Get started

Cryptocoin

The Asset Bubble Pop In Motion Pt 2Here's part 2! I realize I forgot to talk about Bitcoin dominance, even though I spoke about ETH/BTC in my previous video. So here's the Bitcoin dominance chart: In a bearish scenario for the market, I expect dominance to head back towards 50% and above. Stablecoins are an interesting variable, however. If there is a rise in demand for stablecoins, they may skew this chart a bit. Additionally, here's an interesting study I did about M2 money supply and its relationship to asset bubbles: As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Thank you for your support! -Victor Cobra
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
A Very Important Test (TOTAL Crypto market Cap) For some reason, I can't get TradingView to hide my lines on the charts above when I publish, so I'll just share a screenshot here: It's been a while since I posted one of these. As I mentioned in my recent post, how Bitcoin reacts as it approaches the 50 week MA should be very telling. As I look at TOTAL (the total cryptocurrency market cap), it seems to be already VERY close to testing the 50 week MA (red on the righthand chart) and the 9 week EMA (orange). On the lefthand chart, you can also see that TOTAL is close to touching the 9 month EMA. This is generally a good indicator of bullish or bearish momentum on longer timeframes. At least, this has been the case so far in the history of crypto. Without getting into my philosophical opinions on the market, this is just where we are from a technical standpoint. I would not be surprised at all to see prices get heavily rejected very soon and head back to the lows. Altcoins like XRP and LTC are moving up quite heavily, and these often make their biggest moves before Bitcoin drops. On the bullish side, if TOTAL can break above the pending 9/50 MA cross on the weekly and hold those Moving Averages as support, I think it'll be more likely that the bottom is in. Looking back at 2018, you can see why I'm feeling cautious about this rally. Many others feel the same, which is why maybe this time, it won't play out that way. This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by VictorCobra
6
Bitcoin Must Clear The 50 Week MA To Look BullishFinally, the market is showing some signs of a short term bottom. As I mentioned in my last video, volume has shown that buyers have finally shown up. However, I am still medium-term to long-term bearish until Bitcoin can break above the 50 week MA again (red). As shown on the left side of the chart, Bitcoin had some substantial bounces in 2018 that were met with strong resistance. At the moment, the yellow 100 week MA is serving as support. The 9 week EMA (orange) can also serve as some guidance - currently it lies at $43.6k. The 50 week is all the way up above $47k at the moment, which shows how far Bitcoin can bounce from current levels and still remain under sell pressure. Bearish signals to look out for in the coming weeks: 1) Buyer volume weakening as Bitcoin heads towards the 50 week Moving Average 2) Altcoins and overly hyped projects significantly outperforming Bitcoin during the bounce. 3) Longer term holders beginning to cash out as price moves higher. Bullish signals, in case crypto does not enter a longer term bearish period: 1) Bitcoin starts to outperform other cryptocurrencies for a time, at least until it heads towards the previous high. 2) The 50 week MA does not serve as strong resistance. It's possible we're already close to the top of the bounce, but there is still the possibility of substantial upside, even if the market will make new lows later. If larger players are to begin exiting the space, they need to attract buyers. This would happen if sentiment really flips bullish again. Let's see what happens! -Victor Cobra As always, this is not meant as financial advice. This is purely meant for speculation and entertainment.
