SPX at Great Depression and Dot-Com Crash LevelsCurrent deviation from long term mathematical model at the top of trend only reached twice in the last 100 years; once during the Great Depression and once during the top of the Dot-Com bubble.
Mathematical model = Ratio of Close to smoothed 300 Week SMA (SMA 10 of SMA 10 of SMA 70 Week Close)
Cryptobubble
$COIN is FINISHED! | SHORT ALL CRYPTODespite the best efforts of celebrities and juvenile CEOs, the crypto fantasy is coming to an abrupt end!
For those of you who have followed my crypto coverage (not many - lol), you will recall that I have been steadfast in my "short-crypto" perspective since posting the "Bitcoin top" way back on October 15th, 2021 - linked to this post.
Although we have seen a pathetic retrace, thanks to the obscene green new scam / inflation reduction act, my analysis prevails. This fantasy bubble is going to devastate financial institutions and private citizens alike.
Moreover, in addition to the disastrous inflationary policies of the current political administration, we have seen institutional financial entities increasingly involved with cryptocurrency in recent years. Specifically the ETF-ing of crypto, while presumed "bullish" by many, is actually the worst thing that could have happened for the crypto fantasy club. WHY? Simple: ETFs compete for return, amongst one anther. To that end, as the global economy slips deeper into recession, the fraudulent celebrity-pumped crypto bubble is low-hanging fruit; it will be plundered without mercy!
🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️
2000 vs 2022Some similarities between 2000 vs 2022
1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33%
2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now
3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now
4. Mass retail participation
5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?)
6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com)
7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com)
What to wait for
1. Holding or not 40SMA!!!
2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months
3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended
4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections
When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system!
I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent!
I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
The Celcius bubbleDear investors,
I'm also a user of the celcius network staking platform. and like most of you people i'm looking into buying some celcius tokens, to get more % on my crypto.
But looking at the growth of this project, i'm not really sure this is the moment to buy. Crypto is volatile and people tend to forget this sometimes.
I really don't know what's next for the celcius token, A big fall? It will come, but how high will it go? This reminds me a little bit of the crypto.com token, people invested lot's of money into it, to get the best % return and the token felt pretty hard in september.
With these project I've always seen a big fall afterwards, will this be different? let's see what time brings. For now, i'm just keeping 10% on my stablecoins.