Bitcoin Deviation From Long Term TrendBitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close).
Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops.
Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently.
This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.
Crypto
BTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuardBTC | USD - The Crypto Rodeo with PipGuard
Hello, fellow financial misfits! Already regretting not closing your trade when you were in profit? Don’t worry, you’re in excellent company.
Before we dive in, let’s get one thing straight: if my analysis is saving you from ending up like FTX , then do yourself a favor— drop a boost, follow me, and leave a comment!
🚀 LET’S GO:
- Analysis to compare with the previous one that gave us a sweet 6K move, from 82K to 76K. Well done, colleagues! No Ferraris this time either, but at least you won’t have to sell your cat to cover your margin call. 🐱💸
CURRENT SITUATION: THE MARKET CIRCUS
Here we are, fresh update just for you, because I know that without my guidance, you’re staring at your charts like a confused goldfish. 🐟
Meanwhile, while Bitcoin figures out whether to go up, down, or just mess with us all, the real world keeps delivering its fair share of nonsense. Trump (a.k.a. the blond guy with a ramen wig) 🍜 is still keeping us entertained, while geopolitics is tangled up like a pair of earphones in your pocket.
And now, get this: Russia is using Bitcoin to trade oil with China and India.
🔹 Mother Russia’s Trick:
1. China and India pay for oil in yuan or rupees.
2. Everything gets converted into Bitcoin and other cryptos.
3. Russia cashes in and smirks while sipping vodka. 🍷😏
Meanwhile, we’re stuck dealing with KYC, banks blocking our withdrawals, and regulations changing every five minutes, while Putin is out here trading like a Wall Street shark. And us? Just trying not to get wrecked by the market.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BITCOIN’S MAZE
📈 General trend: Still bullish, but with the emotional stability of a trader on 50x leverage in a pump & dump. 🎢
📌 Current price: 83K
📌 Key level: 84K, possible bearish rejection.
📌 Warning! It might push up to 87-86K to grab liquidity before pulling a textbook dump.
📌 Fun fact: If it closes above 87K on a higher timeframe, we could see a bullish reversal signal. Otherwise, grab your helmet, because we’re going down. 🪂
PRICE TARGETS
📉 Bearish targets:
1. 80.140K
2. 76.600K
3. 74.000K
4. 70.000K
5. 66.000K (if we hit this, light a candle for crypto) 🔥
📈 Bullish targets:
1. 86.700K
2. 89.000K
3. 92.000K
4. 95.000K
5. 102.000K (if we get there, big party and we all buy a Lambo… toy version) 🚗
If you enjoyed this analysis, support PipGuard , because financial information served with sarcasm and expertise is the only kind worth reading. Follow, boost, and comment, or I’ll send you a chart with invisible candles on a white background. 🎭
Until next time, may volatility be with you!
PipGuard 🚀
BRIEFING Week #11 : Are we done ? (nope)Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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ETH/USDT – Ascending channel. Breakdown below support?Ethereum - is a smart contract platform that allows developers to build decentralized applications (DApps) on its blockchain.
CoinMarketCap : #2
↗️ Ethereum is moving within an ascending channel, and the bullish trend remains intact.
Inside the channel, there are two triangles.
The first triangle, with a base of 88%, has played out—its third wave broke through the triangle.
Liquidity grabs and shakeouts before the growth in the inner channel zones are marked with yellow circles.
Currently, we see a mirrored situation with a new triangle, this time with a 156% base. However, if this pattern plays out, it will break the ascending channel.
At the moment, the price has been dragged below the channel support, and there is a lot of negative sentiment in the news and opinions. Few believe in an upward move, and many have been liquidated. To me, this looks like a strong trigger.
⤵️The bearish scenario implies a -61% drop. (A less likely scenario.)
I've marked everything on the chart—consider this in your trading strategy. Remember, there's a lot of negativity around Ethereum, just like with all altcoins...
I also believe that on the monthly chart, it will end up being just a wick of the candle.
BNXUSDT Breakout Imminent: High Volume Signals Potential 50-60%BNXUSDT is currently forming a strong breakout pattern, showing signs of bullish momentum. The trading volume is increasing, indicating that investors are actively participating in this move. With a solid structure and a breakout looking imminent, BNXUSDT could be set for a significant rally. Traders are closely watching this level, anticipating a strong price surge once the resistance is broken.
