The choice is ours. The choice is yours.
By the way - any name tagging alternatives?
- The Houdini / Crypto Bermuda triangle (previous gains evaporated)
- The Golden Bull triangle
- The Super Bull triangle
- ...
PS1 : No specific investment advice here, just philosophic contemplation. Has to be done too sometimes.
PS2: Yes, this doesn't provide you much investment advice, or... does it?
All the best & good luck in your trading endeavours
MOD/BTC – Modum = momentum. Trade possibility.In tandem with the overall crypto market, Modum has been crushed as well – losing over 70% of its value. On March 20, we broke out of the downward trend channel that started at the top beginning of January. That was a nice buying moment – albeit I didn’t write about it (can’t be writing all the time can we :-) )
Nevertheless, the new upward trend channel provides some trading opportunities, and in the meanwhile, we just need to keep an eye out on trend reversals.
When we zoom in on the graph, we see a nice upward trend channel with up-and down spikes in nice triangle formations. They are always accompanied by a bullish cross in the MACD and in the Chande Momentum Oscillator. Given that we are back at the down part of the trend channel and that we are closing in on a new MACD bull cross, we are likely getting ready for another run up.
Targets
Place your targets near the Fibonacci lines drawn and cover your position.
Fibonacci levels (we’re currently at the 2967 or 38,2% level):
- 2851 sat (23,6%)
- 2967 sat (38,2%)
- 3016 sat (50% level)
- 3154 sat (61,8%)
- 3287 sat (78,6%)
Obviously, we absolutely want to have a stop loss for when we would break out of the trend channel, so place those accordingly.
Notice that there is a lot of remaining upward potential apart from the shorter term targets mentioned here. Moreover, we are getting closer to a triangle formation with the support line of the current trend channel as a base!
Zoom out of graph for more targets:
Triangle formation on the channel support:
Conclusion:
Place your targets near the upper Fibonacci horizontals, cover your losses near the lower Fibo's and there where the trend would be broken.
Or just go up with it as long as the trend is friendly!
PS: not to be considered as formal trading advice, DYOR
Feel free to like if you like the post :-)
ETH - The last red mile before the sun sets in?Ethereum has had a bloody couple of months behind it - All time high back to the ground.
It crushed major support areas in 1 and 2.
Now it is approaching bottom 3.
This time might be different. We have a very strong golden cross in the MACD, and an RSI that dipped at 17 and now around 23. That's clearly in the oversold zone. These two indicators by themselves, without even a chart above it, would in theory tell us one thing - b u y.
If Ethereum bounces on that level, it can get ready to break the triangle that is forming there. (also note how Ethereum bounced off off the Fibonacci 78,6% level on March 18th - we have a support both on the longer term trend line, but also on the Fibonacci 78,6% retracement!)
The Stochastic momentum index shows us that there indeed is some red first to come before we hit the support and before we can start to rebound:
I don't think we have to say many more words than this. Can ETH break that support and go even lower? Yes, it can. But the odds are way lower than an apparent bounce. And that bounce is something MACD and RSI are telling us, if not, even yelling.
Conclusion : Ethereum will fall some more (as it does already today) before it will bounce from the support level. After that, it can get ready to beat the triangle. The odds are very much in favour of that scenario. So what are you gonna place as your orders?
PS: this is by no means to be considered as investment / speculation / trading advice, merely a personal objective analysis.
PS2: I would be very grateful if you like the post - gives me some boost to keep posting this free stuff ;)
Moon potential! Recent ICO coins - AELF (ELF/BTC)In this post I'm taking a completely different approach as usual - looking for the hidden gems or ... recent "ICO" coins that have been dumped in the bear market yet have immense growth potential, and due to the bear market - even more "mooning" potential !
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This post is about AELF ("ELF") - a crypto (also labeled at times as the " Polkadot of China ") that aims to solve both the scalability and cross-chain communication (just as Polkadot does) challenge by introducing the concept of " parallel sidechains ". AELF goes one step further by trying to solve the scalability issue as well. I know - this all sounds a bit like blattery & technical Chinese for you probably, well it is also a Chinese coin :D
Scalability is one of the major problems preventing blockchain technology in general from achieving any trend of mainstream adoption. E.g. Ethereum still has a quite limited 15 transactions per second (TPS). This is an order of magnitude far too slow for any real mainstream use. Ethereum will take some time in solving that scalability issue, but it is working on it by preparing a move from the "POW" (proof of work) protocol to a proof of stake ("POS") protocol . A good example of the latter is NEO, with a max theoretical transaction processing speed of 10.000 TPS (!). (Fun anecdote: the crypto kitties hype practically crippled the ETH performance for some time, even though it wasn't even such a big fad).
So... scalability is crucial to blockchain tech survival, and the race towards providing the best solution (s) is on the table.
AELF is in this race. And...it did not even go to the "ICO" stage, because it was completely sold out at the "VC" (Venture Capital) phase (investors were some of the largest "VC" players in Asia) :-)
So what more is there to say about this possible "mooner":
--> It will release a main net by Q2 2018 (according to its planning, and which is very soon compared to other players)
--> It has some serious "VC" backing AND is trying to solve the most crucial challenges to blockchain technology , and seems to be doing a pretty promising job at it so far
--> Its market cap currently stands at $150M . If it were to reach the same size as some of the more known players, it could easily double, triple, quadruple, and go to the moon.
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Today's Technical chart situation:
--> We are looking at a golden cross in the MACD, an oversold RSI, and a downtrend that is about to be broken. Let's get some green volume behind that and see if the time is already now!
--> Strong support on the light green horizontal line
--> Could even be a cup & handle in the making
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Conclusion:
--> This coin was already interesting back in January before the sell-off. Now, after a decent correction that cut the coin's price back from around over $2,5 to about $0.58 today, it is even more interesting to have a look at. The upward potential is considerable.
--> China is rather restrictive lately on "ICO"s and stuff, making this investment maybe somewhat less interesting or more risky
--> We are still looking at an overall crypto bearish sentiment, so don't expect to make a quick buck on this. On the other hand, if you are patient, it can make sense to buy a small position in this one, simply because of its risk/reward ratio. Be patient for a couple of months - maybe even a year, and the odds are in favour of a pump on this one.
Definitely do your own research, I am merely pointing out that some coins out there might be interesting in putting a small position. Huge potential, but risk alike.
--> May I ask you, to like this post, if i) you liked it of course; ii) found some value in it; iii') would like to get more of this!
All the best!
