BTC overview - Will we make another huge bounce from here?In this analysis, we discuss BTC on the weekly timeframe in correlation with the RSI and the Stochastic RSI. Is BTC able to bounce from these levels, or are we heading to lower levels before the next bounce? I will explore this in the following analysis.
After a long consolidation in 2024, BTC reached a new all-time high (ATH) at the end of 2024/beginning of 2025. However, by making a new ATH, BTC formed a bearish divergence with the RSI—similar to what happened in 2021 when BTC reached a new ATH.
At the moment, BTC's price action looks very healthy. It is making new highs and higher lows. During the recent correction from nearly 110K, the RSI dropped to around 44, a strong support zone for the RSI in this bull market. The last two times the RSI bounced from the 44 level, BTC saw an increase of approximately 180% and 100%. In both instances, the Stochastic RSI was also oversold and bounced back to the overbought zone.
Currently, BTC is heading toward the support level at 73K, which aligns with the Golden Pocket, while the RSI holds support at 44 and the Stochastic RSI remains oversold.
It is crucial that BTC maintains support at 73K and the RSI at 44. If either one breaks, lower levels are highly likely.
If BTC finds strength at these support levels, we need to see the RSI break above 79. This would indicate the end of the bearish divergence and open the door for higher prices. However, if BTC reaches a new ATH and the RSI fails to break 79, we must watch for a continuation of the bearish divergence.
Can Bitcoin hold this level and make a significant bounce, as it did the last two times, with BTC at support, RSI at support, and the Stochastic RSI in the oversold area? The coming weeks may provide a signal on the direction BTC will take—bullish or bearish. For now, it could go either way, and we must wait for a clear market direction.
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Crypto
BTCUSD: This isn't the Top by any meansBitcoin remains slightly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.137, MACD = -3097.700, ADX = 33.471) as even though it appears its trading on a macro bottom, just over the 1W MA50 (1W RSI = 45.068), it hasn't broken out yet. The market undoubtedly took a psychological hit with February's drop but despite the voices calling for a new bear market, we are here to show you why this Cycle hasn't topped yet and is still far from doing so.
This metric measures BTC's temporary stops/ tops during a Bull Cycle. It is a Halving-to-Halving method, starting on the most recent Halving and ending on the next one. Stop 1 is where the starting Halving takes place and the market pulls back. Stop 2 is the next pullback on the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. The 0.382 Fib prices Stop 3 and basically the Cycle Top. This has been happening on both previous Cycles exactly as described and on the 2012-14 Cycle it just had to be adjusted a little before the 1st Halving due to the Cycle being much shorter since it was the earliest. Nevertheless, it fits the Stop points perfectly.
Note also that distance from the Halving (Stop 1) to Stop 3 has always been 76/78 weeks. This suggests the we can have a new Cycle Top by October 20th 2025 the latest.
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Why GBPJPY is Bullish?? Detailed technical and fundamentalsThe GBP/JPY pair has recently confirmed a bullish reversal by breaking out of a falling wedge pattern, aligning with our earlier analysis. Currently trading at 194.000, the pair is on track toward our target of 199.000.
Technically, the breakout from the falling wedge—a pattern typically indicative of bullish reversals—suggests increased buying momentum. This is further supported by the pair's ability to maintain levels above key resistance points, now acting as support. The next significant resistance is anticipated around the 195.000 level, a psychological barrier that, if surpassed, could pave the way toward our 199.000 target.
Fundamentally, the British pound has been bolstered by positive economic indicators, including robust GDP growth and a resilient labor market, enhancing investor confidence. Conversely, the Japanese yen has experienced depreciation due to the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-loose monetary policies, aiming to stimulate inflation and economic growth. This monetary policy divergence has contributed to the upward trajectory of GBP/JPY.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors supports a bullish outlook for GBP/JPY. Traders should monitor upcoming economic releases and central bank communications, as these could impact market sentiment and price action. Maintaining a disciplined approach with appropriate risk management strategies is essential as the pair approaches the 199.000 target.
