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Victor Cobra's Crypto Market - A Critical Moment (Part 1)In these videos, I express a little bit of my opinion on the market, as well as some shorter term technical observations. I continue to make some comparisons to the 2018 bear market, even given the recent bullish price action. I also discuss my personal financial plan, and why I've taken steps to secure profit. This is really meant as my own trading/investing journal, and is not meant as financial advice. Please treat this as speculative material only. -Victor Cobra
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
2
To Be A Dead Cat...Or To Be A Blow-off Top?I find these periods the most interesting to write about the market - peak uncertainty. This is a speculative analysis to show why this moment might be a very good risk-reduction opportunity. As shown on the above chart, when Bitcoin dominance (lower panel) touches the 50 week MA (red), it can indicate a decisive move for Bitcoin to come. If Dominance rejects here and heads lower, it can lead to a blow-off top for the market, as shown on the left side of the chart (2017 bubble). On the other hand, if Dominance continues up from here, it's very possible we see something like what happened in July-August 2018. I wrote another post about this recently. This is essentially a follow-up with a little more added to the analysis. Bitcoin has headed up nicely towards the $46-50k liquidity zone, though it still lingers just below $45k at the time of this post. Strong support has so far been found near the 100 week MA (yellow). One thing I've been watching is DXY. If the dollar continues to rise, there is a chance the positive correlation with Bitcoin dominance returns. As shown below, Bitcoin Dominance has tracked DXY pretty closely. It could be about to follow. Why have they been correlated in the past? I think DXY tends to trend down in risk-on environments. Alts are seen as even riskier than Bitcoin, so they tend to increase in risk-on environments as DXY goes up, and they tend to decrease in risk-off environments as investors accumulate cash and sell risky positions. Despite recent recoveries in markets, I still believe we are in a risk-off environment, with major players accumulating cash positions. If Bitcoin blasts higher, I do not think it's likely to sustain for very long, and I think we can finally see that blow-off top so many were waiting for last year. It would come when everyone least expects it. Based on what I'm seeing on TradingView, there are plenty of arguments to be made for both the bearish and bullish case. Usually Bitcoin will do what no one expects. Does that mean we get a triple top near $60k? Does it mean we enter a deep bear market with Bitcoin declining ultimately below $20k? Or does it mean Bitcoin heads straight to 6 figures next month? Regardless, I don't think Bitcoin will sustain any new highs unless Dominance breaks above that 50 week MA. I would see Bitcoin breaking out and pulling market share from alts as bullish. I'm skeptical of anything else. A few other notes: 1. Many people attribute the recent rise in Bitcoin price to Terra (LUNA)'s purchase of over $1 Billion worth of Bitcoin to back their stablecoin UST. Bitcoin-baked money might end up being the future, but I'm skeptical when the CEO of the company also announced a $2M Twitter bet in the midst of LUNA's all-time high price run. That $2M is peanuts compared with what he made on LUNA's price appreciation, and could have easily been a hype-move to generate liquidity for big LUNA whales to unload. Buying Bitcoin is also an easy way to hold the market up while sellers exit. LUNA increased in value by 1000x during the bull run - one of the few coins to do so. I think it's likely that it has topped out. Since the Twitter bet and Bitcoin purchase have been announced, it has remained in a small downtrend. 2. Bullish articles about crypto are beginning to surface again, claiming these conditions are what Bitcoin was meant for. We will need to see if the masses agree, or whether the crunch of inflation and debt becomes too heavy a burden. Welcome to the future. 3. Open interest continues to climb. It now sits around $42 Billion, a level not seen since the very beginning of 2022, when price was higher. Often when growth in open interest outpaces Bitcoin price, it leads to a large squeeze, where traders get shaken out of position. We do not know whether this will happen to the upside or downside. Every time since 2021, the squeeze has caused a sharp price decline. Data viewable here: www.coinglass.com This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
21
