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BTC 12H Lower Highs as a Guide BTC bears keeping control as we see EMA12 rejections on the 12H chart and clear stair steps of lower highs on the way down. I am using the 12H time frame as the moves on the shorter term time frames are less clear in the past couple weeks of action in my opinion. ETH and LTC continue to hold on better, but they are not immune to the BTC pullback. Still watching the 12H falling wedge as long as lower lows do not see any meaningful follow through. Bears have no reason to cover positions as long as this trend remains, and while bulls are scouting entries and trying to pick their spots, many short term bulls have been stopped out due to lack of follow through on any bull moves. I personally will continue to wait patiently on the sidelines and set the criteria that I am not interested in a bullish position while EMA12 resistance on teh 12H chart remains.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
The divide is not over yet - a week-long review of digital moneyI gave a round-up of the market last week, and I think the market is in a relatively clear split, and at the moment it's still going to be a split. Portfolio chart: the upper left is the market value chart excluding Bitcoin, we see still maintain a volatile trend, indicating that the altcoin speculation is still ongoing, this is the main line of the original market; So their platform coins are also related to these actions, for the platform currency, I have always said that can not use conventional technical analysis to judge his trend, because they have a strong independence, unless the market volatility, they will maintain their own independent trend; We see below the trend line of November 7, there is no stop the decline of the pace, now see six hours of macd bottom divergence, but the rebound is weak, because the main hype is focused on altcoin, so Bitcoin remains volatile; Explain that this wave of market speculation hot spot is not in the mainstream currency. Summary: the market to maintain a volatile trend, Bitcoin continued to fall, this blunt knife cut the meat trend is the most difficult, so this stage, do more mistakes. Instead of looking for the point on the left, wait for the buy point on the right to form.
by peter-l
BTC, Chopping Up Both DirectionsIn the past 3 days we had a bull break where bear bots turned on and smashed the price to lower lows.... which resulted in a big bounce. Now we have a bear break leading to a big bull spike in a 10 minute time period... with a fade since then. This is a very difficult environment to trade on lower time frames which is why I am personally sitting cash and staying zoomed out to the daily chart to not get chopped up on these quick moves that appear to be stopping out both bulls and bears in the same moves. There is a take away here for me, the bears have not gotten much follow through on the multiple lower lows we have been seeing. This continues to have me watching for the weekly higher low to be set, but a daily trend change will be needed first. ETH and LTC have lost their daily up trends, and will be looking for weekly higher lows to now be set as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC 2H Equilibrium Set to Break Today BTC tightening range, which was anticipated after the volatility yesterday morning. How was this anticipated? We saw a big spike in volatility with a bull break, which kicked in the bear bots to turn into a bear break... and as soon as we saw the size of the bounce forming off the low, the range was wise enough to expect an equilibrium within the wide range. If we see a bull break after dropping to a daily lower low yesterday it will be notable that the bears have a lack of follow through. We are watching for a weekly higher low and this could potentially be our first clue. Remember the last video where BNB and NEO were highlighted for their nice clear tightening daily ranges, they have both clearly broken bullish with solid follow through. Now we have ETH and LTC in daily tightening ranges to be watching for the rest of this week. The ideal entries for bulls continue to be off supports using daily higher lows as our guide.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC Bots Running the ShowWe just had a bull break over the highs of the bounce, after a very sideways day yesterday, and it went straight into a bear attack of support. The last few days continue to show me there is a lack of any retail volume moving prices, and we see the bots and algos all just reacting to each other with some significant, but extremely fast moves. Even all the way back to the 40% move, it was extremely fast which shows us the space is just lacking clear trends with follow through right now. This is a catalyst for my patience to return/remain in the space. I have already been taking about 1 trade a week the last couple months and this is proving to be that is a good strategy to slowly tacking on some wins in current market conditions. I am staying zoomed out to the daily and watching the lower high pattern still intact as we see if bulls can change the daily trend for the weekly higher low. There are some alt coins seeing some upside, but it is far from being sector wide.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
