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Mapping The Crypto Market Cycle - Part 8 Good day everyone. I am continuing to make an effort to "map" the cryptocurrency market cycle through phases, represented by boxes on the above chart. These phases are determined by the interplay between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market during the previous cycle. In my last update, I suggested that perhaps, we were about to enter Phase 3. However, it took much longer for Bitcoin to finally make a new weekly high. Right now, Bitcoin has confirmed this new weekly high (since 2019), and appears to be on its way to a new peak. This means Bitcoin could finally be in Phase 3. In the previous bull market, Bitcoin did NOT test the previous all-time-high in Phase 3. If things are to repeat, Bitcoin will top out somewhere between here and $17k, perhaps. Then, alts would catch up and some may even venture close to all-time-high faster than many expect. Here is my previous Market Cycle update: In this analysis, I have changed a few things: 1) My projection is drawn in light blue, so that comparison becomes easier moving forward. 2) I reduced my projection for the altcoin market. 30-40 Trillion seems unreasonable. 3) I extended the current cycle slightly, due to how long the market spent in Phase 2. As mentioned above, I believe we could finally be in Phase 3. It may not last long. It could just be a matter of weeks before Bitcoin tops out and consolidates for a while. Or, this cycle could deviate more from the last cycle - and in this case, Bitcoin could test all-time-high during this impulse. And there's always the possibility of market collapse. No one knows! But this projection is based on past behavior, and I'm curious to see if it happens again in similar fashion. Previous cycle, showing Phase 3 in the broader context: Bitcoin dominance would not truly break down until Bitcoin TESTS the previous all-time-high for the first time (Phase 5). Alts would need to make a substantial jump somewhat soon, and this would mark the beginning of Phase 4. Here is a new projection for Dominance. generally, I would like to see that red downtrend held on the monthly timeframe. What happened last cycle with Dominance: Here is also an interesting comparison. Note the similarities between Ethereum's first cycle and Bitcoin's first cycle: This study is not to dictate where price will go. Of course, I have had to make some adjustments over time. This study is to see if there is any merit in how I'm seeing the interplay between Bitcoin and altcoins. I believe it to be important for the future of this new market. For example, there is always reasoning behind what happens, price wise. For example, it makes sense altcoins wouldn't rise so much until Bitcoin reaches the previous all-time-high. That would be the moment where media focuses a huge amount of attention on Bitcoin, and inevitably retail traders/investors would be driven towards alternative cryptocurrencies, particularly those with lower fees and faster speeds. Without that sort of media attention, it's hard for the rest of the market to grow at the moment. BUT THIS MAY CHANGE, as cryptocurrencies become more tied in with the global economic narrative. This is not financial advice, but purely for educational and speculative purposes. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by VictorCobra
If This Structure Holds, ETH Can Target $700Just a quick long trade idea. Haven't done one of these in a while. Bitcoin dominance is looking a bit overheated, while Ethereum seems into be in a re-accumulation pattern. We can observe higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart as Bitcoin has rallied above $13k. As long as the market holds here, I am targeting the $600-700 range for Ethereum, not seen for quite some time. This is also based on my idea that the 100 day Moving-Average should generally hold during a bull market. If it fails, I may be need to re-assess my bullish view. Entry: $380-390 Bullish targets/Take profit areas: $550 $694 Stop Loss: $360 I flip bearish if this structure fails to hold. In that case, I may post a short idea. Ethereum has a lot of room for downside here, so this is not a large position. Bearish targets: $373 (100d MA) $360 $330 $295 (200d MA) $215 This is not financial advice! Just curious to see how this plays out. This is for speculative, entertainment, and educational purposes only. -Victor Cobra
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by VictorCobra
Taking a Bet on Breaking The Long Term Downtrend (XRP)I'm also going to post this trade, because why not? I'm trying to get a handle on futures and develop a strategy that works well for me. Not risking a huge amount (some of you may know, I'm not much of a day-trader). But it's getting to the point in the cycle where trading some small portion of my portfolio may not be a terrible idea. TOTAL2 has held the 100d MA (as I said should happen if the market is in a bullish trend). These are mostly for practice, but they are real trades. It seems as though XRP is aiming to break the long term downtrend. On the weekly, the downtrend is very clear, and perfectly respected. XRP continues to get rejected at the 100d MA (green), while finding support at the 50 and 200 day Moving Averages. This is also the longest XRP has been above the 200 day MA since the beginning of 2018. It's possible the asset is building a flat base here, and can shoot up pretty quickly. But let's face it, longing XRP is a bad idea most of the time. Catching a pump is fairly difficult, and usually traps buyers. So, even if it continues onwards towards $0.78 or $1.00, I will take 50% profit at 32 cents, and then re-assess. I'm also fully prepared to be stopped out of this trade. ENTRY: 0.2490 TARGETS: 0.27 0.32 0.50 STOP LOSS: Adjusted, depending on price action. Currently 0.2477. On the downside, if XRP loses the 200d MA again and Bitcoin heads back towards 10-13k, I can see XRP heading all the way back down to some much lower levels. So a stop loss is probably the way to go here. This is not financial advice. This is meant for personal use, speculation, and entertainment. -Victor Cobra
