BITCOIN Is this the 'most normal' Cycle of them all ??This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be.
As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago.
To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange).
** Diminishing Returns **
As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence **
Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle.
** What's next for the current Cycle? **
If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it.
Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k.
As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever.
So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Crypto
levels to watch I've been short on BTC ever since it crossed the 100k mark, with an initial target around 75k. The markets briefly dipped below 79k and then rallied back, struggling to hold above 95k but staying below 78k.
For now, it seems to be trading within a channel. My focus remains on the 75k target, but if the price breaks above 85k, we could see the market eyeing the 108k level again. Time will tell where things head from here.
STRK/USDT – Position accumulation in a descending channel.StarkNet - is a permissionless decentralized Validity-Rollup (also known as a “ZK-Rollup”). It operates as an L2 network over Ethereum, enabling any dApp to achieve unlimited scale for its computation – without compromising Ethereum’s composability and security, thanks to StarkNet’s reliance on the safest and most scalable cryptographic proof system – STARK.
StarkNet Contracts and the StarkNet OS are written in Cairo – supporting the deployment and scaling of any use case, whatever the business logic.
CoinMarketCap : #106
Twitter(X) : 346,4k
Currently, STRK is trading within a large descending channel , with the price sitting at the support of the inner channel . After the hype, the price has dropped by -95% ! The Series B & C Round zones are being tested. A -30% drop to the support of the outer channel is not ruled out.
STRK will likely move only when ETH starts growing , as it is an L2 solution.
During the listing phase , this coin was heavily hyped— bloggers were screaming to buy before it "took off" , but they forgot to mention that the rocket was headed downward . Most of them had no real idea what they were doing—it was all just for hype and content .
Now, few still believe in its potential … faith is gone .
But this is exactly why fear is unnecessary . Historically, negative zones often provide some of the best entry points.
I expect STRK to outperform ETH in profitability due to its low liquidity.
I’ve marked everything on the chart—consider this in your trading strategy.
Alt season Can start from this zone finally altcoins market cap reached at crucial support area, expecting successful retest from trendline, and this blue area, the question is why im expecting alt season from here, b,coz multi year symmetrical triangle got cleared, and market came for retest, healthy correction happens in markets often the time, and currently market testing crucial support area, successful retest with strong momentum can lead massive alt season from here
WIF/USDT - Fresh meme coin. Trading setup in chanal. Popular fresh meme coin – Dogwifhat
📊 CoinMarketCap Rank: #102
🐦 Twitter (X) : 152K followers
💬 Telegram : 50K members
✅ Highly liquid meme coin – traded on many major exchanges, including Binance.
After the hype phase , the coin is now declining along with the overall crypto market —no exceptions. Essentially, it broke below multiple channel supports , and the price is now sitting at the support of the outer channel.
I also notice a non-textbook Head & Shoulders pattern, which suggests a potential -64% breakdown . The last squeeze happened around this level.
Currently, we are seeing consolidation with increased volume , along with high-wick price action in this zone.
I've marked potential downside support zones as well as upside resistance targets on the chart. Consider this in your trading strategy!
DYDX/USDT – Working within the horizontal channel. Continuation.dYdX - is DeFi’s pro trading platform and a pioneer in decentralized finance, known for being the first to offer decentralized margin trading and derivatives, as well as inventing flash loans and DEX aggregators in 2018. Built on a custom Layer-1 blockchain using the Cosmos SDK, dYdX provides a professional-grade, decentralized trading experience with high leverage, deep liquidity, and low fees. Governed by the community through the DYDX token, dYdX is focused on delivering a transparent and user-driven financial system.
CoinMarketCap : #107
I've been working within this channel for about 2.5 years.
From my previous trading idea, two marked zones were reached:
1.6447 (+80%)
2.5007 (+176%)
The maximum squeeze reached +185.5%.
I'm continuing to work within the channel.
Last time, liquidity was accumulated below the support of the inner channel.
Now, liquidity is being gathered below the support of the outer channel—as always.
I've marked potential final liquidity grabs on the chart, as well as resistance zones where the price is likely to react.
The profit is significant, and if you work with compound interest, well… I'll just keep quiet—not everyone understands this and keeps waiting for the final rally.
A reminder:
Right now, fear dominates across all coins. This is the phase where nobody wants to buy or where many have already run out of funds. Why? Because, as always, most people buy at the top.
Take all of this into account in your trading strategy.
LRC/USDT – Horizontal channel. Continuing to work.Loopring - is an open protocol designed for building decentralized crypto exchanges.
CoinMarketCap : #262
Since the publication of my trading idea, the price has reached the resistance zone of the inner channel at $0.3338 (+158%). From there, it retraced back to the support of the outer channel, following the overall market movement.