Many Alts Resemble Bitcoin's Bottom From 2015 - Part 2Hey guys, here's a follow up on my original post from July, regarding the similarities between many altcoins and the bottoming period for Bitcoin in 2015. Sentiment-wise, things are still very similar. As time has gone by, alts actually decided to retest some of their bear market lows (like NANO, VET, and NEO), while others even made new lows (XRP and XLM). But since then, we've seen some pretty strong bounces. I outlined this possibility back in July with this post: Please feel free to skip to the chart comparison section if you don't want to read this lengthly post. Part I: Analysis Overview I talked about why I thought Bitcoin Dominance was about to top out this summer. You can see that by reviewing some of my posts, linked at bottom. A lot of it simply has to do with basic logic: Some people made a huge amount of profit on Bitcoin from the rise to $13.8K this year. . In particular, a lot of leveraged profit was likely made on the second top at $13K, after the first bounce from $10K. This was a manipulated second top (I actually saw it happening; fake buy walls were artificially pushing the price up). I suggested that even a small amount of this profit could be entering altcoin positions soon. Since then, we've seen alt/Bitcoin ratios rise on every Bitcoin drop, which implies that money is actually flowing into alts at these prices. Are buyers accumulating in preparation for a break of these bottoming ranges? Or are they trying to make as much Bitcoin as possible before the halving? I'm making an effort to figure it out. Many altcoins are now back above major yearly support levels. Some are already 100-200% up. Due to the emotional/speculative nature of this market, I don't expect the majority of the money to flow in until AFTER these alts actually break their highs from June and exit these ranges. People really need convincing. Unfortunately, retail traders hardly ever enter the majority of their positions close to bottom. We see that with volume. This is why volume doesn't usually peak until we're close to a top. I don't plan on selling my alts for Bitcoin or fiat until I see some truly enormous volume (10K+ BTC daily volume for an individual pair on Binance, for example). Anyway, I'm going to again display a few chart comparisons, showing what would happen if some of these promising altcoins tried to make it out of their current ranges, after "bottoming" for over a year. A mark-up from these ranges would likely be significant (for the alts that make it). For the weaker looking alts, particularly low-caps that have declined over 90% in BTC value since April––they may never make it out of their ranges, although they can experience pump & dumps here and there. For example, even if GVT moved up 10X from here, it would only be back to previous major support. In contrast, XLM only needs to go another 100% to be back to major broken support. And that's even with XLM being the worst performer in the top 10 this year. Part II: Chart Comparisons Explained In the rest of this analysis, I'm going to post a few charts comparing various alts to Bitcoin's bottom from 2015, and what could happen if they break their ranges. We don't know how high they can go, but I don't have much faith that the crypto market can see a new ATH in terms of valuation within the next couple of years. Instead, I think many alts that declined 90% or more can simply get back to 25-50% away from their ATH, as the overall market approaches the $500-700B range. I'll obviously revise my outlook as conditions change, but right now I'm projecting a large move up for the coins that are here to stay, followed by a drop and a couple years of consolidation as Bitcoin prepares to finally breach its all-time-high. During this period (if it happens), I hope to make some extra cash by trading around profits from the rise. If Bitcoin can break $20K on the next wave up, my outlook will change, but I don't really expect it to make it much past the June 2019 high. You can see why in my most recent "Market Cycle" video. I also must emphasize that this entire scenario can fail if the total crypto market cap breaks its long term trend at CURRENT levels, and particularly if it can't hold above $230 Billion. I've talked about the significance of that level in my videos as well. Full disclosure: The coins I'm including in this post are ones that I own. That's not to say other strong cryptocurrencies can't do the same, but this account is also a record of my personal investments/trades, and it'll be fun to look back on in the future, regardless of how it plays out. With the below comparisons, you can see they generally have a few things in common with Bitcoin from 2015: 1) Yearly horizontal support held. If broken, the coins have risen back above the support again (take XRP and XLM for instance). 2) 2nd breach of 200d MA during the same yearly bottoming period. Some alts are already doing this, like NEO and VET, while others are making attempts (like XLM). 