FIL/USDT Breakdown – Is a Major Drop Coming? Yello, Paradisers! FIL/USDT has just broken below the EMA 50, and that’s a big red flag for bulls. This level had been acting as strong dynamic support, and now that it’s lost, the bearish momentum is strengthening. If buyers can’t reclaim it soon, the market could be gearing up for a deeper move to the downside.
💎The price is struggling around the major Supply Zone at $2.90 - $3.00, and the failure to hold above this level combined with the EMA 50 breakdown increases the likelihood of a drop toward the next Support Area at $2.467 - $2.209. With the EMA 50 now acting as resistance, any retest is likely to face heavy selling pressure.
💎The EMA 200 remains a key dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias. Unless FIL/USDT reclaims the EMA 50 and breaks convincingly above $3.306 with strong volume, the downward trend remains intact.
💎If the decline continues with increasing volume, sellers are firmly in control, making a deeper drop more likely. On the other hand, a weak move lower with low volume could indicate exhaustion, potentially leading to a short-term bounce or consolidation.
This is not the time to chase trades blindly. Patience and discipline always win in the long run, Paradisers. Stick to your levels and execute only high-probability setups. Stay sharp.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
ARB/USDT – The zone is interesting for starting accumulation.Arbitrum - is an Ethereum layer-two (L2) scaling solution. It uses optimistic rollups to achieve its goal of improving speed, scalability and cost-efficiency on Ethereum. Arbitrum benefits from the security and compatibility of Ethereum. Another benefit is the higher throughput and lower fees compared to Ethereum. That is made possible thanks to moving most of the computation and storage load off-chain.
Arbitrum’s native token is called ARB and is used for governance. Offchain Labs, the developers behind Arbitrum, announced the shift to a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) structure — the Arbitrum DAO. ARB holders can vote on proposals that affect the features, protocol upgrades, funds allocation and election of a Security Council.
CoinMarketCap : #51
The hyped-up Arbitrum! 😂
📉 January - February - March 2024: Bloggers trapped a huge number of people, and now we’re seeing a massive -87% decline!
Looking at the main trend, a large descending channel is forming. The price is currently at the support of the inner channel, and if the market makes a final liquidity grab with a downward wick, the price could head toward the support of the outer channel, targeting a -30% drop.
In my previous trading idea, I marked the 1.1552 zone, which is exactly where the price reversed. Everything is marked on the chart—the potential profit is very solid, especially for spot trading. The price will react strongly to the resistance zones of both the inner and outer channels.
🚀 These are the moments to watch for position accumulation—when no one is interested and belief in growth is dead, not when everyone is screaming "BUY NOW!" at local tops!
*I will update the trading idea as the trend develops.
Bitcoin drops. What's next?Hello, Traders!
Bitcoin price continues to fall towards the next big support area at 74k-70k.
Currently, there is no sign of BTC reversal, and it seems that this correction phase will last long.
Ideally, the faster BTC finds its local bottom, the faster it starts to rise again.
However, the current market conditions suggest that a period of consolidation might be necessary before a meaningful recovery.
I doubt that the BTC price will fall below 70k despite all the negative sentiment surrounding it at the moment.
More likely, we will see strong buying pressure at those levels, as institutional investors and long-term holders step in to accumulate at what they perceive as a discount.
Also, the stochastic RSI on a weekly scale has dropped to 0, which historically indicates that momentum is oversold and a potential reversal could be near.
If we see a bullish cross on the SRSI on a weekly timeframe, this might act as a catalyst for a price rebound, possibly pushing BTC toward new highs.
Another indication of a possible bottom is the Fear & Greed Index, which currently sits at around 20.
This level reflects extreme fear in the market, a condition that has often preceded local bottoms in previous cycles.
Historically, such extreme fear tends to trigger a shift in sentiment, leading to increased demand and a subsequent price recovery.