I've marked potential liquidity grabs (wicks) as well as future target zones in case of a trend reversal on the chart.
Remember, if you're feeling scared right now, so is everyone else. Many have lost faith in a market recovery. Typically, these are strong triggers for position accumulation.
There's no need to guess where the price will go—just build your strategy and follow it.
My previous idea generated solid profit, and I'm now reinvesting from profits using compound interest.
BTC USD UpdateWe've seen massive news in the crypto space lately, yet the price absorbs buys and pushes lower week after week. The logical explanation is that they need to drive the price down to buy massive orders at a cheaper price. We don't close our spot trades; we remain overall bullish on these coins. So, we're in scalping mode, filling new spot orders as the price drops. We're confident it will go up sooner or later. Currently, we're in a bearish price range, and liquidity has built up heavily beneath the daily fractals. Therefore, we're focusing on scalps, trading in and out within the range. As of now, the range high is 95,128.88, and the low is 76,555.00. Let's see what happens.
BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis patternThe BTC/USDT weekly chart shows a classic technical analysis pattern
Support and resistance levels:
There is clear horizontal resistance around $83,000, represented by the green line.
The potential support level is marked around $78,000.
The chart shows a “cup and handle” structure, which could indicate bullish potential if the price breaks above the resistance.
An upward trend line is also present, reinforcing bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above it.
Currently trading around $83,436, noticeable price action reflects market sentiment towards potential future highs.
Keep an eye on breakouts above resistance for bullish signals or declines below support levels for potential bearish sentiment.
Always consider market volatility and use risk management strategies when trading.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Bitcoin Deviation From Long Term TrendBitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close).
Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops.
Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently.
This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.
BTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuardBTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuard
Hello, fellow financial misfits! Already regretting not closing your trade when you were in profit? Don’t worry, you’re in excellent company.
Before we dive in, let’s get one thing straight: if my analysis is saving you from ending up like FTX , then do yourself a favor— drop a boost, follow me, and leave a comment!
🚀 LET’S GO:
- Analysis to compare with the previous one that gave us a sweet 6K move, from 82K to 76K. Well done, colleagues! No Ferraris this time either, but at least you won’t have to sell your cat to cover your margin call. 🐱💸
CURRENT SITUATION: THE MARKET CIRCUS
Here we are, fresh update just for you, because I know that without my guidance, you’re staring at your charts like a confused goldfish. 🐟
Meanwhile, while Bitcoin figures out whether to go up, down, or just mess with us all, the real world keeps delivering its fair share of nonsense. Trump (a.k.a. the blond guy with a ramen wig) 🍜 is still keeping us entertained, while geopolitics is tangled up like a pair of earphones in your pocket.
And now, get this: Russia is using Bitcoin to trade oil with China and India.
🔹 Mother Russia’s Trick:
1. China and India pay for oil in yuan or rupees.
2. Everything gets converted into Bitcoin and other cryptos.
3. Russia cashes in and smirks while sipping vodka. 🍷😏
Meanwhile, we’re stuck dealing with KYC, banks blocking our withdrawals, and regulations changing every five minutes, while Putin is out here trading like a Wall Street shark. And us? Just trying not to get wrecked by the market.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BITCOIN’S MAZE
📈 General trend: Still bullish, but with the emotional stability of a trader on 50x leverage in a pump & dump. 🎢
📌 Current price: 83K
📌 Key level: 84K, possible bearish rejection.
📌 Warning! It might push up to 87-86K to grab liquidity before pulling a textbook dump.
📌 Fun fact: If it closes above 87K on a higher timeframe, we could see a bullish reversal signal. Otherwise, grab your helmet, because we’re going down. 🪂
PRICE TARGETS
📉 Bearish targets:
1. 80.140K
2. 76.600K
3. 74.000K
4. 70.000K
5. 66.000K (if we hit this, light a candle for crypto) 🔥
📈 Bullish targets:
1. 86.700K
2. 89.000K
3. 92.000K
4. 95.000K
5. 102.000K (if we get there, big party and we all buy a Lambo… toy version) 🚗
If you enjoyed this analysis, support PipGuard , because financial information served with sarcasm and expertise is the only kind worth reading. Follow, boost, and comment, or I’ll send you a chart with invisible candles on a white background. 🎭
Until next time, may volatility be with you!
PipGuard 🚀
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ETH/USDT – Ascending channel. Breakdown below support?Ethereum - is a smart contract platform that allows developers to build decentralized applications (DApps) on its blockchain.
CoinMarketCap : #2
↗️ Ethereum is moving within an ascending channel, and the bullish trend remains intact.
Inside the channel, there are two triangles.
The first triangle, with a base of 88%, has played out—its third wave broke through the triangle.