NANO (XNO) Starting Afresh - Lean and Green It's been a while since I posted an update on NANO. You can see the links below for previous posts on NANO, where you can see the historical price chart (not currently viewable). NANO is still one of my favorite cryptocurrencies, despite remaining in a clear downtrend and breaking the established uptrend from the previous bull market. Oddly enough, I'm actually becoming even more supportive of the project, as I lose faith in the majority of crypto achieving its original purpose. NANO is simple - no frills. It's lean and green. It does what it needs to do, at zero cost. Does it serve well as an investment? Not necessarily. As many NANO critics have pointed out over the years, there doesn't seem to really be an incentive to hold it. One cannot ignore that its limited supply with relatively poor price performance exhibits very little overall interest. Clearly, it can stagnate for a long time. Will it ever rise again in value? Interestingly, NANO's best performance last year occurred precisely around the time Bitcoin began dropping over the summer, due to the China ban and criticisms of Bitcoin's energy usage. NANO rose from its March 2020 low of $0.25 to near $17 (almost a 200x increase). This shows that at least some traders find NANO attractive at times when Bitcoin seems less attractive. What's even more interesting is that large upside moves from NANO often precede or coincide with large drops in Bitcoin price. Recently, NANO moved up nearly 50% in a single day, which was a rare occurrence in which Bitcoin did not drop immediately afterwards. Unfortunately due to the ticker change, I can't access some of those older NANO/BTC charts to show what I'm talking about. Arguably, a currency with a limited supply of 133 million coins necessitates DISCOURAGEMENT of hoarding, and rather ENCOURAGEMENT of spending. This is why fiat currency loses value over time - there needs to be some incentive to spend it. This is also why Bitcoin and Ethereum can't be used for everyday transactions. NANO is quite lightweight, though its tokenomics do not encourage drastic price appreciation. Despite this, the coin managed to get close to the Top 10 by market cap at the end of 2017, simply because it did what Bitcoin was meant to do originally, but better. However, these days the market cares more about scarcity and scarcity economics, than it does about utility. This is due to the entrance of big money, I'll bet on it. Big money wants something that can remain "profitable." The meme stock craze flipped this on its head, and caused a surge in value for companies that are not seen as necessarily profitable. It also caused a surge in value for meme coins like DOGE, which have far worse tokenomics than NANO. Let's not forget that a market-wide rebellion against Bitcoin and its high fees in 2017 led to the meteoric rise of RaiBlocks (XRB - Nano's former name) and other cheaper coins like XLM and XRP. Back then, people were still excited about crypto's utility, and its promise to unite the world in an unbanked utopia. These days, that vision seems quite clouded. Since taking profit from the 2021 market run, I will focus more on cryptocurrencies that align with my values in the future. NANO is one of them. And perhaps Banano too, for the memes. On the above charts, you can see that the ticker has changed. Formerly NANO, XNO is able to start "afresh" from a charting perspective. Now, it has the chance to shine as an option for cryptocurrency users, but it MUST have more liquidity and become more accessible to those who need it. WeNano is an incredible app, but interest seems to have waned. Unfortunately if Coinbase added NANO, it would make some other cryptocurrencies obsolete, in terms of everyday utility (such as XRP and XLM). XRP and XLM are also quite fast, but they require memos. The memo itself makes the transaction process slower. Big players probably do not want to spend the time marketing something like NANO that does not have an economic system tied to it, like Bitcoin or Ethereum. So, it remains in a difficult position. It'll be interesting to see if this recent upside move for NANO will end up predicting a major drop for Bitcoin, as it does consistently. It will also be interesting to see if NANO can survive, once all is said and done. A lot depends on the community here. If NANO gets back to $1.10 or below, I'll probably buy some more. Supports and resistances are outlined on the above chart. There's no telling where it'll go long term. As I mentioned above, it can easily die out and hit some of those previous bear market lows. Or, it can pleasantly surprise and reach all-time high. I'd see this as a rebellion against the established market trend, as I wrote about above. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice. -Victor Cobra
BINANCE:XNOUSDLong
by VictorCobra
2