3) 2nd or 3rd test of bottom. NANO has actually made a successful 3rd test, and looks the most similar to 2015 Bitcoin. I made a separate post about this recently. XRP has also done a 3rd test, but looks a bit more worrisome. What we clearly need to see is prices rise above their respective 200d MAs across the board, causing their 100d MAs to begin curving up. This would be the second time their 200d MAs has been breached during this bear market, which would be a bullish signal, based on what happened to Bitcoin in 2015. With some coins (like VET) this is already starting to happen. Part III: Chart Comparisons, With Important Levels Marked Listed below are comparisons and potential targets, with supports/resistances. First, here's VET: XLM: NEO: ONT: XRP: ETH looks a bit different, but perhaps that's because it's matured enough to follow Bitcoin more during this cycle: Remember, the bearish possibility always exists. I just wanted to update my targets and post another analysis about this, because it's continued to look like a very possible bullish scenario. I'm following several similarities between this bull market and the previous one, and I think we're arguably still in the EARLY stages, with this cycle taking at least twice as long to play out as the previous one. This means that if anyone is going to make money in this market, it will require much more patience. Because many people were over-invested, and because generally people have very little disposable income in the world (when compared with the wealthy), many crypto investors have likely sold because they can't afford the opportunity cost of holding through a long bear market. The people with money have all the time in the world, and they have no concern for the little fish. In fact, they're depending on the little fish to help support a bull run by incurring even MORE debt. It's messed up, but that's how the world works right now. Until things change, of course. This is actually why I don't really expect crypto to make a new all-time-high in terms of market valuation until a few years from now, at the earliest. I think the stock market may need to enter a recession first. This is not financial advice. I'm not a professional (yet), and this is entirely for speculation and entertainment purposes. Thanks for your support! -Victor Cobra
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
3
My Favorite Low Cap - Smartlands (SLT)A lot of people don't know this (there's a huge information gap in the crypto space), but XLM is also a platform, in addition to being one of the fastest cryptocurrencies out there. SLT is one of the coins on the Stellar network. It's a platform for STO's (security token offerings) - a use case that may end up being quite attractive for everyday investors. Tokenizing assets may provide a pretty powerful avenue for financial inclusion, since it allows people to tokenize real property, and things one might not have ever imagined being "shared." It's a somewhat utopian vision (and I'm harkening back to my post on crypto analysis as science fiction), but one can imagine an economy where everyone participates in the trust of a global network of shared value. Of course, the wealth disparity is a growing problem, but this is a small step closer to some financial accessibility. That's Stellar's vision, so it's not surprising that Smartlands decided to build on XLM. It's time for an update on SLT, since we've finally gotten a little more price history on this one. As some of you may have noticed, low cap altcoins have gotten the worst treatment since this past Spring. This is why a lot of "seasoned" crypto traders will hold mostly Bitcoin and Ethereum during bear markets and then diversify out as a floor becomes more obvious. We're seeing that happen right now. It may not be fairly obvious yet, but cryptocurrencies are starting to react positively towards news, and several are making serious attempts to break out. Just look at VET, NEO, ONT, TRX, and others on the China news. Look at XLM from yesterday's coin burn news. We're seeing a shift in market sentiment. Buyers are starting to get excited about scooping up altcoins. Of course, it's all speculative, but what drives the value of any given cryptocurrency over time is the fact that people will hold more than they spend. So far, demand has outpaced supply on larger timeframes for many cryptos, so one can assume that this will continue to occur, even if the process slows down a bit. But this is essentially why I've started posting some altcoin charts recently, even if they're highly speculative. I want to emphasize that SLT was actually one of the best performers during all of 2018, outpacing both BNB and LINK. It might have actually been the best performing coin in the entire market for a while. While the rest of the market declined 90%, SLT actually gained in value, rising from below $1 in February, 2018, to an all-time-high of $7 in the fall. It also went parabolic against XLM (its primary trading pair). I originally bought at 2 XLM, and as it went parabolic a year ago, I sold some of my position at much higher levels (18, 23, and 43 XLM). I'll admit - I got lucky. I didn't know anything about the project or its potential when I first bought some. It was one of those things where I was looking to put a tiny amount of money into a couple of small projects. Ultimately, SLT went from less than 3% of my portfolio to over 20% at one point. Now, it's back to 3% of my portfolio, even after tripling my original position and taking some