Furthermore, on-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders remain unfazed by the recent downturn, with exchange reserves continuing to decline. This indicates that a significant portion of BTC supply is being moved to cold storage, reducing selling pressure.
Additionally, open interest in the futures market has seen a decline, which could mean that excessive leverage is being flushed out—a necessary step for a healthier market structure.
If BTC manages to hold the 70k support level and confirms a reversal with increasing volume, we could see a strong recovery phase unfold.
However, if the price breaks below this key support, the next significant area to watch would be around 65k, where additional buying interest might emerge.
Please don’t forget to boost this idea and leave your comments below.
ETH/USDT: Testing Key Support with Potential for ReboundThe ETH/USDT pair continues to decline, approaching a key support level last tested in October 2023. Historically, similar price movements were observed in 2021, when the price dropped from the 4,300 level before rebounding from the 1,700 support zone, ultimately leading to new all-time highs.
Currently, the price has broken above a downward trendline that had served as a resistance throughout the month. Looking ahead, the market may remain in a sideways phase over the coming weeks, with a potential upward push if buying pressure emerges from the support level. The next key target is the resistance zone around 2,190
PIUSDT : Head & Shoulders Signals a Major Drop Incoming!Yello, Paradisers! PIUSDT is flashing strong bearish signals! The price has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern right on the resistance trendline of a descending channel—this combination significantly increases the probability of a sharp move to the downside.
💎PIUSDT breaks below the neckline and closed a candle which validates the bearish setup, increasing the likelihood of further downside.
💎However, We have to wait for the proper retest of the neckline, patience is key for the right entry.
💎On the flip side, if PIUSDT breaks above the resistance zone and closes candle above it, the bearish setup will be invalidated.
Stay disciplined and wait for confirmation, Paradisers. A fakeout could trap impatient traders—don’t be one of them! 🎖
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success 🌴
BTC - Bullish SOON!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
BTC has been in a correction phase, and it feels like it's taking forever! ⏳
As long as the blue trendline holds, the overall bias remains bullish. 📈
As BTC approaches the blue trendline—perfectly aligning with a demand zone and support—we'll be watching for trend-following longs to catch the next big impulse move upward. 🚀
For now, we wait! ⏳
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NEI up from here!NEI has also been bearish, trading within the falling channel marked in red.
However, from a medium-term perspective, NEI has been trading within a large range marked in green, and this week, it has been approaching the lower boundary of that range.
As long as the $0.005 support level and round number hold, I expect the bulls to step in from here, especially once the falling red channel is broken to the upside.
Double down like Michael Chad Saylor - MSTR ----> MSTU 2X"Are you convicted?"
Of Bitcoin achieving a new All time high if so Saylor will greatly rewarded and lauded.
MicroStrategy's unwavering focus on acquiring Bitcoin through unconventional financing methods, rather than building a sustainable revenue-generating business, carries significant risks, especially if a major bear market were to hit the cryptocurrency sector again. This exposure to Bitcoin offers a distinctive investment opportunity for those looking to gain leverage in the crypto space without direct participation.
While MicroStrategy's inherent volatility may deter more traditional investors, it also provides a platform for those eager to engage with market dynamics. The MSTU adds an additional layer of volatility, but unlike options, it does not have an expiration date.
Investors should closely monitor Bitcoin's market fluctuations, as these directly influence MSTR's stock price, potentially creating advantageous entry points for savvy traders.
ETH/USDT Weekly Chart Analysis. The Ethereum (ETH/USDT) weekly chart suggests a potential bullish reversal from a key support area. Here are the details of the analysis:
Support area: Around $1,750 – $1,830, where the price recently rebounded.
Resistance levels:
First target: $4,015
Key resistance: $4,663, which marks a key breakout level.
ETH has bounced off historical support levels, indicating potential accumulation.
If the price sustains above $1,800, the next target is $4,015, followed by $4,663 if the momentum continues.
A break below $1,747 – $1,700 could lead to further declines, with the next strong support near $1,053.