Technical analysis suggests that the price is consolidating just below a key breakout point. A successful breakout could trigger a sharp upward movement, with potential gains ranging from 50% to 60%+. The combination of strong volume and market interest further supports this bullish scenario. As the buying pressure builds up, BNXUSDT could soon enter a high-momentum phase, attracting more investors looking for profitable opportunities.
With the crypto market showing increased volatility and potential, BNXUSDT remains a promising asset to watch. Traders and investors are advised to keep an eye on this pair as it moves closer to its breakout zone. A confirmed breakout with sustained volume could validate the anticipated bullish run, offering traders a lucrative upside potential.
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✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is your opinion about this coin)
Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
SCRT/USDT – Testing support. Will the scenario repeat?Secret - is a privacy-focused blockchain built on Cosmos. Its smart contracts, called Secret Contracts, enable DApps to utilize private data on Secret, similar to how smart contracts function on other blockchains. However, Secret Contracts transmit encrypted data through encrypted channels without exposing it. This is made possible by encrypting the contract state during execution.
All the charts are cropped, so I found a more complete historical chart of the coin and overlaid it to the left.
This coin has dropped by approximately -98% since its distribution. To put it in perspective, if you had invested $1,000 , you would now have only $20 …
We observe a formation resembling an internal channel (120%) and an external channel (280%) . The price is once again being squeezed near support at the lowest price zones available on Binance (where the main liquidity is).
My previous trading idea played out successfully in three zones .
Profit from the time of publication to the squeeze: +270%.
The price is moving within a descending channel , but at the same time, the sideways range I previously anticipated is also forming. Here, it’s crucial to adapt to the situation.
Right now, the entire market is experiencing a pullback toward support levels .
I've marked potential final liquidity grab zones on the chart—consider these in your trading strategy.
Also, I want to highlight how negative the news sentiment is at the moment. No one believes in a rally. But that's exactly how it always looks in similar price reversal zones !)))
CVX/USDT – Is the scenario repeating? Continuing to work.The previous trading idea has played out with 3 out of 4 marked zones reached.
We saw a false breakout from the descending channel, followed by a pullback in line with the overall market—returning to the channel’s support zone.
I’ve noticed a potential formation of either a diamond pattern or an expanding triangle, but we’ll see how it plays out further.
Regarding declines and support zones:
-10.71% drop to the support of the descending channel.
-26.27% drop to the anticipated support of the expanding triangle.
-50% drop, likely as a squeeze under extremely negative news.
Regarding growth and resistance zones:
+65% rise to the resistance of the internal channel.
+110% rise to the resistance of the external channel (and if a diamond pattern forms, then its boundary).
+246% rise as a second attempt to break out of the descending channel.
+440% rise as a potential realization of diamond pattern pricing (if it forms).
All of this should be factored into your trading strategy, even the less likely scenarios.
I'll share the execution of the previous trading idea in my TG. I've also marked it on the chart.
AltSeason Begins If/When...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🔹 Let’s keep it simple and straightforward:
📈 Altseason begins if/when ETH breaks above its falling channel (in red) 📉 and the $2,000 round number.
⚠️ Meanwhile, further downside is expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
UniversOfSignals | Ethereum – The Never Ending Bear Trend?👋 Welcome to the UniversOfsignals channel!
Current Market Structure – Bearish Trend Dominates
Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a well-defined downtrend, consistently rejecting imbalance zones (highlighted in blue on the chart). Each time price reaches one of these zones, we see a rejection followed by a move lower. This has been a repeated pattern, confirming that sellers remain in control and that ETH is struggling to gain any meaningful bullish momentum.
The presence of a clear descending trendline further supports this bearish structure, as ETH continues to respect this resistance and fails to break higher. Until we see a strong shift in price action, the trend remains intact, and lower prices are likely.
Rejection of Imbalance Zones – No Bullish Confirmation Yet
The imbalance zones act as strong resistance, and so far, every attempt to push above them has resulted in rejection. This means that until one of these imbalance zones is invalidated (i.e., price breaks and holds above one), we cannot consider any bullish scenario.
