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BTC Bounce Attempt UnderwayOvernight the BTC bulls held the low of the dump and broke the high of the 4 hour resistance. We have not seen much follow through yet as we are testing 4 hour EMA resistances. If we get over those levels we will use the daily to be watching for a lower high to form. The bullish play in this range is either bottom fishing $9,000 or waiting for a daily trend change. Remember if the 4 hour trend change does not get follow through, it is a potential daily bear flag. The bears have had a lot of momentum but I personally am going to continue to give the bulls a chance to prove themselves defending this support. Essentially that just means preventing myself from falling into the "We are going to break $9k" mindset to ensure I am not biased enough to miss an opportunity if the bulls do hold on.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC Headed for Support TestsAfter a break of short term resistance with no follow through, we are heading back down to test recent daily supports. If these levels hold we will remain in a tightening range for the week. This could be a bullish scenario for some alt coins as sideways bitcoin allows for altcoins to trade on their own without significant correlations. If support breaks we will be looking down to $9k and daily oversold RSI conditions. Monthly consolidation looking for a higher low could be the end result if bears get follow through. Watching volume as we will need significant bear volume to break the 5 support we have from previous price action above $9k. Still not actively trading this range and waiting for short term clarity. After the weak breakout attempt I would rather be a bear than a bull if forced to have a position in this current range.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
5
BTC Daily Bull Break Currently Lacking Follow ThroughThe break in the tightening daily range happened when it was expected as far as timing goes, and favored the bulls in a quick, high volume move. One thing missing... follow through. Look at the move on the 5 min chart. The vast majority of the price action and volume was on one 5 minute candle. We went from $10,116 to 10,680 in 25 minutes, and never saw a higher low and higher high from that point. 5 and 15 min RSI were very high when the bull break occurred, which played a major role in me personally passing up on this trade. From there it was just a slow fade with no 5 minute higher low and higher high. I say this often but in order to keep pressure on shorts we MUST see continuation moves... 5, 15, 60 minutes higher lows in healthy bull flags of consolidation and then continuation to higher highs. If you see price action that allows any bear that entered above $10,500 to be comfortable with no 5 minute action forcing him to cover, shorts stay in the trade adding to downside pressure. The bulls still have a chance for follow through but if we do not break $10,953, our 2nd daily lower high of resistance, by Wednesday, we will consider this a failed bull break. I will remain without a shorter term position until I see some confidence from the bulls that weekly EMA12 will hold for weeks more.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
Examining Sell Pressure On Altcoins Despite my long term bullishness on several cryptocurrencies, I'm going to write a post here about the continued sell pressure on altcoins. As such, this will be a lot more bearish than my long term view. This is meant to be as objective as possible, without being too hopeful about what the future could bring. Here we go. A lot of people are still asking the question, "When will alts start rising again?" and if they're not, they've already become Bitcoin maximalists or given up on watching the price entirely. The crypto space as a whole feels rather dead. It's noticeable chart-wise, indicator wise, and sentiment wise. Only the die-hards remain bullish on most crypto projects, aside from Bitcoin. As I've said recently, there is a point where I think altcoin growth needs to happen in order for even Bitcoin to remain bullish. That's because of the psychodynamic nature of market cycles. An increase in altcoin prices gives people confidence in continued growth for the crypto space. If the only coin that's growing is Bitcoin, people will become skeptical of future advancements in the technology itself. There needs to be some positive feedback (a reward for hard work) in order for people to want to continue making progress in the space. If positive achievements aren't rewarded, then I think it will cause a lingering resentment that will be very difficult to shake off. This resentment could then bleed over to Bitcoin itself. There are several factors I've been looking at over the last several months. If you recall, I made a video entirely about BNB and why its growth and subsequent decline in the midst of other projects failing was NOT a good thing for the altcoin market. Since BNB broke the long term uptrend against Bitcoin, other projects have done nothing but drop on their ratios. This proves that my worst fear about the market has actually been correct (for the time being): A loss of confidence in BNB (one of the only top performing coins so far this year) would lead to a loss of confidence in the ENTIRE space. As soon as BNB topped out on the ratio, everything else plunged into oblivion. In this case, the Binance exchange's hold on the market has been quite staggering (and disturbing). For a while, only the IEO projects were pumping in price, as fickle investors jumped ship from established, improving projects, to newer "better" ones with no negative price history (yet). The amount of money actually being exchanged within the altcoin market has declined astronomically since then. By all accounts, the market really appears to be dying out. In a sense, it's good that a lot of altcoin trading volume has died down on Binance. It leaves the playing field open for other exchanges to step up, and for the U.S. to speed up with regulatory clarity. These are the times when the savvy and risk-tolerant investor will go on the hunt. "Dumpster diving" some may call it. Now, to finally get to the