Look for a confirmation of a breakout above $2,000 to confirm a strong uptrend.
Keep an eye on volume and indicators (RSI, MACD) for further confirmation of momentum.
Risk management is important in volatile market conditions.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
AVAXUSDT Breakdown Alert – Are Lower Lows Coming Next?Yello, Paradisers! Is AVAXUSDT gearing up for a bigger drop? Let’s break it down.
💎AVAXUSDT has turned bearish after breaking below its key support trendline. A Change of Character (CHoCH) confirms the shift to the downside, and right now, the price is rejecting from a critical 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and the 200 EMA resistance zone. Adding to the bearish pressure, we also see a 4H bearish divergence, making a downside move highly probable.
💎Moreover, AVAXUSDT is in the process of forming a Head & Shoulders pattern, which increases the risk-to-reward (RR) potential for short trades. On top of that, there’s liquidity resting below, which could act as a magnet, pulling the price further down.
💎However, if the price breaks out and closes a candle above the 200 EMA resistance zone, this bearish outlook will be invalidated. In that case, it’s better to wait for clearer price action before making any moves.
🎖Patience is key, Paradisers. Stick to the strategy, avoid emotional trading, and let the market come to you. The best setups will always present themselves to those who wait!
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
SHIBUSD can go x7 from here.Shiba Inu / SHIBUSD is rebounding at the bottom of the 3.5 year Triangle.
The 1week RSI is on a similar sequence as February-May 2023, which eventually rose aggressively by +661.50%.
Considering that the price made last week a Double Bottom with the August 5th 2024 low, this is a unique long term buy opportunity.
Buy and target 0.00008450
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SUIUSD Can it go to $12??Sui / SUIUSD hit last week the Pivot Zone that marked the initial historic opening price, the Feb & Marhc 2024 Highs and October 2024 bottom.
So far this week is reacting with a bounce.
If the bullish trend is sustained, which is also the 0.618 Fibonacci and the 1week RSI bottom like July 2024, then we expect at least a +507.35% rise towards the 1.382 Fib extension.
Buy and target $12.000.
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BITCOIN When unsure, look at the bigger pictureSimple, yet highly informative especially in times of high uncertainty like the current one.
Bitcoin / BTCUSD has a Full Cycle of 4 years.
1 year of Bear and 3 years of Bull.
Right now we have entered the final year of the 3 year Bull Cycle, so we have a few more months left until the end of the year.
Come October, we can start considering a top for BTC.
Until then.. Buy the dip.
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Dogecoin - New All Time Highs Will Come!Dogecoin ( CRYPTO:DOGEUSD ) still remains bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
If you look at the chart above, you can see almost only green mark ups. That's because despite the recent drop, Dogecoin remains in a very bullish market and is overall clearly heading higher. If this break and retest now plays out, we will even see new all time highs in the future.
Levels to watch: $0.2, $0.5
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Why the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Indicator will not trigger this cycleIn this post, we’ll take a closer look at the Pi Cycle Indicator and explain why we believe it is unlikely to trigger in this cycle. Instead, we present an alternative signal that may better indicate the true Bitcoin top.
Understanding the Pi Cycle Indicator
The Pi Cycle Indicator has historically been highly accurate in predicting Bitcoin cycle tops. It consists of two simple moving averages:
The 111-day simple moving average (SMA) (blue)
The 350-day simple moving average (SMA) multiplied by two (green)
A signal is generated when the 111-day SMA crosses above the multiplied 350-day SMA, which is marked by a red vertical line.
Why This Signal Alone Isn’t Enough
While this signal has been useful in the past, we believe it doesn't provide the full picture—specifically, it doesn’t indicate how strong the crossover is. By transforming this indicator into an oscillator that measures the ratio between these two moving averages, we gain a more nuanced perspective:
In the chart, the green line represents the ratio between the two moving averages. When it crosses above the red horizontal line (ratio > 1), a Pi Cycle signal occurs (marked by a red vertical line). Notably, the 2017 signal was significantly stronger than the 2021 signal, suggesting a pattern of diminishing returns. We highly recommend checking out our post on diminishing returns and the overall timeline for the current cycle here . Additionally, we've developed our own Bitcoin model that factors in the effects of diminishing returns. Check it out here .
