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BTC Bulls Derailed BTC had a bull break yesterday which appeared to favor the daily trend change and follow through, but it was met by a big bear spike in volume and 4%+ drop in a few hours. This has completely shifted momentum and led to BTC being on the verge of breaking the recent daily higher low. We would need to see BTC bulls break $7,225 this morning to regain their short term control. With a break of $7,115 we look to 7,000 and the inability for a daily trend change to occur for bulls. Currently in a small starter position in the upper $7,200s with a tight stop if $7,115 breaks. Back to patiently waiting for clarity on the daily if that were to happen. liking the 2D chart for clarity if we see a support break. Glad to hear crypto youtubers are
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC 4 Hour Higher Low Watch BTC Bulls keeping control ever since the 4H equilibrium broke bullish. We are watching for this inside bar to be set and the bulls to try and keep the 4H uptrend going with a new higher low and potential bull flag. Keep in mind per my criteria the daily trend has still not changed with a clear higher low pivot into a higher high. We will certainly anticipate a daily higher low is the most likely result once we lose the 4H uptrend for the first time on this move. BTC pairings of ETH and LTC remain very bearish while BTC bulls keep strength. This further increases the odds the BTC.D dominance chart is a monthly bull flag. Big picture we are watching for the monthly higher low to be set and if we get a daily higher low and HH into January the stage will be set for that to be the case.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC Sideways Weak BouncesJust like the post yesterday shown on the hourly, we now see it on the 4H where the "bounces" are not going anywhere but sideways and it is not the price reaching EMA resistance... it is the EMA resistance reaching the price. Bears still have full control looking for a 4H lower high. I personally had some bids set yesterday as my criteria for being interested in a bounce were close to being hit... daily RSI mid 20s, 4H RSI low 20s, but we did not break the $6,526 support so none of my bids filled. At this point 4H RSI has cooled off enough for me to pull my bids, and patiently wait for at least another leg down. I have a deeper fishing bid that I would be surprised if it filled, and I will see where we stand if we do see another leg down. Establish those game plans! The less decision making you have to do in the heat of the moment... the better.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC Sideways after Dump We used to see dumps, and bounces that led to tests of EMA resistance on the hourly and 4H charts. Now... we just trade sideways and wait for the EMA resistance to drop down and catch up to the price. This shows me a lack of bull buying. Currently testing hourly EMA resistance and if we get over it, we will zoom out and watch 4H EMA resistance looking for a lower high to form. Bears have no reason to cover at this point and I will remain on the sidelines until a break of $6,500 and daily oversold conditions, or a bullish trend change on the daily.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
The Big Caps Are Sneaking Out of Their Downtrends (ETH + XRP)We've got some nice moves for a couple of cryptocurrencies (XTZ and ATOM today), but I'm still really paying attention to these big caps because they have the most liquidity out of any other altcoin. We've seen OBV (on-balance volume) continue to skyrocket for the TOTAL2 chart, which could mean that big buyers are actively entering positions on the top two altcoins. ETH and XRP doing well would also be a very good sign for the broader crypto market. So even if you don't support these projects, I think it's in everyone's best interest for them to do well. I think they can start moving up relatively soon, at least in terms of USD value. They seem to be trying to form a pretty solid base here. They just need to get back above the 200w MA, which isn't that far away. This analysis is just to see whether or not their Bitcoin ratios can increase as well. On the main chart, it's clear that both XRP and ETH have been in 2-year downtrends on the log scale against Bitcoin. They both already broke their linear downtrends earlier this year. Usually the linear downtrend breaks before the logarithmic downtrend. Both XRP and ETH have now begun to sneak out of their log downtrends. If we zoom in, you can see that they are both arguably closing daily candles outside these trends for the very first time. With Ethereum, it's a little more ambiguous, but this is how I've drawn it. The one thing that concerns me is that ETH/BTC is about to experience a bearish cross. This has never resulted in positive price appreciation. Overall, both these big caps need to break above their daily moving averages to start looking bullish. But perhaps we're seeing the early signs of a reversal here. In early 2019, Bitcoin broke its linear downtrends on relatively low volume, generally moving slowly sideways and up. That's sort of what we're seeing here with big caps. Potential medium-term targets are marked on the above charts in green. I also recently made a post about why it would be insanely bullish for the altcoin market if Bitcoin dominance broke down from its rising wedge. That post is linked at bottom. This is not financial advice. This is just a speculative chart. I'm curious to see if breaking these downtrends sneakily ends up being a good long term buy signal. As such, this post is for speculation and education only. -Victor Cobra