charts I have on this analysis. Above, you can see the XLM/BTC and the ONG/BTC chart. These are two of the worst performing coins of the last several months. Neither of these is guaranteed to increase in price in the future. What I'm just showing here is that there is constant, relentless selling pressure. On the XLM chart, you can see that the RSI has always reached the current resistance level as it neared the wedge resistance. If it can't break out here, it can fall all the way to 400 sats. You can see that marked as the top of the red bottom zone on this chart. For ONG, it is no surprise that the market is continuously dumping it. The ONG generation far outstripped the divided payout for most proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies. It was only a matter of time before people caught on and took advantage of the high rate of ONG generation. But even NEOGAS is on the decline. I believe the lack of demand in these specific tokens says something about the market as a whole: People have wisened up and are now taking advantage of ANY extra money they can squeeze out. This is NOT a good thing. This is what causes relentless sell pressure. With all that in mind, I think it's important to pay attention to these two coins that have an endless supply of sellers and little to no demand. if we see a change in trend for these two coins, I think it would strongly indicate that the altcoin market will reverse. No one knows if and when it will happen. All one can do is look for potential signals. ideally, I'd like XLM to break out here, but it has failed every single time. There's no reason to bet that it will succeed this time. If XLM did break out here, it would be extremely bullish, because it would mean that a macro higher-low is in. You can see that on the support levels marked on this chart. If you gaze at the XLM/USD chart as well, you can see that it has still respected the downtrend, but has found support just below the previously held 7 cents zone. A drop in Bitcoin would likely send it much lower, towards the 4-5 cents area. As you can also see, XLM remained stagnant for much of the previous bull market as well. What we really need to see (if cryptocurrencies like XLM are to remain on a long term uptrend) is a bounce back above 7 cents and a break of the downtrend. If we have seen the lows, perhaps we can even begin to form a bit of a channel (purple). Let's also compare the price action of XLM/USD with that of Bitcoin in 2015. If XLM behaved similarly, we could see a spike all the way up towards the $0.27 area by this November. That's barring any negative news for Stellar. In any case, it's time to wait and see. This is a dormant stage for the market. Fear is at extreme levels, and the global economy looks on the brink of a large move (either a final blowoff mania phase or a breakdown, beginning a recession). Exciting times, to be sure! This is not financial advice. Just wanted to write about how I'm viewing things at the moment, without being to exuberant or irrationally hopeful. Skepticism is important in investing. -Victor Cobra
by VictorCobra
9
BTC Break Likely Sunday or Monday BTC Daily chart continues to tighten so not much to update at this point. Bulls changed the 4 hour trend but saw no follow through, which normally means zoom out and look for a daily bear flag. The odds have a slight favor for bears where we currently stand, so a bit more follow through over $10,255 would be needed to even out the probabilities. If we see a break of $10,051, the odds increase for the bears to test lower $9,000s. Whatever direction we break, we will have to see follow through of multiple levels and high volume on the daily chart. ETHBTC broke bull on the daily, so if the BTCUSD chart breaks bull it may be worth watching ETHUSD. Note it could just be another weekly bear flag like last time at this point.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
5
BTC Bulls Battle for Daily Higher Low The fear index is crushed as the bulls battle to hold the daily equilibrium and try and form a higher low heading into the weekend. If bulls fail we will likely head to daily oversold conditions and a $9,000 test. If they are able to hold we will likely see a break of the range Saturday or Sunday. Still all cash and patiently waiting for the tightening range to break before considering doing anything. Keep an eye on ETHBTC, it is forming a very nice daily equilibrium. Best case for bulls would be for both BTCUSD and ETHBTC to break bullish this weekend. Remember if we see ETHBTC break bull but BTCUSD break support, that just means ETHUSD is not going down as fast as BTCUSD. This is the time to have a game plan for a break in either direction, and write it down physically in front of you to keep yourself accountable. What will do you on a bear break? Where will you look to enter? What is your target? Same for a bull break.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC Daily Lower High SetLoss of the 4 hour uptrend was the first indication, followed by a 4H lower high and lower low... into a solid dump. These were the indications the daily lower high had been set, and it sure feels like the bears have had an easier time than the bulls as we work through this tightening daily range. I would expect a higher low compared to $9,470 at least initially, but I am back to all cash and not making any more trades while we are within this range (discipline!). If we see a bear break I will not be interested until daily oversold conditions at a minimum. I expect we could stay within the tightening range at least until the weekend, so time to be patient!