The TRUE cycle top signal
The key question is whether this diminishing return is strong enough to prevent a signal from forming in this cycle. Based on our analysis, we believe it is.
By extrapolating this trend into the future using a white diagonal trend line, it becomes clear that the ratio will likely remain below 1, meaning no crossover is expected this cycle.
Instead, we anticipate that the next Bitcoin top will occur at a ratio of approximately 0.9 , as indicated by the orange area on the chart.
In summary, while the Pi Cycle Indicator has been a reliable tool in previous cycles, its diminishing strength suggests that it may not trigger this time. Rather than relying solely on this metric, we suggest considering looking deeper into the true value of this indicator instead.
LONG ON BITCOINMarket structure wise Bitcoin looks like its ready to Rise.
Other political and economic factors are also being looked at as to why I am buying bitcoin.
But Its mainly The Market structure shift Im seeing on the charts that has me hitting buy!
Im looking to make about 7-8k points on BTC.
DOGEUSD: This is why it can go to $2.00Dogecoin is bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 41.068, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 51.882) as it's trading under the 1W MA50. It did find however support on the 1W MA100 and that reminds us of the August-September bottoming period, which served as accumulation for the market, giving way to the post U.S. election rally. This chart shows DOGE's three Phases of Growth of the current Cycle. As the 1W MA100 holds, we have succesfully completed Phase 2 and have started Phase 3, which is technically the most bullish. The last Phase 3 topped a little over the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of Phase 1 bottom. This implies that a $2.00 TP by the end of Q3 is a technically achievable price.
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BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116?! (UPDATE)Since I posted this the other day, Bitcoin has been pushing up in profit!
After a redistribution phase where late buyers got wrecked at the top the market, we've seen price drop back down liquidating billions in buy orders in the past few weeks. I believe this Wave 4 shakeout will now be followed by another bull run, like we are seeing happen now.
BTCUSD: TSI shows that this is the LAST BEST BUYBitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.997, MACD = 3171.400, ADX = 55.280) as it found support on the 1W MA50 last 3 weeks and is trying to capitalize on this with a bullish reaction. The rebound is closer than ever and in our opinion based on the True Strength Index (TSI), this may be the last best buy opportunity of this Cycle before it tops. The 1W TSI is now on its long term Buy Zone, last time it was there was on the August 5th 2024 bottom.
The TSI basically marks bottoms and tops on the last 3 Cycles in particular. More specifically, it makes 5 tops in total, every time it approaches 1.00, it is a signal to sell and wait for it to approach -1.00. We are now as mentioned the closest we've been to -1.00 in 7 months and we came here from Top 4. The Cycle technically has one more Top (5) to give so practically the current levels are the last best buy opportunity of the Cycle.
From top-to-bottom, the 2014-2017 Cycle lasted 1470 days, the next one (2018-2021) 1430 days, so if there is a declining rate of 40 days on each passing Cycle, we can start expecting a new Cycle Top by September 2025. The price can be at least 130k be then.
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Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly from Key SupportCritical Support Zone:
Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from the $80,000-$78,000 support level, which previously served as the breakout zone in late October 2024. This strong reaction suggests significant buying interest and potentially a higher low within the broader uptrend.
Healthy Market Correction:
After reaching an all-time high of $108,000, Bitcoin experienced a typical bull market retracement of about 30%. The strong bullish engulfing candle at support signals a possible shift back to the upside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Holding above $80,000-$78,000 is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Immediate Resistance: $88,000-$90,000 range.
Upside Target: If bullish momentum continues, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 in the next phase of its uptrend.
With momentum potentially shifting, Bitcoin is at a decisive point—will it reclaim new highs? Stay tuned! 🚀📈
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