Will Litecoin Prove A Bear Market Rally? (LTC)This is a fairly simple post. Above, you can see that every time Litecoin has broken below the middle orange trendline, it has continued towards the lower trendline. If this continues to be the case, it is like the bottom is not in for the cryptocurrency market. The weekly oscillator (red at bottom) looks incredibly weak. Perhaps on a positive note, LTC might close this week above the 9 EMA (orange). This is a departure from most weak price action seen in 2018. Circled in yellow are periods that look similar, where price continued to the downside. Litecoin will need to make a new local high to head towards the main downtrend. Breaking and holding that middle trendline would also be a bullish sign. For now, this looks like a bear market rally. One of the biggest catalysts for legacy proof of work coins like Bitcoin and Litecoin is the halving. Litecoin's halving occurs before Bitcoin, in the summer of 2023. In 2019, Litecoin's upcoming halving led to a large price increase for LTC from the $22 bear market bottom to around $140 - nearly a 7x increase. During that time, I managed to scoop some up at $32 and sell above $130 for fiat and ETH. Since 2019, LTC has not seen such high levels against Bitcoin and Ethereum again. Against Bitcoin, Litecoin is again butting up against an established downtrend. The blue shows the halving, while the yellow shows where I speculated a new LTC/BTC bullish cycle could begin. It did move up a little bit last summer, but not nearly as much I was hoping. I thought I could profit off another Litecoin cycle, but it continues to underperform. I speculated on a new ATH for Litecoin multiple times this past cycle, but this failed to play out. This goes to show that none of us really know anything at all. But, it's fun to write and speculate about the market, using the information available to us. Despite underperformance, LTC is part of my remaining crypto portfolio. Another observation: LTC is just barely hanging on to the long term uptrend on Bitfinex. A break below that trendline could signal the end of the long term uptrend for Litecoin. As one of the most liquid cryptocurrencies out there with a strong value proposition, what does this mean for Bitcoin? Sometimes Litecoin's price action can offer clues to what's going on with the rest of the market. Let's see what unfolds. We're at a uniquely strange moment in global markets. Things continue to remain quite surreal. Be careful out there! There are things more important than markets. I'm really just telling myself that. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice. Clearly, because I've been wrong on this one multiple times. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
9
👨🏼‍💻WHERE IS BITCOIN GOING?👨🏼‍💻Altcoins possibly up 🎢🎢🎢Greetings fellow humans Today we're looking at the market structure and price action of BITCOIN. I am seeing some sideways action from BTC over the coming days, you can see we are a little bit overbought on the RSI (1HR) I used a red circle to show this. . I am seeing bearish indicators on the longer time frames. We are currently seeing btc work between the ranges of; $37,000 $42,000 (expect that it could go to at least ($44,000) Typically when we see btc reach the 41.5k it pushes onto 45k. However I personally don’t think that will happen in this instance. I believe we will see btc have a sharp pullback over the next 12-72 hours to the 37k area. The US government has accidentally leaked its plans a day before it was set to make an official announcement. For the first time in US history, President Joe Biden was going to release an executive order on cryptocurrency and how it will be regulated in the US on March 9 local time (later tonight on Australian time).We’ve seen an increase of btc.d (dominance) over the last few hours. As that starts to find some support we will see a little bit of an increase in money flow into the altcoins. Remember, nothing is guaranteed, control the controllables. Mogues
by mogues
2
🌊🌊 100% POTENTIAL PROFIT! WAVES TO FOLLOW HISTORIC PATTERN 🌊Right now, Waves is acting in a way similar to many other Altcoins, however Waves typically acts more volatile, if we're going into an alt cycle, Waves will give us an indication first.. always keep your eyes peeled , let me repeat; ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES PEELED 👀👀 as we may be rejected due to what BTC. If we find ourselves closing the Weekly candle above the 0.5 FIB levels ($24.00-25.00) be prepared for an aggresive break out towards previous ATH ($43.00). If you have a look at the RSI & MACD on the 1W time frame you will see both are looking to be changing structure from a bearish trend to bullish trend. I have made markings on each indicator on my chart. Both are potential signs to predict a green future. Waves' founder, is a Ukrainian-born scientist Alexander Ivanov. Waves holds offices in Moscow, Russia. Being a popular currency in both countries, there may be an huge influx of volume due to current events. SHORT TERM: Expect Waves to find a support point around $16-$18 and continue to analyse to see if it continues to test resistance ($18.30) LONG TERM: $43 AND BEYOND!! *Buzz Lightyear Pic* WE ARE ALWAYS WATCHING; BTC/USD, BTC.d, USDT.d Remember, nothing is guaranteed & control the controlables. Mogues
WLong
by mogues