BITTREX:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
5
Ethereum Faces Heavy Resistance AheadThis is just a quick update to my ETH chart. I've taken more time off from the market recently to focus on some other things, such as finishing up my master's program. It seems the lower low went lower than I was expecting (I was thinking $2800 first, then a retest of the downtrend). Instead, ETH broke down all the way towards $2k and is finally experiencing a substantial bounce. However, ETH can easily find resistance at the downtrend again, especially considering how overheated the Ultimate Oscillator is already (red at bottom). For me to consider new highs for ETH, it will need to break that downtrend and show continued buying pressure. I do think it's possible to see a new ATH for ETH, perhaps near $6k. But a lot needs to happen first before I begin to feel more bullish about crypto. I am still in "sell the rally" mode, so I may choose to unload some more ETH, should it head back above $3k. I don't feel comfortable reducing my crypto positions much more until I see more confirmation of weakness on longer timeframes. This is not meant as financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by VictorCobra
1
The Great NANO Breakout - Part 4NANO has undergone some transformations over the last year. NANO community and development continue to thrive, after overcoming a challenging spam attack earlier this year. The fast, feeless currency now has Kyle Sherman (the CEO from FlowHub - a payment processor for Weed dispensaries that handles $3 Billion in revenue each year) on their advisory board. The currency ticker has been updated to XNO, to reflect its true global currency status. From here on, I will be referring to the Nano currency as XNO. In addition, XNO can now be received as a no-fee option for Ethereum miner payouts at 2miners. Miners are switching pretty quickly to XNO. More can be seen on the nano website. As for the technicals, XNO has been consolidating for months, but support is slowly rising as it attempts to reclaim the 200 day Moving Average (teal): XNO has proven to be fairly stable, but it does have its moments where it can shoot up extremely quickly. Interestingly enough, these pumps often coincide with local peaks from Bitcoin. As long as the market doesn't correct TOO much further, I think we can see XNO shoot for all-time high. $200 puts XNO at a $26 Billion market cap. At current crypto valuations, that sends XNO to the #10 or #11 spot. While I don't necessarily see XNO as being able to maintain a top 10 spot just yet, I can see it venture into the top 20. If the rest of the market continues up, that means XNO at $200 would probably have it firmly in one of those positions. After all, it's been there before. Despite its potential, XNO has a huge amount of resistance overhead, at $12, $17, and between $30-$40. If XNO breaks all-time high, I will be looking to take some off the table. However, if we do not get to that point, and if the market continues to drop, XNO may need to fall towards the ascending support in the broadening structure on my chart. This wouldn't look particularly good. Let's see what else the Nano foundation has in store! Anyway, that's it from me! This is meant for speculation and entertainment, not financial advice. Previous NANO anlyses are linked at bottom. -Victor Cobra
NLong
by VictorCobra
18
DOT Downside Risk (Polkadot)Polkadot is one of those cryptocurrencies that piqued my interest this past bull market. Unfortunately, the online community is already becoming a ghost town, after the project appeared suddenly in the top 10 by market cap. Many cryptocurrencies are breaking down from their bull market uptrends, but DOT is still above. Should the support fall, I think DOT can eventually head back below $10. Depending on what's going on with the project and ecosystem at that point, I may purchase some at those prices. Let's see! On the upside, if it holds the uptrend, DOT can test the top of the channel once more. This is not meant as financial advice - this is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
BINANCE:DOTUSDShort
by VictorCobra
12
ETH Weakness & Bear Market Projection As I wrote in my last analysis, I have flipped medium-term bearish on crypto. It took a lot of confirmations for me to get here, so it would be hilarious if the market decided to reverse here and make a new high. But regardless, until I see signs of strength, I will generally be posting some speculative projections about where I think the market could be headed next, should the space enter a period of contraction and stagnation. I think there are mounting economic pressures that will cause many firms to deleverage or default over the next year. The above chart shows where I think ETH can go, should sell pressure continue over the next year. In a long term bullish view, ETH can hold the long term uptrend and bounce somewhere near my "value zone." Those are the prices where I might start to rebuy some Ethereum, depending on how the crypto space looks at that point. I am unsure whether or not current crypto prices can be seen again for a long time, if traditional markets start to truly deleverage. Some overly hyped coins have already deflated quite significantly. Take a look at LoopRing. Back in November, I speculated about a return to near $1 levels. This is an example of something that was pushed quite heavily on Reddit and social media, due to its plausible connection with GameStop. But even GME price itself didn't go anywhere all of 2021, while buyers waited for a short squeeze that already happened. Now, Ethereum itself is showing signs of weakness. After breaking down from its bull market uptrend, price has corrected back towards the $3000 level. In doing so, it also broke down from a falling wedge. Over the last few days, it's been retesting the wedge