Long
by VictorCobra
BTC Bulls in a RutWe are currently in a downtrend on the weekly, daily, and 4H time frames, giving complete control to the bears... but we are not seeing any all out dumps or extreme RSI levels. This reminds bears to not get too comfortable, as the recent nature of bull moves the last couple of months have been very hard and fast out of nowhere. Note the 20 day average volume is also declining, which is setting us up for a volume and volatility spike, as tight ranges open up again. I personally will still be on the sidelines patiently waiting for a risk to reward scenario I like, and not interested in any bounces without daily and 4H RSI oversold.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Bulls Cling to Support Still fighting for the daily higher low to try and remain in the equilibrium which would be considered a double bottom at this point if the bulls could pull it off. We have bots battling it out with big wicks in both directions when you zoom in to the hourly chart. If I were more confident in the volume and amount of retail money trading the space I would be making a play off support here... but I am not so I am not going to venture off into bot land to try and make a play. This does not mean you shouldn't, if this support play is one you have been waiting for! We should know by end of today if this support level is going to hold or not.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
Can NANO Prove Itself? The other day, I made a chart comparing some alts that have been doing at least "okay" since August, 2018 and those that have continuously made new lows on their BTC ratios and USD values. Nano is one of those that has not made a significant USD low since then, but it is in danger of doing so if the market can't get it together soon. This is quite impressive for something that is still 97% down from its ATH, given that many other coins have dropped off the map. Nano has continued to have a strong community, which is likely why it's survived up until this point. Nano is a lightweight, zero fee, near-instant competitor to Bitcoin, but it suffers from relatively low awareness and liquidity. Regardless, I think there's a decent bullish setup here if NANO can confirm 9 Week Moving Average support here (bounced perfectly off it today) and break the first orange downtrend line. Then it can head to the secondary downtrend, or at least the 50w MA. In terms of its Bitcoin ratio, it's not TOO much lower than it was during the August '18 capitulation, but it's in danger of rolling back over to the downside here if the weekly Ultimate Oscillator can't break the resistance around 50. It really needs to get above that 2018 low of 1287 for bullish confirmation. On the daily chart, we've begun a slow, low-volume uptrend with support at the 50d MA (red). I'd like to see Nano hold the line and the 50d MA cross over the 200d MA soon. If the 50 and 100d MAs cannot hold, and if Nano can't hold above $0.70, I think it's in danger of becoming one of the "dead alts." That's it! Targets are shown on this chart. This is not financial advice. I'm just posting this in case we do see a breakout for this coin. The crypto market is in a fragile state right now. This is for speculation, observation, and education. -Victor Cobra
NLong
by VictorCobra
3
BTC Hourly EQ trying for daily HLWe are currently very close to $7,080 daily higher low support as the bulls try and defend this level to remain in the tightening daily range. Bulls have to break this hourly equilibrium in their favor today to increase the odds we remain tight on the daily. I would be looking to the MOVE contract for BTC volatility in a few days IF we form this higher low and continue to tighten. We will then be getting to a point where we know a volume and volatility spike are imminent. Bulls still have some proving to do first!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC Patience on the Daily BTC continues to tighten and sometime within the next 3 days or so we will be looking for a volume and volatility spike to break this tightening range. Patiently waiting on the sidelines until then! A bull break will have us zoom out and look for a weekly lower high. A bear break will tell us the monthly higher low is not set yet and we will be looking back to the recent $6,526 low. Avoid shorter term time frames and fake outs when we are tightening on the longer term time frames!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC 4 Hour Equilibrium Watch The major coins continue to tighten up on the daily time frame, looking for a volume and volatility spike this week. Traders are hoping the spike on the daily will come as a result of this current 4H tightening equilibrium breaking. Bulls are looking for a higher low this morning, and we may see continued tightening range on this time frame into tomorrow. Traders can look to play this break and hope the direction the break occurs will get follow through on the daily as well. Personally I will be sticking to what my game plan has been which is simply to wait for the daily range to break before I have interest trading the crypto space again.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