profit. That's how poorly it's performed since April. Despite this decline, SLT has done extremely well in the past, and I don't think its fundamentals have changed since then. I'll explain why further down. As you can see, SLT is worth only a small fraction of its previous Bitcoin and XLM value. Just look at this chart! SLT declined 98% (NINETY-EIGHT PERCENT) in Bitcoin value since it was listed on Bittrex. To most crypto investors, this would be a really bad sign. Even as much of the market continues to recover, SLT is close to its original market price and has erased almost all of its gains. A while ago, I actually wished I could see low prices like this for Smartlands again. I think it represents one of the greatest risk/reward plays in the market. With a total supply of 7 Million coins, one needs only 7000 SLT ($3000 currently) to own 1/1000th of the total supply. That's the equivalent of owning 17,000 Bitcoin, or what would now be worth close to $160 Million. For whales, $3000 is nothing. If even one person with a decent amount of "play money" decided SLT was worth owning, they could buy a huge chunk of the supply. At the present time, this would be hard to do, since Smartlands has a liquidity problem with lots of regulative clarity needed. Over time, I expect this to change. Even owning 7 SLT is like owning 17 Bitcoin (in terms of supply percentage). Not that SLT will be worth Bitcoin's market cap, but I'm just using this to explain my reasoning of why I think it's a decent risk/reward play with even a small amount of money. Although the price outlook may seem bad, I actually continue to support the project. I removed a couple of coins from my portfolio much earlier this year (WTC and GVT) - projects in which I had lost confidence. In hindsight, I do wish I had sold more SLT at the time, since it would have shielded me from some more losses. However, there are three main reasons why I have not let go of SLT, and why I think it can surprise many people yet again: 1) The Smartlands community actually continues to grow. Every day, more members join their Telegram group. This is actually the sort of divergence I like to look at, when trying to decide if something is worth holding onto. Does price reflect actual growth of the community and company? If not, it may be severely undervalued in the market. Take a look at VeChain. It has one of the largest crypto communities out there. But it's not even in the top 20. With coins like GVT and WTC (still glad I let go of those positions), I noticed declining communities and sour investor sentiment. I have not seen these things with SLT, aside from some disappointment with regard to price (understandable). 2) The Smartlands team continues to work hard, venturing into a very difficult new frontier (the STO market). They've also worked to gain access to U.S. investors, which is something a lot of projects have completely shied away from. 3) As mentioned above, risk/reward Now to the technical analysis: We can see that SLT did break the steep downtrend, but not before declining even deeper in Bitcoin value. Right now, it seems to be forming a bit of a rounded bottom (orange), butting up right against another descending resistance. The RSI and ultimate oscillator look like they're trying to break out. If SLT can break the downtrend, perhaps with a little help from XLM, then I think it can explode upwards. I'm not saying that it will get back to ATH any time soon, but I've marked important levels in pink on this chart for reference The light blue zone is especially important. That's where the highest volume trades occurred over the last several months. Also in terms of volume, sellers have dominated over the last several months, but recently they've started to become exhausted. What would be great is if buying volume can start to outpace sell volume at these current levels. That could fuel a breakout. What's also interesting is that the 200 Day MA is just forming overhead (light blue). This is a good thing, because it will give traders more indicators to use moving forward, and it'll allow them to understand the trend in the long term. What we want to see is these moving averages continue to level out, as buyers become more confident that this is the floor. As buyers show up, we'd want those moving averages to start curving up. It's also important for XLM break out from its bear market downtrend once and for all. It's VERY close to doing this. It rose above the downtrend briefly yesterday. Speaking of XLM, I did make an effort to call the bottom below $0.06 not too long ago. Anyway, this is not financial advice. My perspective on the market has been fairly accurate over the last year, but that does not mean I haven't been wrong, or made some egregious calls. My posts represent my opinion only, and should be used for educational and entertainment purposes. I like to post these for future reference, to permanently record whether I was right or wrong. Hope you enjoyed this post, and thanks for your support! -Victor Cobra
SLong
by VictorCobra