Liquidity grabs and shakeouts before the growth in the inner channel zones are marked with yellow circles.
Currently, we see a mirrored situation with a new triangle, this time with a 156% base. However, if this pattern plays out, it will break the ascending channel.
At the moment, the price has been dragged below the channel support, and there is a lot of negative sentiment in the news and opinions. Few believe in an upward move, and many have been liquidated. To me, this looks like a strong trigger.
⤵️The bearish scenario implies a -61% drop. (A less likely scenario.)
I've marked everything on the chart—consider this in your trading strategy. Remember, there's a lot of negativity around Ethereum, just like with all altcoins...
I also believe that on the monthly chart, it will end up being just a wick of the candle.
BNXUSDT Breakout Imminent: High Volume Signals Potential 50-60%BNXUSDT is currently forming a strong breakout pattern, showing signs of bullish momentum. The trading volume is increasing, indicating that investors are actively participating in this move. With a solid structure and a breakout looking imminent, BNXUSDT could be set for a significant rally. Traders are closely watching this level, anticipating a strong price surge once the resistance is broken.
Technical analysis suggests that the price is consolidating just below a key breakout point. A successful breakout could trigger a sharp upward movement, with potential gains ranging from 50% to 60%+. The combination of strong volume and market interest further supports this bullish scenario. As the buying pressure builds up, BNXUSDT could soon enter a high-momentum phase, attracting more investors looking for profitable opportunities.
With the crypto market showing increased volatility and potential, BNXUSDT remains a promising asset to watch. Traders and investors are advised to keep an eye on this pair as it moves closer to its breakout zone. A confirmed breakout with sustained volume could validate the anticipated bullish run, offering traders a lucrative upside potential.
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Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
SCRT/USDT – Testing support. Will the scenario repeat?Secret - is a privacy-focused blockchain built on Cosmos. Its smart contracts, called Secret Contracts, enable DApps to utilize private data on Secret, similar to how smart contracts function on other blockchains. However, Secret Contracts transmit encrypted data through encrypted channels without exposing it. This is made possible by encrypting the contract state during execution.
All the charts are cropped, so I found a more complete historical chart of the coin and overlaid it to the left.
This coin has dropped by approximately -98% since its distribution. To put it in perspective, if you had invested $1,000 , you would now have only $20 …
We observe a formation resembling an internal channel (120%) and an external channel (280%) . The price is once again being squeezed near support at the lowest price zones available on Binance (where the main liquidity is).
My previous trading idea played out successfully in three zones .
Profit from the time of publication to the squeeze: +270%.
The price is moving within a descending channel , but at the same time, the sideways range I previously anticipated is also forming. Here, it’s crucial to adapt to the situation.
Right now, the entire market is experiencing a pullback toward support levels .
I've marked potential final liquidity grab zones on the chart—consider these in your trading strategy.
Also, I want to highlight how negative the news sentiment is at the moment. No one believes in a rally. But that's exactly how it always looks in similar price reversal zones !)))
CVX/USDT – Is the scenario repeating? Continuing to work.The previous trading idea has played out with 3 out of 4 marked zones reached.
We saw a false breakout from the descending channel, followed by a pullback in line with the overall market—returning to the channel’s support zone.
I’ve noticed a potential formation of either a diamond pattern or an expanding triangle, but we’ll see how it plays out further.
Regarding declines and support zones:
-10.71% drop to the support of the descending channel.
-26.27% drop to the anticipated support of the expanding triangle.
-50% drop, likely as a squeeze under extremely negative news.
Regarding growth and resistance zones:
+65% rise to the resistance of the internal channel.
+110% rise to the resistance of the external channel (and if a diamond pattern forms, then its boundary).
+246% rise as a second attempt to break out of the descending channel.
+440% rise as a potential realization of diamond pattern pricing (if it forms).
All of this should be factored into your trading strategy, even the less likely scenarios.
I'll share the execution of the previous trading idea in my TG. I've also marked it on the chart.
AltSeason Begins If/When...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🔹 Let’s keep it simple and straightforward:
📈 Altseason begins if/when ETH breaks above its falling channel (in red) 📉 and the $2,000 round number.
⚠️ Meanwhile, further downside is expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
UniversOfSignals | Ethereum – The Never Ending Bear Trend?👋 Welcome to the UniversOfsignals channel!
Current Market Structure – Bearish Trend Dominates
Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a well-defined downtrend, consistently rejecting imbalance zones (highlighted in blue on the chart). Each time price reaches one of these zones, we see a rejection followed by a move lower. This has been a repeated pattern, confirming that sellers remain in control and that ETH is struggling to gain any meaningful bullish momentum.
The presence of a clear descending trendline further supports this bearish structure, as ETH continues to respect this resistance and fails to break higher. Until we see a strong shift in price action, the trend remains intact, and lower prices are likely.