"Good Alts" VS "Dead Alts" Hey guys. I know I said I wouldn't post any more written analysis until the next broader move for the crypto market becomes more apparent. While we patiently wait for the reaction from the 50w/100w bullish MA cross for Bitcoin, I thought I'd take a look at what makes an alt "dead" versus one of the ones that seems likely to survive through the rest of this bottoming period. Above, you can see I've put two coins side by side. In fact, VET and WTC were once considered to be competitors, and perhaps equals by some investors. They are both "supply chain" coins, though VeChain differentiates itself as a platform in a number of ways. Waltonchain (right) has clearly underperformed. This is something I forecasted myself, when I sold my entire WTC position much earlier this year. The reason I sold was NOT due to price action. You can see that even selling based on the chart hasn't always been a foolproof method, since VET briefly made a lower low recently, but bounced impressively afterwards. I sold my WTC position because I thought their marketing blunders would be very difficult to overcome, and I didn't think they were professional enough to compete. And this was AFTER averaging down on it, choosing to ignore the glaring red flags. I eventually made a decision to sell at a loss, expecting that they'd probably get buried. Since I sold, WTC has continued its freefall as other cryptos have held horizontal supports, even though it was already 98% down from its all-time high. It is now 99% down. Yes, it could pump 100% in the near future, but it doesn't seem likely to ever achieve its former glory, price wise. When you look at the VET chart, you can see that VET has actually held the same horizontal support zone for an entire year. It is also back above the lows from August, 2018. Many alts (including big caps like ETH, XRP, and XLM) aren't even above those August 2018 lows. Waltonchain would have to go roughly 400% from current prices to get back comfortably to that zone. This is basically an observational post. It's also to see whether or not specific altcoin performance over the last year will influence future price appreciation. Below, I will make some more comparisons, so you can see how drastic the differences in performance are across the altcoin market: The LINK/USD chart versus the GVT/USD chart almost looks like the complete inverse! ChainLink is up 1000% in the same timeframe that Genesis Vision is down 66-70%! This is an extreme example. GVT is the second altcoin position I dumped over the last year. I sold it in favor of ONT. My ONT position is a little above break even, while GVT is down over 60% since I sold. Perhaps more subtle, you can see that even investing in NANO at the bottom in August 2018 would have saved you losses, compared with Ethereum in the same timeframe. NANO has continuously tested the same horizontal support since then, while Ethereum continues to find resistance at the support from the August, 2018 altcoin capitulation. It should be noted that ETH is at a 90% overall loss since the peak, compared with NANO over 97%. XTZ (Tezos) outperforming NEO: BAT vastly outperforming XLM, which hasn't even been able to retest the August 2018 support since it broke down last November: And lastly, McDaddy Bitcoin outperforming XRP, but not by that wide of a margin. XRP only recently broke down from that support, and Bitcoin came close to testing it recently. Anyway, I find this interesting, particularly since most of what I do is observe and analyze the crypto market. I will continue to post when I can, but things have slowed down considerably. However, altcoins are still behaving very similar to the 2015 crypto bear market bottom. The oscillator divergence is a little bit less extreme this time, which could indicate weakness here, but it's still there. We also have arguably NOT broken this trendline. It really depends on how you draw it. With growth slowing down, I expect this trendline to eventually form a curve, so it's not necessary that it's held perfectly. I do think these trendlines are important when figuring out where price may bounce or get rejected, as evidenced by my perfect top call in June. If we are seeing a long term bottoming period for this market, based on this analysis it is clear that not all alts are created equally. There's also a whole class of alts that pump and dump from the same supports and resistances in each altcoin cycle. Maybe I'll do a separate post on those. Here I will also list my coin positions from biggest to smallest, as well as my lowest and highest buy-in points. I also list my break even point if at a loss. VeChain (VET) - Lowest purchase: $0.0034, current price $0.0069. Up over 100% from bottom. Highest purchase around $5/$0.05 in 2017. Overall break even point around $0.01. Due to its performance over the last month, VET is my largest position right now. Ethereum (ETH) - Lowest purchase: $107, current price $148. Up roughly 30%, including a buy at $130. Position in overall profit. XRP - Only purchase - $0.32. Current price, $0.227. Down 30%. Break even at $0.32 NEO - Average (lowest) buy: $6.00, current price $8.90. Up about 50%. Position in overall profit. NANO - Lowest purchase: $0.80, current price $0.83. Highest purchase $20 in 2017 (ouch!). Break even point around $2.00. Ontology (ONT) - Lowest buy (only purchase) - $0.60. Current price $0.62. Up about 4%. Position in overall profit. Stellar Lumens (XLM) - Lowest buy $0.059. Current price $0.055. Down about 10%. Highest purchase $0.40 in 2017. Break even point around $0.16. Overall loss about 75%. Has held my portfolio down the most. Smartlands (SLT) - Lowest buy $0.30. Current price $0.31. Original purchase at $1 in 2018. Break even point around $0.75. Overall 50% loss. Former positions: : Tronix (TRX) - bought at 240 sats in 2018, sold at 600 sats for NEO, hence my low average buy-in for NEO. I sold TRX because their ecosystem is not user-friendly when compared with NEO/ONT. Waltonchain (WTC) - lowest buy $2. Highest purchase - $25 in 2018. Overall loss, probably close to 80%. Genesis Vision (GVT) - lowest purchase $6. Highest purchase - $27. Overall loss, probably around 50%, even though I sold it for ONT. This crypto thing has been an experiment for me in a number of ways. Above is my personal record. I will emphasize that I am still roughly 50% down on my principle investment. This is with ONLY investing in altcoins since the beginning of 2018. Not terrible (the overall altcoin market is still down 87%), but also really not ideal. I could have easily avoided some losses by selling at least half of all my crypto when I called the top in June. But alas, most of my analysis is for my own education. I do plan on trading more eventually, but when my life situation gets a little more stable (I'm in a big transition period). This is not financial advice. I will continue to use this platform as my investing/crypto journal. Aside from personal use, this is meant for education, speculation, and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
Long
by VictorCobra
DNT/BTC LONG - 106 satsHey everyone! A lot of altcoin setups developing vs BTC at the moment. I'll ignore the highlighted blue section because it looks extremely emotional. At the same time, it enabled the price to consolidate and we are ready for take-off! Nice balance, POC matching the midline and compliant with Fibonacci. And the cherry on top? It was spotted by a community member! Yes, if you know what to look for, you can do it as well. In case you want to become part of the community reach out to me on Twitter or on Discord. Take care, Vlad the Crypto Trader
DLong
by Be_Independent_Tribe
BTC Hourly Remains Tight BTC is still ping ponging in a tightening range as a result from the "Bart" pump, sideways, dump, bounce previous couple days of action. This is showing up as multiple daily inside bars as well just under daily EMA resistance. I personally will not be playing a break of this range, as it is the bigger picture daily range that I am waiting for a break on. I find BTC has not had significant confidence in follow through of breaks on the shorter term time frames recently. Exhibit A is the hourly chart just breaking the lowest price seen in 18 hours, only to bounce right back into the middle of the range. Power to the patient!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders The pattern from yesterday did not confirm and we have dropped to lower lows as a result. From here we will watch the continued 4H lower high pattern, keeping the bears in control as long as it lasts. I personally made a bullish entry $7,270 looking for the 4H trend change. In the end it ended up being a loss of $40 BTC dollars which is nice and manageable. I will go over the trade details more in depth in a video later today. Bulls still looking for a daily higher low to be set and tightening daily range into the weekend, but not daily higher low will be set without a 4H trend change.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC Hourly Bears Little Follow Through We had an hourly double bottom break without much bear follow through and then led straight into a bounce. When I see action like this it tells me the bears are tiring and it now has me scouting for signs of a daily higher low. There is still a lot of work needed (4H trend change) to be confident the higher low has been set, but aggressive bulls are going to start bottom fishing recent supports. As a patient bull I will be keeping an eye on a good risk/reward entry I like, but not forcing anything as the likely result will just be a tightening daily range into the weekend. Bears are still comfortable but they are also making not of the lack of bear follow through. 3 rejections from EMA12 resistance on the 4H chart yesterday is a guide for today's action. ETHBTC trying to put in a daily trend change for the weekly higher low in the weekly equilibrium is also something to pay attention to this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC No Bear Follow Through BTC yesterday formed a double top right at the high of the move, and then dropped to lose the 4H higher low support. This was enough to trigger the stop on my remaining position from $6,555 and lock in profit to be back to all cash. Since then, we can see the bears did not have any meaningful follow through and the break of support with no follow through means zoom out and look for a potential bull flag (12H). If we see another leg up the target will be $8,000, as the bulls hope to get over daily EMA resistances. Right now we are also watching the possibility that we set a 4H lower high on the recovery attempt. Bears are still watching $7,679 resistance, though most bears that entered yesterday have likely already been stopped out unless their entry was on the top fish with resistance. I personally will be sitting on the sidelines until I see a setup I like for re-entry, with no FOMO even if we do see another leg up knowing the daily and weekly charts are in downtrends.