How long will bitcoin trade sideways? Stimulated by the news of Chinese blockchain at the end of the month, BTC fell into a box trend with a wide range of shock after its violent rise, which lasted for 12 days. During this period, altcoin rose sharply with an impressive rise, so that in the past 48 hours, many investors who held BTC began to lose their loneliness and threw themselves into altcoin's "battle". However, we all know the story of "beating the drum to pass the flower". Generally speaking, the first one comes to eat meat and drink soup, and the second one pays the bill. So how long does BTC go sideways? I think it depends on two things: 1, the strength of the capital, apparently altcoin is carried this batch of funds, they cross the BTC to hype altcoin here, may even have to leave (from the perspective of the "conspiracy theory" those trapped in the project, hope that through the likely "policy for" get out, to find the money to do), such as altcoin after the ebb, BTC completes the support tasks; 2. Depending on the technical cycle, within a week, ma144 starts to move down, forming a cloud that may lead to the suppression of technology bears. Let's compare the four charts: The first chart is to eliminate the analysis of these two days I BTC after the market value of figure, a slightly obviously will boost, because without the BTC the "legs", in his arms and is lack of confidence, so rise in six hours in the chart, we see the macd technical deviation, the pressure is very obvious, if you can't resolve, "Waterloo" is probably altcoin. The second chart is BTC, which has a horizontal trend for 12 days and no direction. Therefore, at this stage, if you participate in the speculation of BTC, the profit is not ideal, but if you "get off" now to catch up with altcoin, it may not be a good choice. The third chart is ont, a typical altcoin, which was basically abandoned by the market before. In November, China's positive stimulus brought an explosive trend. Compared with the previous position, it directly doubled, which is the main speculation target of this wave of market. The fourth chart is XRP. XRP is an alien. Whether it is the doubt of his blockchain identity or his speculation background, it seems to be out of place in this market. From a technical point of view, he broke through the long term pressure line of the daily cycle of ma144, which is considered strong, but from a larger cycle, he is only back to the position of December 2018, and nothing to go up. There are plenty of other proxies in the market, such as the airbnb and ht, as well as other mid-market altcoin, which cannot be shown because of space constraints. I would like to show you a point of view through a set of charts above: that is, the speculation here is not a bull market, because the bull market should be an overall market, and at present only some people with the so-called good, speculation part of altcoin. And once the tide goes out, what's left on the beach is basically a matter of fate. Of course, the development of things is gradual, it is from nothing to something, from something to prosperity, from prosperity to decline. Altcoin hype is also a process, so I said they have no foundation, no sense, but it doesn't mean they will crash immediately, this is the natural law of the development of things. But the final result, decline is inevitable, because their hype does not have a solid foundation, many are just "air".
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by peter-l
BTC 4 Hour Uptrend Watch BTC Bulls breaking from the 4H equilibrium bullish last night though not significant follow through at this point. As long as we keep the 4H uptrend the bulls keep control and set sights to the recent high 9,600. What is most notable during the last few days are the daily trend changes for ETHBTC and LTCBTC as those coins and other alts continue to gain ground vs. Bitcoin. Due to this, we see ETHUSD and LTCUSD in a clear 4 hour uptrend and in a better position on the daily chart. In ETHBTC weekly trend can change bullish for the first time since the wild 2017 run you better believe it will catch out attention. Currently just riding the position I have been in for the last couple weeks with a stop set and not a concern in the trading world. Keeping things simple and waiting for high probability setups. I have not taken a lot of trades in the last month, but I have not lost $1 on a crypto trade in a long time either. Staying picky and picking my spots.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
Altcoin three-line deviation, pay attention to risk control This morning, I discussed altcoin's hype logic. At least, I still haven't seen a reasonable hype basis. As for the news that some media pondered, I think it is too far-fetched. Although I also worked in the media, but for China's block chain information released to the media, I think to be cautious, because the media is not "the central committee of the communist party of China network security and information commission office" for the record, so they are actually not a regular distribution channels, especially for the policies, laws and regulations, project information, industry dynamics, in theory, they report if there is any distortion, caused the loss of you, can't be compensated. So in this regard, I think you should pay attention to the official website of the publishing company, or the official twitter. For news, you can see bloomberg. For the current situation, I feel that the news surface is more chaotic, the more chaotic, the more that the market is in the eve of change. So in the next 24 hours, please watch your wallet, for the trend of the market, must maintain enough caution. From the perspective of bitmex's position in the bitcoin perpetuity contract, another high position of $820 million is reached. It should be noted that many fake COINS and mainstream COINS have stagflation, and the large-scale time-of-delivery deviation is also a technical pressure, so any movement will lead to the divergence of bulls. So this is not the best time to trade. The right thing to do is to take the right signal and follow it up, not ambush it on the left.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by peter-l