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC higher Low Every Day Pattern Consolidation on BTC and a loss of the 4 hour support. If we break the pattern of a higher low every day, our daily lower high in the tightening range will be set. The break in this pattern will likely be what leads me to take the rest of my BTC position off and patiently wait all cash for a break of the tightening range. Still keeping an eye on the tightening ranges on the ETHBTC and LTCBTC daily charts, but burden of proof is on the bulls who have not shown us much. Very interesting that right now SPY, XAUUSD, BTC , Oil are all in different stages of tightening patterns on different time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Daily Equilibrium Watch After the first 3 days of the bounce started shaping up as a potential bear flag, the bulls are breathing a sign of relief for the bounce follow through that is making the daily equilibrium more likely. Bulls are looking for one more push to the low $11,000s to get to the midway point within the range. Watching the 4 hour uptrend to see how long the bulls can keep control. The weekly chart has bounced off EMA12 for a 4th time recently and the burden of proof longer term is on the bears to lose that support in order to see monthly consolidation. Currently still in a 12% position from the scaling in bounce. I have yet to decide if I will look to exit on the daily lower high, or try and hold through the equilibrium for the potential of a bull break. Being a smaller position gives me the flexibility with decisions like that.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Hourly EMA Resistance Guide BTC is in a dump on the 4 hour time frame as we look for a daily higher low to form after the 12 day bull run to start the month. There was a notable inverse correlation between BTCUSD and ETHBTC last night, as ETH and LTC are getting some relief by not dropping as much as bitcoin. We will continue watching the BTC pairing charts of these names for clear daily trend changes if we are to see a notable shift with follow through. At this point they are notable oversold bounces. As stated in videos, I patiently waited for 4 hour oversold RSI before starting to scale in, and currently have had 3 orders fill. I am noticing the biggest mistake people make with oversold bounce plays is a lack of patience when scaling in. Remember these guidelines: - Always remind yourself "We can see another leg down" - When short term bounces happen above my bids, and I already have a position I am comfortable with, I move my bids down to reflect the change in short term RSI. -Space your orders! I leave a minimum of $100 in between bids and often will put $200 in between. - We never want to be all in unless EXTREMELY confident in the setup... like blue sky breakout confident. When we are all in on the trade we instantly give up control completely to the asset instead of being in control. Here is an example of what that means. My orders that filled were $10,789, 10,589, 10,489 (not exact numbers but very close) these filled last night before bed. All of these orders was about half of my capital. I then saw a 5 min inverse head and shoulders and said to myself "I will exit a third of my position break even" which I did low $10,600s. From there I am back to about 35% capital in trades and lots of cash. I put bids 10,200s, 10,000s, 9,900s and go to bed. This morning that puts me in a situation where I am down 1% on my positions, 4 hour RSI is low 20, and I have 65% cash to work with. For me this is comfortable. We will not be confident our daily higher low is set until we change the 4 hour trend. From there we will look for a lower high and a tightening daily range through August.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
9
BTC Low of Consolidation TestBTC currently in a clear 4 hour downtrend, and I am continuing to either wait for 4 hour oversold conditions, or a change in trend on this time frame before I make an entry. Daily consolidation still underway with the pattern of a lower high every day. Daily EMA12 support being tested again this morning. It would require a break down to the upper $10,000s to see 4 hour RSI hit oversold today. Daily consolidation remains healthy, it would require a bear volume spike and notable drop under daily EMA support to change that.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
BTC Scouting Daily Higher Low BTC consolidation all weekend with no red flags for bulls at this point. Watching daily EMA 12 support which continues to hold. Using both it, and EMA 26 as a guide for this consolidation, bulls happy as long as we keep closing over these levels. We are watching the daily pattern of a lower high every day the last 7 days. This pattern breaking will be an indication the higher low has been set. Short term bounces in LTC and ETH pairings of BTC. Watching the next couple days to see if they are just bear flags, which is still possible at this point. Personally all cash and in no rush to establish a position until the daily lower highs break or we see 4H oversold conditions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC 4 Hour Equilibrium Perfection To those that do not know technical analysis, this chart may look cluttered and confusing. Every line is a bounce or rejection in a smaller and smaller range. There is a break imminent, likely tomorrow (Saturday). We will look for a volume break associated with the break, and we will have to see all levels in that direction break in order to believe we will get follow through. Looking for a bounce above support this morning to remain in the tightening range. BTC dominance continues to climb as alts continue to get crushed. Follow the money and stick with the leader until there is a clear shift in daily trends on BTC pairings. If we get a bull break, we look to 2019 highs. If we get a bear break we look for a daily higher low to form and watch daily EMA 12/26 support.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC Daily Inside BarThe 4 hour line in the sand support broke yesterday, leading to a dump and 15 min RSI in the teens as hourly RSI hit right above 30. First hourly oversold bounce from a 7 day bull run got a lot of bounce follow through as is usually the case. Now we have a daily inside bar and I am watching the "Higher low every day" pattern. A break of $11,187 today would lose that pattern and have us looking for the daily higher low. If the inside bar today holds, it will require a break of today's low to see clear daily consolidation. I played the oversold bounce for a quick flip, and still patiently waiting all cash for a more clear setup. Bears are watching for a 4H lower high to try and top fish $12,320 resistance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1