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by VictorCobra
Victor Cobra's REAL Crypto Update 9.15.20Finally, I was able to make some time to create a video update. I didn't get to cover all the coins I wanted to cover, since there were some other things I really wanted to talk about. I was only able to cover Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and NANO, but I talked extensively about the market from a philosophical standpoint. I also used analysis to re-affirm some of my projections. EDIT: I did not mention this in my video, but check out the strength of the bounce off the 100d MA on TOTAL (the entire crypto market cap). Compare this with March 7th, when the market dropped straight through. Also the volume looks quite healthy, in terms of "dip buying" here. Hope you enjoy! This is not financial advice. This is meant for entertainment, education, and speculation. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by VictorCobra
4
Crypto VS. USD - Victor Cobra's Crypto Update 9.10.20This is my first crypto update in a while. I've begun my graduate studies while trying to maintain some part time work, and unfortunately I don't have much time to write extensive posts at the moment, but here we go! Finally, the market has corrected. My previous analysis showed how it was safe to assume a pullback towards the 100 day Moving Average at some point in the near future. TOTAL (the total crypto market cap, including Bitcoin) has achieved this, but TOTAL2 has stopped just short. Regardless, if this were 2016, right now would have been an excellent point to buy. Here is my last analysis: It seems that the crypto narrative depends on the Dollar's weakness. In the main chart, DXY is still somewhat trapped in a downtrend channel. A breakout could mean an interruption in the uptrend for crypto. You can clearly see that in the 2016-2017 bull run, DXY (the U.S. Dollar currency index) was also on a decline. In the below chart, I've drawn some speculations as to where markets may be headed in the next few years, if no major fiscal policies change. I do think it's fairly likely that DXY declines at least towards the low 80's, but it's important to note that major events and policy changes can shift the narrative at any moment. Right now, the narrative in the mind of the investor is that the U.S. Dollar will continue to decrease in value, and assets will continue to increase in value. Cryptocurrencies are assets. But maybe they're becoming more than that. Regardless, people put dollars into assets to grow their dollars, or at least protect them against inflation. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens after the U.S. presidential election. If Trump gets elected, I think confidence will continue to be lost in the U.S. Dollar, but if Biden wins, he may create more programs that spend government Dollars. Either way, the Dollar can continue to decline. Even if a higher tax rate is instituted on the wealthy, and wages increase for the lower/middle class, the prices of goods in Dollars may increase, which could also coincide with continued currency devaluation. But I see this scenario as the most likely to end the asset bubble. Either that, or a revolution. And we're getting into that political territory now. Needless to say, it's really hard to predict the future...but some things do repeat. I still think there is likely to be a large depression for asset prices similar to the Great Depression. In that scenario, does crypto have a place? It seems dangerously correlated to traditional assets at the moment, and that's because only the privileged Americans can afford to own any significant amount of cryptocurrency. Some may argue that their value would have to crash heavily before the everyday person begins using them. And how crypto looks in the future may be very different from today. Crypto needs to be around for much longer in order to really understand its place. Analysis makes an attempt to predict future scenarios based on current behavior, but the irony is we'll have much more data as time goes on. I do think that if a crypto bull run fails to materialize soon, the market will need much longer to change and evolve. In any case, this next chart compares the current price action for alts with price action from 2016. Here, the channel was held for the most part. Eventually it broke to the upside. The first major wave took alts from the $37 Million valuation to the $134 Million valuation. That's a 3.6x increase. The pullback was large - roughly 40%. That was the last time the altcoin market ever saw a valuation that low. If that happened today, this might have been the last buying opportunity for many coins before the market enters a true bull run. But that's only going by what happened in the past. Here it is with just the Moving Averages, showing the touch of the 100d MA (green). BUT As we know, these ascending channels can break down, and when they do, they can indicate a much longer bottoming period. Take what happened in 2019, for example. It looked as if the market was about to take off, but altcoins were much weaker than Bitcoin at that time, and their weakness caused them to extend their bear market by at least a year. If it happened again, it would be a huge blow to the cryptocurrency space. Everyone wants a bull run here, and if it doesn't materialize, many will wonder what the catalyst would have to be. It's important to note the new high reached on the recent peak, when compared with 2019. The monthly chart for the TOTAL crypto market valuation looks almost too healthy. Perfectly holding the 9 month EMA (orange). The current monthly candle also looks fairly similar to July 2016. This was very early on in the bull market. I've been following Bitcoin dominance for quite a while, successfully calling the top last summer. After breaking down from the long term uptrend, dominance has continued to look weak. It's even following the yellow trajectory I drew back in July. In this case, it can just continue its decline towards the 50% area. It looks horrible on most timeframes. Especially the monthly: Of course, if things start to look drastically different, I will update and reassess. The main chart shows bullish and bearish projections with targets in green and pink. This is not financial advice! This is my own personal record of my analysis, so I can look back on it in the future and either laugh or cry. Please use this only for your education, entertainment, and speculation. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by VictorCobra