Whether altcoin's explosive logic holds water As of 8:30 am on November 6, the total market value of digital currency is $2428.1 billion, excluding bitcoin, which is $74.8 billion. This wave of market, we have seen an obvious phenomenon, is speculation altcoin. As bitcoin's share has declined, many previously committed bitcoin holders have begun to wonder if there is something wrong with them. Start selling bitcoins and buying altcoin. Is this a repeat of April 2018? We cannot see this logic at any level. The backdrop to 2018 is the great leap forward in ico, when the market value of new supply surged. At present, there is no basic support, what is the logic of hype altcoin? Is it based on China's loose policy on blockchain? It is far-fetched to say that blockchain is cryptocurrency, and the Chinese government has always supported blockchain without currency, so the purpose and basis of this hype are not clear. I suggest that we should pay attention to risk control. If the market in the first half of this year is those trapped whales, institutions of the solution set market, then this wave may be the project and "pyramid selling", "banker" the best opportunity to run. Strategy: this is not a buying opportunity, please wait for the trend to clear, bitcoin is more valuable than most altcoin in the long run
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by peter-l
1
BTC Grinding 12H EMA 12After a lack of follow through setting our daily higher low, we have seen both bulls and bears unable to gain a clear edge in the short term this past weekend. There are likely now a lot of bull stops under $9,000 and a lot of break stops over $9,433. We are waiting for a volume and volatility spike in the short term, which was missing for the bulls over the weekend. We are seeing the sideways action on larger cap alt coins as well, who normally we would look to gain some independent movement when BTC trades this sideways. Remain patient, have a game plan, and ensure volume and follow through, whatever direction!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC Continues to Tighten Not much to update on the BTC front from yesterday, another potential 4 hour equilibrium as the bulls still look for the daily higher low to be found. Currently setting up as the possibility of a daily inside bar forming. If we get a bear break, the bulls will have to buy the dip quickly to not lose daily EMA12 support. With a bull break we will set targets for a daily lower high in the upper $9,000s. If making entries down here as a bull I would personally look to have a % or two of space below support before having a stop set as it would not be surprising to see 1 more push down before that daily higher low is found. Remaining patient and expecting a volume and volatility spike within the next 24 hours.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Clear 4H Downtrend After a V-shaped recovery bounce yesterday, we saw no follow through from bulls and just slowly faded back to the low of consolidation. Congrats to those not acting on FOMO, as even the top of the bounce was just a 4H lower high vs. $9,575. We are still waiting for a daily higher low to be set, and we will not be confident in it until we see a 4H trend change back to the bulls. Keep an eye on the BTC.D dominance chart, as we may see daily higher lows form on both at the same time. Bulls are remaining patient and eyeing the daily EMA supports that are catching up. Breaks have stops in place and are using the 4H lower highs as a guide.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC Patience for the Equilibrium Nice to see the most likely anticipated price action after the breakout taking place, as we patiently wait for the break which may take another day to come. I do not use the 6H chart often, but when a pattern is more long and drawn out than anticipated, I prefer the condensed version for clarity. We will be looking for a lower high to be set today, and bulls are hoping for 1 more push up over $9,600 to create more distance above the recent support $9,180. Bulls have now had 2 chances for a position (each higher low) and now the bears will have a chance for an entry and a top fish of $10,000 which is just above our recent lower high. Not only is pattern recognition good for establishing trade game plans, but it is great to help us from over trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC 4 Hour Equilibrium BTC 4 hour equilibrium as anticipated since our top was set at $10,540. We will be looking for a break later today. With a bull break we will be headed back to recent high and with a bear break we will be looking at daily consolidation needing to find a higher low. Currently the bulls are trying to hold EMA12 support for the 4H higher low, but we have not seen enough bounce just yet to say it has been set. Currently still in a position and will ride it out until the daily uptrend is lost. This means sitting through finding a daily higher low if need be. Overall the bulls are pleased with how their gains have held up. Now the question is: Can continued pressure be put on all the new shorts from the last couple days? Stay Tuned!