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC 4 Hour Trend Change or BustBTC is still trying to confirm the inverse head and shoulders but bulls have to keep it real... SO FAR this has been a disappointing bounce with a lack of follow through. Step 1 is break the 4 hour lower highs, and from there the trend change for the first time in over a week is essential. I am still in my half position from $6,555 that have have been a bit loose with as it is only risking profit at this point. I have put my stop under the recent low $6,850 from here as my line in the sand for bulls to hold for the day. Remember bears have absolutely no pressure on them as long as 4 hour lower highs are the norm. If we were to see bears keep control, I would not be interested in re-entries until the low $6,000s to play off that previous support zone.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Another 4H Failure for Bulls We must remain critical of bulls as they have most time frame trends against them, and yet again they have failed to change the 4H trend on a bounce attempt. 2 rejections in a row from 12H EMA12 resistance that has been rejecting the price for weeks. We have to see a turn around this morning or we will expect to just continue to fade back into the mid $6,000s. I still have half of my position that filled and I will be giving the bulls a little more wiggle room because the position is small at this point but I will cut back to all cash today if this keeps up. RSI has cooled off on the daily and all time frames to potentially allow for another leg down into this weekend. Odds favor another daily inside bar today, as a very similar setup is playing out to what we had 3 days ago on the last 4H bounce attempt and failure to change the trend. Back to the drawing board for a game plan if I stop out! I would then be interested around the $6,000 level depending on what RSI levels were on different time frames if and when we got there.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC All about 4H EMA 12 Resistance TodayAfter constant rejections for over a week, we are bouncing and back to testing EMA resistance which has kept the price contained. There is a lot of fear in the crypto social media space, but I have to be honest I dont really feel much of it personally. This is due of course to being mostly cash and protective while we try and find a monthly higher low, but I am confident in that monthly higher low coming eventually. If you want to see me roll over and be a full on technical bear, give me a monthly higher low, bounce for 2 months to a lower high, then drop down and break that bounce support. For now I am playing the bounce and scaling in for daily oversold conditions. I have been cautious and picky with my orders, keeping them low and spacing them out with multiple % in between each order. Last night I was filled at $6,555 for one of those positions and because it was a good fill I will probably sit on it and see if bulls can change the hourly trend this morning with a higher low and higher high. As always, some alt coins will drop harder and bounce harder with bigger % gains than BTC so diversifying between a couple coins is not a bad idea. If I were bearish at this point I would be waiting for a daily lower high to re-enter positions. The last thing a bear wants to do is get greedy down here with daily RSI so close to hitting the teens.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC 12H RSI Lowest Since $3,000sThe BTC bears are getting all kinds of follow through after a clear multi week 12H downtrend. I had scaled into 2 positions yesterday which stopped out just below break even while I slept. From here I am comfortable enough with the oversold conditions that I am beginning to scale back in some BTC positions. First entry in the $7,000s with 2 more positions set under the current lows spaced by a couple hundred dollars in case things continue to get extreme. As soon as we cool off 4 hour RSI, I will drop those bids even lower. As always my goal will be able to scale out a bit of the position in profit to try and eventually have a break even stop. Bears will be waiting for 12H RSI to cool off and for another lower high on the time frame for their entry. Our monthly higher low has not been set, and this just prolongs the length of time we will stay in a monthly equilibrium in my opinion. Weekly trend change needed for the monthly higher low to be set, anywhere between here and $3,200. To remain protective, always remind yourself we can absolutely see another leg down.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC Hourly Bear Flag BattleWeak bounce attempt that did not even test EMA resistance on the 4 hour. It is currently a bear flag fading back to test the recent lows, and the only hope for the short term bulls is to hold support, break the high of the bounce, and get over 4H EMA resistance. From there we would just zoom out and look for a 12H lower high to form with its own EMA resistance which has been the case the last 3 bounce attempts. None of my deep bids filled so I have pulled the higher ones as RSI levels cool off and now I continue to patiently wait on the sidelines! Bears are patiently waiting for the next 12H lower high to try and scale in.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1