Each rejection strengthens the bearish case, reinforcing the idea that ETH is likely to continue making lower lows and lower highs. Unless buyers step in with significant strength and push ETH beyond a key resistance level, the safest approach is to assume that the downtrend will continue.
When Can We Consider a Bullish Scenario?
For ETH to turn bullish, we need to see at least one of the following:
Breakout above an imbalance zone – This would indicate a shift in market structure and potential strength from buyers.
Higher highs and higher lows forming – A sign that momentum is shifting away from the current bearish trend.
Price reclaiming key resistance levels – If ETH can reclaim lost ground and sustain above it, it may indicate a potential reversal.
Until one of these conditions is met, there is no reason to be bullish. Any upside move that fails to break a key resistance should be considered a shorting opportunity rather than a bullish reversal.
Key Bearish Confirmation – Lower Prices Expected
As long as ETH keeps rejecting imbalance zones and making lower highs, the market structure remains bearish. The next downside targets are likely to be the previous support levels, with price potentially dropping towards the $1,600-$1,500 range if selling pressure continues.
The projected red price movement on the chart suggests that ETH could consolidate for a bit before continuing its descent. This aligns with the current trend and price behavior.
Historical Context – ETH at 2-Year Lows
ETH is currently trading at a price level last seen two years ago, reflecting significant weakness. Despite temporary rebounds, price action remains suppressed, and we are not seeing the kind of momentum that would indicate a strong recovery.
While some may view this as a “cheap” buying opportunity, the reality is that ETH is showing no bullish strength in its current price action. Without a confirmed trend reversal, simply being at a low price does not make it a good buy. Catching a falling knife is risky, and it is better to wait for confirmation before considering long positions.
Final Thoughts – Patience is Key
ETH remains in a strong bearish trend, and every rejection confirms lower prices.
No bullish confirmation yet – price needs to break a key level before we consider upside potential.
Expect further downside unless market structure changes.
ETH is at historical low levels, but low prices alone do not mean bullish momentum is coming.
As traders, the best approach is to wait for confirmation and trade with the trend. Until ETH proves otherwise, the bearish structure remains dominant, and downside targets remain in play.
__________________________________________
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UniversOfSignals | NEAR: Weekly Timeframe 👋 Welcome to UniversOfSignals !
Today's analysis will focus on NEAR, a Layer 1 and AI crypto project with a market cap of $3.17 billion, ranking 31st on CoinMarketCap.
📅 Weekly Timeframe
In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, following an upward leg from $0.993 to $8.298, a range box formed over a year from $3.615 to $8.298. Recently, with the market's downturn, the price finally broke below this box's floor at $3.615.
✅ Currently, the price has pulled back to this area after breaking $3.615 and has dropped to $2.574, where it's currently forming a supportive green candle.
⚡️ The $2.574 area is robust, showing positive price response, and it remains to be seen what happens next. If this support breaks, the price could move towards lower areas like $1.830 and $0.993.
🔑 Conversely, if the price can sustain this support and move above $3.615, a significant upward momentum could enter the market, potentially driving the price at least up to $8.298. A break above $8.298 could see the next target at $16.839.
📊 Market volume has increased following the range break, which is natural as the price has finally moved out of a range, and increased volume has entered. Continuation of this volume increase could heighten the likelihood of breaking $2.574.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
universOfSignals | NEAR: Breaking Boundaries in Layer1 AI Crypto👋 Welcome to universOfSignals !
Today's analysis will focus on NEAR, a Layer 1 and AI crypto project with a market cap of $3.17 billion, ranking 31st on CoinMarketCap.
📅 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, we can observe more detailed price movements.
💫 As seen, the main support at $3.615 has broken, and subsequently, a price box formed between $2.804 and $3.615. Coinciding with an RSI divergence, the floor at $2.804 broke, and the price dropped to $2.161.
🎲 Currently, the price is correcting back towards the $2.804 area. Market volume is rising, and the RSI divergence trigger has not yet been activated, indicating ongoing bearish momentum.