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC 4 Hour Equilibrium Bull Break Bounce finally getting some follow through, but straight into 4H EMA 12 resistance. If we see this 4H trend change get no follow through, we will be looking for a bear flag on the daily. If we get over EMA resistance, we zoom out and look for a daily lower high and watch daily EMA resistance. Currently still riding my 1 fill from $7,311 and will look to sell a daily lower high. Reminder previous support $7,700 can now act as resistance as well. Other coins like XRP, BNB have seen much better oversold bounces than BTC, and others like LINK are still holding daily up trends. We would have to see the BTC.D dominance chart break the falling wedge bullish for attention to be back on BTC vs. alts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
Why is BTC so Slow? BTC continues to be in control of the bears with a daily lower high now set and a move back towards our recent daily lows. The weekly bear flag still remains the most likely scenario. Volatility and volume are dropping off in the space as traders go elsewhere for opportunity. BTC has a 7% Range the Last 8 Days. Just yesterday NFLX the stock had half of this range in 1 day, on $3.7B volume. Bitcoin and crypto attracts traders like me when there is big volatility to capture moves. Otherwise, there is no reason for me to be trading crypto and paying fees to do so, when the stock market is offering more volatility on more dollar volume, with 0 fees for trading. That is the current reality of the situation and I think the crypto space needs to prepare for this to be the case for a while. For example, if we form a monthly higher low as expected, either here or at $6k or where ever, we will then be looking for a monthly lower high and tightening range which could take us into Q1-Q2 of 2020. Alt coins still have some nice opportunity with more volatility, but what is lacking for me there is volume. Market ordering 6 figures for $0 fees on stocks is a big difference than the slippage you would see on most alt coins, and the 4 figure fees you would pay with that market order. This is a great time for education while we wait for opportunity. Taking courses, reading books, studying and practicing different trading methods, learning about trading other markets, etc!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC 4 Hour Range to Watch Little to update from yesterday! Over the next day or two this is the range to have eyes on for BTC. As long as we are within it, sideways action and lack of correlation to alt coins will be occurring. Still lots to prove on the daily chart for bulls, and ranges like this only extend how long we can see the daily sideways range continue. Crypto trades should continue to focus on alt coins while this is the case in my opinion. There is more volatility, clear setups, and opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Bulls 4H Bull Flag Hopes After a sleepy week of trading the bulls showed up yesterday to defend support and keep a fighting chance to try and negate the weekly bear flag. At this point the consolidation from this short term move is very healthy. That being said the bulls still have lots of proving to do. I still consider anything under $8,469 as a daily lower high, keeping the bears in control of the longer term time frame. I will remain skeptical of bulls until they negate a weekly bear flag by getting over the top of resistance in the $8,800s. Alt coins like XRP, BNB, ZRX continue to tighten on the daily trading sideways. Bears are close to taking out the daily up trends on these names and starting weekly consolidation. Lots of traders are waiting for BTC clarity, but those names have more clarity to me for potential setups and entries. I personally would be looking for triggers for bearish entries on the names that have not started weekly consolidation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
6
BTC 12H Bear Flag Confirmed. After cooling off shorter term (4H) RSI levels, we have seen another leg down on BTC as we approach key $7,700 support, and get closer to confirming the weekly bear flag. Even the alt coins who have been holding up much better are starting to see some signs of the bulls losing their grip. From here I will continue to patiently wait, as I have been for over a week, for a more favorable setup. The bears are very comfortable with most trends in their favor. I personally will only begin to get interested in a BTC bounce when the daily and 4 hour RSI are BOTH in at least the mid 20s at the same time. We will still be looking for the monthly higher low to form, so I will remain interested in bounces.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1