4
When Will It Drop??? Buying Near Moving Averages Since my last post, the cryptocurrency market has continued to charge along without making any extensive correction. Even if the market is entering a new bullish cycle, it's important to remember that harsh 30-40% corrections can occur at any point. Right now, both the total market cap and the total altcoin market cap are in really tough resistance areas, as clearly shown on my charts. These are important levels for the market to break in order to confirm long term bullish price appreciation. Given the market is in a sensitive area, I would not be surprised to see a large retrace soon, as shown in the righthand chart, before any continuation higher. So I'd be prepared for a test of the 100 day MA (green) for both indexes. Of course, this may just not happen yet. Back when Bitcoin was below $10K, I noted the possibility of a big shakeout below $8K, but also mentioned that it might not materialize. It's very hard to predict (or bet on) sizable pullbacks during a bull market. I think it's most important to look at horizontal levels and moving averages. The point here would be NOT to sell any long term positions here, but buy on a pullback to the 100 day Moving Average (green) or below. This occurred numerous times during the previous bull run. There was even a test of the 200 day MA early on. Moving Averages are important because they prove to market participants that people are optimistic about price. Buying at MA's shows confidence in the market, since the assumption is that the price should stay above the long term average, at least until the end of the current new cycle. Swing trading is fun, but should only be done with a small portion of the long term portfolio. The goal would be to add on a sizable dip. But the dip might not occur until prices reach the higher resistance levels, noted on these charts. The bullish targets (green) are based on previously broken long term trends (light blue) and important horizontal levels from the previous bull market. In the event that these targets are reached sooner rather than later, I'll reassess the market based on how all the indicators are looking. This is not financial advice! This is meant for education, speculation, and entertainment only. Enjoy! -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by VictorCobra
The Great NANO BreakoutIt's been a while, Nando. Good to see you. Now, what do we have here? A breakout from a VERY long downtrend channel, followed by consolidation near $1.00. NANO has lagged behind the market a bit, but I have a feeling it's still on many people's radar, considering it has actually held much of its gains from 2017 (still 100x up, which is more than Bitcoin). Many only remember its rise to $37 and then its crash to $0.70. So, here we are. Nano is poised for very large move to the upside, as long as the rest of the market remains stable, with Bitcoin above $10.5K. NANO has finally reclaimed the 50 day Moving Average (red), while the 9 day EMA is close to crossing above it. If NANO can continue to hold here and break above $1.10, I think it could melt some faces off. The chart also looks pretty similar to Bitcoin's bull flag before it broke out. On top of that, many alts have already confirmed my theory that they had just been in long bottom accumulation periods, similar to Bitcoin in 2015. If you ignore the giant shakeout from March, which sent Nano as low as $0.25 through a stop-loss cascade, the chart looks pretty healthy, with support generally held above $0.70-0.80. I finally started increasing my NANO position again after March 12th, since it got back above $0.70 fairly quickly. It's still one of my only 2 coins not in profit overall. Conditions: 1) NANO will need to hold above the 50d MA and allow the 9d EMA to cross above. 2) NANO will need to break $1.10 CONVINCINGLY. Invalidation: 1) Short term, if NANO breaks below $0.90 and sustains. 2) Greater invalidation if NANO breaks below $0.60. Let's see! If the breakout occurs, price targets are shown on this chart. It can indeed go as high as $4.50. Just look at what happened to VeChain. This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, entertainment, and education only. -Victor Cobra
NLong
by VictorCobra
4
PUMPS Everwhere, are we in ALT SZN just yet?Unless you are salty because you are missing gains; it looks clear that the Altcoins have been steadily gaining momentum for some time. HOWEVER, Some will disagree because they are simply missing out on these moves and because it is unlikely that we will have an Alt Szn where everything pumps just as we did before because people are buying smarter now and with the current economic situation no one is stupidly throwing money around- there have been enough -100% return IPOs/SCAMS and Pump and dumps for people to have learnt their lesson- we might be in an Alt Szn but not the one where every single shitcoin pumps- we may never get that. Accept it. -Megalodon Whales (Rahim) As usual enjoyed charting this for you, you are welcome to share your ideas below :) COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD CRYPTOCAP:ETH
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D
by BoSukas
1