💥 If the RSI breaks the 50 area, the divergence could impact the market and eliminate the bearish momentum. This would be the first sign of a trend change, but the main ceiling at $3.615 must be broken to confirm a trend reversal.
📉 For short positions, breaking the $2.161 area is suitable, and if this area breaks, the price could drop to $1.682. For long positions, breaking $2.804 is a risky trigger, with the main trigger at $3.615 for a more solid position.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Potential Path of the Altcoin Market?Trading Family,
To say that our altcoin market has been disappointing would be the understatement of the year. While there definitely have been some winners (I have held Solana through the $8 low), the majority have been a large disappointment. In fact, the last I read, only 42 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin since the bear market bottom was put in. This is an incredible stat to think about and very telling. Altcoin traders have a difficult task in beating the BTC hodl'ers for sure.
However, recently there have been some hidden indications that our altcoin market will soon increase our odds of success.
First of all, Bitcoin's low fees. Low fees on the Bitcoin blockchain is often a hidden health indicator for the coin signaling weak demand. People often see low fees as a positive thing. But what's actually happening here is that there is low demand for transacting on the chain, therefore, in order to increase the demand, transaction fees are forced down.
Weaker demand does seem to correlate with what the BTC dominance chart is showing us.
You can see from the chart that we have a large sell side liquidity block that has formed, indicating large sell side volume in dominance. Additionally, my indicator has flashed a red dot, signaling that it is time for dominance to drop. We also have our RSI and Macd, crossing down. And if we break from that channel, dominance drop momentum should accelerate.
This brings me to our TOTAL3 chart which is all altcoins excluding Ethereum. The chart is showing us that we have reached an extremely critical support trendline. Price is currently bouncing from it. Additionally, there are large volumes of buyers at this point. You can observe this by the VRVP candles and the liquidity blocks indicator. But contrary to BTC.D in which the RSI and Macd were crossing down, TOTAL3 shows our RSI and Macd crossing up! This is bullish for alts.
Finally, it is a great sign to see that our "M" pattern has looked to have completed right at our point of support.
I have drawn a projected pathway from here. In the first part of our next week, we may see a bit more pump. News of the passing continuing resolution here in the U.S. is still trickling out. Monday, as stock traders jump back in, I would imagine we see more pump as traders feel good about the averted gov't shutdown. This may trickle into Tuesday. But then Wed. is the Fed's day. We are expecting further pause to interest rate. Everyone will be listening to the Fed speak and parsing every syllable that is uttered from J. Pow's tongue. What is says and the bias that is interpreted will be key. I am expecting mostly a non-event here. Which means that bullish bias may wane once again. Crypto, mostly altcoins, really only pump on good news. But negative and even neutral news is a sell to sideways event. Thus, I expect we may hit another local top around Wed. afternoon at which point the altcoin market starts to sell a bit again OR it simply continues sideways again for a few more weeks. Sooner or later though, I believe we are headed towards that 1.3 trillion resistance. It is worthwhile considering to stay in a holding pattern unless we drop below our all-important support. Watch this line closely and draw it on your charts. It will be key!
✌️Stew
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin at a Crossroads
Bitcoin has reached a key support zone after its recent decline and is now in recovery mode. We expect this upward movement to continue until it reaches the identified resistance level, targeting the $95,000 range.
At this point, two potential scenarios are in play, as shown in the chart:
1–Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin successfully breaks the $95,000 resistance, the path for further upside will be clear, and higher targets could be reached.
2–Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break this key resistance, a correction and decline toward lower support levels may follow.
The next move for Bitcoin depends on how it reacts at the resistance level.
What are your thoughts on the upcoming price action?
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Why EURUSD is still Bullish? Detailed Fundaments and technicals EURUSD is showing strong bullish momentum, currently trading around 1.087 and bouncing as predicted. The pair has respected key support levels, confirming the continuation of the **uptrend**. With increasing buying pressure, we anticipate further upside movement toward the main target of 1.1200. The **bullish structure remains intact**, and if this momentum sustains, eurusd could soon hit the projected target.
From a technical perspective, the pair has formed a solid base near recent support, aligning with key **fibonacci retracement levels** and previous demand zones. A break above **1.0900 psychological resistance** will add further confirmation to the bullish bias, leading to a potential rally toward **1.1000 and beyond**. Traders should look for volume confirmation and price action signals for additional entry opportunities.