support on low volume. Today, sellers have started to take advantage (as you can see by the higher volume on today's red candle). I do see that funding has been consistently fairly negative for ETH on Binance futures, but I believe trading algos have already caught on to people using negative funding to predict a short squeeze. Here's the current ETH structure, showing that price can still squeeze up towards $3500-3600 and remain in a bearish trend: The weekly is showing declining buyer volume and rather consistent sell volume. In addition, the 9 week EMA (orange) is much closer to the 50 (red) than it was during the Summer of 2021.You can also observe an "Adam & Eve" top formation, with an initial pointy rejection last summer and a more rounded top forming currently: Once the 9 week EMA crosses below the 50, I think upside will be pretty severely limited. The MACD is getting extended into the red, showing no signs of slowing selling momentum. On the monthly, Stoch is drifting down towards the bottom, which in the past confirmed the end of the bullish trend. Additionally, ETH/BTC has not even reached its all-time high from the previous bull market, despite Bitcoin dominance remaining near historically low levels. If ETH/BTC breaks back below this channel, things can get ugly very quickly. But what about the bullish argument? Sure, we're seeing crypto widely advertised to the public. But in that case, where are the buyers? Sharks like Kevin O'Leary are probably taking profits, benefitting from hype that will take a while to defuse. As shown here, I think if ETH ca break back above that wedge and above the downtrend, it can make a final high by retesting the broken bull market uptrend. Hypothetically, this could be near $6k. This is not meant as financial advice - this is meant for speculation and entertainment only. For those who are only beginning in crypto, these periods of uncertainty are the most interesting. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by VictorCobra
7
The Bullish Loopy-Doopring Structure and Downside Risk (LRC)Newer crypto buyers are given a lot of criticism for not looking at token supply or market cap. A coin's market cap is calculated by multiplying its circulating supply by the price. As I just did with CRO, this can help make some comparative market analysis to try and figure out what the "fair value" of something is. This is a concept that exists in other markets, such as real estate, but can be applied to this market in order to make "educated" price predictions. Here's my reasoning. Loopring has about 10x the supply as Omisego (OMG), and is currently ranked higher in market cap. LRC has close to 1.4 Billion coins. This is somewhat of a similar token supply to Uniswap (UNI), which has 1 Billion coins. Uniswap is currently trading at just above $20. So, perhaps, LRC can achieve a price target of $10+ if it breaks into the top 20 by market cap. But I do not think this would be likely to sustain. See OMG from the 2018 peak. These coins have similar use-cases, but LRC seems to have gained a lot of attention recently. OMG faded into obscurity during the bear market and dropped by as much as 99% in value from $30 to $0.30. Yeesh! INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, LRC's recent peak is pretty close to Omisego's 2018 peak, in terms of market cap. Can a layer 2 coin like this achieve a higher market cap? Not so sure. I don't doubt that the protocol is useful, but does the token itself have much value? The ascending broadening wedge on my chart shows expanding volatility as price goes up. It is very rare for something to break out of an ascending broadening pattern to the UPSIDE, but should LRC breach the resistance, it can perhaps make one last run towards $10-20. Otherwise, LRC is in danger of falling significantly back towards the middle of the wedge at least, putting it back in the low $1 range. There is shallow support near $1.90 as well. Perhaps LRC can also test the top of the wedge again at a later date (marked by a speculative green X), at a slightly higher price, once things have cooled off a bit. Holding current levels would also be a good sign, since this is the 2017 all-time high. But one issue here is - even with all the GME-like hype and excitement, it's only resting at the previous ATH? It managed to get to this point in the last bull market for apparently no reason at all. Crypto never ceases to amaze. So far, this bull market has been relatively tame compared to 2017. For instance, XLM went from 1 cent to 90 cents in just several weeks back then. Let's see what happens! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:LRCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
13
Crypto & The GOLD Market Cap Target I can see it now: "Crypto Reaches The Market Cap of Gold - Becoming The Ultimate Store of Value." The very the next day, the market crashes 30%. I believe we need a collective narrative in order to reach peak market euphoria, and the media can help us get there. Big players seem to be preparing for an influx of new investors. Will they come? Meanwhile, the recent drop has put a dent in many people's expectations for $100K+ prices. This scenario is less likely to happen soon if the uptrends marked on this chart are broken. But so far, this looks like a momentary pause, and I think crypto can break out above the long term channel (light blue) for a parabolic run. The GOLD market cap seems like an easy "top" target to me. Gold's market cap is near $12 Trillion at the moment, so that's some pretty substantial upside. I'm too braindead from my studies at the moment to write an in-depth post about this, but I already wrote something on the subject this past summer. Here's the original writeup: This is meant for speculation and entertainment - not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by VictorCobra