Rejection of Imbalance Zones – No Bullish Confirmation Yet
The imbalance zones act as strong resistance, and so far, every attempt to push above them has resulted in rejection. This means that until one of these imbalance zones is invalidated (i.e., price breaks and holds above one), we cannot consider any bullish scenario.
Each rejection strengthens the bearish case, reinforcing the idea that ETH is likely to continue making lower lows and lower highs. Unless buyers step in with significant strength and push ETH beyond a key resistance level, the safest approach is to assume that the downtrend will continue.
When Can We Consider a Bullish Scenario?
For ETH to turn bullish, we need to see at least one of the following:
Breakout above an imbalance zone – This would indicate a shift in market structure and potential strength from buyers.
Higher highs and higher lows forming – A sign that momentum is shifting away from the current bearish trend.
Price reclaiming key resistance levels – If ETH can reclaim lost ground and sustain above it, it may indicate a potential reversal.
Until one of these conditions is met, there is no reason to be bullish. Any upside move that fails to break a key resistance should be considered a shorting opportunity rather than a bullish reversal.
Key Bearish Confirmation – Lower Prices Expected
As long as ETH keeps rejecting imbalance zones and making lower highs, the market structure remains bearish. The next downside targets are likely to be the previous support levels, with price potentially dropping towards the $1,600-$1,500 range if selling pressure continues.
The projected red price movement on the chart suggests that ETH could consolidate for a bit before continuing its descent. This aligns with the current trend and price behavior.
Historical Context – ETH at 2-Year Lows
ETH is currently trading at a price level last seen two years ago, reflecting significant weakness. Despite temporary rebounds, price action remains suppressed, and we are not seeing the kind of momentum that would indicate a strong recovery.
While some may view this as a “cheap” buying opportunity, the reality is that ETH is showing no bullish strength in its current price action. Without a confirmed trend reversal, simply being at a low price does not make it a good buy. Catching a falling knife is risky, and it is better to wait for confirmation before considering long positions.
Final Thoughts – Patience is Key
ETH remains in a strong bearish trend, and every rejection confirms lower prices.
No bullish confirmation yet – price needs to break a key level before we consider upside potential.
Expect further downside unless market structure changes.
ETH is at historical low levels, but low prices alone do not mean bullish momentum is coming.
As traders, the best approach is to wait for confirmation and trade with the trend. Until ETH proves otherwise, the bearish structure remains dominant, and downside targets remain in play.
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UniversOfSignals | NEAR: Weekly Timeframe 👋 Welcome to UniversOfSignals !
Today's analysis will focus on NEAR, a Layer 1 and AI crypto project with a market cap of $3.17 billion, ranking 31st on CoinMarketCap.
📅 Weekly Timeframe
In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, following an upward leg from $0.993 to $8.298, a range box formed over a year from $3.615 to $8.298. Recently, with the market's downturn, the price finally broke below this box's floor at $3.615.
✅ Currently, the price has pulled back to this area after breaking $3.615 and has dropped to $2.574, where it's currently forming a supportive green candle.
⚡️ The $2.574 area is robust, showing positive price response, and it remains to be seen what happens next. If this support breaks, the price could move towards lower areas like $1.830 and $0.993.
🔑 Conversely, if the price can sustain this support and move above $3.615, a significant upward momentum could enter the market, potentially driving the price at least up to $8.298. A break above $8.298 could see the next target at $16.839.
📊 Market volume has increased following the range break, which is natural as the price has finally moved out of a range, and increased volume has entered. Continuation of this volume increase could heighten the likelihood of breaking $2.574.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
universOfSignals | NEAR: Breaking Boundaries in Layer1 AI Crypto👋 Welcome to universOfSignals !
Today's analysis will focus on NEAR, a Layer 1 and AI crypto project with a market cap of $3.17 billion, ranking 31st on CoinMarketCap.
📅 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, we can observe more detailed price movements.
💫 As seen, the main support at $3.615 has broken, and subsequently, a price box formed between $2.804 and $3.615. Coinciding with an RSI divergence, the floor at $2.804 broke, and the price dropped to $2.161.
🎲 Currently, the price is correcting back towards the $2.804 area. Market volume is rising, and the RSI divergence trigger has not yet been activated, indicating ongoing bearish momentum.
💥 If the RSI breaks the 50 area, the divergence could impact the market and eliminate the bearish momentum. This would be the first sign of a trend change, but the main ceiling at $3.615 must be broken to confirm a trend reversal.
📉 For short positions, breaking the $2.161 area is suitable, and if this area breaks, the price could drop to $1.682. For long positions, breaking $2.804 is a risky trigger, with the main trigger at $3.615 for a more solid position.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️