On the fundamental side, the **us dollar is facing slight weakness**, primarily due to shifting Federal Reserve expectations and lower bond yields. Meanwhile, **eurozone economic data** has shown resilience, supporting the euro’s strength. If risk sentiment remains positive and economic conditions continue improving, eurusd could maintain its bullish trajectory and test higher resistance levels.
Overall, eurusd is still in a bullish phase, and with strong buying momentum, the price is on track to reach the **1.1200 target**. Traders should monitor key levels and market sentiment for potential breakout confirmations.
Is #XLM Setting Up for a Bull Trap Before a Major Drop?Yello, Paradisers! Is XLMUSD gearing up for a breakout, or is this just a classic liquidity grab before the next major dump? Let’s break it down.
💎Right now, #XLMUSDT is testing a minor resistance at $0.28464, a level where price has repeatedly struggled to push higher. While there is a possibility of a breakout, the presence of strong liquidity around the unmitigated supply zone at $0.31917 suggests that any move higher could be a trap before a significant drop. If price does manage to break above this resistance, traders should be cautious it’s likely just a liquidity grab before a larger move to the downside.
💎Once the price reaches the unmitigated supply zone, a rejection is expected, leading to a downward move toward the key support zone at $0.22699. This level has historically been a strong demand area where buyers could step in, potentially causing a temporary bounce or consolidation before any further downside.
💎As CRYPTOCAP:XLM moves lower, it’s crucial to watch volume activity. If the decline happens with high volume, it will confirm strong selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a deeper drop. However, if the price approaches $0.22699 with low volume, it could indicate a lack of seller conviction, leading to a short-term bounce before resuming the downtrend.
💎The EMA 200 continues to act as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook. As long as price fails to hold above $0.28464 or gets rejected from the supply zone, the bearish setup remains intact. In that case, a move toward $0.22699 and potentially even $0.19151 becomes highly probable. Watching volume reactions at these key levels will be essential to confirm the next move.
💎The only scenario that could invalidate this bearish setup is a strong close above $0.36172 with high volume. That would signal a potential shift in market structure and could indicate renewed bullish momentum.
Paradisers, patience and precision are key in this market. Let the levels guide you, trade strategically, and stay disciplined. Avoid emotional decisions this market punishes the impatient and rewards those who stay focused.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
MDT ANALYSIS📊 #MDT Analysis
✅There is a formation of Descending Channel Pattern in daily chart. Currently #MDT is in bearish way.
After a breakout of the pattern and major resistance level we would see a bullish momentum otherwise the price will drop more 🧐
👀Current Price: $0.02980
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #MDT price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#MDT #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)
Let's take a look at local movements on INDEX:BTCUSD .
Since last post Bitcoin moved in our favor, reached 38,500$.
We have a strong bounce here, which is heading towards upper 40s as long as daily close was above big red candle.
There is a probability, that Bitcoin is going to draw lower high which can be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8 (Golden Pocket) Fib. In confluence we have several magnets at this range.
Possible stop losses around 43,500$
Fair Value Gap around 44,500$. Possible liquidations Across top 3 exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit) totaling around 4.0 Bln. USD. (This number covers last 30 Days Data)
Hence we should take into consideration, that huge amount of liquidity is sitting down in the previous reaccumulation zone. (Suggesting to check out Liquidity Heatmap . Putting link because I am not able to add screenshot.)
- - - - - - - - -
Next I want to mention one weird thread I bumped into on Twitter.
It’s about HTX (ex Huobi), which is owned by Justin Sun. They turned off their proof-of-reserves system, what hints about their insolvency. Onchain analysis say that they have problems with ETH holdings.
Also this is not connected to only HTX, things are being wrong with TUSD and stUSDT (Stacked USDT receipt on TRON Network).
For further details about this event please read thread from adamscochran on twitter . Hence there was around 600 Mln. USDT transfer to JustlandDao yesterday.
In the end, I want to mention, that there is no 100% accurate analysis.
We are dealing with probabilities, just with analysis we are shifting probabilities to our favor.
Best Wishes.